3月9日，恒指收11344點，跟住就一支箭咁升，到上星期五收14119點。3個禮拜升25%。
花旗國一樣，標普500指數由3月6日嘅低位，一升就升22%。
食中呢個浪，今年已可收工等花紅。
升市火箭冇咗一截
相信大家想問嘅問題係：「係咪繼續升先？」
咁孫柏文就要反問大家：「個市靠乜升咗3個禮拜先？」
如果你話係因當今世上至勁股市分析員，花旗總統奧巴馬喺3月3日話股價合理，可長揸，咁我就要攞塊笑聲拍板出嚟打吓你個頭。
其實今次升市，係支有兩段燃料推進器嘅火箭。
第一段，就係月初啲花旗國銀行紛紛走出嚟話1、2月嘅業績好掂。係咪真係掂？嗰陣已有人玩踢爆，不過因拋空咗嘅人太多，淡友認為博唔過，搞到個個都買貨平倉。
火箭第二段，就係財長蓋特納嘅「將聯儲局印咗嘅鈔票，轉移畀啲銀行，去換毒資產」計劃。
不過，啲銀行大佬就喺上個禮拜五話，3月生意難做，推翻1、2月好掂，生意復蘇嘅憧憬。股市冇咗呢個因素推動，大家小心。
拒國有化保烏紗
其實，啲銀行3月初時話1、2月好掂，係因為當時國有化風吹得好行，一話自己掂，政府即時冇藉口國有化，銀行高層先保住烏紗。
到鈔票轉移計劃落實之後，就可以講番真話，話自己唔掂，跟住攞錢。咁多消息，全部都係啲銀行嘅大龍鳳。
Monday, March 30, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
香島中學三劍俠 其實佢哋搞緊乜？
呢三條搞炸彈嘅朋友，喺香島中學讀書。
佢哋個校長黃頌良就話，佢哋喜歡探究及創作（no shit, BUT a good thing!...）。
校長又話，其中一個姓劉嘅同學，今年加入學校嘅機械人學會，跟D亞sir學造機械人，仲要羅過獎。
ok,個問題係，佢哋對 robotics 同 munition 咁有興趣。其實佢哋搞緊D乜？
冇錯，佢哋其實喺到研製緊...
Saturday, March 28, 2009
支持立法會內議員有講粗口自由！
立法會議員嘅職責，係喺代議政制嘅模式下代表投咗票俾佢嘅市民。
即係幫市民講野。
08年，孫柏文係投咗票俾黃毓民。黃毓民即係代表我講野。
以前都講過，一個社會能聽到粗口，幾難聽都好，都等於個個社會係有言論自由。呢個相信好多香港人會同意，如果唔係，公民黨譚香文唔會輸得咁慘。
議事廳中，呢個自由更重要。因為當議員幫市民出聲時，言論自由被鉗制，議員就不能有效代表市民。
所以議事廳中議員嘅言論自由，係應壓倒一切。
A Legislative Councillor's freedom to speak unhindered, should be a right that rules supreme in the chambers of Legco.
仲有，行政機關嘅人，由特首打落，係冇權話立法會議員應該講D乜同唔應該講D乜。因為呢個係立法機關嘅「家事」。
至於係咪教壞細路，議員嘅工作係代表市民去議政，佢哋份工唔係做小朋友嘅偶像。
教壞細路嘅唔係D咩粗口，而係個30個功能組別議員嘅存在。連功能組別呢個概念都話可以接受，呢個message先係最荼毒小朋友！
即係幫市民講野。
08年，孫柏文係投咗票俾黃毓民。黃毓民即係代表我講野。
以前都講過，一個社會能聽到粗口，幾難聽都好，都等於個個社會係有言論自由。呢個相信好多香港人會同意，如果唔係，公民黨譚香文唔會輸得咁慘。
議事廳中，呢個自由更重要。因為當議員幫市民出聲時，言論自由被鉗制，議員就不能有效代表市民。
所以議事廳中議員嘅言論自由，係應壓倒一切。
A Legislative Councillor's freedom to speak unhindered, should be a right that rules supreme in the chambers of Legco.
仲有，行政機關嘅人，由特首打落，係冇權話立法會議員應該講D乜同唔應該講D乜。因為呢個係立法機關嘅「家事」。
至於係咪教壞細路，議員嘅工作係代表市民去議政，佢哋份工唔係做小朋友嘅偶像。
教壞細路嘅唔係D咩粗口，而係個30個功能組別議員嘅存在。連功能組別呢個概念都話可以接受，呢個message先係最荼毒小朋友！
1 min 40 sec mark.
Friday, March 27, 2009
黎潔瑩(黎三萬) - 冇得撈 定係 gardening leave？
呢到有報導話亞黎三萬冇得撈。
報導話個集《星期日檔案》一出街，就冇番工。
點解呢？
係咪因網友圍剿？
點都好，高登仔當然有傾呢單野。
結論？
以下就係討論區其中兩幅圖，能反映高登仔點睇黎三萬冇工番。
Krispycrap 就搞咗好多幅圖，去表達佢對黎三萬冇工番嘅諗法。以下係其中一幅 krispy 兄嘅睇法。
不過...喺之前個黎潔瑩entry嘅留言區，港燦兄好有火咁留言 (scroll down to his comment)...
不過係解釋到點解節目一出街，佢就冇撈。一係真係精心步署，就算唔係，都可能被 Amanda Tann 睇中，即刻簽佢。
講真，投行人轉行，都要過冷河放 gardening leave，所以黎潔瑩可能唔係冇得撈，只係放假。
黎三萬，好快就變黎九萬？
報導話個集《星期日檔案》一出街，就冇番工。
點解呢？
係咪因網友圍剿？
點都好，高登仔當然有傾呢單野。
結論？
以下就係討論區其中兩幅圖，能反映高登仔點睇黎三萬冇工番。
Krispycrap 就搞咗好多幅圖，去表達佢對黎三萬冇工番嘅諗法。以下係其中一幅 krispy 兄嘅睇法。
不過...喺之前個黎潔瑩entry嘅留言區，港燦兄好有火咁留言 (scroll down to his comment)...
港燦 said...
