Index ETF =/= Passive investing

好多人覺得買指數基金好穩定，因為覺得基金唔會經常買入賣出。 不過，花旗國Mark Cuban講過，買指數基金其實只係買決定指數成份股公司嘅眼光。每一次加入、剔除或改變成份股，你就已經進行了買賣，所以唔好覺得指數基金唔會經常買入 賣出。

When you "buy the market" by buying SPDRs or QQQQ or DIA, you are thinking that you are investing "passively". Merely tracking the market.

However, as Mark Cuban has said, when you buy an index fund, you are actually trusting the stock pickers of the index. Whether it is the S&P 500 or the Hang Seng Index.

Everytime they change their index portfolio, or weighting, your fund will be trading. So do not think your index fund is as passive as they prsent themselves to be.

花旗爆煲 金銀飆上

上個禮拜真係刺激。原材料大跌，跌得最慘就一定係孫柏文最 喜愛的白銀，3日之內，跌7%。中資國企股都受到嚴重回吐壓力，被我譽為今次H股泡沫龍頭，猶如當年科技股Cisco嘅中國人壽2628，亦係3日內有高 達17%嘅波幅。好彩中國人壽係一間國企公司，如果係一間土生土長香港人建立同營運嘅公司，港交所同證監會都已經要求佢出通告解釋。

不 過，上市公司出少啲「唔知道點解股價大上大落」嘅通告，對環境保護都好啲。因為我都係一個環保分子，所以我好支持「untouchable」嘅國企來港上 市，繼續支持港交所同證監會排擠土生土長嘅公司。呢幾日股價大上大落，最大得益者肯定係班輪商。淨係睇中國人壽禮拜五嘅波幅，都知道輪商淨係靠朝頭早嘅過 山車走勢，已經因為引伸波幅，可以將認股證嘅溢價校到好高。

其 實，呢幾日嘅金融市場波動，源頭就係上個禮拜三晚出嘅花旗國聯儲局會議紀錄。聯儲局會議就係喺12月進行，總括嚟講，聯儲局仲係一心想打擊通脹。就算到上 年年尾，債市（憑長息率低過短息）、石油（升勢終止）、銅價（跌、跌、跌）都已經發出訊號標誌，花旗國如果唔改變方向，就會經濟衰退，但聯儲局都好似一意 孤行。仲有，大家都預期聯儲局出來救市，點知一份會議紀錄，令大家夢醒。所以對經濟表現非常敏感嘅油價、銅價都相繼加速跌幅。

加按攞錢影響嚴重

當 然，有啲人完全唔覺得聯儲局可以不顧經濟衰退，覺得遲早會減息救市。例如，全球最大債券基金Pimco嘅基金經理Bill Gross就覺得，聯儲局今年應該減四次息，令聯邦息率去到4.25%。呢個觀點，我都相信，我都覺得聯儲局會重開印刷機，瘋狂印銀紙，所以黃金白銀下半 年一定會好犀利。大家都知道花旗國經濟會衰退嘅最大原因，就係佢哋嘅樓市正在爆煲。多嘅我都唔講，因為樓價唔升，花旗國人民淨係少咗加按攞錢，都會嚴重影 響經濟。花旗國分析員Barry Ritholtz計過數，01年、02年如果花旗國經濟冇咗業主加按攞錢，已經會有嚴重經濟衰退（表）。02年之後，花旗國經濟愈嚟愈依賴業主加按，所以 今年冇呢筆錢，除非聯儲局減息，經濟都好難唔衰退。

I walked a mile for a Camel

大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎，都知道孫柏文非常反對啱啱1月1日生效嘅禁煙條例。無他，反對嘅理由係連只准成年人出現嘅地方，而所有在場人士都你情我願嘅情況之下，都唔准食煙。我亦曾經喺10月19 日講過，我哋特區嗰班患有「肛門堵塞症」anally retentive嘅人，已經將特區推向納粹德國之路。

30年代納粹德國，當時希特拉（Hitler）又係大喊要保護市民健康、製造「完美」社會，所以實施公眾場所全面禁煙嘅政策。歷史最後證明，禁煙只係第一步，煙民只係第一群受迫害嘅人。不過嗰篇文章出街嘅一日，我只收到支持禁煙嘅電郵，一個支持《金手指》嘅煙民都冇。到咗今日，我希望特區80萬個煙民卒之明白，乜嘢係被侵犯獨立自主權、乜嘢叫冇人尊重個人決定。

左偉國玩死醫生

早幾日，孫柏文喺電視機螢幕上，見到吸煙與健康委員會主席左偉國意氣風發嘅樣。左偉國個樣，有如當年希特拉成功吞併捷克之後，向波蘭宣戰一樣樣。繼公眾場所禁煙之後，再要求政府加煙草稅。殺完同性戀者、再追殺共產黨員、最後滅絕猶太人，為達到「完美」社會，會不遺餘力。唔通，呢啲就叫「強政勵治」？

大家可能會問：「左偉國身為牙醫，點解要咁落力去宣傳反吸煙呢？」點解？有如我嘅朋友Rapiere話齋，左偉國一定係當年入唔到醫學院，迫住走去做牙醫，一路都懷恨在心。e家話禁煙，係知道好多醫生食煙，所以今次一鑊過，玩死佢哋。左偉國呢招夠晒毒，乜仇都報晒，佩服！

不如響應長毛遊行

今時今日，我知道有「長毛」之稱，視煙民哲．古華拉為偶像，自己今日都飽受被侵犯獨立自主權嘅立法會議員梁國雄，話會搞遊行抗議呢個政策。孫柏文今日發誓，如果梁議員搞遊行，我第一個到，仲會同佢肩並肩咁行。大家不如響應梁議員，遊行當日一路行，一路食煙，將維多利亞公園、軒尼詩道、政府合署變成全世界最煙火鼎盛嘅地方，喺一片二手煙之下，爭取獨立自主權！到時候，大家真係可以同自己講一句：「I walked a mile for a Camel！」

Sorry for the lack of posts...

