事有蹺蹊。前晚，花旗國道指臨收市前十幾分鐘，由升三百幾點突然快速下跌，收市不但升勢不保，仲要埋單跌74點。前日同大家講過我哋嘅鎮報數據之寶「蘋果散戶指數」，亦提示大家個散戶指數喺舊年十月開始嘅跌浪中，第一次呈現入市訊號。
所以我禮拜三就話，如果「今次冇唔同」就可以入市，因為呢個升浪應該會幾勁。
今次純粹「死貓彈」
不過大家要知道，成個一年長熊市嘅低位──恒指10676點嚟計（即係啱啱禮拜一嘅低位）。喺短短嘅3日，恒指已經反彈超過34%。34%喎！
不過因為反彈速度實在太急，我絕對相信呢個純粹屬於「死貓彈」。即係喺國金二期嘅天台拋隻貓落街，都會彈番上十幾廿樓。不過彈完就……
大家可能會問：「你哋個『蘋果散戶指數』唔係好勁o架咩？又話會升？」我想提醒大家，喺「蘋果散戶指數」歷史當中，入市訊號最強嘅一次，係九一一恐怖襲擊之後嘅禮拜。
相信大家都記得，嗰次熊市最終要到03年先至跌完，但如果你有跟住散戶指數買，同埋識得彈到咁上吓落車，係可以贏幾十個百分點。
其實，好多人將呢個拆倉潮嘅源頭，歸咎啲對冲基金。雖然我話唔只佢哋要減低借錢槓桿率，全世界都要。不過，好多人話對冲基金要減低槓桿率嘅最佳理由，係因為投資者要贖回，呢個結論我就有異議。
拆倉潮源頭在投行
我覺得，對冲基金要減低槓桿率嘅最大理由，就係一路以嚟，借子彈畀佢哋掃射嘅最大「軍火供應商」，即係嗰啲投資銀行。相信大家都知道，美林、貝爾斯登被商業銀行吞咗，而大魔、高盛為咗可以被政府接濟，都攞咗商業銀行牌照，投資銀行家變成bank teller。
當投行變商行，最大嘅分別係乜？
如果你話係「公司文化」，我只可派舊膠畀你，仲要係硬嘅。
投行同商行最大嘅分別，除咗啲投行女職員索好多之外（恒生銀行例外），就係手上資金去經營嘅槓桿比率。投行可以做到二、三十倍，商行最多得12倍。所以投行一變商行，就要瘋狂call loan。
今浪非理性拋售，可能又係條例、官僚作怪。
Friday, October 31, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
買得
前日禮拜一，孫柏文話過股市就快見底，不過就叫大家唔好咁快入滙豐（005）。嗰日滙豐就跌14.7%；不過到噚日就已經彈番上去，事件發生嘅速度，快到要用twitter SMS去個網上日誌blog到。
博撈底有指數可跟
點都好，有啲錢真係好難搵，撈底絕對係嗰啲膽大包天、身手不凡嘅人先做得到。不但要唔怕接由高空跌落嚟嘅大菜刀，仲要身手好到接嘅時候，可以捉到個刀柄。不過我覺得，前日七十幾蚊買到滙豐嘅朋友，都要驚埋呢幾日，先至可以舒口氣。
其實，有一個非常重要嘅指數數據，已顯示今個禮拜可入市。呢個指數唔係啲外國嘢，係個百分之百陀地指數，而更重要係根據呢個指數做買賣，贏錢準繩度相當高。
乜嘢指數咁巴閉？咪就係我哋《蘋果日報》嘅「蘋果散戶指數」。
呢個指數係一個典型外國人好鍾意做嘅投資者意向指數（Investor's sentiment indicator），而幅度就會由最樂觀正面（+50），至最悲觀負面（-50）。
一般而言，呢啲投資者意向指數嘅運用方法，都係屬於「反方向」（Contrarian）投資哲學派別。即係「人人睇淡，就入貨；人人睇好，就出貨。」
由98年開始，我哋每個周末做抽樣電話調查，跟住禮拜一公佈。咁多年嚟，散戶最悲觀嘅一次調查，就係喺九一一恐怖襲擊之後嗰次，指數達到（-30.9）。我細心翻查紀錄之後，原來只要指數每次跌穿（-17），跟住你去買升，一個月後就有錢贏。
按往績贏錢機會高
自從04年之後，呢4年嚟「蘋果散戶指數」都未試過跌穿（-17）。直至上個禮拜。如果大家有留意禮拜一嘅《蘋果日報》財經版，就會發現「蘋果散戶指數」係（-19）。根據歷史，即係買得。
啲人話做投資，最危險嘅4個字係「今次唔同 This time is different」。如果你跟咗「蘋果散戶指數」做買賣，就希望今次同以前冇唔同。
Extended reading...
蘋果散戶指數 explained
Here's a chart. Up till April 2006
博撈底有指數可跟
點都好，有啲錢真係好難搵，撈底絕對係嗰啲膽大包天、身手不凡嘅人先做得到。不但要唔怕接由高空跌落嚟嘅大菜刀，仲要身手好到接嘅時候，可以捉到個刀柄。不過我覺得，前日七十幾蚊買到滙豐嘅朋友，都要驚埋呢幾日，先至可以舒口氣。
其實，有一個非常重要嘅指數數據，已顯示今個禮拜可入市。呢個指數唔係啲外國嘢，係個百分之百陀地指數，而更重要係根據呢個指數做買賣，贏錢準繩度相當高。
乜嘢指數咁巴閉？咪就係我哋《蘋果日報》嘅「蘋果散戶指數」。
呢個指數係一個典型外國人好鍾意做嘅投資者意向指數（Investor's sentiment indicator），而幅度就會由最樂觀正面（+50），至最悲觀負面（-50）。
一般而言，呢啲投資者意向指數嘅運用方法，都係屬於「反方向」（Contrarian）投資哲學派別。即係「人人睇淡，就入貨；人人睇好，就出貨。」
由98年開始，我哋每個周末做抽樣電話調查，跟住禮拜一公佈。咁多年嚟，散戶最悲觀嘅一次調查，就係喺九一一恐怖襲擊之後嗰次，指數達到（-30.9）。我細心翻查紀錄之後，原來只要指數每次跌穿（-17），跟住你去買升，一個月後就有錢贏。
按往績贏錢機會高
自從04年之後，呢4年嚟「蘋果散戶指數」都未試過跌穿（-17）。直至上個禮拜。如果大家有留意禮拜一嘅《蘋果日報》財經版，就會發現「蘋果散戶指數」係（-19）。根據歷史，即係買得。
啲人話做投資，最危險嘅4個字係「今次唔同 This time is different」。如果你跟咗「蘋果散戶指數」做買賣，就希望今次同以前冇唔同。
--------------------------
Extended reading...
蘋果散戶指數 explained
Here's a chart. Up till April 2006
宣揚中華廚藝...
Restaurant closed after dead deer found in kitchen
Oct 27 09:04 PM US/Eastern
HAMBURG, N.Y. (AP) - Health officials shut down a suburban Buffalo restaurant after an inspector found employees butchering a dead deer inside the business. Erie County Health Department officials said they got a tip Friday about a dead deer in the China King restaurant in the town of Hamburg, just south of Buffalo.
An inspector soon arrived and saw the deer being butchered in the kitchen.
State health laws prohibit butchering an animal inside a restaurant.
Officials don't know whether the deer had been killed by a hunter or a vehicle. They said there was no indication the deer meat was served to any customers.
The message on the restaurant's answering machine Monday says it was closed because of "family emergencies."
Monday, October 27, 2008
滙豐卒之買得？
上個禮拜五，孫柏文卒之感受得到啲「大行」分析員嘅說話，對市場、股價影響力比自己強些少。大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎，應該記得我曾建議過「一注獨沽賣滙豐」。
建議當日，即係舊年7月30日，滙豐賣140港元一股。我話過滙豐一定要對手上、當時估值500億美元嘅次按債券，價值上要重新評估，咁做對公司股價一定有壓力。亦提供當時被鬧到狗血淋頭，之後睇番尚算保守嘅目標價 112.5港元一股。不過嗰日滙豐股價升。
我記得次按風暴一路打落去時，有好多我識嘅滙豐股東，同我講到滙豐時，就算我如何用數據分析，佢哋最後都會重複又重複咁同自己講，我之後形容為滙豐股東嘅護身咒語──「滙豐派息高！」
舊年12月12日，我又寫過一篇「滙豐取消派息？」嘅文章。話滙豐為保手上資金，可能要學當時宣佈取消派息嘅UBS。不過嗰日滙豐股價冇乜點郁。上個禮拜五，啲分析員走出嚟話：「滙豐對於手上現在估值為300億美元嘅次按債券，實在係太樂觀，要大幅貶值。不過如果貶值至到較為合理水平，滙豐嘅資本就會降至同其他要英國政府注入資金嘅銀行一樣。派息自然凍過水，減一半。」
就係咁，特區股市嗰堵「跌穿一百蚊，我就會買！」嘅滙豐股價血肉城牆，一擊即破。亦令我今個周末最常聽到嘅問題就係：「滙豐到沙士價，買得未？」
等埋禮拜三至扑槌
我嘅答案係：「等多兩日，禮拜三決定。」
對冲基金贖回潮雖然就快完，不過未完。上個禮拜五，CNBC訪問UBS嘅Art Cashin，佢話股市跌勢應該喺呢幾日內有個了斷，但究竟呢個「了斷」係咩樣，佢就話唔知。對上一次Art Cashin咁講，喺02年花旗國股市見底之前嗰個禮拜。
想買嘅人，不如等埋呢幾日。
建議當日，即係舊年7月30日，滙豐賣140港元一股。我話過滙豐一定要對手上、當時估值500億美元嘅次按債券，價值上要重新評估，咁做對公司股價一定有壓力。亦提供當時被鬧到狗血淋頭，之後睇番尚算保守嘅目標價 112.5港元一股。不過嗰日滙豐股價升。
我記得次按風暴一路打落去時，有好多我識嘅滙豐股東，同我講到滙豐時，就算我如何用數據分析，佢哋最後都會重複又重複咁同自己講，我之後形容為滙豐股東嘅護身咒語──「滙豐派息高！」
舊年12月12日，我又寫過一篇「滙豐取消派息？」嘅文章。話滙豐為保手上資金，可能要學當時宣佈取消派息嘅UBS。不過嗰日滙豐股價冇乜點郁。上個禮拜五，啲分析員走出嚟話：「滙豐對於手上現在估值為300億美元嘅次按債券，實在係太樂觀，要大幅貶值。不過如果貶值至到較為合理水平，滙豐嘅資本就會降至同其他要英國政府注入資金嘅銀行一樣。派息自然凍過水，減一半。」
就係咁，特區股市嗰堵「跌穿一百蚊，我就會買！」嘅滙豐股價血肉城牆，一擊即破。亦令我今個周末最常聽到嘅問題就係：「滙豐到沙士價，買得未？」
等埋禮拜三至扑槌
我嘅答案係：「等多兩日，禮拜三決定。」
對冲基金贖回潮雖然就快完，不過未完。上個禮拜五，CNBC訪問UBS嘅Art Cashin，佢話股市跌勢應該喺呢幾日內有個了斷，但究竟呢個「了斷」係咩樣，佢就話唔知。對上一次Art Cashin咁講，喺02年花旗國股市見底之前嗰個禮拜。
想買嘅人，不如等埋呢幾日。
So close to buying time...
