Monday, July 09, 2007

和黃3有救 你今日先知?


上個禮拜五,和黃(013)升咗6.3%,收83元,六年新高。買咗真係三年又三年。

升得咁勁嘅原因,我諗係因喺禮拜五相繼有瑞信Credit Suisse 同埋美林 Merrill Lynch出報告挺和黃。孫柏文作為特區絕無僅有、叫大家「一注獨贏買和黃」嘅財經口水佬,當然第一時間睇睇啲報告講乜。

一睇,就發覺原來兩份報告都話和黃嘅3G電訊業務有救,而3有救嘅原因,就係因「數據服務」增長應會非常強勁。「數據服務data service」究竟係乜?咪就係用手機上網囉!

吹水唔抹嘴

講 電話、send短訊等嘅活動,消費者將會全面靠上網做,所以根本無可能有額外收費,如果無線電訊公司早啲覺悟,簡簡單單專注「無線寬頻上網服務」佢哋就有 機會突圍。

和黃嘅3喺舊年11月宣佈推出,有如大家屋企寬頻上網服務咁簡單、易明嘅「無線寬頻上網服務」。呢個收費文化大革命就叫做X-Series,我 記得和黃CFO陸法蘭宣佈之後嗰日,我就第一次叫大家「一注獨贏買和黃」。因為我信X-Series會救番3,而3一冇事,和黃股價仲唔升?

不過我記得當 時,好多分析員對X-Series隻字不提。就算有講X-Series嘅報告,都話作用不大,有個我唔記得乜名嘅分析員,直情話X-Series係個 「gimmick」花招。6蚊就可以買份《蘋果日報》,真係唔知要幾多錢先可以睇到嗰份報告。

講真,真係唔可以怪今時今日啲分析員,唔睇啲電訊公司嘅新服 務或收費模式。因為以前睇新服務、產品,繼而叫大家去買電訊股嘅分析員,已經喺dotcom泡沫爆破之後炒晒,仲要被批評為「吹水唔抹嘴」。今時今日啲分 析員「好實在」,淨係睇數,亦引以為榮。我諗淨係得番啲睇Apple Inc嘅分析員,先至睇新服務、產品究竟係乜,出買賣建議。

重申買和黃

今日,孫柏文重申一注獨贏買和黃,維持強力買入建議,目標價100元,有效至今年11月21日。

後記:可能因我以前係一個石油分析員,《金手指》一欄其實講過好多資源股,不過好多時,喺街見到啲fan屎,佢哋往往只記得我貼過一隻股票,就係和記黃埔。呢個真係Blue Ocean Strategy嘅text book case。

5 comments:

  1. Agree, Pak Man. I think buying stock of course need to be prudent; but if we just blindly stick to believing your eyes (on the balance sheet), thnn it is no longer called investment. It is called follower.

    Bravo

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  2. Well, the dot com bust really wiped out a lot of product based analysts.

    Can't blame them for being fired tho... eye balls? hahahahha

    Shuen

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  3. 6年新高,7年家鄉未返呀!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hm, Pak Man, there are two kinds of product based analyst. One is first class who based on insights, the other is second class who based their product analysis on superficial phenomena, add a bit of imagination and then indefinitely extrapolate. Fire them all is to save the public; otherwise, it is too easy for them to earn salary.

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  5. hahahaha

    true.

    Alot of analysts are 9 up.

    In fact, when I was younger, I called them Anal Licks.

    Then because of Karma, I became one myself.

    ReplyDelete