人地精心步署自己成為城中熱話，收成正果。
傳聞 amanda tann 出到九皮野一個月從佢以前任職個間補習社撬走佢。
各位港男，一味上網玩起底，最終只係被人利用。
大家繼續做毒撚吧。
HK 已被阿公一步步邊緣化，港男重拾下拾下，唔好話 4K 一個月，屎都無得食呀。
不過係解釋到點解節目一出街，佢就冇撈。一係真係精心步署，就算唔係，都可能被 Amanda Tann 睇中，即刻簽佢。
講真，投行人轉行，都要過冷河放 gardening leave，所以黎潔瑩可能唔係冇得撈，只係放假。
黎三萬，好快就變黎九萬？
中油香港 請不要食言
「雖然現在的原油價格低迷，但增加公司的原油儲備量，乃公司的策略及長遠目標，在原油價格回升時，將為股東帶來最佳回報。」── 2009年3月25日中油香港（135）業績公佈裏面嘅管理層討論與分析咁樣寫。
噚日，孫柏文07年叫大家「一注獨贏」買嘅中油香港出咗舊年全年業績。睇大數。油公司賣油價冇自主權跟國際價，公司全年平均賣油價每桶升33%，收入就升35%。合理。
油價冇自主權
不過我成日話，中油香港採油成本高，一旦售價升，毛利率就會槓桿式咁升。所以一望見中油香港盈利升69%時，覺得公司成功充當「冇到期日嘅油價認購證」角色。
仲因舊年公司積極回購自己股票，股數下跌令每股盈利升幅仲勁，升72%。以噚日收市價計，市盈率4.7倍。依家有末期息15 仙，等於股息率有4.3%，算對得住股東。
不過業績始終係睇過去，回望已冇人信嘅decoupled世界。
未來係點？全球石油嘅總可生產量會不斷下跌，淨係睇中油香港下半年勁縮勘探成本都知乜事。
出去執平價油田
雖然舊年公司買咗好多黃豆咁大粒嘅天然氣業務，大家都知天然氣冇得走私，國際價格升，國內冇份，天然氣係冇令盈利爆上嘅能力。
不過首段引述管理層嘅承諾，我只可以話：「請不要食言！用手頭上嘅50億現金同存款，走出去執平價油田吧！」
噚日，孫柏文07年叫大家「一注獨贏」買嘅中油香港出咗舊年全年業績。睇大數。油公司賣油價冇自主權跟國際價，公司全年平均賣油價每桶升33%，收入就升35%。合理。
油價冇自主權
不過我成日話，中油香港採油成本高，一旦售價升，毛利率就會槓桿式咁升。所以一望見中油香港盈利升69%時，覺得公司成功充當「冇到期日嘅油價認購證」角色。
仲因舊年公司積極回購自己股票，股數下跌令每股盈利升幅仲勁，升72%。以噚日收市價計，市盈率4.7倍。依家有末期息15 仙，等於股息率有4.3%，算對得住股東。
不過業績始終係睇過去，回望已冇人信嘅decoupled世界。
未來係點？全球石油嘅總可生產量會不斷下跌，淨係睇中油香港下半年勁縮勘探成本都知乜事。
出去執平價油田
雖然舊年公司買咗好多黃豆咁大粒嘅天然氣業務，大家都知天然氣冇得走私，國際價格升，國內冇份，天然氣係冇令盈利爆上嘅能力。
不過首段引述管理層嘅承諾，我只可以話：「請不要食言！用手頭上嘅50億現金同存款，走出去執平價油田吧！」
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Chicago expected to replace some police patrols with private security...
I saw this link on Drudge that sent me to this piece.
I know who they are going to outsource to.
Omni Consumer Products
And the patrolling device?
Chicago expected to replace some police patrols with private security...
They're private security guards, already on patrol, but they may soon have the powers of Chicago Police officers.
As CBS 2 Chief Correspondent Jay Levine reports, the private security officers now on patrol on the city's Far South Side are expected to have their powers expanded as part of a citywide ordinance now being prepared.
But officials are questioning whether this means public safety is being outsourced...
Further reading...
I know who they are going to outsource to.
Omni Consumer Products
And the patrolling device?
"...Drop your weapons, you have 15 seconds to comply..."
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
請葛霖快攞美政府錢
今日大家睇《金手指》前，請你睇咗美財長蓋特納個救銀行計劃先。如果已睇咗，以下就係個計劃嘅問題。
1.救到銀行不過市民一樣冇錢借。
之前，孫柏文都講過澳洲前總理基廷話，蓋特納醫病成日斷錯症。 97年亞洲金融風暴，代表花旗財政部搞到印尼唔使死都死咗。
呢個計劃，係蓋特納覺得啲平民借唔到錢，原因係銀行手上有太多毒資產，所以銀行唔放債。問題係，信貸收縮係首先因「證券化」系統瓦解，呢個計劃冇幫助。第二就係銀行唔放債，唔係銀行想放債不過冇錢，而係銀行唔覺得啲新債仔有還款能力。
呢個計劃就算塞錢入銀行，市民一樣冇錢借。
救銀行計劃三死穴
2.冇交代拍賣有冇底價。
如果拍賣啲問題資產係有賣方定嘅底價，如果買方出價唔夠。銀行一樣好似依家咁，有人出價不過唔賣。如果係冇底價，賣方根本連博都慳番，一於唔參與，亦即同依家一樣。
3.買方同賣方打籠通。
因為買方將可能有高達九成嘅錢由政府出，所以就算天價買會輸自己錢先，賣方銀行可能會場外回佣畀買方基金經理。即再一次搵納稅人笨。仲要因今次計劃毋須國會批准，透明度會極低。
即係點解？即係明益啲銀行啦！葛霖快啲攞美國政府錢排毒，你一話攞，滙控（ 005）即見 70元！
1.救到銀行不過市民一樣冇錢借。
之前，孫柏文都講過澳洲前總理基廷話，蓋特納醫病成日斷錯症。 97年亞洲金融風暴，代表花旗財政部搞到印尼唔使死都死咗。
呢個計劃，係蓋特納覺得啲平民借唔到錢，原因係銀行手上有太多毒資產，所以銀行唔放債。問題係，信貸收縮係首先因「證券化」系統瓦解，呢個計劃冇幫助。第二就係銀行唔放債，唔係銀行想放債不過冇錢，而係銀行唔覺得啲新債仔有還款能力。
呢個計劃就算塞錢入銀行，市民一樣冇錢借。
救銀行計劃三死穴
2.冇交代拍賣有冇底價。