As a perma bear... It feels weird when there is a whole lot of people more pessimistic than I.
Really strange.
But let this dramatic ending occur.
Lets be ready.
Really strange.
But let this dramatic ending occur.
Lets be ready.
R.I.P. HK Krispy Kreme
我喺美國嘅時候係好鍾意食Krispy Kreme...
不過番香港之後，都冇去幫襯過...
點解？廢Q事食左之後又上癮 hahahahahah
點都好... RIP HK Krispy Kreme
其實，我以前都有炒過呢間公司嘅股票... 上市時簡直係神話股...
不過盈利增長一因過份開舖而放慢，就會即刻卑人係咁拋售...
不過番香港之後，都冇去幫襯過...
點解？廢Q事食左之後又上癮 hahahahahah
點都好... RIP HK Krispy Kreme
Krispy Kreme 清 盤
5 分 店 即 時 執 笠
Krispy Kreme 甜 圈 公 司 宣 佈 清 盤 。
清 盤 潮 不 絕 ！ 在 香 港 開 業 約 2 年 、 擁 有 7 間 分 店 的 美 國 甜 圈 店 Krispy Kreme 宣 佈 清 盤 ， 位 於 銅 鑼 灣 、 旺 角 、 中 環 、 觀 塘 及 元 朗 的 分 店 暫 時 結 業 。
至 於 位 於 其 餘 兩 間 設 於 香 港 國 際 機 場 的 分 店 ， 則 營 業 至 另 行 通 知 為 止 ， 有 消 息 指 ， 機 場 分 店 將 會 在 兩 星 期 後 結 業 。
有 員 工 透 露 ， 7 間 分 店 的 負 責 人 ， 下 午 將 會 商 討 對 策 。
該 公 司 表 示 ， 近 月 曾 為 公 司 尋 找 買 家 ， 但 未 能 成 功 ， 決 定 清 盤 。 發 言 人 指 出 ， 在 香 港 經 營 生 意 成 本 高 ， 難 以 應 付 。
董 事 對 要 作 出 清 盤 決 定 感 到 非 常 失 望 ， 但 為 免 僱 員 及 債 權 人 蒙 受 更 大 損 失 ， 決 定 結 業 。
Krispy Kreme 已 委 任 獨 立 財 務 顧 問 ， 在 下 月 12 日 舉 行 債 權 人 會 議 ， 以 便 決 定 如 何 處 理 公 司 資 產 及 僱 員 與 債 權 人 的 申 索 事 宜 。
其實，我以前都有炒過呢間公司嘅股票... 上市時簡直係神話股...
不過盈利增長一因過份開舖而放慢，就會即刻卑人係咁拋售...
Saturday, October 25, 2008
見到標普 差佬會賴尿
噚日凌晨時分，孫柏文睇電視睇到怒火衝天，忍唔住咁寄咗封電郵畀班寫嘢嘅兄弟姊妹。電郵中得一句，就係：「聽日我去報警！」
究竟睇到啲乜，令我火屎都嚟埋？就係花旗國電視台，不斷報道花旗國國會開聽證會，調查信貸評級公司呢幾年啲累死全世界嘅信貸評級。其中講到啲信貸評級公司，究竟憑乜嘢機制定出評級時，啲國會議員就公開咗標準普爾裏面，兩名員工嘅短訊對答。
員工甲：「講真，我哋為呢批產品出嘅評級簡直離譜。」
員工乙：「我知。條方程式連一半風險都冇包括在內。」
員工甲：「我哋根本唔應該為呢批產品出評級。」
員工乙：「乜嘢狗屎垃圾攞嚟，我哋都會為佢哋評級，來者不拒。就連係一頭黃牛出嘅結構產品，我哋都會評評級。」
員工甲：「呢單生意風險好高咁。我作為負責小組成員，對於批准呢個評級真係唔舒服。」
以上就係佢哋不誠實搵笨嘅鐵證！
以前細個同老竇去跑馬，有次佢隻馬出賽，佢睇完晨操後同個練馬師講：「隻馬狀態好，評分又着數，今次贏得喎。」但練馬師就話隻馬未得，所以老竇連馬場都冇入，得番孫媽媽、我家姐同我。
點知隻馬一出閘由頭放到尾，仲要獨贏賠率三十幾倍咁贏。佢走去同個練馬師講：「You are either incompetent or a crook（一係你無能一係你奸）。」
表面證供足入罪
今次，標普已證明佢哋唔係無能。講真，差佬嗰個商業罪案調查科呢排已經好勁，將之前有份發放「明星生活照」，繼而被揭發申請信用卡填錯表嘅鍾亦天搞掂咗。
呢啲魚毛蝦毛都拉得咁起勁，仲唔去標普拉人？唔夠錢，唔夠資源咪去立法會問涂謹申攞！佢呢個電車男乜嘢器材都批o架。
事實1：標普使用電腦計算信貸評級。
事實2：標普不誠實咁計算信貸評級。
事實3：標普不誠實使用電腦。
不過，睇怕商罪科黃福全都冇膽，唔好話拉人，連標普office棟大廈個門都唔敢入。
如果差佬敢拉不誠實使用電腦嘅標普人，孫柏文就去尖東跳海！仲要游去香港島！
究竟睇到啲乜，令我火屎都嚟埋？就係花旗國電視台，不斷報道花旗國國會開聽證會，調查信貸評級公司呢幾年啲累死全世界嘅信貸評級。其中講到啲信貸評級公司，究竟憑乜嘢機制定出評級時，啲國會議員就公開咗標準普爾裏面，兩名員工嘅短訊對答。
員工甲：「講真，我哋為呢批產品出嘅評級簡直離譜。」
員工乙：「我知。條方程式連一半風險都冇包括在內。」
員工甲：「我哋根本唔應該為呢批產品出評級。」
員工乙：「乜嘢狗屎垃圾攞嚟，我哋都會為佢哋評級，來者不拒。就連係一頭黃牛出嘅結構產品，我哋都會評評級。」
員工甲：「呢單生意風險好高咁。我作為負責小組成員，對於批准呢個評級真係唔舒服。」
以上就係佢哋不誠實搵笨嘅鐵證！
以前細個同老竇去跑馬，有次佢隻馬出賽，佢睇完晨操後同個練馬師講：「隻馬狀態好，評分又着數，今次贏得喎。」但練馬師就話隻馬未得，所以老竇連馬場都冇入，得番孫媽媽、我家姐同我。
點知隻馬一出閘由頭放到尾，仲要獨贏賠率三十幾倍咁贏。佢走去同個練馬師講：「You are either incompetent or a crook（一係你無能一係你奸）。」
表面證供足入罪
今次，標普已證明佢哋唔係無能。講真，差佬嗰個商業罪案調查科呢排已經好勁，將之前有份發放「明星生活照」，繼而被揭發申請信用卡填錯表嘅鍾亦天搞掂咗。
呢啲魚毛蝦毛都拉得咁起勁，仲唔去標普拉人？唔夠錢，唔夠資源咪去立法會問涂謹申攞！佢呢個電車男乜嘢器材都批o架。
事實1：標普使用電腦計算信貸評級。
事實2：標普不誠實咁計算信貸評級。
事實3：標普不誠實使用電腦。
不過，睇怕商罪科黃福全都冇膽，唔好話拉人，連標普office棟大廈個門都唔敢入。
如果差佬敢拉不誠實使用電腦嘅標普人，孫柏文就去尖東跳海！仲要游去香港島！
Thursday, October 23, 2008
2008 Standard & Poor = 2002 Arthur Andersen
Smoking gun time... From the New York Times...
It is time for us, the good people in the media to ask. Why the fuck is the Hong Kong govt still taking rating from these jokers seriously.
And why are they making us take these rating up the arse, through our MPF (page 4)(中文版)?
係時候兜口兜面問曾蔭權、曾俊華、(and my current favourite)迫金局主席范鴻齡，點解要我地D錢卑 S＆P 出嘅 rating 強姦？
Devan Sharma, president of S&P, said in a written statement, “It is by now clear that a number of the assumptions we used in preparing our ratings on mortgage-backed securities issued between the last quarter of 2005 and the middle of 2007 did not work.”
John A. Yarmuth, a Democrat from Kentucky, chose to read aloud from an instant-message conversation between two S&P employees in the firm’s structured product division.
Official 1: By the way, that deal is ridiculous
Official 2: I know, right. The model definitely doesn't capture half the risk.
Official 1: We should not be rating it
Official 2: We rate every deal. It could be structured by cows and we would rate it
Official 1: There is a lot of risk associated with it. I personally don’t feel comfy signing off as a committee member.
It is time for us, the good people in the media to ask. Why the fuck is the Hong Kong govt still taking rating from these jokers seriously.
