近排，唔知大家有冇好似孫柏文一樣，突然感覺到啲投資銀行股票分析員影響力，好似多咗好多。未爆發次按帶來嘅金融風暴之前，啲分析員出報告，改吓啲評級、郁吓啲目標價，啲股價升跌有限。而大家亦會覺得，啲分析員喺報告裏面寫嘅嘢，有「亞媽係女人」之嫌。
不過，自從舊年8月爆發金融風暴之後，啲分析員喺冇新聞、新消息嘅情況之下出報告，都可以令股價勁郁。點解呢？例如前晚喺花旗國，雷曼兄弟有個分析員行出嚟話：「其實有條已經存在咗好耐嘅會計條例，如果兩大按揭信貸機構Freddie Mac同Fannie Mae唔想牴觸，就要集資好鬼多百億元。」
報告左右股價升跌
講真，花旗國樓價下跌就全世界都知。嗰兩間F字頭按揭信貸機構，做50倍槓桿，即係用2蚊資本，再借98蚊，做100蚊生意，呢個現實，就連我哋《蘋果日報》喺2年前都講過。咁點解雷曼兄弟只係重複舊話，居然可以令佢哋嘅股價一日之內跌17%？
無需要講到咁遠，睇番我哋特區。以前，當啲比我後生嘅人問我：「我想做分析員，有冇入門貼士？」我經常答：「做分析員工作其中最重要嘅一環，係要喺上市公司出業績前，能夠推算到公司業績。而如果想試吓，入門第一間分析嘅公司，就可以揀港交所（388）。試問有邊間上市公司，會每日好準時咁喺4點幾鐘，公佈當日嘅生意額？」
不過就算好似港交所咁嘅絕對高透明度公司，呢排都可以喺冇新聞情況之下，被分析員報告移動。點解呢？唔好同我話佢哋對港交所嘅分析特別有建樹，咪又係嗰四個字「成交額跌」。
如九十年代科網泡沫
其實如果要我估，情況可能返去90年代尾，花旗國股市。當年dotcom泡沫，好多新科技同埋新嘅營商模式出現，你可能喺雜誌或報紙見過，雖然講到好勁，不過你冇買嗰間公司嘅股票。但有分析員一講，就有權威肯定咗之前已經知嘅嘢。
咁嘅市，最難炒。因為如果新聞主導，大家可以同時間作反應。不過如果分析員主導，你又係咪佢肚裏面條蟲？知道佢又會舊話重提？
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Monday, July 07, 2008
港稅不上繳的原因
呢個周末，孫柏文睇電視見到一眾立法會議員北上四川。睇到佢哋走去視察吓，究竟特區政府要求撥款100億元，會攞嚟做乜。
其實作為一個政府，有啲界線係不能過。甚至乎踩界都會非常危險。呢次特首曾蔭權要求撥款畀四川，就可能過咗一條咁嘅大底線。
呢條底線係乜？當年，鄧小平收回香港，佢知道我哋香港人對好多嘢都擔心。唔好話政治動盪，帶嚟文革嗰種對生命同身體嘅威脅，淨係話政府要「共大家嘅產」都一定會令好多人即刻走。
政府攞市民財產嘅方法，就係抽稅，不過大家香港人，都好明白政府有啲錢一定要使，例如請差佬維持治安，請法官等大家可以打官司等。鄧小平知道抽稅同政府使錢，一定要令大家服，所以呢條就係嗰條底線。
一定要知錢嘅去向
「服」即係點解？即係政府攞香港人嘅錢用時，要清清楚楚。政府用錢，有用絕對ok。政府嘥錢，我哋唔會鍾意，不過都可以算數。我哋不能接受嘅係政府攞咗我哋嘅錢，跟住喺大家唔知道點樣用咗嘅情況之下，冇咗。
鄧小平明白，香港人要完完全全知道政府啲錢係點用。一但衍生一個機制，香港政府點用錢冇人知，特首同官員輕則浪費，嚴重就會出現貪污情況。到時候香港人唔「服」，一齊走，香港即時玩完。
鄧小平有自知之明，知道大陸共產黨領導之下嘅各級政府，講畀市民聽點用錢嘅資訊，比較少，未能達到香港人要求嘅標準。
如果大陸各級政府要攞香港人嘅錢，有「要中央撐腰先得」嘅特首，同被「愚忠扮愛國政客」充斥嘅立法會護航，香港人一定會畀。
不過因為使錢使得唔清楚，香港人（例如《蘋果日報》）一定會問好多問題。問得多，又會被人標籤為「反中亂港」。最後香港人惟有啞忍，心裏絕對唔「服」。