如果拍賣啲問題資產係有賣方定嘅底價，如果買方出價唔夠。銀行一樣好似依家咁，有人出價不過唔賣。如果係冇底價，賣方根本連博都慳番，一於唔參與，亦即同依家一樣。
3.買方同賣方打籠通。
因為買方將可能有高達九成嘅錢由政府出，所以就算天價買會輸自己錢先，賣方銀行可能會場外回佣畀買方基金經理。即再一次搵納稅人笨。仲要因今次計劃毋須國會批准，透明度會極低。
即係點解？即係明益啲銀行啦！葛霖快啲攞美國政府錢排毒，你一話攞，滙控（ 005）即見 70元！
Monday, March 23, 2009
歐元必贏美元除非……
某國家的央行印鈔，印完就畀該國政府用，呢個就叫「量化寬鬆政策」。
以前市場有100件產品、100元流通，每件產品價平均1元。央行印多30元畀政府用，產品數目不變，平均價升至1.3元。你個袋裏面嘅一蚊，已買唔到嘢。呢個就係啲人點解驚「量化政策」，點解要拋售該國貨幣。
歐央行唔會印鈔救市
聯儲局印鈔畀花旗國政府，所以啲人就唔要美元。不過有冇央行唔可以印鈔畀政府用？其實係有。因為呢間央行「冇政府管」，起碼冇單一政府可以指指點點，呢間就係歐洲央行。
講話要印鈔救市，南歐嗰班PIGS（Portugal葡萄牙、Italy意大利、Greece希臘、Spain西班牙）要救嘅迫切性，肯定高過花旗國。
不過歐央行係唔可以印鈔買成員國嘅國債，因為買一個國家嘅債，其他成員國一定要佢買埋其他歐國國債。鐵索連舟，政治成本太高。
只要市場覺得聯儲局會「量化」而歐央行唔會，歐元必贏美元，歐元必繼續升。
孫柏文諗諗吓，發現歐元瓦解嘅路線圖。
今年初唔少人開始問，一旦歐洲全面被海嘯冲擊，歐元會唔會瓦解？如果會，路線圖係點？
要瓦解，先要有國家退出。大家一定以為最想退出係啲想自己印鈔「量化」嘅國家，咁諗就大錯特錯。因為呢啲國家已享受咗太耐歐元嘅低息，一旦退出，新貨幣利息即刻飛升。要退一定係強勢退出。
一印鈔歐元區即散
咁歐元區最會強勢退出嘅肯定係德國。如果歐洲啲弱勢國，成功迫到歐央行印鈔買各弱勢國嘅國債，德國退出指日可待。理由係德國以前試過因通脹令希特拉上台，所以非常恐懼通脹。
如果德國退出，歐元就……
所以大家一定要睇實究竟歐央行有冇印鈔舉動，因為唔似美元，歐央行一印「量化」，歐元就玩完。
以前市場有100件產品、100元流通，每件產品價平均1元。央行印多30元畀政府用，產品數目不變，平均價升至1.3元。你個袋裏面嘅一蚊，已買唔到嘢。呢個就係啲人點解驚「量化政策」，點解要拋售該國貨幣。
歐央行唔會印鈔救市
聯儲局印鈔畀花旗國政府，所以啲人就唔要美元。不過有冇央行唔可以印鈔畀政府用？其實係有。因為呢間央行「冇政府管」，起碼冇單一政府可以指指點點，呢間就係歐洲央行。
講話要印鈔救市，南歐嗰班PIGS（Portugal葡萄牙、Italy意大利、Greece希臘、Spain西班牙）要救嘅迫切性，肯定高過花旗國。
不過歐央行係唔可以印鈔買成員國嘅國債，因為買一個國家嘅債，其他成員國一定要佢買埋其他歐國國債。鐵索連舟，政治成本太高。
只要市場覺得聯儲局會「量化」而歐央行唔會，歐元必贏美元，歐元必繼續升。
孫柏文諗諗吓，發現歐元瓦解嘅路線圖。
今年初唔少人開始問，一旦歐洲全面被海嘯冲擊，歐元會唔會瓦解？如果會，路線圖係點？
要瓦解，先要有國家退出。大家一定以為最想退出係啲想自己印鈔「量化」嘅國家，咁諗就大錯特錯。因為呢啲國家已享受咗太耐歐元嘅低息，一旦退出，新貨幣利息即刻飛升。要退一定係強勢退出。
一印鈔歐元區即散
咁歐元區最會強勢退出嘅肯定係德國。如果歐洲啲弱勢國，成功迫到歐央行印鈔買各弱勢國嘅國債，德國退出指日可待。理由係德國以前試過因通脹令希特拉上台，所以非常恐懼通脹。
如果德國退出，歐元就……
所以大家一定要睇實究竟歐央行有冇印鈔舉動，因為唔似美元，歐央行一印「量化」，歐元就玩完。
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Silver... 3 days to remember...
對上一次孫柏文有咁嘅感覺... 就係喺07年8月20日。
即係宣佈會有「資金自由行、港股直通車」個日。
第一日宣佈時，來個股市大反彈，升1200點。由禮拜五收市嘅20387去到禮拜一嘅21595點。個日仲要係烈口高開，一開已升咗700幾點。咁你敢唔敢追？
問題係要追，升咗1200點，係咪升完？
相信個日你冇追，你好可能升上32000點嘅車程一D都冇參與。
今次聯儲局宣佈印鈔票買國債，就係對黃金、白銀嘅「資金自由行、港股直通車」式通告。
由宣佈一刻至今3日，白銀由US＄11.8 升至 US$13.7 一安斯... 追定係唔追？
Friday, March 20, 2009
S&P 500 Stops Dead in its Tracks At 50-DMA
An Observation from Bespoke...
As shown in the candlestick chart of the S&P 500 below, the index tested and then failed at its 50-day moving average resistance this morning. After a gain of nearly 20% off of its lows, the index is experiencing a bit of a pullback today. The 50-day is right at the 800 level for the S&P, and if the index can eventually break through it, it will then act as support instead of an upside barrier.
印鈔後點解唔用直升機
「量化寬鬆措施」，聽到都悶。可能因任總怕我地悶親，所以噚日就對記者直言，話前晚聯儲局宣佈買長債，係啓動印鈔機。印象中任總應該係第一個咁講，金融海嘯又一里程碑。唔記得其他央行行長有冇咁講過。
其實真係要落實「印鈔票推出街」政策，個過程係點呢？
以前，就真係用印刷機印。大家唔好誤會鈔票印多咗，帶來污染，要做到「印多啲」就只要鈔票上嘅面額加啲零就得。電腦年代連呢步都慳番。
問題係，啲鈔票要散到，散完又唔可以被人收集，一定要用咗，先有效。
咁伯南克個花朵「Helicopter Ben」，已透露咗佢上台前至喜愛嘅散鈔票方法。
咁鈔票就印緊，伯南克又上咗位，點解大家又未見直升機頭上盤旋？
唔用嘅原因，係因為唔work。伯南克知道，除非可以令執鈔票嘅人相信今次唔係唯一一次空擲鈔票，如果唔係，啲人執到，都係放喺屋企唔用。
不過，當今世上，係有一個機構，雖然負債纍纍，仲多多錢都肯亂使。呢個機構就係花旗國政府。
前日聯儲局宣佈買美國國債同以前政策嘅最大分別，就係之前印嘅鈔票都仲可能被收集放倉，今次就一定係印一蚊用一蚊。不過任總都問嘅問題係，舉兵殺入戰場，有冇諗過點撤兵？到時一旦通脹升，撤錢冇方法，大鑊兼美元末日。
今次買國債係一個政策分水嶺，亦唔會只得一次。化療下，通縮肯定唔會有，但後遺症會好嚴重。
其實真係要落實「印鈔票推出街」政策，個過程係點呢？