And why are they making us take these rating up the arse, through our MPF (page 4)(中文版)?
係時候兜口兜面問曾蔭權、曾俊華、(and my current favourite)迫金局主席范鴻齡，點解要我地D錢卑 S＆P 出嘅 rating 強姦？
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
中信泰富 澳元概念股？
原本今日孫柏文睇到，對於中大學生報因為刊登之前被評為不雅嘅文章，被高等法院法官裁定為冇犯法，心情幾好。仲要聽到有評論員分析法官判詞之後話：「即係法官叫中大學生報，你哋毋須要再攞嗰期嘅報紙畀嗰班低B仔淫審處再次審淫。淫審處、淫審條例，通通都係廢。」
低回報投資都出事
講真，我都等緊其他因為低B仔淫審處製造出來嘅不公義，被推翻。我今日大聲哭訴：「幾時推翻Kelly Brook事件？幾時停止選擇性行刑？幾時結束對報業嘅白色恐怖？」
不過，就算有片刻心情幾好，一睇番關於中信泰富（267）輸大錢嘅新聞，就會即時沮喪。中信泰富為嗰少少回報輸大錢，仲上埋報紙頭條，大字標題話「中信泰富、炒燶外滙、勁蝕155億」。
大家要記得，中信泰富喺停牌宣佈呢段消息前，公司總市值都係三百幾億。所以噚日，中信泰富股價咁就冇咗一半，都不足為奇。
一個最多只得幾個百分點回報嘅投資項目，根據民主黨甘乃威等硬膠立法會議員，應該屬於「好安全」、「好穩陣」嘅投資，最後要輸大錢冇理由係買家錯！
所以強烈呼籲，中信泰富主席榮智健即刻去搵甘乃威登記，記得冇理由係買家錯！
講真，甘乃威都買咗某家銀行嘅衍生工具，如果輸錢，甘乃威一定話冇理由係買家錯！
世上只有媽媽好
其實中信泰富出事，我先至領略到今時今日特區中，最睇死聯儲局伯南克為首嘅「美元紙幣狂魔集團」，唔係特區裏面嘅白銀戰隊成員，而係中信泰富。有國家國務院支持都係咁，真係冇嘢好講。
不過有樣嘢我真係想知，究竟中信泰富以前靠呢啲accumulator衍生工具贏幾多次、幾多錢，個心先至咁雄，去做最後呢次蝕155億嘅交易？
最後想唱一句：「世上只有媽媽好……有媽的孩子像個寶……」
低回報投資都出事
講真，我都等緊其他因為低B仔淫審處製造出來嘅不公義，被推翻。我今日大聲哭訴：「幾時推翻Kelly Brook事件？幾時停止選擇性行刑？幾時結束對報業嘅白色恐怖？」
不過，就算有片刻心情幾好，一睇番關於中信泰富（267）輸大錢嘅新聞，就會即時沮喪。中信泰富為嗰少少回報輸大錢，仲上埋報紙頭條，大字標題話「中信泰富、炒燶外滙、勁蝕155億」。
大家要記得，中信泰富喺停牌宣佈呢段消息前，公司總市值都係三百幾億。所以噚日，中信泰富股價咁就冇咗一半，都不足為奇。
一個最多只得幾個百分點回報嘅投資項目，根據民主黨甘乃威等硬膠立法會議員，應該屬於「好安全」、「好穩陣」嘅投資，最後要輸大錢冇理由係買家錯！
所以強烈呼籲，中信泰富主席榮智健即刻去搵甘乃威登記，記得冇理由係買家錯！
講真，甘乃威都買咗某家銀行嘅衍生工具，如果輸錢，甘乃威一定話冇理由係買家錯！
世上只有媽媽好
其實中信泰富出事，我先至領略到今時今日特區中，最睇死聯儲局伯南克為首嘅「美元紙幣狂魔集團」，唔係特區裏面嘅白銀戰隊成員，而係中信泰富。有國家國務院支持都係咁，真係冇嘢好講。
不過有樣嘢我真係想知，究竟中信泰富以前靠呢啲accumulator衍生工具贏幾多次、幾多錢，個心先至咁雄，去做最後呢次蝕155億嘅交易？
最後想唱一句：「世上只有媽媽好……有媽的孩子像個寶……」
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
四級投資者 你係邊級？
相信大家同孫柏文一樣，都聽過啲做嘢歷久冇事嘅人講過：「呢個世界做乜嘢都好，最危險就係識啲唔識啲。識嘅嘢得半桶水走去做，遲早出事。」呢個簡單智慧，當然適用於投資之上。
不過，除咗以上「唔好半桶水」之外，由我細細個鍾意睇跑馬開始，早已聽過冠軍練馬師、馬評家董驃叔叔講過：「馬場專收叻仔。」如果我冇解讀錯，即係如果你叻得滯，始終會有一日出事。呢個見解我覺得連股票市場都啱用。
其實，除咗以上兩個級別嘅投資者，仲可以加多兩級，變成有系統嘅《金手指》四級投資者分級制。
最低級就係「唔識」，之後就係「半桶水」，跟住就有「識」，最後亦係最高級嘅有「叻仔」。
用之前雷曼迷債做例子。
最低級例如孫媽媽呢類「唔識」嘅投資者，不單止唔識乜嘢係迷債，仲要知道自己唔識，點sell畀佢都唔會買。所以喺雷曼迷債事件中冇事。
「叻仔」級輸身家
跟住就有啲「半桶水」投資者，聽到有啲乜嘢信貸評級公司，話呢啲迷債嘅評級好高、好穩陣，就將自己一大部份嘅身家買落去。結果雷曼執笠，迷債出事，政客登記，上街示威。
嗰班「識」嘅投資者，當然好似啲「半桶水」投資者咁，聽過信貸評級公司畀嘅評級。但佢哋就係因為識，知道呢幾年啲評級漸出問題，又聽過雷曼可能有事，所以當銀行職員sell啲迷債時，佢哋只要反問番幾個關於迷債嘅技術性問題，令啲銀行職員覺得：「都係搵番啲半桶水投資者算數。」就可以成功擊退啲職員，逃過一劫。
相信大家都會問：「咁啲『叻仔』級投資者呢？」叫得做「叻仔」，就當然聽過雷曼可能有事，又一早唔信啲信貸評級。不過同佢講雷曼有事，佢就會話：「有事？聯儲局、伯南克都會救啦！系統性風險呀！就係因為有好多人睇唔到呢個政策點，所以迷債需求一定被壓低，回報同值博率一定高！」之後，仲因為銀行貸款利息成本，比迷債嘅回報少，叻仔就有咁多借咁多，樓都押埋，諗住嚟次利息套戥。最後雷曼執笠，輸身家。
咁你又係邊級投資者？
不過，除咗以上「唔好半桶水」之外，由我細細個鍾意睇跑馬開始，早已聽過冠軍練馬師、馬評家董驃叔叔講過：「馬場專收叻仔。」如果我冇解讀錯，即係如果你叻得滯，始終會有一日出事。呢個見解我覺得連股票市場都啱用。
其實，除咗以上兩個級別嘅投資者，仲可以加多兩級，變成有系統嘅《金手指》四級投資者分級制。
最低級就係「唔識」，之後就係「半桶水」，跟住就有「識」，最後亦係最高級嘅有「叻仔」。
用之前雷曼迷債做例子。
最低級例如孫媽媽呢類「唔識」嘅投資者，不單止唔識乜嘢係迷債，仲要知道自己唔識，點sell畀佢都唔會買。所以喺雷曼迷債事件中冇事。
「叻仔」級輸身家
跟住就有啲「半桶水」投資者，聽到有啲乜嘢信貸評級公司，話呢啲迷債嘅評級好高、好穩陣，就將自己一大部份嘅身家買落去。結果雷曼執笠，迷債出事，政客登記，上街示威。
嗰班「識」嘅投資者，當然好似啲「半桶水」投資者咁，聽過信貸評級公司畀嘅評級。但佢哋就係因為識，知道呢幾年啲評級漸出問題，又聽過雷曼可能有事，所以當銀行職員sell啲迷債時，佢哋只要反問番幾個關於迷債嘅技術性問題，令啲銀行職員覺得：「都係搵番啲半桶水投資者算數。」就可以成功擊退啲職員，逃過一劫。
相信大家都會問：「咁啲『叻仔』級投資者呢？」叫得做「叻仔」，就當然聽過雷曼可能有事，又一早唔信啲信貸評級。不過同佢講雷曼有事，佢就會話：「有事？聯儲局、伯南克都會救啦！系統性風險呀！就係因為有好多人睇唔到呢個政策點，所以迷債需求一定被壓低，回報同值博率一定高！」之後，仲因為銀行貸款利息成本，比迷債嘅回報少，叻仔就有咁多借咁多，樓都押埋，諗住嚟次利息套戥。最後雷曼執笠，輸身家。
咁你又係邊級投資者？
Just a reminder on Lehman's CDS settlement
Remember how the auction to determine the payout on CDS that protects one against Lehman's default?
And it was determined that Lehman's debt worth was 9 cents on the dollar?
Therefore the payout has to be 91% of Lehman's debt?
The estimated payout is US$250b+...
Well. The auction was held that day. But pay out is tmr. 21st of October.
Lets see whose going to pay up... And whose not.
Here's an interesting piece over at Roubini's site about this pay out tmr.
Will they 'net out' so that actual amount passed over is only US$6b... Or will counterparties fail leading to another cascade of credit crisis?
I will say this. Buying puts @ 3:57pm tmr sounds tempting. Just to punt on counter party failures...
But if on Wednesday morning, no counterparty went to finance heaven, I am buying calls and holding on to them till the US presidential election.
And yes, I will also add to my silver positions too.
And it was determined that Lehman's debt worth was 9 cents on the dollar?
Therefore the payout has to be 91% of Lehman's debt?
The estimated payout is US$250b+...
Well. The auction was held that day. But pay out is tmr. 21st of October.
Lets see whose going to pay up... And whose not.
Here's an interesting piece over at Roubini's site about this pay out tmr.
