壹傳媒 變身 壹能源

噚日，孫柏文去完超級市場之後，喺街撞到隔籬《案內人隨筆》嘅尹思哲兄。我見到思哲兄就當然即刻入正題，問佢有冇留意近期股市最當炒嘅資源變身股，特別係前龍尾傳媒股──文化傳信。佢哋一傳可能變身，股價一日之內升一倍。因為思哲兄同 我都為《蘋果日報》寫嘢，所以就諗，如果龍頭傳媒股壹傳媒想嘅話，點樣可以變身資源股呢？幫公司諗到，股價升一倍，仲唔升官發財？

之後我一路返工都諗唔 到，就喺巴士到將軍澳垃圾堆填區旁邊嘅《蘋果日報》總部時，突然被一股堆填區吹嚟嘅惡臭，打通思維。以下就係壹傳媒嘅能源計劃。

首先，多年來困擾《蘋果日 報》嘅堆填區惡臭，就係壹傳媒變身嘅關鍵。啲臭沼氣，含有豐富嘅甲烷methane，亦即係大家熟悉嘅天然氣一樣。壹傳媒將會宣佈將堆填區嘅甲烷收集，興 建管道出售畀特區或華南，亦會宣佈改名做「壹能源 Next Energy」。

百年計劃三部曲

當然，一個好似我咁嘅小職員要 升官發財，條計一定要有遠見。好彩，雖然將軍澳堆填區嘅沼氣有限，不過開採堆填區都仲係個百年計劃，能源長採長有。沼氣用完之後，壹能源就會進行第二步計 劃，開採啲未分解嘅膠袋，到時嘅化工科技應該可將膠袋變電油。其實，大家每日棄置嘅膠袋，只係為本集團累積儲備。

而政府推行膠袋稅，只係因為知道有呢個計 劃，所以想進一步喺財政上向本集團施壓。政府知道，我哋嘅友報如果變成能源公司，都只會學諸葛孔明借東風，依靠風力發電，而佢嘅姊妹刊物就會用solar power發電，所以只打壓膠袋。

叫得做百年計劃，當然要預計埋廿二世紀嘅能源供應方法。到時候，膠袋應該已經開採完。所以，壹能源將會推行第三步計劃， 到時候將會有科技可以將港大醫學院遺棄嘅屍體，徹底復活，不過因為腦死亡，本集團就會將體溫變成能源出售。將人變成電池。到時，希望我嘅子子孫孫可以為集 團效犬馬之勞，不過冇得寫嘢，可以做保安、實Q。

上海A股不跌之謎

前日，孫柏文由九龍「飛的」（fly dick）出中環做有線電視節目《Money cafe》嘅嘉賓。到中環嘅時候，就決定煲番支雪茄，喺上節目之前可以定一定驚，思路都可以清晰啲。大家都知道，自從1月1日室內地方全面禁煙之後，煙民 可以食煙嘅地方就所餘無幾，而街邊嘅垃圾桶就變成我哋嘅聚集地。

正當我企喺垃圾桶嘅一邊煲煙，第二邊就有一個一手抓住電話、另一手抓住張申請新股「白表」 嘅嬸嬸。嗰位嬸嬸，眼望垃圾桶，不過就一路講電話解釋某間即將上市嘅公司，究竟做啲乜嘢業務。見到此情此景，我非常安慰，證明我哋特區啲散戶係有做功課先 至抽新股。正當我陶醉於此情此景，嬸嬸突然望高，同我雙目交投。佢一見到我就話：「你咪就係金手指？」 我笑一笑點頭，正當我沾沾自喜嘅時候，佢就以非常凝重嘅聲線話：「一注獨贏買和黃呀嘛！我聽你講買咗啦！」

我即時反應就係心諗：「大鑊！又令fan屎失 望。」所以我就話：「和黃真係郁都唔郁，3冇新消息，我都冇辦法。」不過我講完之後，fan屎嬸嬸轉用非常祥和嘅聲線話：「我都知道，所以我都未放。」聽 佢講完，我都即時冇咁尷尬，笑咗一笑。跟住fan屎嬸嬸就繼續講電話。