以前，就真係用印刷機印。大家唔好誤會鈔票印多咗，帶來污染，要做到「印多啲」就只要鈔票上嘅面額加啲零就得。電腦年代連呢步都慳番。
問題係，啲鈔票要散到，散完又唔可以被人收集，一定要用咗，先有效。
咁伯南克個花朵「Helicopter Ben」，已透露咗佢上台前至喜愛嘅散鈔票方法。
咁鈔票就印緊，伯南克又上咗位，點解大家又未見直升機頭上盤旋？
唔用嘅原因，係因為唔work。伯南克知道，除非可以令執鈔票嘅人相信今次唔係唯一一次空擲鈔票，如果唔係，啲人執到，都係放喺屋企唔用。
不過，當今世上，係有一個機構，雖然負債纍纍，仲多多錢都肯亂使。呢個機構就係花旗國政府。
前日聯儲局宣佈買美國國債同以前政策嘅最大分別，就係之前印嘅鈔票都仲可能被收集放倉，今次就一定係印一蚊用一蚊。不過任總都問嘅問題係，舉兵殺入戰場，有冇諗過點撤兵？到時一旦通脹升，撤錢冇方法，大鑊兼美元末日。
今次買國債係一個政策分水嶺，亦唔會只得一次。化療下，通縮肯定唔會有，但後遺症會好嚴重。
Thursday, March 19, 2009
致匯源果汁股東的公開信
2005年，中海油（883）宣佈想收購Unocal時，小弟仲係個石油業分析員。
日日就為D客分析局勢。
睇番轉頭，徙晒D時間。而我覺得最唔抵嘅一定係 Unocal股東。
今次大陸商務部用反壟斷法去停止 Coca Cola（KO）收購匯源（1886），根本係戇卵居。
仲戇卵居嘅係大陸有條咁嘅法例。反壟斷法就係錯。
咁點解有條咁嘅法例？
「保護競爭囉！」刁，唔好卵玩啦。
係因為「外國專家」（IMF等）話呢D係應該有嘅法例。
應該有嘅法例係乜？
1. 欽點信貸評級公司出嘅信貸評級，為核心嘅風險管理法例。
2. 反壟斷法。
除咗同中央咁講之外，仲要同我哋特區政府咁講。
好彩「1. 欽點信貸評級公司出嘅信貸評級，為核心嘅風險管理法例。」有任總頂住，叫班「外國專家」fuck off。
不過就有班硬卵膠喺香港，係都要反壟斷法。
獅子山學會一路都係反抗緊呢D「外國專家」建議。
匯源果汁嘅股東，今次你哋中咗招、被玩死。
用心、錢支持抗反壟斷法行動。唔打，就遲早再被玩。
日日就為D客分析局勢。
睇番轉頭，徙晒D時間。而我覺得最唔抵嘅一定係 Unocal股東。
今次大陸商務部用反壟斷法去停止 Coca Cola（KO）收購匯源（1886），根本係戇卵居。
仲戇卵居嘅係大陸有條咁嘅法例。反壟斷法就係錯。
咁點解有條咁嘅法例？
「保護競爭囉！」刁，唔好卵玩啦。
係因為「外國專家」（IMF等）話呢D係應該有嘅法例。
應該有嘅法例係乜？
1. 欽點信貸評級公司出嘅信貸評級，為核心嘅風險管理法例。
2. 反壟斷法。
除咗同中央咁講之外，仲要同我哋特區政府咁講。
好彩「1. 欽點信貸評級公司出嘅信貸評級，為核心嘅風險管理法例。」有任總頂住，叫班「外國專家」fuck off。
不過就有班硬卵膠喺香港，係都要反壟斷法。
獅子山學會一路都係反抗緊呢D「外國專家」建議。
匯源果汁嘅股東，今次你哋中咗招、被玩死。
用心、錢支持抗反壟斷法行動。唔打，就遲早再被玩。
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
嬲到掟電話
大學教授伯南克，一向講嘢畀人嘅感覺，就係佢點撻都唔着，更唔好話會怒爆。金融海嘯，通街血肉模糊，伯南克都係好冷靜，最多係演講時聲震震。
不過佢老人家早幾日話早排有次聽電話，嬲到掟電話。
為乜咁嬲？咪就係AIG。話說AIG裏面居然有班人，可以廢到空前絕後咁廢。賣保險畀人，可以收錢收得咁少，同時承擔咁多風險。
AIG出事都發花紅
講真，伯南克動真火唔只因佢哋廢，而係之前幾年佢哋賤賣保險時，其實係咪純粹希望年尾冇事時，之後啲花紅就袋袋平安，明知會爆個黑洞出嚟都唔理。
咁未爆前你袋袋平安，都只係可以怪自己當年冇睇清楚。不過o依家要政府注資拯救，之後你公司員工仲有花紅，就好難辯護。
雖然好難，不過你都仲會辯護話：「有啲部門冇事兼賺錢，冇理由唔畀嗰啲部門。」
係，有錢賺嘅部門有花紅可以接受，因為冇佢哋，間銀行仲傷。
不過大家知唔知，嗰一個輸爆AIG，喺倫敦嘅幾十人部門，依家都仲會派花紅。
咁都得，除非你都有得收花紅，唔係你都會掟電話。
不過佢老人家早幾日話早排有次聽電話，嬲到掟電話。
為乜咁嬲？咪就係AIG。話說AIG裏面居然有班人，可以廢到空前絕後咁廢。賣保險畀人，可以收錢收得咁少，同時承擔咁多風險。
AIG出事都發花紅
講真，伯南克動真火唔只因佢哋廢，而係之前幾年佢哋賤賣保險時，其實係咪純粹希望年尾冇事時，之後啲花紅就袋袋平安，明知會爆個黑洞出嚟都唔理。
咁未爆前你袋袋平安，都只係可以怪自己當年冇睇清楚。不過o依家要政府注資拯救，之後你公司員工仲有花紅，就好難辯護。
雖然好難，不過你都仲會辯護話：「有啲部門冇事兼賺錢，冇理由唔畀嗰啲部門。」
係，有錢賺嘅部門有花紅可以接受，因為冇佢哋，間銀行仲傷。
不過大家知唔知，嗰一個輸爆AIG，喺倫敦嘅幾十人部門，依家都仲會派花紅。
咁都得，除非你都有得收花紅，唔係你都會掟電話。
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Friday, March 13, 2009
i-Cable results...
Ok...
Was reading the i-Cable's (1097) Annual Result that came out today.
Two numbers popped up that I thought was of interest.
Well... The simplest explanation for the increase in Pay TV subscribers is good programming... hor hor hor
As for their broadband subscribers... Why the decrease?
I think this video explains a lot.
Was reading the i-Cable's (1097) Annual Result that came out today.
Two numbers popped up that I thought was of interest.
Pay TV
· Subscribers increased by 4% to 917,000 (2007: 882,000).
Internet & Multimedia
· Broadband subscribers decreased by 13% to 267,000 (2007: 306,000).
Well... The simplest explanation for the increase in Pay TV subscribers is good programming... hor hor hor
As for their broadband subscribers... Why the decrease?
I think this video explains a lot.