Will they 'net out' so that actual amount passed over is only US$6b... Or will counterparties fail leading to another cascade of credit crisis?
I will say this. Buying puts @ 3:57pm tmr sounds tempting. Just to punt on counter party failures...
But if on Wednesday morning, no counterparty went to finance heaven, I am buying calls and holding on to them till the US presidential election.
And yes, I will also add to my silver positions too.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Pitiful...
As the Hedge Funds unwind. Things get whacked.
A lot of European hedge funds bought silver. And a lot of them were based in London.
Supposedly this is happening (from naked capitalism)...
The US had huge problems with broker-dealers in the 1930s...Enter the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This is one piece of depression era legislation that survives and thank the Good Lord for that.
What the broker dealer act does is (a) ring fence the US broker dealer and (b) limit the amount that the broker dealer can borrow against your securities and the amount of collateral it may take.
I am hardly a lawyer – so take the bush lawyer caveat – but the way it works is that the broker dealer may not borrow against your securities to finance their own business, only client business. So Lehman Brothers US broker dealer could take collateral of securities and if they had 100 million out on client margin loans the most that they could raise using client securities is 100 million and not a brass razoo more. This is really important because it meant that client assets were not used to finance Lehman’s disastrous commercial real estate and other businesses.
Moreover when you deposit a million dollars at the broker dealer and give them the right to repledge those securities they can only rehypothecate 140 percent of your outstanding balances...
So (provided the broker is not acting criminally) you should get the bulk of your money back if the broker dealer fails. And provided the capital requirements are adequate (and they mostly are) the broker dealer won’t fail. Even the Drexel Burnham Broker Dealer did not fail....
The result. Whilst Lehman brothers went bust Lehman US broker dealer did not. This pretty well saved the US hedge fund industry.
Europe however was a different story. Lehman Europe failed – and the clients of the European broker dealer (read a good proportion of the London hedge fund community) are now queuing as unsecured creditors of Lehman. Many funds have folded. Far more have been nicked. Whilst the US hedge fund business is currently looking dazed, confused and a little problematic the UK business is on life support.
In some sense this is the end of the City of London.
So even if your hedge fund bet on the right things... Because Lehman failed, your hedge fund still got screwed.
Amazing that these hedge funds didn't want their assets ring fenced. I guess it is the same mentality as everyone who trusted Lehman as a counter party (yes, including mini bond holders)...
They all believed "...Lehman Can't fail..."
Friday, October 17, 2008
買佢冇事博倍升
「唔係真係會有事？」記得喺2000年dotcom泡沫爆破時，孫柏文仲喺花旗國，亦有炒股票。當年毋須日日睇住個市，淨係聽吓我啲去咗加州搞高科技嘅舊同學口中嘅消息，都知道有好多間公司會出事。
絕望與希望間搵食
絕大部份時候，舊同學講嘅有問題公司，我都會答：「抵佢啦！都唔知間公司為乜？」
不過，有時聽到喺泡沫最瘋狂時，如日方中嘅公司都會有事，我都會忍唔住話：「唔係真係會有事？」
講真，喺科網泡沫嗰一役，其中一個我見到關於炒賣股票嘅現象，就係當市場對於一間公司能否繼續存在開始出現懷疑態度，股價波動可以好大。因為市場投資者，會不斷喺對公司完全絕望同些少希望間掙扎。
如果能夠捕捉時機，喺市場對公司嘅絕望同希望做炒賣，利潤可以相當豐厚。近期最佳例子，就係啲花旗國銀行股。
今時今日特區股市中，有兩隻股票喺舊年「資金自由行」泡沫中被人進取買入，因為行業同公司都被人感覺係如日方中。呢兩隻股票就係製造紙張產品嘅玖龍紙業（2689）同理文造紙（2314）。
信貸緊張難借新錢
兩間公司嘅股價，舊年最瘋狂時炒到廿幾三十蚊一股。到噚日，得番一兩蚊。能夠解釋股價大幅下滑嘅最直接原因，就係佢哋兩間公司都因為對上幾年喺全球信貸泡沫中，過份借貸。
現在對紙張產品嘅需求將會出現下滑嘅情況下，已經大鑊。最弊，兩間公司都有好多短期債務，當年諗住到期可以借新錢還，今時今日信貸緊張，令投資者唔知嗰兩間公司可以點算好，所以就令到嗰兩間公司嘅股價，跌到我覺得已經反映市場認為佢哋可能會出事。
問題就係，兩間公司同時有事？唔係冇可能。不過以現在股價水平，可以小注怡情咁博博──博佢哋有人救。
當然如果喺兩間中揀，就要問問自己邊間被打救，對「救生員」嘅成本低啲。就係喺咁嘅時候，大陸政府先至可建立順我者昌嘅形象。玖紙主席張茵為國家政策勞動法，曾經組織反對勢力。你話點搞？
絕望與希望間搵食
絕大部份時候，舊同學講嘅有問題公司，我都會答：「抵佢啦！都唔知間公司為乜？」
不過，有時聽到喺泡沫最瘋狂時，如日方中嘅公司都會有事，我都會忍唔住話：「唔係真係會有事？」
講真，喺科網泡沫嗰一役，其中一個我見到關於炒賣股票嘅現象，就係當市場對於一間公司能否繼續存在開始出現懷疑態度，股價波動可以好大。因為市場投資者，會不斷喺對公司完全絕望同些少希望間掙扎。
如果能夠捕捉時機，喺市場對公司嘅絕望同希望做炒賣，利潤可以相當豐厚。近期最佳例子，就係啲花旗國銀行股。
今時今日特區股市中，有兩隻股票喺舊年「資金自由行」泡沫中被人進取買入，因為行業同公司都被人感覺係如日方中。呢兩隻股票就係製造紙張產品嘅玖龍紙業（2689）同理文造紙（2314）。
信貸緊張難借新錢
兩間公司嘅股價，舊年最瘋狂時炒到廿幾三十蚊一股。到噚日，得番一兩蚊。能夠解釋股價大幅下滑嘅最直接原因，就係佢哋兩間公司都因為對上幾年喺全球信貸泡沫中，過份借貸。
現在對紙張產品嘅需求將會出現下滑嘅情況下，已經大鑊。最弊，兩間公司都有好多短期債務，當年諗住到期可以借新錢還，今時今日信貸緊張，令投資者唔知嗰兩間公司可以點算好，所以就令到嗰兩間公司嘅股價，跌到我覺得已經反映市場認為佢哋可能會出事。
問題就係，兩間公司同時有事？唔係冇可能。不過以現在股價水平，可以小注怡情咁博博──博佢哋有人救。
當然如果喺兩間中揀，就要問問自己邊間被打救，對「救生員」嘅成本低啲。就係喺咁嘅時候，大陸政府先至可建立順我者昌嘅形象。玖紙主席張茵為國家政策勞動法，曾經組織反對勢力。你話點搞？
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Follow up on 理文造紙 (2314)
Ok.
理文造紙 (2314) came out after the market closed and said that they are selling a subsidiary for HK$200 mil.
The reason I bought today was because I knew yesterday night that they called a press conference for today at 5:00pm, "to talk about on going operations"
Which coming right after their credit downgrade, I predicted would be about solving their liquidity issues.
So with this sale to raise money, see how the market will react on Monday.
Hopefully some will price in the fact that this is the first sale. More sales will come and they might not price in bankruptcy for the company.
理文造紙 (2314) came out after the market closed and said that they are selling a subsidiary for HK$200 mil.
The reason I bought today was because I knew yesterday night that they called a press conference for today at 5:00pm, "to talk about on going operations"
Which coming right after their credit downgrade, I predicted would be about solving their liquidity issues.
So with this sale to raise money, see how the market will react on Monday.
Hopefully some will price in the fact that this is the first sale. More sales will come and they might not price in bankruptcy for the company.
Donald Tsang vs. Joe Yam
It looks like a real nasty fight is brewing between the HKMA and the HKSAR Govt.
It is as if GW Bush is going to battle against Ben Bernanke...
umm...
A lot of colourful details about the conflict between HKMA CEO Yam and HKSAR CE Tsang emerging. All stemming from the political backlash and counter backlash of the Lehman 'Mini Bond' affair.
Anyhow, as Tsang forces banks to repay part of what investors lost on Lehman, Yam is behind the banks. Yam is encouraging the banks to repeat the two finest words the British Empire gave to its colonies - "Fuck Off".
So Tsang is saying, "Everyone gets old, even Yam" implying Yam should follow the terms of his contract and leave next year.
And Yam returns with a piece on his blog about the risk and Moral Hazard with the government's 100% guarantee (last paragraph) on all HK deposits. And staying ever so on message with the labeling of "temporary", as if a taunt to the govt implying that the guarantee will be anything but temporary.
Wow. intra govt struggle with our banking system at stake.
Shit.
It is as if GW Bush is going to battle against Ben Bernanke...
umm...
A lot of colourful details about the conflict between HKMA CEO Yam and HKSAR CE Tsang emerging. All stemming from the political backlash and counter backlash of the Lehman 'Mini Bond' affair.
Anyhow, as Tsang forces banks to repay part of what investors lost on Lehman, Yam is behind the banks. Yam is encouraging the banks to repeat the two finest words the British Empire gave to its colonies - "Fuck Off".
So Tsang is saying, "Everyone gets old, even Yam" implying Yam should follow the terms of his contract and leave next year.
And Yam returns with a piece on his blog about the risk and Moral Hazard with the government's 100% guarantee (last paragraph) on all HK deposits. And staying ever so on message with the labeling of "temporary", as if a taunt to the govt implying that the guarantee will be anything but temporary.
Wow. intra govt struggle with our banking system at stake.
Shit.
Just bought stock at 3:55pm
Just bought 理文造紙 (2314) @ HK$2.18
理文 and 玖龍 (2689) are both priced for bankruptcy. Where they cannot roll over their loans.
Now... I am not surprised if they are completely screwed. But hard to accept that not even one will survive (through divine/govt/states-bank/private-equity intervention)...