所以預見及此，為了避免分化港人，鄧小平一刀切，要求香港政府抽稅返嚟嘅錢，唔可以喺大陸用。如果當時你覺得鄧小平唔要香港人嘅稅，係想「益」香港人，你根本唔明白佢嘅用心。
曾特首今次踩過界
問題就係，曾蔭權想畀四川一百億，就係踩界。好在仲有范太明白鄧小平，識得問：「唔係100億或200億嘅問題，畀幾多可以慢慢傾，不過點使先？」曾蔭權今次挑戰鄧小平嘅智慧，究竟為乜？如果真係為政治化妝，曾蔭權真係過晒底線。唔會係嘛？
其實作為一個政府，有啲界線係不能過。甚至乎踩界都會非常危險。呢次特首曾蔭權要求撥款畀四川，就可能過咗一條咁嘅大底線。
呢條底線係乜？當年，鄧小平收回香港，佢知道我哋香港人對好多嘢都擔心。唔好話政治動盪，帶嚟文革嗰種對生命同身體嘅威脅，淨係話政府要「共大家嘅產」都一定會令好多人即刻走。
政府攞市民財產嘅方法，就係抽稅，不過大家香港人，都好明白政府有啲錢一定要使，例如請差佬維持治安，請法官等大家可以打官司等。鄧小平知道抽稅同政府使錢，一定要令大家服，所以呢條就係嗰條底線。
一定要知錢嘅去向
「服」即係點解？即係政府攞香港人嘅錢用時，要清清楚楚。政府用錢，有用絕對ok。政府嘥錢，我哋唔會鍾意，不過都可以算數。我哋不能接受嘅係政府攞咗我哋嘅錢，跟住喺大家唔知道點樣用咗嘅情況之下，冇咗。
鄧小平明白，香港人要完完全全知道政府啲錢係點用。一但衍生一個機制，香港政府點用錢冇人知，特首同官員輕則浪費，嚴重就會出現貪污情況。到時候香港人唔「服」，一齊走，香港即時玩完。
鄧小平有自知之明，知道大陸共產黨領導之下嘅各級政府，講畀市民聽點用錢嘅資訊，比較少，未能達到香港人要求嘅標準。
如果大陸各級政府要攞香港人嘅錢，有「要中央撐腰先得」嘅特首，同被「愚忠扮愛國政客」充斥嘅立法會護航，香港人一定會畀。
不過因為使錢使得唔清楚，香港人（例如《蘋果日報》）一定會問好多問題。問得多，又會被人標籤為「反中亂港」。最後香港人惟有啞忍，心裏絕對唔「服」。
所以預見及此，為了避免分化港人，鄧小平一刀切，要求香港政府抽稅返嚟嘅錢，唔可以喺大陸用。如果當時你覺得鄧小平唔要香港人嘅稅，係想「益」香港人，你根本唔明白佢嘅用心。
曾特首今次踩過界
問題就係，曾蔭權想畀四川一百億，就係踩界。好在仲有范太明白鄧小平，識得問：「唔係100億或200億嘅問題，畀幾多可以慢慢傾，不過點使先？」曾蔭權今次挑戰鄧小平嘅智慧，究竟為乜？如果真係為政治化妝，曾蔭權真係過晒底線。唔會係嘛？
Sunday, July 06, 2008
金手指貼士第二季總結
7月第一個交易日，係時候總結金手指篤過嘅「一注獨贏」貼士。可以用以下16個字做總結，「油價大上、油股好弱，黃金白銀、唔上唔落」。以下就係08年第三季嘅展望。
買白銀保購買力
白銀：自從3月大上跟住又大落之後，白銀雖然波幅頗大，不過只係微升幾毫子美元。第二季收報17.51美元一盎斯。其實，世界各國嘅銀行撇賬活動，已經進入第四季。每一次大幅撇賬，都要引入新資金。由中東、祖國、新加坡等嘅羊牯，都相繼試過中招，入股後睇住股價比入股價位一浪低於一浪。
有啲例如平保（2318），早前入股富通銀行之後，因為已經洗濕咗個頭，富通再要供股時，為保股權百分比，平保又再要泵水。問題就係天下羊牯雖然多，不過始終都會有用盡嘅一日。一旦再冇羊牯，又遇上啲中央銀行自己冇錢，啲國際級銀行又再風起雲湧。
到時候會否發生悲劇式嘅骨牌倒閉潮，就真係唔知囉。就算唔發生，中央銀行又再次相救，只要出現「要救」嘅情況，世界股市將會再出現動盪。大家要謹記，87年股災當日，花旗國股市得一個板塊升，就係金礦股。
孫柏文都未講世界爆發嘅通脹危機，令各地嘅有錢佬各出奇謀，去保護自己手上資產嘅購買力。所以有錢繼續買，一定冇後悔。作為白銀戰隊隊長「白銀文」...