革命未成功 同志再努力
周文耀、曾俊華等堂堂男人，要搞到女人喊，先肯兩個禮拜後「暫停」勁假交易時段。
錯，唔肯認。
叫咗你唔改會遲早出事，你仲要掉轉頭話我哋唔識。
好嘞，出事，你又唔即時執番正，仲要第一個考慮係點樣保住面子，搵落台階。
唔怪之得呢期無綫《星期日檔案》嗰套「港男．講女」咁多人有共鳴。因為周文耀、曾俊華等人根本唔係男人，佢哋係港女。
港女DNA就好多人都有，不過其他人唔可以亂咁爆發、要學抑制，因為會俾人炒魷或取締。咁點解周文耀、港交所（388）、證監等人又可以次次港女？因為政府官商勾結，係都要一所獨大。
噚日傍晚，孫柏文睇完港交所周文耀解釋，話係因傳媒壓力所以「暫停」勁假交易時段。令我想提一提大家，傳媒話你嘅勁假唔得咁多個月，希望你理性聽，你就乜都唔做。啲人卒之放棄同你討論，因為覺得你無藥可救，開始出聲要結束一所獨大，周文耀即刻做嘢。
傳媒壓力逼住改
點解？就為自己袋裏面厚厚嘅港交所認股權證。因港交所有競爭時，一係周文耀繼續做令股價陰乾，一係即刻俾理性股東炒兼攞番啲認股權證。
結論係，要港交所做啱嘅嘢，就要一路爭取結束一所獨大。今日周文耀嘅讓步，只係一場小勝利。各位希望香港金融業更好嘅人，一定要記得，革命尚未成功，同志還需努力！
錯，唔肯認。
叫咗你唔改會遲早出事，你仲要掉轉頭話我哋唔識。
好嘞，出事，你又唔即時執番正，仲要第一個考慮係點樣保住面子，搵落台階。
唔怪之得呢期無綫《星期日檔案》嗰套「港男．講女」咁多人有共鳴。因為周文耀、曾俊華等人根本唔係男人，佢哋係港女。
港女DNA就好多人都有，不過其他人唔可以亂咁爆發、要學抑制，因為會俾人炒魷或取締。咁點解周文耀、港交所（388）、證監等人又可以次次港女？因為政府官商勾結，係都要一所獨大。
噚日傍晚，孫柏文睇完港交所周文耀解釋，話係因傳媒壓力所以「暫停」勁假交易時段。令我想提一提大家，傳媒話你嘅勁假唔得咁多個月，希望你理性聽，你就乜都唔做。啲人卒之放棄同你討論，因為覺得你無藥可救，開始出聲要結束一所獨大，周文耀即刻做嘢。
傳媒壓力逼住改
點解？就為自己袋裏面厚厚嘅港交所認股權證。因港交所有競爭時，一係周文耀繼續做令股價陰乾，一係即刻俾理性股東炒兼攞番啲認股權證。
結論係，要港交所做啱嘅嘢，就要一路爭取結束一所獨大。今日周文耀嘅讓步，只係一場小勝利。各位希望香港金融業更好嘅人，一定要記得，革命尚未成功，同志還需努力！
Thursday, March 12, 2009
曾俊華：「正討論取消競價交易時段...」
ummm...
曾 俊 華 ： 正 討 論 取 消 競 價 交 易 時 段 港 交 所 ： 今 日 稍 後 公 布
財 政 司 司 長 曾 俊 華 表 示 ， 港 交 所 正 討 論 取 消 收 市 競 價 交 易 時 段 。
港 交 所 回 應 說 ， 今 日 稍 後 會 有 進 一 步 公 布 。 證 券 界 認 為 ， 為 免 股 價 被 操 控 ， 應 該 撤 銷 收 市 競 價 ， 回 復 舊 制 。
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
青姐 fans club + my youtube channel
Wow...
Simply having these videos of 青姐 has made my youtube channel most viewed in HK today.
And 52nd globally.
All I can say is...
There is indeed a lot of members in 青姐 fans club
Which I would like to remind everyone is a Religious Organisation.
Goddess worshipping hahahahah
What began as an experiment to test facebook functions for one particular Money Cafe episode in 2007, is now an organization with over 1300 members.
V Cool.
Simply having these videos of 青姐 has made my youtube channel most viewed in HK today.
And 52nd globally.
All I can say is...
There is indeed a lot of members in 青姐 fans club
Which I would like to remind everyone is a Religious Organisation.
Goddess worshipping hahahahah
What began as an experiment to test facebook functions for one particular Money Cafe episode in 2007, is now an organization with over 1300 members.
V Cool.
青姐的淚不能白流！
孫柏文唔記得邊個前輩，發明「勁假」呢個形容詞去形容每日4點後，港交所（388）嘅競價時段，不過我想話：「呢個前輩好勁！」
競價時段勁假
今年初，港交所為勁假時段進行諮詢，一百幾廿個意見，超過半數話勁假根本唔得。連當時支持港交所，希望競價機制能減低收市波動嘅人，依家都反對，因為機制根本做唔到，仲要造市易咗。
試問，點解零零舍舍會有一批滙控（005）股票，喺33蚊成交？臨收市冇、之後嗰日都冇。所有因為滙控由37蚊突然跌落33 蚊，所以相關嘅衍生工具出事而輸錢嘅人，仲會唔會夠膽再玩啲喺港交所報價嘅嘢？
競價時段is a fucking joke！
唔好話係特區經濟支柱，如果港交所係間深水埗士多，噚日單嘢根本唔會發生。因為舊年MSCI執位令幾隻股舞高弄低之後，士多級管理就算唔炒人，都已取消呢個令特區股民變點心嘅白癡機制。
不過現時港交所被政府保護嘅一所獨大情況，根本唔可以容許改錯。唔好話改錯，連道歉都冇。政府知道，由佢哋嚟管會仲衰，不過一所獨大就令港交所同證監權力大到不得了。
詹培忠對銀行嘅憤怒，唔係咩私仇，根本係源自港交所同證監失控所致。
一所獨大難改
禮拜一，青姐（胡孟青）因競價機制提供嘅漏洞，眼見滙控股民被推落街而流淚。各位金融業朋友，係時候要政府開放交易所牌照數目，青姐的淚不能白流！
競價時段勁假
今年初，港交所為勁假時段進行諮詢，一百幾廿個意見，超過半數話勁假根本唔得。連當時支持港交所，希望競價機制能減低收市波動嘅人，依家都反對，因為機制根本做唔到，仲要造市易咗。
試問，點解零零舍舍會有一批滙控（005）股票，喺33蚊成交？臨收市冇、之後嗰日都冇。所有因為滙控由37蚊突然跌落33 蚊，所以相關嘅衍生工具出事而輸錢嘅人，仲會唔會夠膽再玩啲喺港交所報價嘅嘢？
競價時段is a fucking joke！
唔好話係特區經濟支柱，如果港交所係間深水埗士多，噚日單嘢根本唔會發生。因為舊年MSCI執位令幾隻股舞高弄低之後，士多級管理就算唔炒人，都已取消呢個令特區股民變點心嘅白癡機制。
不過現時港交所被政府保護嘅一所獨大情況，根本唔可以容許改錯。唔好話改錯，連道歉都冇。政府知道，由佢哋嚟管會仲衰，不過一所獨大就令港交所同證監權力大到不得了。
詹培忠對銀行嘅憤怒，唔係咩私仇，根本係源自港交所同證監失控所致。
一所獨大難改
禮拜一，青姐（胡孟青）因競價機制提供嘅漏洞，眼見滙控股民被推落街而流淚。各位金融業朋友，係時候要政府開放交易所牌照數目，青姐的淚不能白流！
青姐 -------> no longer just 財經柏芝
Drudge report!!!
Amazing.
International Superstar!!!
I can't believe me the jaded one would say this... But I am star struck.