And as a betting man, I won't take a punt on 玖龍, whose CEO publicly opposed 勞動法 the Labour Law in China late last year.
So... 理文 remains. Also it has a press conference today at 500pm. I am sure they will to address their debt/liquidity issue.
If not SELL SELL SELL on Monday hor hor hor
理文 and 玖龍 (2689) are both priced for bankruptcy. Where they cannot roll over their loans.
Now... I am not surprised if they are completely screwed. But hard to accept that not even one will survive (through divine/govt/states-bank/private-equity intervention)...
And as a betting man, I won't take a punt on 玖龍, whose CEO publicly opposed 勞動法 the Labour Law in China late last year.
So... 理文 remains. Also it has a press conference today at 500pm. I am sure they will to address their debt/liquidity issue.
If not SELL SELL SELL on Monday hor hor hor
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
又嚟「八萬五」
一班民粹政客，孫柏文唔講邊個黨，大家心照，多年來不斷要求政府落實「市民嘅第一訴求」。雖然個訴求，係會改變對特區非常重要嘅市場結構，不過因為民粹政客追求已久，所以已達「不會理其他因素，係咪都要」嘅地步。
同一時間，政府又冇足夠民意基礎去反對，所以就啓動官僚機器去起草政策，落實訴求。
金融動盪仍難煞車
點知，喺官僚機器完成起草政策，已放入特首施政報告時，國際金融業大動盪。不過因官僚機器有如火車頭，要煞停談何容易，施政報告嘅讀稿已印萬份，唔通逐份用塗改液改咩？
所以就算特首知道，呢個係改變市場結構嘅最壞一刻，後遺症可能一發不可收拾，都要硬着頭皮宣佈落實訴求。
施政報告被逼落墨
之後政策出台，處處碰釘。出事後，政府為咗要全世界知道佢哋仲有管治能力，無寶不落咁繼續推。最後不但害咗全個特區，傷勢最嚴重嘅仲要係當初政策想幫嘅人。
最無賴嘅係，原先嗰班民粹政客，居然當自己冇要過呢個政策。
97年，「樓價高企」、「無殼蝸牛」嘅民粹哭訴不絕。特首董建華喺當年10月嘅施政報告，宣佈八萬五政策。
今年特首曾蔭權，又喺金融海嘯中面對「在職貧窮」、「可恥薪金」等聲音。
未來嘅歷史學家一定會咁話：「08年最低工資，就係97年八萬五。」
同一時間，政府又冇足夠民意基礎去反對，所以就啓動官僚機器去起草政策，落實訴求。
金融動盪仍難煞車
點知，喺官僚機器完成起草政策，已放入特首施政報告時，國際金融業大動盪。不過因官僚機器有如火車頭，要煞停談何容易，施政報告嘅讀稿已印萬份，唔通逐份用塗改液改咩？
所以就算特首知道，呢個係改變市場結構嘅最壞一刻，後遺症可能一發不可收拾，都要硬着頭皮宣佈落實訴求。
施政報告被逼落墨
之後政策出台，處處碰釘。出事後，政府為咗要全世界知道佢哋仲有管治能力，無寶不落咁繼續推。最後不但害咗全個特區，傷勢最嚴重嘅仲要係當初政策想幫嘅人。
最無賴嘅係，原先嗰班民粹政客，居然當自己冇要過呢個政策。
97年，「樓價高企」、「無殼蝸牛」嘅民粹哭訴不絕。特首董建華喺當年10月嘅施政報告，宣佈八萬五政策。
今年特首曾蔭權，又喺金融海嘯中面對「在職貧窮」、「可恥薪金」等聲音。
未來嘅歷史學家一定會咁話：「08年最低工資，就係97年八萬五。」
Monday, October 13, 2008
仲可以幾大鑊
「世界末日」。
呢幾日，孫柏文從周圍好多人嘅口中，聽到呢四個字。經常聽到人咁講嘅原因，可能因為人以群分、物以類聚，我作為淡友咁耐，身邊都有唔少睇得好淡嘅朋友。不過以21世紀人類科技、醫學昌明、學識智慧，除咗感性唔諗「世界末日」可以發生之外，可唔可以同一時間非常理性地排除呢個可能性？
我作為一個自由市場信徒，「世界末日」呢個概念嘅界定，就不如外判畀人類歷史當中印製得最多嘅書，即係基督教嘅聖經。
金融海嘯可引發饑荒
聖經裏面話過，「世界末日」將會有四位騎士來臨。佢哋代表嘅係瘟疫、戰爭、饑荒同死亡。今日，就同大家分析吓，四環當中之一──饑荒，喺呢個金融海嘯中發生嘅可能性。
全球一體化大家都知，背後其中一個推動一體化嘅動力，就係來自人類將任何產品供應鏈嘅效率，越推越高。
經過發明冷藏科技，更有效嘅運輸系統，變壞機會大幅降低，人類食物就差唔多係最受惠於全球一體化嘅一項產品。
攞特區嚟講，700萬人口食物來自世界不同地方，除有毒奶粉外，價廉物美。不過如果掉轉頭諗，一旦食物嘅供應鏈停頓，我哋呢個700萬人嘅城市，可以捱幾耐？幾耐先會發生暴動？
銀根收緊難以周轉
銀行收緊貸款，大家都知。
試諗吓因為零售店相繼結業，銀行將食物商店同超級市場嘅信用額取消，佢哋要問批發商借貨。
批發商嘅信用額同時一樣被取消，入唔到貨。
運輸公司被拖數，亦因為信用額冇咗，連車隊入油嘅錢都冇。
油站東主被運輸公司拖數，連油站油缸都空空如也。
大家可能會問：「不過以上只係本地問題，貨可以到港，落貨有幾難？」多都唔講，今時今日全球銀行同業拆息不斷推高，原因就係銀行與銀行之間冇晒信任。
相信大家都知道，海上貨運非常依賴Letter of Credit（LC）去運作。Letter of Credit呢個系統要運作，就必須要國際銀行與銀行之間互相信任。一旦銀行互信蒸發，世界各地出入口商之間嘅貿易就會停頓，食物供應鏈都不會例外。
特區政府話會用盡彈藥解決問題，唔通講緊防暴警察？
呢幾日，孫柏文從周圍好多人嘅口中，聽到呢四個字。經常聽到人咁講嘅原因，可能因為人以群分、物以類聚，我作為淡友咁耐，身邊都有唔少睇得好淡嘅朋友。不過以21世紀人類科技、醫學昌明、學識智慧，除咗感性唔諗「世界末日」可以發生之外，可唔可以同一時間非常理性地排除呢個可能性？
我作為一個自由市場信徒，「世界末日」呢個概念嘅界定，就不如外判畀人類歷史當中印製得最多嘅書，即係基督教嘅聖經。
金融海嘯可引發饑荒
聖經裏面話過，「世界末日」將會有四位騎士來臨。佢哋代表嘅係瘟疫、戰爭、饑荒同死亡。今日，就同大家分析吓，四環當中之一──饑荒，喺呢個金融海嘯中發生嘅可能性。
全球一體化大家都知，背後其中一個推動一體化嘅動力，就係來自人類將任何產品供應鏈嘅效率，越推越高。
經過發明冷藏科技，更有效嘅運輸系統，變壞機會大幅降低，人類食物就差唔多係最受惠於全球一體化嘅一項產品。
攞特區嚟講，700萬人口食物來自世界不同地方，除有毒奶粉外，價廉物美。不過如果掉轉頭諗，一旦食物嘅供應鏈停頓，我哋呢個700萬人嘅城市，可以捱幾耐？幾耐先會發生暴動？
銀根收緊難以周轉
銀行收緊貸款，大家都知。
試諗吓因為零售店相繼結業，銀行將食物商店同超級市場嘅信用額取消，佢哋要問批發商借貨。
批發商嘅信用額同時一樣被取消，入唔到貨。
運輸公司被拖數，亦因為信用額冇咗，連車隊入油嘅錢都冇。
油站東主被運輸公司拖數，連油站油缸都空空如也。
大家可能會問：「不過以上只係本地問題，貨可以到港，落貨有幾難？」多都唔講，今時今日全球銀行同業拆息不斷推高，原因就係銀行與銀行之間冇晒信任。
相信大家都知道，海上貨運非常依賴Letter of Credit（LC）去運作。Letter of Credit呢個系統要運作，就必須要國際銀行與銀行之間互相信任。一旦銀行互信蒸發，世界各地出入口商之間嘅貿易就會停頓，食物供應鏈都不會例外。
特區政府話會用盡彈藥解決問題，唔通講緊防暴警察？
Sold my calls
Sold my callable bulls on HSI and HSCEI today, just before the noon close.
I really thought they were going to be recalled.
But good thing they didn't reach the trigger point.
Anyhow, sold for 40%+ and 80%+ return.
I really thought they were going to be recalled.
But good thing they didn't reach the trigger point.
Anyhow, sold for 40%+ and 80%+ return.
Interesting thoughts from 會計仔
會計仔 wrote about the current economic turmoil. Definitely worth a read.
He noted many things in his 筆記... This part is my favourite...
Want to know the PK who invented that? Bankers.
But in a world where no one defaults... who cares about meagre Return on Assets.
If I had $10 capital, and I can borrow $390 to do $400 of business (40x leverage - less than Fannie, Freddie and Deutsche Bank).
My cost of interest is 5%, my return on assets is 6%. Assuming no one defaults or if mortgages, full recovery because of ever rising house prices... My return is 1% of $400... or $4...
$4 profit on $10 capital. Every year.
But even if only 1 year... After the first year, who ever came up with that plan in the bank will already have received a nice big bonus. And bought an apartment in 西九...
Also, everyone reading this blog who is at or was in business school. You can throw whatever you have learnt about securitization out of the window and pretended those classes never happened.
And if possible, it is time schools taught about defaults when teaching banking at all levels... Even Form 4 + 5 level. All I learnt was the credit creation process... And never about bank runs, defaults and wealth destruction.
How will capital be allocated going forward? Well... I have been seeing a lot of HSBC commercial banking ads lately on CNBC.
He noted many things in his 筆記... This part is my favourite...