講真，和黃嘅3同埋新推出嘅收費模式X-Series真係冇乜新消息，我都係耐唔耐 上搜尋blog好叻嘅icerocket.com，睇吓前宗主國用戶有乜嘢講。我諗大家都要等和黃出中期業績先知道3係點。

Pigs can fly

其 實，和黃唔郁令我尷尬嘅理由係，今時今日真係乜叉都升，冇辦法牛市末期、禾雀亂飛。而近期升得最誇張嘅股票類別，肯定係啲資源變身股。噚日，就連做傳媒、 出版嘅文化傳信，都因被傳可能變身成為資源股，所以升咗一倍。

番鬼佬有一句說話：「Pigs don't fly.」即係話啲豬兜股暴升，遲早會跌番落來。不過，呢句說話就敗露咗啲鬼佬嘅科學常識，始終冇我哋祖國人民咁先進。因為佢哋只係將隻豬用手拋上天空， 當然會跌番落來。不過，我哋祖國就一早發明火藥，繼而成功開發火箭，明白就算係飛豬上天，只要有足夠嘅火箭推動力，隻豬都會進入太空軌迹，唔會下跌。

上海 A股已經日日證明pigs can fly！仲要stay in orbit o忝！所以，咪話豬兜股不受地心吸力影響，只係推動力太強。

睇市邊個最廢

噚日，孫柏文復出寫《金手指》。點知篇文一出街，就有個叫「cat fukwai」嘅熱心fan屎寫電郵嚟慶祝我回歸。

呢位fan屎嘅電郵，主旨係「孫柏文──恬不知恥」，話我噚日自稱係一個「專業、負責任嘅財經口水 佬」，又叫大家買我只喜愛嘅白銀。不過隻字不提我喺06年最後一個交易日推介嘅H股指數Put輪3497。如果大家有留意開股市，特別係H股指數，就應該 知道H指呢排屢次挑戰高位，所以隻認沽證由推介日嘅0.17元，下跌至0.026元，跌幅達86%。

亦因為噚日我冇講呢隻3497，所以令cat fukwai得出一個非常合理嘅結論：「蝕了86%，他就畏罪潛逃，避開一個月，如今回來，一句不提，竟自稱為一個專業、負責任嘅財經口水佬，實在恬不知 恥。貴報有此種人，實為財經界之不幸。」

首先，真係好不幸。因為孫柏文都仲係成手3497，如果大家當日都有買呢隻Put輪，而到今日都未放，我就只可以 同大家講：「同舟人，誓相隨，有血更有淚。」

「有血」因為要蝕錢，「更有淚」嘅原因係H指喺06年最後一個交易日收報 10340點（見圖）。不過，短短兩個幾月之後，下跌至3月5日收市嘅8528點，跌幅有17.5%。隻3497亦最高見0.305元，比推介價高 80%。因為當時我冇叫大家賣咗佢，所以令到cat fukwai寫電郵嚟。


孫柏文今次放假，有機會坐低檢討自己嘅無能。究竟有啲乜嘢，我係做唔到。其中一樣，就係睇大市轉勢。如果問我：「眾財經口水佬中， 講宏觀分析，睇大市邊個最廢？」就一定係我，孫柏文。

雖然，結論應該係「孫柏文唔好再做宏觀分析」，不過我一定忍唔住再做。如果他朝又見我做宏觀分析，到 時要醒水，將我當做明燈就最安全！聽日，我就講我啲微觀分析。

重申一注獨贏買白銀

各位《金手指》嘅fan屎，I'm back！首先，孫柏文要感謝嗰啲自從我喺5月1日開始放假，寫信嚟《蘋果日報》「問候」我嘅fan屎。而我都想用呢個機會闢一闢謠，冇錯，我放假唔係因為腳痛。雖然放假期間真係試過俾我老竇一棍、一棍咁揼，不過同楊傳廣、董建華呢啲漢族中嘅鐵人一樣，我都好快好番。