Anyhow, this is the final conclusion of 青姐 explaining why she cried.
Oh one last thing...
The videos I took of 青姐 has pushed my youtube account to the 2nd most viewed today in HK.
The first of course is the original video...
update...
My account is now the 85th most viewed GLOBALLY.
青姐 effect is strong.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Monday, March 09, 2009
十年前蓋特納已膠爆
「財長蓋特納去了那？」好似人間蒸發咗咁。
不過佢老哥唔出嚟見人，孫柏文係可以明白嘅，因為條友直到呢刻硬膠到爆。除咗係咁叫患有嚴重肺癆嘅金融業飲咳藥水之外，就冇料到。
問題係，財長叫飲咳藥水係因為佢冇其他藥，定係佢真係覺得淨飲咳藥水就可以醫番好？
即係如果佢係醫生，佢有冇斷錯症？
佢嘅斷症能力係點？
問花旗國人就好難知，因為佢哋未見過「膠蓋」話事，膠蓋喺花旗國一路都係啲中級公務職員。不過大家如果有落蘭桂坊、駱克道蒲，就知呢啲喺祖國係中級職員嘅人，嚟到遠東就係大支嘢。要知掂唔掂，問總公司人不如問本地同事，膠蓋就係最好例子。
原來當年97金融風暴，花旗財政部就派咗膠蓋去印尼做代表。搞完之後，結果令印尼成為20世紀裏，國民生產總值一年內跌得最多嘅國家。
同事揭當年臭事
咁係咪膠蓋嘅錯？有個當地同事話係，佢就係澳洲90年代總理基庭。
喺上個禮拜四一個閉門會議中，基庭插爆膠蓋當年嘅表現。話佢最大嘅錯誤，就係為南韓、印尼、泰國等國家斷錯症，跟住落錯藥。
膠蓋用咗對付80年代拉丁美洲、94年墨西哥，呢啲政府財赤衍生出金融危機嘅方法，不過因東亞嘅問題根本唔係政府財赤，膠蓋挾IMF落實嘅政策，不但冇幫助，仲要令各國國民經歷不必要嘅痛苦。
膠蓋亦令東亞各國知道絕對唔可以依賴IMF，最終令中國嘅2萬億儲備，被迫買花旗國債，變成爛仔國嘅悲情債主。基庭仲話當佢聽到膠蓋早前被爆冇交稅，完全唔覺出奇。
一日膠蓋當道，一日冇運行。
不過佢老哥唔出嚟見人，孫柏文係可以明白嘅，因為條友直到呢刻硬膠到爆。除咗係咁叫患有嚴重肺癆嘅金融業飲咳藥水之外，就冇料到。
問題係，財長叫飲咳藥水係因為佢冇其他藥，定係佢真係覺得淨飲咳藥水就可以醫番好？
即係如果佢係醫生，佢有冇斷錯症？
佢嘅斷症能力係點？
問花旗國人就好難知，因為佢哋未見過「膠蓋」話事，膠蓋喺花旗國一路都係啲中級公務職員。不過大家如果有落蘭桂坊、駱克道蒲，就知呢啲喺祖國係中級職員嘅人，嚟到遠東就係大支嘢。要知掂唔掂，問總公司人不如問本地同事，膠蓋就係最好例子。
原來當年97金融風暴，花旗財政部就派咗膠蓋去印尼做代表。搞完之後，結果令印尼成為20世紀裏，國民生產總值一年內跌得最多嘅國家。
同事揭當年臭事
咁係咪膠蓋嘅錯？有個當地同事話係，佢就係澳洲90年代總理基庭。
喺上個禮拜四一個閉門會議中，基庭插爆膠蓋當年嘅表現。話佢最大嘅錯誤，就係為南韓、印尼、泰國等國家斷錯症，跟住落錯藥。
膠蓋用咗對付80年代拉丁美洲、94年墨西哥，呢啲政府財赤衍生出金融危機嘅方法，不過因東亞嘅問題根本唔係政府財赤，膠蓋挾IMF落實嘅政策，不但冇幫助，仲要令各國國民經歷不必要嘅痛苦。
膠蓋亦令東亞各國知道絕對唔可以依賴IMF，最終令中國嘅2萬億儲備，被迫買花旗國債，變成爛仔國嘅悲情債主。基庭仲話當佢聽到膠蓋早前被爆冇交稅，完全唔覺出奇。
一日膠蓋當道，一日冇運行。
Saturday, March 07, 2009
...
...木闌干的床不大，珠羅紗帳子灰白色，有灰塵的氣味。褥單似乎是新換的。她有點害怕，到了這裏像做了俘虜一樣。他解衣上床也像有點不好意思。
但是不庝了，平常她總叫他不要關燈，「因為我要看見你的臉，不然不知道是什麼人。」他微紅的微笑的臉俯向她，是苦海裏長著的一朵赤金蓮花。
「怎麼今天不痛了？因為是你的生日？」他說。
他眼睛裏閃著興奮的光，像魚擺尾一樣在她裏面蕩漾了一下，望著她一笑。
他忽然退出，爬到腳頭去。
「噯，你在做什麼？」她恐懼的笑著問。他的頭髮拂在她大腿上，毛毿毿的不知道什麼野獸的頭。
獸在幽暗的巖洞裏的一線黃泉就飲，泊泊的用舌頭捲起來。她是洞口倒掛著的蝙蝠，深山中藏匿的遺民，被侵犯了，被發現了，無助，無告的，有隻動物在小口小口的啜著她的核心。暴露的恐怖揉合在難忍的願望裏：要他回來，馬上回來 -- 回到她的懷抱裏，回到她眼底...
但是不庝了，平常她總叫他不要關燈，「因為我要看見你的臉，不然不知道是什麼人。」他微紅的微笑的臉俯向她，是苦海裏長著的一朵赤金蓮花。
「怎麼今天不痛了？因為是你的生日？」他說。
他眼睛裏閃著興奮的光，像魚擺尾一樣在她裏面蕩漾了一下，望著她一笑。
他忽然退出，爬到腳頭去。
「噯，你在做什麼？」她恐懼的笑著問。他的頭髮拂在她大腿上，毛毿毿的不知道什麼野獸的頭。
獸在幽暗的巖洞裏的一線黃泉就飲，泊泊的用舌頭捲起來。她是洞口倒掛著的蝙蝠，深山中藏匿的遺民，被侵犯了，被發現了，無助，無告的，有隻動物在小口小口的啜著她的核心。暴露的恐怖揉合在難忍的願望裏：要他回來，馬上回來 -- 回到她的懷抱裏，回到她眼底...