For some reasons, I was having difficulty in accessing blogger.com...

So I was a little slow in posting...

Anyhow, below is a few posts of what I wanted to say for the past few days that I saved in draft.

Me, My N93, Simon and his new iPod

Well, we all know how iPod conquered the world and REALLY exposed how the Singaporean firm Creative Technology really dropped the ball on the mp3 player.

Ok, so did Sony et al.

But lets face it, Apple cracked the code on mp3 players. Which is when a user is faced with a bazillion songs or data measured in gigabytes, how the hell is the user going to have the easiest way of finding the wanted data.

When user's demand of instant gratification are measured in nano seconds, how can they manage the data most efficiently and quickly? And for those who says "Yes, but Sony has better sound quality!" all I can say is who cares when they are playing mp3s.. MP3s!!! yes even if it is 192b version...

Anyhow, this is Simon (a new iPod user) rates and comments on the iPod. And the voice you can hear interjecting his review is mine (yes, I am aware about how the iPod causes a lot of hearing problems, and notice how he doesn't respond to that... maybe hearing damaged?). hahahahaha

Me and my N93

I have said before that I really really really wanted a Nokia N93 to film stuff... Yes I got one!

And I have said that I do like to go to the club formerly known as 348, now called F-1...

Now if you merge the two urges together...

This is the result. Yes... the squealing? thats me with excitement... hahahha



First thing first... my favourite part of the video is from 1m02sec till 1m14sec. But what is the guy doing!??! Why is his hand on her back... I was like put it on her ASS... HER ASS!!!!! 唔好摸背隻啦!楂屎忽啊!屎忽啊!!! hahahahahahah

The thing is... notice the girl on the left, between 1m56s and 2m01s... watch the way she rapidly oscillates her butt. Now imagine how applicable that is with her on top ho ho ho...

Also, with these kind of music, arms waving like the dude simply looks weird (towards the end of the video). I feel bad for the male dancer... Obviously well trained in the art of professional dancing. But if whatever dances he knows is like Wushu competition, when he has been plunged into an ugly free-for-all street brawl... Kinda like university debates vs public advocacy.

孫柏文 helped to popularise the word 膠 (plastic)?

Ok, here's the original piece of me calling 民建聯 the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) 膠 (plastic), for asking the government to subsidize the finance industry of Hong Kong.

Well, the word 膠 strictly speaking means plastic, or some sort of gum/organic (carbon based) substance. It also incidently rhymes with the word "penis" in Cantonese. But it has been used by those who visit the forum hkgolden to describe things or people in a derogatory manner. Which of course is why I used it to describe the DAB.

Anyhow, the subsequent fallout is this. From one Mr Martin Oei (sp.?)

I love it how the debate is not focused on whether DAB is 膠 (which I guess is accepted by Mr. MO), but on how this word will gain popularity in the mainstream media, and by extension into the mainstream public.

If 膠 ever goes mainstream... I am proud to be part of the reason why! hahahaha

原材料係時候重拾升浪？

噚日，相信大家都將焦點放喺股市身上，呢點孫柏文絕對明白。因為，恒指同H指都相繼跌咗幾百點，特別H指始終得萬幾點，如果一日之內跌幾百點，真係心驚膽跳。不過，今日我想同大家講嘅唔係股票，而係都有一排冇講過嘅原材料。我記得當年我仲係一個石油分析員嘅時候，每一次見到啲客，我都會同佢哋講：「信我啦！石油一定升到大家都唔信。」不論當時石油係30蚊一桶，40蚊一桶，或者50蚊一桶又好，我都係始終如一，好consistently咁講。當年信我嘅客，好多時候都會問我：「石油升，點賭？」同「咁幾時先至好入市？」

何時入都係好時機

我嘅答案都係一樣：「大陸石油股。保守嘅可以買中石油（857），信中央政府政策會愈來愈開明嘅可以買386中石化，想搭基金經理順風車嘅可以買中海油（883），最後信我，覺得油價會升到大家都唔信嘅價位，就買中國（香港）石油（135）啦！」仲有：「任何時候入，都係好時機。」雖然啲客對點樣賭石油升嘅答案，冇乜異議。不過好多時候，啲客會對「任何時候入，都係好時機」呢個答案都持保留態度，有啲客甚至會窒我一句：「乜嘢時候入都得？即係話你冇做功課啦！」喺呢個時候，我就會同佢哋講：「如果你真係等得，你可以等到石油價格返回200平均線，如果啲油股緊貼油價咁升跌，就係最好時機入市。因為油價返回200日平均線，就會到底重拾升浪。不過因為唔可以擔保油股會緊貼油價咁升，所以都係買入先算。」

只係大升浪回氣期

最弊，今時今日嘅問題就係油價跌穿200平均線，仲要完全冇起色。情況仲要不限於油價，就連銅價都係一樣。上個月，我曾經講過如果銅價可以重返200平均線，江銅（358）就可以好快升一倍，不過今日睇形勢，買咗江銅嘅朋友就要等等。70年代中，已故花旗國總統福特在任嘅時候，好多原材料例如白銀、黃金、石油，都有出現回氣現象。好多人曾經講過，由01、02年開始嘅原材料大升浪，會長達10年，大家就要當06年尾07年初呢12個月為今次大升浪嘅回氣期。