If around 21000 is to be top (according to Fibonacci).
We need a massive strengthening of the US Dollar.
The chart below is a prediction (based on a descending triangle), that if the US Dollar Index were to break below 78.3, it will fall catastrophically to 67.
And if that happens, all kinds of crap will be forced sky high.
My guess is the US Dollar index will strengthen. Stock Markets around the world is driven by no attachment to future earnings.
Beware everyone. Keep an eye out for the USD.
作為一個大淡友，你覺得今次會升到咩位呢?
ReplyDelete我認為大淡友絕對估計唔到恆指可以在今年內升破二萬點, 大淡友現在大概認為股市隨時大冧, 大家要綁緊安全帶.
ReplyDeleteUSD down, stock market should keep going up.
ReplyDeleteUSD up, bye bye stock market.
there is correlation between USD and stocks, but hard to say USD weakness is a reason for the rise in stocks.
ReplyDelete先後會唔會錯左？經濟有望向好，股市上升，資金唔需要流入美股/債避險，所以 USD 先跌？
ReplyDelete美元升就美股跌，美股跌就美元升，呢個星期又拍賣國債，咁美元一定要升啦，唔係，邊個買？(一係訂出勁高債息，先至有人要)，不過上兩次拍賣國債，又真係做到美元美股美債一齊唔大跌，今次唔知會唔會又好似上兩咁呢？
ReplyDeleteHey Andrew, saw you at the pool tonight. And then in the change room I heard some guy trying to chat with you :p
ReplyDelete仲有你呢個淡友,所以大市未死得住。
ReplyDelete仲估頂??!!
ReplyDelete你這個是一周頂? 一月頂? 一季頂?一年頂?
大個仔啦...
估中也只是代表好運...
If insanity need reasons to support its actions, doesn't it makes the people who really think that even more insane?
ReplyDelete出口術加息之日, 冧市之時
ReplyDeletebelow 78.3 tonight
ReplyDeletewe're all waiting for pakman to cut loss his put before the market crash! ha
ReplyDelete... btw, time to call for silver la ...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$USD,SLV,gld
If the Dollar Index fell to 67 and the dollar were eventually devalued, what would happen to HKD?
ReplyDeleteHi Mr. Packman,
ReplyDeleteI'm your reader from Canada and have been your reader for a long time. I totally agreed with you that we're all in a bear market bounce. But this rally has indeed put a lot of technical analysts out of their jobs --- they've been screaming the market being overbought for three weeks but the stock markets have been going higher.
Anyway, the current rally is thanks to the TARP money from the States, giving the investment banks opportunities to pop up the markets to lure more investors to put more money in the market to create another bubble.
Here is my blog discussing economic issues, one in Chinese (updated daily) and the other updated in English (updated weekly).
Chinese:
http://blog.sina.com.cn/moneyhome888
http://moneyhome888.blogspot.com
English:
http://moneymaster888.blogspot.com
2009/08/06 17:41《中國要聞》商務部︰可適當降高檔商品稅率，將境外消費轉至境內
ReplyDelete《經濟通通訊社６日專訊》商務部副部長姜增偉表示，由於中國居民收入提高、人民幣升值
、境內外商品價格差異等因素，中國旅遊者在國外大量採購高檔消費品。這部分高端消費是客觀
存在的，與其花在國外，不如設法留在國內。他認為，可以考慮適當降低化妝品、高檔手錶等商
品的相關稅率，促進國內需求的高級商品增加進口，將部分境外消費轉化為境內購買，擴大國內
市場的銷售收入。
想問吓d內地同胞就係唔係會留番晒自己個地頭買高檔貨,香港d名店同旅遊業係唔係隨時會玩完呢?
仲有中国内地股市“国际板”开闸,咁大笨象同阿仔都話要回歸袓國懷抱,而且應該陸續有來....咁係唔係可以向港交所說Bye Bye??