無間地獄
孫柏文喺蘭桂坊某dance club識佢，第一眼cleavage、短裙、超長腿。輾轉之下開始交流，不過因啲聲浪轟到眼癱癱，我只係聽到佢嘅工作同黃金有關。
作為白銀戰隊隊長同埋一個盡責嘅新聞從業員，我第日就打電話畀佢約出嚟食晚飯。當晚，我第一眼又見佢着得「好搶」又係cleavage、短裙，所以就問：「你返咗屋企換衫？」點知佢話：「冇呀。」原來係返工衫。
坐低，我哋就開始傾。佢喺英國讀大學，碩士讀marketing，對科目嘅熱誠高到想做研究生，不過父母唔支持，要佢回港。回港有公司請marketing executive，「marketing」有關所以申請。面試，都冇30秒就被取錄。
原來間公司做黃金孖展。除咗難炒之外，我唔會話黃金孖展啱唔啱。我問個business model係點，佢話一個廿萬元戶口，做3萬蚊佣。「每年？」「唔係，係每月。」佢戶口多，26歲女仔搵錢多過我。佢嘅同事，好多只係中五畢業。
當佢可以賺到3萬蚊佣時，一係個戶口成交額大，一係炒得好密，我唔知個客究竟使唔使蝕本，我亦唔敢問。如果要，咁佢咪一路要搵新客？
靚女經紀每個戶口月搵3萬
佢亦有講，試過有個醉咗嘅客請佢「返屋企」，點知拒絕之後仲要俾個客窒：「我都開咗單，你想點。」佢即場鬧到個客PK，不過我就同佢講：「當你嘅 sexuality係你個pitch咁重要嘅一部份，我可以明白點解會出現咁嘅情況。」
當晚，佢嘆氣幾次。
只希望，喺呢個Faustian交易中，早日覺得搵夠，喺無邪嘅靈魂消失前，早日離開無間地獄。
作為白銀戰隊隊長同埋一個盡責嘅新聞從業員，我第日就打電話畀佢約出嚟食晚飯。當晚，我第一眼又見佢着得「好搶」又係cleavage、短裙，所以就問：「你返咗屋企換衫？」點知佢話：「冇呀。」原來係返工衫。
坐低，我哋就開始傾。佢喺英國讀大學，碩士讀marketing，對科目嘅熱誠高到想做研究生，不過父母唔支持，要佢回港。回港有公司請marketing executive，「marketing」有關所以申請。面試，都冇30秒就被取錄。
原來間公司做黃金孖展。除咗難炒之外，我唔會話黃金孖展啱唔啱。我問個business model係點，佢話一個廿萬元戶口，做3萬蚊佣。「每年？」「唔係，係每月。」佢戶口多，26歲女仔搵錢多過我。佢嘅同事，好多只係中五畢業。
當佢可以賺到3萬蚊佣時，一係個戶口成交額大，一係炒得好密，我唔知個客究竟使唔使蝕本，我亦唔敢問。如果要，咁佢咪一路要搵新客？
靚女經紀每個戶口月搵3萬
佢亦有講，試過有個醉咗嘅客請佢「返屋企」，點知拒絕之後仲要俾個客窒：「我都開咗單，你想點。」佢即場鬧到個客PK，不過我就同佢講：「當你嘅 sexuality係你個pitch咁重要嘅一部份，我可以明白點解會出現咁嘅情況。」
當晚，佢嘆氣幾次。
只希望，喺呢個Faustian交易中，早日覺得搵夠，喺無邪嘅靈魂消失前，早日離開無間地獄。
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
恒生供股？
如果我話，當今世上最好睇嘅網上廣東話節目，係我有份主持，每日四點半喺 http://finance.appledaily.com 有得睇嘅《你貼股 我教路》，孫柏文相信冇人異議。
原因係我哋節目嘅宗旨，就係網友上嚟present佢哋嘅見解，即「你貼股」；跟住主持、嘉賓、網友進行討論──「我教路」。
網友籲要仔唔要乸
個節目都做咗差唔多兩年，網友專家我哋儲唔少。
芸芸網友專家之中，我覺得最掂就肯定係「跑馬地陳先生」。
噚日，「跑馬地陳先生」打電話入嚟，劈頭第一句話：「我今日係想呼籲啲人唔好供滙豐（005），不過買恒生（011）。」
買恒生嘅原因，係因為佢比起其他銀行嚟講，透明度高。又要喺舊年賣出好多問題資產，時間掌握得好。仲要搵到位做銀行還原基本步商業貸款揸得好準嘅梁高美懿，去接替一樣咁勁，將會退休嘅柯清輝做銀行領導。
所以陳生就話唔好供滙豐，將供股權證賣出，買恒生。
睇死滙豐供唔起
不過喺陳生眾多理由當中，我覺得最會令我買恒生嘅理由，特別喺感受到滙豐股東嘅迷網之後，就一定係陳生一句：「恒生一定唔會供股……因為（恒生大股東）滙豐供唔起！」
陳生係咪好勁呢？要睇佢嘅見解，就記得每個交易日嘅四點半，睇實我哋嘅節目《你貼股 我教路》喇！
原因係我哋節目嘅宗旨，就係網友上嚟present佢哋嘅見解，即「你貼股」；跟住主持、嘉賓、網友進行討論──「我教路」。
網友籲要仔唔要乸
個節目都做咗差唔多兩年，網友專家我哋儲唔少。
芸芸網友專家之中，我覺得最掂就肯定係「跑馬地陳先生」。
噚日，「跑馬地陳先生」打電話入嚟，劈頭第一句話：「我今日係想呼籲啲人唔好供滙豐（005），不過買恒生（011）。」
買恒生嘅原因，係因為佢比起其他銀行嚟講，透明度高。又要喺舊年賣出好多問題資產，時間掌握得好。仲要搵到位做銀行還原基本步商業貸款揸得好準嘅梁高美懿，去接替一樣咁勁，將會退休嘅柯清輝做銀行領導。
所以陳生就話唔好供滙豐，將供股權證賣出，買恒生。
睇死滙豐供唔起
不過喺陳生眾多理由當中，我覺得最會令我買恒生嘅理由，特別喺感受到滙豐股東嘅迷網之後，就一定係陳生一句：「恒生一定唔會供股……因為（恒生大股東）滙豐供唔起！」
陳生係咪好勁呢？要睇佢嘅見解，就記得每個交易日嘅四點半，睇實我哋嘅節目《你貼股 我教路》喇！
Monday, March 02, 2009
ANZ makes a move for RBS Asian assets
Well well well,
According to the WSJ ANZ bank supposedly eyeing RBS's Asian assets.
RBS is HSBC's single biggest shareholder.
Is HSBC an 'Asian asset'? Probably not. But RBS is definitely thinking of selling its HSBC shares.
Would ANZ step up and buy it?
Wouldn't it be ironic if HSBC's biggest shareholder will be ANZ bank? One run by none other than former HSBC HK CEO 邵銘高 Michael Smith?
The picture below is one that accompanied my entry 'HSBC = Titanic' back in June 15 2007.
According to the WSJ ANZ bank supposedly eyeing RBS's Asian assets.
RBS in Talks With ANZ to Sell Some Asian Assets
LONDON -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC is in talks to sell its retail and commercial assets in Asia to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. for about £1 billion ($1.43 billion), according to a person close to the situation, part of a new initiative to sell noncore assets and sharply narrow the banking giant's global ambitions.
The assets, which are in India, Taiwan, Indonesia and elsewhere, are a portion of the Asian assets acquired by RBS when it led a consortium to buy part of ABN Amro Holding NV in 2007. At the time, RBS paid £10 billion for its part of ABN, which included the Asian businesses and wholesale-banking operations in Europe.