維持原本建議：強力買入。
目標價：120美元一盎斯。
有效期至：2016年3月6日。
料中油可貼國際市價
中油香港（135）：如果半年前，你同我話一桶油價會六個月之內升40%，我會話你儍。如果你話油價升40%之後，冇下游業務嘅中油香港股價仲要跌差唔多30%，我會話你唔好當我儍。
不過現實就係咁。原因就係中油嗰兩個大陸油田開採出嚟嘅油，07年售價俾人gum住嚟搶。不過好處就係當07年俾人搶錢，08年只要搶錢情況冇惡化，大陸項目貢獻嘅盈利就會穩定下來。
而因為中油香港啲海外項目，賣油嘅價跟國際市價走，不但可以彌補大陸項目嘅倒退，仲應該可以推高中油總體利潤。等到半年業績出時，再作檢討。
維持原本建議：強力買入。
目標價： 8.05元。
有效期至：2008年10月24日。
買白銀保購買力
白銀：自從3月大上跟住又大落之後，白銀雖然波幅頗大，不過只係微升幾毫子美元。第二季收報17.51美元一盎斯。其實，世界各國嘅銀行撇賬活動，已經進入第四季。每一次大幅撇賬，都要引入新資金。由中東、祖國、新加坡等嘅羊牯，都相繼試過中招，入股後睇住股價比入股價位一浪低於一浪。
有啲例如平保（2318），早前入股富通銀行之後，因為已經洗濕咗個頭，富通再要供股時，為保股權百分比，平保又再要泵水。問題就係天下羊牯雖然多，不過始終都會有用盡嘅一日。一旦再冇羊牯，又遇上啲中央銀行自己冇錢，啲國際級銀行又再風起雲湧。
到時候會否發生悲劇式嘅骨牌倒閉潮，就真係唔知囉。就算唔發生，中央銀行又再次相救，只要出現「要救」嘅情況，世界股市將會再出現動盪。大家要謹記，87年股災當日，花旗國股市得一個板塊升，就係金礦股。
孫柏文都未講世界爆發嘅通脹危機，令各地嘅有錢佬各出奇謀，去保護自己手上資產嘅購買力。所以有錢繼續買，一定冇後悔。作為白銀戰隊隊長「白銀文」...
維持原本建議：強力買入。
目標價：120美元一盎斯。
有效期至：2016年3月6日。
料中油可貼國際市價
中油香港（135）：如果半年前，你同我話一桶油價會六個月之內升40%，我會話你儍。如果你話油價升40%之後，冇下游業務嘅中油香港股價仲要跌差唔多30%，我會話你唔好當我儍。
不過現實就係咁。原因就係中油嗰兩個大陸油田開採出嚟嘅油，07年售價俾人gum住嚟搶。不過好處就係當07年俾人搶錢，08年只要搶錢情況冇惡化，大陸項目貢獻嘅盈利就會穩定下來。
而因為中油香港啲海外項目，賣油嘅價跟國際市價走，不但可以彌補大陸項目嘅倒退，仲應該可以推高中油總體利潤。等到半年業績出時，再作檢討。
維持原本建議：強力買入。
目標價： 8.05元。
有效期至：2008年10月24日。
A Mental Challenge - Mobile phone media content (暫時置頂)
I am thinking about a very basic problem.