放假最大娛樂，就係同人傾偈。由本地淫窟中人解釋科技對佢嗰行嘅衝擊，到見沙地國家石油公司Saudi Aramco嘅人解釋點解蝕本都要喺祖國做煉油生意，令我增廣見聞，先至開始知道自己係一隻井底之蛙，游吓、游吓。

不過放假有得就必定有失，先嚟中石油（857）令溫總瞓唔着，再有QDII同「冇料」三招宏觀調控。仲有個超級低B仔，淨係整條超連結hyperlink出嚟，就話自己有罪。

睇個走勢就知點解

當然不能不提班民主派立法會議員，喺《中大學生報》度，好似食咗啞仔藥咁，水淨鵝飛。早知面對呢個情況佢哋會咁，就投票民建聯，起碼有荔枝、蛇宴同肉餅食。今次復出，就當係《金手指》2.0面世，好似《Star Wars》（星戰前傳）第一同第二集咁，我發現，原來孫柏文有個dark side。所以如果大家喺未來感覺到《金手指》有唔同，就係咁解。

作為一個專業、負責任嘅財經口水佬，最後我要為大家提供一個投資建議。相信各位《金手指》嘅忠實fan屎，睇到條題，都已經知道今日孫柏文又 再叫大家買白銀。如果只係提供一個理由點解一定要今日買白銀，相信睇圖就夠（見圖）。圖上記低咗對上三次「重申一注獨贏買白銀」，之後點大家自己睇。


不過 一定要謹記，買白銀要買實貨，而喺兩個禮拜前嘅「《蘋果日報》投資講座」，我應承過教大家點買。喺特區裏面就有間加拿大公司叫做Kitco嘅有得賣，佢哋 嘅電話係2827 7800，我冇收錢賣廣告，我只係以前幫襯過，覺得佢哋幾好，所以你哋都可以打去問一問！千祈唔好話我介紹，佢哋根本唔識我。

Time to pay them a visit? Inmedia? hkgolden?

福佳始終有你 - 視像版

Well done boys...

Well done...

明報... 硬膠

明報膠

How to squeeze Iran...

Alright, you are George W Bush. And here are the facts...

1. Iran is acting up and defying your wish
2. We live in a hydrocarbon economy where oil drives everything
3. Iran exports crude oil but imports gasoline
4. Iran faces a poor economy with high unemployment and inflation
5. Iranian government subsidizes heavily the gasoline sold to the Iranian public
6. Iranian government fiscal position is poor

Now... What would you do as GWB to squeeze the Iranian government?

Have a show of naval force off the coast of Iran?

hahahahahha.. please...

This is what he is doing...

Have "more than usual" refinery outages in the US, so that crude demand falls. Leading to crude prices remaining flat (squeezing Iranian government income)

However, because less gasoline is produced in the US, it is now importing huge amounts of gasoline from overseas.

Resulting in global gasoline price rise.

Now, Iranian government subsidizes gasoline. Which means every litre of gasoline sold will result in a loss for the government. With gasoline prices rising, the only thing the Iranian can do is either absorb losses (increasing Iranian government spending), or raise prices at the pump (squeezing Iranian government's popular support)

no... rationing is ruled out.

They chose to raise prices by 25%, which still results in prices substantially lower than global prices.

And people there are pissed, because their wallets are squeezed.

Furthermore, the Iranian government in its desire to relieve the wallets of the people of Iran announced simultaneously that interest rates "has to be lowered" to 12% by diktat. Resulting in Iranian Banks Shares collapse.

Isn't it wonderful how you can destablize a foreign hostile regime just by offlining a few refineries in Texas? All the time enriching your friends in the oil business (ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Singapore et al.) and squeezing every single oil/gasoline importing nation (ie. China)

A song for your mp3 player...

The internet has unleashed some very good creative talent...

Check this out...