都唔知邊個 PK 發明看金融股只看ROE不看ROA，ROE只是ROA乘一個扛杆
Want to know the PK who invented that? Bankers.
But in a world where no one defaults... who cares about meagre Return on Assets.
If I had $10 capital, and I can borrow $390 to do $400 of business (40x leverage - less than Fannie, Freddie and Deutsche Bank).
My cost of interest is 5%, my return on assets is 6%. Assuming no one defaults or if mortgages, full recovery because of ever rising house prices... My return is 1% of $400... or $4...
$4 profit on $10 capital. Every year.
But even if only 1 year... After the first year, who ever came up with that plan in the bank will already have received a nice big bonus. And bought an apartment in 西九...
Also, everyone reading this blog who is at or was in business school. You can throw whatever you have learnt about securitization out of the window and pretended those classes never happened.
And if possible, it is time schools taught about defaults when teaching banking at all levels... Even Form 4 + 5 level. All I learnt was the credit creation process... And never about bank runs, defaults and wealth destruction.
How will capital be allocated going forward? Well... I have been seeing a lot of HSBC commercial banking ads lately on CNBC.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Bought Bull today at 3:57pm...
Bought Callable Bull today at 3:57pm on HSCE and HSI.
See how it goes.
Probably be called first thing Monday morning. hor hor hor
See how it goes.
Probably be called first thing Monday morning. hor hor hor
世界已食唔落美債
噚日，孫柏文開收音機聽新聞，聽到一段令我非常鼓舞嘅消息。呢段消息就係，有白銀戰隊成員，喺西貢糧船灣進行「反美帝物流活動」，想將一磚磚白銀運上俗稱「大飛」嘅快艇。
點知搬運時，遇到好鍾意拉啲「紙幣狂魔」挑戰者嘅特區差佬。
走私白銀的啓示
可能因為之前，就連上網同人分享個人對銀行信貸健全水平都俾人拉，所以呢啲擺到明反紙幣狂魔嘅白銀戰隊成員，一於好少理。一見差佬，即走。仲要俾佢哋走得甩，因為差佬聲稱事件中「冇人被捕」。
首先唔講佢哋想將啲白銀運去邊，我覺得呢班白銀戰隊物流部嘅戰友，一見水警就走，已經係對呢個盲目挺美元嘅政府一個冇得再賴嘅譴責。一班為咗服務啲諗住自救，所以買白銀來運輸嘅人，都可以一見代表政府嘅公僕，即刻唔要啲白銀，特區金融白色恐怖嘅程度已經去到極點。
仲有，雖然我唔知啲白銀運去邊，不過如果要估，應該就係運返大陸。
當祖國政府之前已宣佈白銀入境唔會收關稅時，呢班人都要走私，即係呢班白銀戰隊成員，或佢哋啲客，就連祖國政府都唔信會尊重產權，唔信會放過啲白銀。
唔信銀行的明證
其實，前日我都聽到話有大戶要求銀行，為佢準備7 位數字嘅美元鈔票，一嚿現金擺喺銀行保險箱。呢個舉動，當然係對銀行制度投不信任票，雖然星展銀行事件已證明，保險箱都唔係百分百安全，不過我都可以明白。因為當全球貨幣政策都係圍繞住美元咁走，而花旗國政府將會排山倒海咁發債，世界已食唔落美債，唔信銀行係可以明白。
不過，如果你連美金現鈔都唔信，要買實貨白銀的話，最好就係買完唔使怕政府。因為一旦見差佬，都唔使唔要。
最後想講就係，噚日政府沒收嘅白銀，我等緊刊憲去買。
點知搬運時，遇到好鍾意拉啲「紙幣狂魔」挑戰者嘅特區差佬。
走私白銀的啓示
可能因為之前，就連上網同人分享個人對銀行信貸健全水平都俾人拉，所以呢啲擺到明反紙幣狂魔嘅白銀戰隊成員，一於好少理。一見差佬，即走。仲要俾佢哋走得甩，因為差佬聲稱事件中「冇人被捕」。
首先唔講佢哋想將啲白銀運去邊，我覺得呢班白銀戰隊物流部嘅戰友，一見水警就走，已經係對呢個盲目挺美元嘅政府一個冇得再賴嘅譴責。一班為咗服務啲諗住自救，所以買白銀來運輸嘅人，都可以一見代表政府嘅公僕，即刻唔要啲白銀，特區金融白色恐怖嘅程度已經去到極點。
仲有，雖然我唔知啲白銀運去邊，不過如果要估，應該就係運返大陸。
當祖國政府之前已宣佈白銀入境唔會收關稅時，呢班人都要走私，即係呢班白銀戰隊成員，或佢哋啲客，就連祖國政府都唔信會尊重產權，唔信會放過啲白銀。
唔信銀行的明證
其實，前日我都聽到話有大戶要求銀行，為佢準備7 位數字嘅美元鈔票，一嚿現金擺喺銀行保險箱。呢個舉動，當然係對銀行制度投不信任票，雖然星展銀行事件已證明，保險箱都唔係百分百安全，不過我都可以明白。因為當全球貨幣政策都係圍繞住美元咁走，而花旗國政府將會排山倒海咁發債，世界已食唔落美債，唔信銀行係可以明白。
不過，如果你連美金現鈔都唔信，要買實貨白銀的話，最好就係買完唔使怕政府。因為一旦見差佬，都唔使唔要。
最後想講就係，噚日政府沒收嘅白銀，我等緊刊憲去買。
Thursday, October 09, 2008
最後一著... 求神來一次 Divine Intervention
全球減息究竟 work 唔 work？
我只可以話，記得 MC HAMMER 既朋友...
"...We need to pray, just to make it today..."
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
救雷曼「苦主」低Q能
呢兩個禮拜，孫柏文睇到「雷曼投資者輸錢事件」嘅事態發展，越睇越火滾。由最初民主黨做show，畀買咗雷曼產品嘅投資者一個集體假希望，到今時今日，政府行政機關高調介入，強迫啲本地銀行硬啃，要令市民覺得政府做緊嘢。
政府明唔明白為咗呢班為數可能上萬嘅人，越「做嘢」就會越罔顧特區銀行體制穩健，越有機會令特區銀行爆發集體擠提潮，最終危害幾百萬個需要穩健銀行體制嘅香港人。孫柏文已經係特區數一數二，政治思維上最心胸廣闊嘅人，不過今日我都要講句：「曾蔭權係政治家？我呸！」
資不抵債隨時執笠
今時今日嘅金融海嘯，係建基於全球債主、存戶唔知道啲銀行手上嘅資產價值。因為唔知道資產價值，一旦被揭發少過負債，就可以即時執笠。不過今次呢個海嘯，起碼知道啲銀行負債有幾多，佢哋要上身負責還嘅數有幾大。
不過如果特區政府行政機關，成功令市民覺得佢哋有能力，強迫啲本地銀行為咗所有之前賣過嘅金融產品上身，本地銀行嘅資產負債表就會突然出現超級問號。多都唔使問，只要有人問政府：「曾特首，本地銀行賣過價值幾多嘅金融產品？本地銀行一旦因為你做嘢，被迫要賠款，究竟仲有冇本地銀行唔係資不抵債？」
當有咁大嘅不明朗因素，所有本地銀行嘅債主、存戶，即時對自己幫襯開嘅銀行出現恐慌。大家都唔使怕師奶提款潮，因為只要有差佬拉啲不誠實使用電腦嘅人，傳媒唔報道，就唔會發生。
恐慌提款潮會再現
不過嗰啲當特區銀行為資金避難所嘅大客戶，就會即時電子提款潮，將資金調去外國。
政府行政機關，背後究竟幫唔幫啲雷曼產品投資者係其次，最緊要係喺全世界嘅目光下，狠狠地宣佈：「為追求更高回報，買任何投資產品自己要負上全部責任。如果覺得被誤導，就唔應該請求立法或行政機關幫手，因為香港有健全反欺騙嘅法例，有事就搵司法制度去爭取公義。」令本地銀行嘅債主、存戶，覺得本地銀行唔上身。
嗰啲好似孫媽媽咁，呢幾年嚟都千辛萬苦用盡方法，向銀行職員嘅推銷說不嘅百萬市民，今日政府幫雷曼產品投資者，簡直就係陷孫媽媽同百萬市民於不義。為自己嘅政治方便，去摧毀銀行體制嘅穩健，呢啲就係負責任嘅領導咩？
I see people seem to have a reaction upon reading this piece I wrote.
I welcome any thoughts on this matter. Thank you.
政府明唔明白為咗呢班為數可能上萬嘅人，越「做嘢」就會越罔顧特區銀行體制穩健，越有機會令特區銀行爆發集體擠提潮，最終危害幾百萬個需要穩健銀行體制嘅香港人。孫柏文已經係特區數一數二，政治思維上最心胸廣闊嘅人，不過今日我都要講句：「曾蔭權係政治家？我呸！」
資不抵債隨時執笠
今時今日嘅金融海嘯，係建基於全球債主、存戶唔知道啲銀行手上嘅資產價值。因為唔知道資產價值，一旦被揭發少過負債，就可以即時執笠。不過今次呢個海嘯，起碼知道啲銀行負債有幾多，佢哋要上身負責還嘅數有幾大。
不過如果特區政府行政機關，成功令市民覺得佢哋有能力，強迫啲本地銀行為咗所有之前賣過嘅金融產品上身，本地銀行嘅資產負債表就會突然出現超級問號。多都唔使問，只要有人問政府：「曾特首，本地銀行賣過價值幾多嘅金融產品？本地銀行一旦因為你做嘢，被迫要賠款，究竟仲有冇本地銀行唔係資不抵債？」
當有咁大嘅不明朗因素，所有本地銀行嘅債主、存戶，即時對自己幫襯開嘅銀行出現恐慌。大家都唔使怕師奶提款潮，因為只要有差佬拉啲不誠實使用電腦嘅人，傳媒唔報道，就唔會發生。
恐慌提款潮會再現
不過嗰啲當特區銀行為資金避難所嘅大客戶，就會即時電子提款潮，將資金調去外國。
政府行政機關，背後究竟幫唔幫啲雷曼產品投資者係其次，最緊要係喺全世界嘅目光下，狠狠地宣佈：「為追求更高回報，買任何投資產品自己要負上全部責任。如果覺得被誤導，就唔應該請求立法或行政機關幫手，因為香港有健全反欺騙嘅法例，有事就搵司法制度去爭取公義。」令本地銀行嘅債主、存戶，覺得本地銀行唔上身。
嗰啲好似孫媽媽咁，呢幾年嚟都千辛萬苦用盡方法，向銀行職員嘅推銷說不嘅百萬市民，今日政府幫雷曼產品投資者，簡直就係陷孫媽媽同百萬市民於不義。為自己嘅政治方便，去摧毀銀行體制嘅穩健，呢啲就係負責任嘅領導咩？
-----------------------------
I see people seem to have a reaction upon reading this piece I wrote.