The holy grail of mobile content, is for people wanting their information or content presented on their mobile phone.
However, the biggest consideration of receiving information on a phone is how much easier for a user to wait to get to a desktop. If it is much better simply to get to a desk top to receive certain info, one would go to the desktop.
Therefore, this is the challenge I pose today... Please feel free to tell me in the comments section...
What kind of content do you rather prefer receiving on a phone than on a desktop.
Or in another words, what kind of information is better presented on a mobile device than at a desktop.
I give you all an example, I go clubbing with Ko Ming Fai of apple pie all the time. The information of "where ko ming fai is, in the club" is a piece of information I rather receive on a mobile device (because I am at the club) rather than at home or at work in front of the computer.
But this piece of information can be delivered to me via voice (because I can call him) or SMS. Also, this piece of info is only useful for me.
Here is the biggest challenge, are there any mass media type info or content, that would be better received on a phone vs a desktop?
And why would someone prefer that info on the phone vs the desktop?
I will leave this challenge open till Weds 9th July 11:30pm.
I will buy a lunch at Aspasia for person who came up with the best example. And we would be sipping champagne.
The holy grail of mobile content, is for people wanting their information or content presented on their mobile phone.
However, the biggest consideration of receiving information on a phone is how much easier for a user to wait to get to a desktop. If it is much better simply to get to a desk top to receive certain info, one would go to the desktop.
Therefore, this is the challenge I pose today... Please feel free to tell me in the comments section...
What kind of content do you rather prefer receiving on a phone than on a desktop.
Or in another words, what kind of information is better presented on a mobile device than at a desktop.
I give you all an example, I go clubbing with Ko Ming Fai of apple pie all the time. The information of "where ko ming fai is, in the club" is a piece of information I rather receive on a mobile device (because I am at the club) rather than at home or at work in front of the computer.
But this piece of information can be delivered to me via voice (because I can call him) or SMS. Also, this piece of info is only useful for me.
Here is the biggest challenge, are there any mass media type info or content, that would be better received on a phone vs a desktop?
And why would someone prefer that info on the phone vs the desktop?
I will leave this challenge open till Weds 9th July 11:30pm.
I will buy a lunch at Aspasia for person who came up with the best example. And we would be sipping champagne.
Friday, July 04, 2008
Damn, I got hoaxed!
Ok, Here's the article I wrote titled 買定put輪等睇戲, that was published Monday morning (June 30th) about Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippen predicting in Dutch the possibility of a "collapse" of the American financial system in a few weeks.
Anyhow, turns out to be a hoax. I guess Dow is going back to 15000 and the Hang Seng is now poised for a run for 32000... hahahahahHAHAHhaHAhHAhHAaaha
But I do wonder... Will because of this hoax being revealed, one of Fortis biggesty shareholder - Ping An (2318) Share price will recover...
Anyhow, turns out to be a hoax. I guess Dow is going back to 15000 and the Hang Seng is now poised for a run for 32000... hahahahahHAHAHhaHAhHAhHAaaha
But I do wonder... Will because of this hoax being revealed, one of Fortis biggesty shareholder - Ping An (2318) Share price will recover...
12 months chart of the Dow
12 months chart of the Hang Seng Index
5 days chart of Ping An (2318)
12 months chart of Ping An (2318)
Thursday, July 03, 2008
A conundrum
How can this and this be happening at the same time? A conundrum.
LA Times to cut 250 jobs, including 150 news jobs
and
LIMBAUGH SIGNS THROUGH 2016; $400 MILLION DEAL SHATTERS BROADCAST RECORDS
All about star power? One has to admit that traditional media is an extremely efficient revenue receiving platform for content providers such as I.
LA Times to cut 250 jobs, including 150 news jobs
and
LIMBAUGH SIGNS THROUGH 2016; $400 MILLION DEAL SHATTERS BROADCAST RECORDS
All about star power? One has to admit that traditional media is an extremely efficient revenue receiving platform for content providers such as I.
Chart of the day
This is the share price of the biggest property developer in UK - Taylor Wimpey
And you think HSBC will do well with its UK market in this shape?
And you think HSBC will do well with its UK market in this shape?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