袁彌明 vs Stephy

To paraphrase our modern day bard Justin...

袁彌明 vs Stephy is One Good Show!

Honestly... Nothing beats a good cat fight *meow*... When the hair gets pulled and the face gets scratched...

Well, perhaps the only thing that beats a cat fight, is if 袁彌明 and Stephy duke it out like this. Now if NOW puts it on pay per view, I am so paying to watch it.

Blackstone deal...

See... I have no clue why the Chinese govt is actually taking a stake in Blackstone itself.

Why play up the China Fear Factor? Why not just invest into the funds they set up.

Returns is not something the top priority for the Chinese govt. They should invest into a fund run by Blackstone, and then let them be the front to acquire various business. So that when CNOOC's $18.5b is worth "less" than Chevron's $17.1b (US dollar in the hands of Chinaman has less value apparantly), they can ask Blackstone to buy for them.

Sort of like a rich man putting money into an arm's length trust, so that the trust executes "independently" the wish of the rich man.

Jut because you have money in the Magellan fund doesn't mean you need to buy Fidelity's shares...

Or am I missing something here...

More updates on China's cooling methods

Our Central government announced 3 measures on Friday to deflate the bubble in equities.

1. increased reserve requirements

2. Raise the savings and loans rate, with savings rates raised more than loans rate

3. Widen the band of appreciation for the Yuan

Here's the update.

On measure (3.), I still think it is a sop to Donaldson to bring back to Pelosi's congress

On measure (2.), it was a reverse of the widening of the interest spread announced a while back. So it seems like a no big deal.

On measure (1.), this is the most interesting. Anyone who has done a couple of classes on banking in school, knows about the multiplier effect of any increase in reserve requirements. Now, an interesting analysis from Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust.

The basic thesis is this...

If reserve requirement ratio increases, that means less money available for loans. Therefore, the inter bank lending rates between Chinese banks should rise.

However, looking at the chart, inter bank lending rates has been falling.

That means there are so much new deposits that there are plenty of money to meet lending needs.

The question is, where are the new deposits coming in from? Retail savers are ploughing all their cash into the stock market.

Kasriel's thesis is if you look at the money the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shoving into the banking system, there has been substantial increase in deposits placed into banks by the PBOC.

The question is why... Why are they implementing so many measures, yet neutralizing - sterilizing the very effect of cooling that was intended...

I have no clue yet. Will talk about the Black stone investment tomorrow.

China's cooling methods...

Our Central government has just announced 3 measures to deflate the bubble in equities.

1. increased reserve requirements

2. Raise the savings and loans rate, with savings rates raised more than loans rate

3. Widen the band of appreciation for the Yuan

Now... I think measure 3, will worsen the stock market bubble, so I do not think it was designed to prick the bubble. It is more a sop to Donaldson, so that he can bring something back to Pelosi's congress.

The raising of deposit ratio (1.) should work in the fractional banking system. But after so many hikes, will this be the one that breaks the camel's back?

I think 2. is ingenious. It works on various levels...

(a) On the surface, it attracts capital back to savings,

(b) Or at the very least, reduce the acceptable PE ratios on stock. Every doubling of interest rates = to a reduction by half of acceptable PE (at least thats the theory)

(c) Finally, by raising savings rate more than loans rate, it attacks directly at the yield spread of Chinese banks. Thereby any calculation of profit forecast will now have to be redone. Even if PE valuation doesn't change (which is not possible with reduced profit growth rates), having reduced profit will knock share prices.

Or at least thats the theory, who knows, perhaps we will get our very own Maria Bartiromo moment of "5000 points" in a couple of months over at Shanghai

支持《中大學生報》！

支持《中大學生報》，反對干預學生編採自主。

反對中大校方干預言論自由。

網上聯署支持！

Please spread the link and petition. Time for the silent majority in Hong Kong to fight back!

Post 條 link 都拉？？？

食屎。

點解冇垃圾會議員出來，支持通訊自由？？

食屎。