I welcome any thoughts on this matter. Thank you.
Monday, October 06, 2008
未擠提？唔理性！
呢個周末，孫柏文見到歐洲大國啲元首開派對，傾救市。當電視新聞報道佢哋開記者招待會嘅片段時，我當然睇到實。法國、德國、前宗主國嘅話事人通通到齊。不過如果佢哋想達到嘅目標，係想減低銀行業嘅動盪，結果應該會失敗。
點解？因為請少咗個人。我睇電視同埋之後上網，發現冇愛爾蘭首相份，都知今次會議做show多過乜。
政府包底實安全
大家可能會問：「區區一個二百萬人口嘅小國，愛爾蘭嘅首相唔去，so what？孫柏文又膠up。」等我解釋點解。
愛爾蘭政府上個禮拜宣佈，不論幾多，全面保證所有銀行嘅存款。消息一出，歐洲各國其他銀行嘅存款就即刻湧到愛爾蘭，相信下星期繼續。
因為好簡單，如果你係一個喺法國、德國、前宗主國銀行存錢嘅存戶，你信你間銀行定係信一個主權國政府？
相信如果其他歐洲國家政府「唔跟到底」，學愛爾蘭全面保證所有存款，幾日內應該有多間歐洲銀行同時倒閉或被接管。我都唔想有咁嘅分析，不過條數就係咁計。
同樣情況都喺花旗國出現。財長保爾森見到花旗國啲非常低利息、傳統上未輸過存戶錢（因為投資傳統上非常安全嘅資產）、啲人用來代替普通銀行存款、不過唔係傳統被監管嘅銀行，提供啲叫做money market嘅戶口，被人瘋狂擠提。所以9月29日就宣佈完全保證呢啲戶口，為期三個月。
可能因為呢啲money market戶口嘅總存款額，達到34000億美元，所以如果存戶同一時間抽錢走，啲戶口經理人同一時間變賣戶口資產套現，市場會進一步動盪，所以財長出嚟保證係可以理解。
投靠愛爾蘭政府
點知個後果就係，當時只得十萬美元上限保證嘅傳統銀行存款，即刻出現擠提。資金湧入啲 money market戶口，放棄傳統銀行存款。
不過因為係大客，冇人龍，所以冇人講、冇傳媒報道、冇人不誠實使用電腦。
再講，特區銀行存款保證得十萬元，現在冇一個本地銀行嘅債主（當然包括存戶），知道啲本地銀行資產係乜。如果出事特區政府會點反應？所以有理由相信本港大客戶已經投靠愛爾蘭政府或者花旗國 money market戶口。佢哋心諗：「未擠提？唔理性！」
------------------------------
Final note: This capital flight due to some government's guarantee is now forcing all govts to extend this guarantee.
I wrote the piece above Sunday afternoon. Then on Monday morning, Germany announced it will guarantee all deposits.
Now... I heard Hong Kong Govt will also do so...
I don't know. There is no leadership in Hong Kong government right now. Keep an eye out for Wednesday on Money Cafe. I will be doing a Jim Cramer. I am really pissed off.
點解？因為請少咗個人。我睇電視同埋之後上網，發現冇愛爾蘭首相份，都知今次會議做show多過乜。
政府包底實安全
大家可能會問：「區區一個二百萬人口嘅小國，愛爾蘭嘅首相唔去，so what？孫柏文又膠up。」等我解釋點解。
愛爾蘭政府上個禮拜宣佈，不論幾多，全面保證所有銀行嘅存款。消息一出，歐洲各國其他銀行嘅存款就即刻湧到愛爾蘭，相信下星期繼續。
因為好簡單，如果你係一個喺法國、德國、前宗主國銀行存錢嘅存戶，你信你間銀行定係信一個主權國政府？
相信如果其他歐洲國家政府「唔跟到底」，學愛爾蘭全面保證所有存款，幾日內應該有多間歐洲銀行同時倒閉或被接管。我都唔想有咁嘅分析，不過條數就係咁計。
同樣情況都喺花旗國出現。財長保爾森見到花旗國啲非常低利息、傳統上未輸過存戶錢（因為投資傳統上非常安全嘅資產）、啲人用來代替普通銀行存款、不過唔係傳統被監管嘅銀行，提供啲叫做money market嘅戶口，被人瘋狂擠提。所以9月29日就宣佈完全保證呢啲戶口，為期三個月。
可能因為呢啲money market戶口嘅總存款額，達到34000億美元，所以如果存戶同一時間抽錢走，啲戶口經理人同一時間變賣戶口資產套現，市場會進一步動盪，所以財長出嚟保證係可以理解。
投靠愛爾蘭政府
點知個後果就係，當時只得十萬美元上限保證嘅傳統銀行存款，即刻出現擠提。資金湧入啲 money market戶口，放棄傳統銀行存款。
不過因為係大客，冇人龍，所以冇人講、冇傳媒報道、冇人不誠實使用電腦。
再講，特區銀行存款保證得十萬元，現在冇一個本地銀行嘅債主（當然包括存戶），知道啲本地銀行資產係乜。如果出事特區政府會點反應？所以有理由相信本港大客戶已經投靠愛爾蘭政府或者花旗國 money market戶口。佢哋心諗：「未擠提？唔理性！」
------------------------------
Final note: This capital flight due to some government's guarantee is now forcing all govts to extend this guarantee.
I wrote the piece above Sunday afternoon. Then on Monday morning, Germany announced it will guarantee all deposits.
Now... I heard Hong Kong Govt will also do so...
I don't know. There is no leadership in Hong Kong government right now. Keep an eye out for Wednesday on Money Cafe. I will be doing a Jim Cramer. I am really pissed off.
金手指第三季總結
總結金手指篤過嘅「一注獨贏」貼士，可用24字總結，「金融海嘯、淹沒全球、水未始退、生死未卜、產值難定、有價就沽」。以下係我對啲貼士喺第四季嘅展望。
白銀：自從3月大升至21.44美元一盎斯後，跟住又大落。不過白銀喺第三季初嘅7月，曾經又見19.55美元一盎斯。不過一見就大幅下瀉，全球進行減債、減低槓桿活動，包括白銀等資產，面對金融海嘯無一倖免。
銀價上落如一場夢
白銀喺9月，最低曾見10.31美元一盎斯。比起06年3月，孫柏文第一次建議大家「一注獨贏買白銀」時嘅銀價10美元一盎斯，冇乜分別。兩年半嚟，一場夢。最後第三季收報12.10美元一盎斯，做白銀戰士非常辛苦。
喺我第二季嘅總結，已講過銀行撇賬活動繼續，因之前撇賬要鞏固銀行資金，每次引入嘅新資金都中招輸錢。我話：「羊牯雖然多，不過都會有用盡嘅一日。一旦冇羊牯，又遇上啲中央銀行冇錢，啲國際級銀行又再風起雲湧。到時候會否發生骨牌倒閉潮，就真係唔知囉。」
冇錯7月2日《金手指》嗰篇文係咁寫。不過估唔到嘅係，可以預測事件發生，不過白銀作為貴金屬，都可以大跌。
商品市場嘅「銀價」，已開始同實貨脫節，實貨銀價比起商品市場「銀價」嘅溢價越來越大，需求冇減。
所以維持建議：強力買入
目標價：120美元一盎斯
有效期至：2016年3月6日
中油收息等回購
中油香港（135）：因為油價08年頭半年非常強勁，令中油香港半年業績不錯，其手頭現金已超過1元一股，可能因為咁，公司管理層開始進行股份回購。雖然要回復到我推介嗰日嘅6元股價，要一段日子，大家就收股息，等股份回購。
基本因素冇變，只要08年下半年業績，比07年下半年唔差好多，收貨啦。
維持原本建議：強力買入。
不過調低目標價：由原本8.05至5.2元。
有效期亦延至2009年12月18日。
白銀：自從3月大升至21.44美元一盎斯後，跟住又大落。不過白銀喺第三季初嘅7月，曾經又見19.55美元一盎斯。不過一見就大幅下瀉，全球進行減債、減低槓桿活動，包括白銀等資產，面對金融海嘯無一倖免。
銀價上落如一場夢
白銀喺9月，最低曾見10.31美元一盎斯。比起06年3月，孫柏文第一次建議大家「一注獨贏買白銀」時嘅銀價10美元一盎斯，冇乜分別。兩年半嚟，一場夢。最後第三季收報12.10美元一盎斯，做白銀戰士非常辛苦。
喺我第二季嘅總結，已講過銀行撇賬活動繼續，因之前撇賬要鞏固銀行資金，每次引入嘅新資金都中招輸錢。我話：「羊牯雖然多，不過都會有用盡嘅一日。一旦冇羊牯，又遇上啲中央銀行冇錢，啲國際級銀行又再風起雲湧。到時候會否發生骨牌倒閉潮，就真係唔知囉。」
冇錯7月2日《金手指》嗰篇文係咁寫。不過估唔到嘅係，可以預測事件發生，不過白銀作為貴金屬，都可以大跌。
商品市場嘅「銀價」，已開始同實貨脫節，實貨銀價比起商品市場「銀價」嘅溢價越來越大，需求冇減。
所以維持建議：強力買入
目標價：120美元一盎斯
有效期至：2016年3月6日
中油收息等回購
中油香港（135）：因為油價08年頭半年非常強勁，令中油香港半年業績不錯，其手頭現金已超過1元一股，可能因為咁，公司管理層開始進行股份回購。雖然要回復到我推介嗰日嘅6元股價，要一段日子，大家就收股息，等股份回購。
基本因素冇變，只要08年下半年業績，比07年下半年唔差好多，收貨啦。
維持原本建議：強力買入。
不過調低目標價：由原本8.05至5.2元。
有效期亦延至2009年12月18日。
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Saturday, October 04, 2008
The last epic US$700b bullet
In my last post, I said that this bill was the last epic bullet the government can fire.
And even with it, the TED spread failed to narrow (for what TED spread is and what it is important please refer to my the prior post just below).
I would say this. The market is NOT impressed by the government HAVING this bullet.
We know Big Game Hunter Paulson has this bullet in his chamber, but we don't know how he is going to fire it.
I would add this. Lets see how he is going to fire it. I think he will move before Asian Market opens.
Lets see how he fires it and whats the effect. He has said that the money will be spent buying crap with a 'reverse auction' method.
As to how my "06 Vintage Southern California Alt-A Liar Loans Mortgage with 700 pts Credit score borrowers" will compete with your "05 Florida Prime but Junior CDS" on price is anybody's guess.
I got a feeling a lot of US bloggers will flame every purchase as a dud.
Finally, as this tsunami is taking out commercial borrowers such as other corporations, even if US$700b sounds like a lot of money, how far can it go.
Keep looking at the TED spread my friends. It will be highly indicative of what happens.
And even with it, the TED spread failed to narrow (for what TED spread is and what it is important please refer to my the prior post just below).
I would say this. The market is NOT impressed by the government HAVING this bullet.
We know Big Game Hunter Paulson has this bullet in his chamber, but we don't know how he is going to fire it.
I would add this. Lets see how he is going to fire it. I think he will move before Asian Market opens.
Lets see how he fires it and whats the effect. He has said that the money will be spent buying crap with a 'reverse auction' method.
As to how my "06 Vintage Southern California Alt-A Liar Loans Mortgage with 700 pts Credit score borrowers" will compete with your "05 Florida Prime but Junior CDS" on price is anybody's guess.
I got a feeling a lot of US bloggers will flame every purchase as a dud.
Finally, as this tsunami is taking out commercial borrowers such as other corporations, even if US$700b sounds like a lot of money, how far can it go.
Keep looking at the TED spread my friends. It will be highly indicative of what happens.
Deal is passed. Nothing changed. Last bullet fired?
Super mega US$700b "Lets buy crap we can't value via reverse auction" plan passed in the House of Representative today.
The whole point of the plan is so that institutions of all kinds will start lending to each other.
The best measure of the willingness to lend between banking institution is the TED spread.
What is the TED spread? From wikipedia...
Anyhow, with the US$700b bill finally passing you would expect the TED spread to decrease. The difference between interbank loans interest rate and T Bill rate to narrow...
Nope. From Bloomberg...
As of 3pm US Eastern Daylight-savings Time (EDT), The TED spread is still at a record high of 3.8%.
I don't know where the US markets will close today.
All I can say is this.
1. The deal passed
2. The deal is the one final epic bullet the US government can fire.
3. It is having NO EFFECT.
My friends, next week. I believe we will see a crash.
The whole point of the plan is so that institutions of all kinds will start lending to each other.
The best measure of the willingness to lend between banking institution is the TED spread.
What is the TED spread? From wikipedia...
The TED spread is the difference between the interest rates on inter-bank loans and short-term U.S. government debt ("T-bills").
Anyhow, with the US$700b bill finally passing you would expect the TED spread to decrease. The difference between interbank loans interest rate and T Bill rate to narrow...
Nope. From Bloomberg...
As of 3pm US Eastern Daylight-savings Time (EDT), The TED spread is still at a record high of 3.8%.
I don't know where the US markets will close today.
All I can say is this.
1. The deal passed
2. The deal is the one final epic bullet the US government can fire.
3. It is having NO EFFECT.
My friends, next week. I believe we will see a crash.
Friday, October 03, 2008
Picking up talent in the carnage
I have always said that this blow up of the financial sector will release a lot of talent back into the labour pool to be sorted through and picked up.
Kinda like when I was a younger man playing 三國志 computer game, and if you are skillful enough to kill 劉備 and him only, you will be able to pick up 張飛、關公 etc...
Would love if they can do this in Hong Kong too...
Kinda like when I was a younger man playing 三國志 computer game, and if you are skillful enough to kill 劉備 and him only, you will be able to pick up 張飛、關公 etc...
Would love if they can do this in Hong Kong too...
Playboy looks for bare market on Wall Street
Thu Oct 2, 2008 2:04pm EDT
By Robert MacMillan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Playboy magazine is offering a new way to lose your shirt on Wall Street.
The adult entertainment magazine, long famous for its photo spreads of nude women and lessons in living the urbane life of the well-heeled bachelor, is launching a search for models to pose for its upcoming feature, "Women of Wall Street."
Playboy came up with the idea for the feature after the onset of the global financial crisis, which has vaporized fortunes and left Wall Street reeling. It is planned for the February 2009 edition of the monthly magazine and on its website.
"When the news gets bad, then maybe that's a chance to make people smile by coming up with something that puts a different twist on it," said Gary Cole, Playboy's photo editor.
Playboy and Playboy.com frequently run specials such as "Girls of Olive Garden" and "Women of Home Depot," but in the past it has garnered attention for big business news themes.
It published "Women of Enron" and "Women of WorldCom" after the companies' spectacular failures. The magazine ran a "Women of Wall Street" feature nearly 20 years ago.
Playboy is seeking current and former employees of the financial world, and is especially interested in those with more senior job experience.
"It would be more interesting to have someone who's a financial analyst," said Cole.
Models must work for a financial institution or have recently worked for one, and prove that they are at least 18 years old.
"How many attractive women do you ... think there are working on Wall Street and the affiliated companies?" Cole said when asked how much success he thought Playboy would have in finding candidates. "There has to be thousands and thousands."
Playboy likely will photograph about 20 women, he said, adding that compensation would depend partly on how many women apply.
"Whether you offer them $500 or $1,000 or $2,000 a piece, that's probably not going to change anybody's mind," he said. "The reason they do this is because they want the attention, the opportunity, the experience of doing it. It's not really for the money."
Playboy is soliciting applications at www.playboy.com/wallstreet
A must see video for those who wants to get a feel of the foreclosure crisis.
This video must be watched by those who wants to see and feel what is going on in the epicentre of the Foreclosure crisis. About 11 mins long.
For those of you who thinks, "A lot of money lent to Americans... Where did it all go?"
Well. The houses are one thing. But when the banks or financial institution that are foreclosing, needs to clean out the house of everything, a 'trash out' occurs. That is when all things left behind by owners are thrown out into the Land fill.
Functioning products (probably made in China) are going to the land fill as rubbish. Value TOTALLY destroyed.
The money lent to Americans? Into Landfills. So stop saying, "the money must have gone to someone." It didn't. It is now buried into the soil.
For those of you who thinks, "A lot of money lent to Americans... Where did it all go?"
Well. The houses are one thing. But when the banks or financial institution that are foreclosing, needs to clean out the house of everything, a 'trash out' occurs. That is when all things left behind by owners are thrown out into the Land fill.
Functioning products (probably made in China) are going to the land fill as rubbish. Value TOTALLY destroyed.
The money lent to Americans? Into Landfills. So stop saying, "the money must have gone to someone." It didn't. It is now buried into the soil.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
The Bailout Bill 2.0 (don't be so confident yet)
It is getting very interesting.
The good folks over at the Money Cafe Blog is betting that there will be a deal the next time round.
That is a speculation I can accept as reasonable.
Of course, whats different between the bill that was defeated in Tuesday and the one coming next (as for when? who knows? But if you say Thursday... hor hor hor)
By the way, the 485 pts rise in the Dow...
I think the effect of the "considering by" accounting standards board in "suspending" mark to market accounting played a huge part (but the effect of suspending it could be bad).
As for 'progress' in the bailout bill... After all, all those legislative politicians speaking in DC yesterday about "confidence in passing a new bill"... Were from the Senate.
From the House of Representative? Silence.
And you know why the silence? Read and weep(from wired).
Also, the web traffic to the House Web site during the period right before the bailout vote was second only to the 911 report.
These people are complaining to their House Representatives, and trust me, they will do it again. The House Representatives can't even be bribed to pass this bill with golden parachutes into Investment banks anymore. The irony is rich.
God Bless a bicameral system.
The good folks over at the Money Cafe Blog is betting that there will be a deal the next time round.
That is a speculation I can accept as reasonable.
Of course, whats different between the bill that was defeated in Tuesday and the one coming next (as for when? who knows? But if you say Thursday... hor hor hor)
By the way, the 485 pts rise in the Dow...
I think the effect of the "considering by" accounting standards board in "suspending" mark to market accounting played a huge part (but the effect of suspending it could be bad).
As for 'progress' in the bailout bill... After all, all those legislative politicians speaking in DC yesterday about "confidence in passing a new bill"... Were from the Senate.
From the House of Representative? Silence.
And you know why the silence? Read and weep(from wired).
House Website Crumbles Under Weight of $700 Billion Bailout
Not only is the economy crashing, but so is part of the House of Representative's website.
The site's button -- "Write Your Representative" -- was bombarded by millions of constituents wanting to speak their mind about the stalled $700 billion Wall Street bailout.
A government official, Jeff Ventura, who runs the House.gov site, said millions of clicks on the feature might bring down the entire site.
Here's what the "Write Your Representative" button said when we clicked it:
Also, the web traffic to the House Web site during the period right before the bailout vote was second only to the 911 report.
These people are complaining to their House Representatives, and trust me, they will do it again. The House Representatives can't even be bribed to pass this bill with golden parachutes into Investment banks anymore. The irony is rich.
God Bless a bicameral system.
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