An ANZ spokeswoman declined to comment.
The talks indicate that RBS Chief Executive Stephen Hester is moving ahead quickly with plans announced last week to identify and dispose of "noncore" businesses.
Mr. Hester's plan is aimed at trimming some 20% from the bank's £2 trillion balance sheet to help turn the troubled lender around. As a result, many other parts of the bank's global banking and markets division are also expected to be sold off over the next three to five years, as RBS retrenches...
(Continued here in the WSJ)
RBS is HSBC's single biggest shareholder.
Is HSBC an 'Asian asset'? Probably not. But RBS is definitely thinking of selling its HSBC shares.
Would ANZ step up and buy it?
Wouldn't it be ironic if HSBC's biggest shareholder will be ANZ bank? One run by none other than former HSBC HK CEO 邵銘高 Michael Smith?
The picture below is one that accompanied my entry 'HSBC = Titanic' back in June 15 2007.
花旗早已國有化
呢排，孫柏文見到花旗國同前宗主國嘅領導，都因為好唔好國有化啲銀行而頭痕。可能因兩國國民都仲覺得，列根同戴卓爾夫人將國有企業私有化好掂，就算今時今日已經係左黨執政，都唔敢高姿態玩國有化。
睇營運權見真章
不過講真，國有化、私有化應該係好多被政客、無知者用錯嘅經濟學詞彙當中，用得最錯嘅表表者。好多人認為，只要普羅大眾手上有某間公司嘅股票，嗰間公司就算係「私有」。如果政府擁有嘅企業，政府賣股出去，就算「私有化」。例如當年特區政府將港鐵（066）上市，就話係「私有化」。
其實，私有化嘅神髓，就係政府唔再控制公司嘅營運，將營運權還番畀普通人。點解要放棄營運權，又要將股份賣出去？冇股權，有錢賺時都冇得袋，普通人又點會有心機經營？
咁即係點解？即係只要一間企業嘅營運權喺政府手上，就算政府冇股權，其實都係「國有」。即港鐵仲係國有，政府委任超過半數董事嘅港交所（388）亦係國有，而賣斷營運權嘅領匯（823）就係真正嘅私有化。
乜都干涉仲唔係
用同一指標，就算政府唔做佔過半數股權嘅股東，唔插人入董事局，其實花旗銀行已經逐步被國有化。
多都唔講，高層搭乜交通工具去見人都要干涉，啲員工嘅薪水都要控制，辦公室裝飾都要話乜嘢可以裝乜嘢唔可以時，國有化咗啦！
睇營運權見真章
不過講真，國有化、私有化應該係好多被政客、無知者用錯嘅經濟學詞彙當中，用得最錯嘅表表者。好多人認為，只要普羅大眾手上有某間公司嘅股票，嗰間公司就算係「私有」。如果政府擁有嘅企業，政府賣股出去，就算「私有化」。例如當年特區政府將港鐵（066）上市，就話係「私有化」。
其實，私有化嘅神髓，就係政府唔再控制公司嘅營運，將營運權還番畀普通人。點解要放棄營運權，又要將股份賣出去？冇股權，有錢賺時都冇得袋，普通人又點會有心機經營？
咁即係點解？即係只要一間企業嘅營運權喺政府手上，就算政府冇股權，其實都係「國有」。即港鐵仲係國有，政府委任超過半數董事嘅港交所（388）亦係國有，而賣斷營運權嘅領匯（823）就係真正嘅私有化。
乜都干涉仲唔係
用同一指標，就算政府唔做佔過半數股權嘅股東，唔插人入董事局，其實花旗銀行已經逐步被國有化。
多都唔講，高層搭乜交通工具去見人都要干涉，啲員工嘅薪水都要控制，辦公室裝飾都要話乜嘢可以裝乜嘢唔可以時，國有化咗啦！
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Why merge the stock exchanges?
Ok, Hong Kong use to have 4 exchanges.
They were finally merged into one in 1986.
VC asked in a previous entry, why were the exchanges forced to merge in this supposed freest economy in the world.
The process could be traced to this 1980 speech, made by the then acting Financial Secretary. No there's no Chinese version, for bi lingual record keeping only began after the joint declaration in 1984.
Anyhow, just a quick comment, in the part where the Financial Secretary COMPLAINED about brokers arbitraging price differences between exchanges, implies that the same stock traded on different exchanges.
Which means the 4 day shut down of HKEx could have been avoided, because if one exchange closed down trading... Trading would have migrated to the other 3.
And the one incident that triggered this cascading trend of ever more regulation led by the dumb asses over at SFC would have NEVER HAPPENED.
Page 1060
They were finally merged into one in 1986.
VC asked in a previous entry, why were the exchanges forced to merge in this supposed freest economy in the world.
The process could be traced to this 1980 speech, made by the then acting Financial Secretary. No there's no Chinese version, for bi lingual record keeping only began after the joint declaration in 1984.
Anyhow, just a quick comment, in the part where the Financial Secretary COMPLAINED about brokers arbitraging price differences between exchanges, implies that the same stock traded on different exchanges.
Which means the 4 day shut down of HKEx could have been avoided, because if one exchange closed down trading... Trading would have migrated to the other 3.
And the one incident that triggered this cascading trend of ever more regulation led by the dumb asses over at SFC would have NEVER HAPPENED.
--------------------------------
Page 1060
HONG KONG LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL―23 July 1980
STOCK EXCHANGES UNIFICATION BILL 1980
THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY moved the second reading of :―‘A bill to provide for the establishment of a single, unified stock exchange in Hong Kong; to provide for an Exchange Company to operate the Unified Exchange; to provide for the winding up of existing exchanges; to make consequential and incidental amendments to the Securities Ordinance; and to provide for related matters’.
He said:―Sir, I move that the Stock Exchanges Unification Bill 1980 be read the second time.
There are two main functions of stock exchanges: first to provide a means of raising capital for industry and commerce and second to provide a market in which investors can deal in the securities they acquire as a consequence of the first function. These functions involve exchanges in a public responsibility to those who have committed funds to the market by way of investment and to those who may wish to invest and provide new funds to finance future corporate development. In particular, investors need to be satisfied that:
(a) adequate information about listed companies is available, and that the conduct of listed companies and those connected with them is subject to effective regulation;
(b) the conduct of members of the stock exchanges is subject to effective regulation; and
(c) the stock market is conducted with maximum efficiency. Hong Kong is unusual in having as many as four exchanges. To a large extent, the four exchanges have been regulating their affairs in an efficient manner. But in respect of the three aspects on which I have said investors particularly need to be satisfied, the quartet has particularly unsatisfactory features:
(a) the fact that they compete to attract additional companies, tends to lead them to adopt a flexible interpretation of their own listing rules;
(b) the Government has greater difficulty in regulating the conduct of the members of the four exchanges than it would if there was only one exchange; and
(c) one exchange could be run more efficiently and economically than four exchanges. In such circumstances, the growth of local and international confidence in Hong Kong as a securities and financial market has been hampered by the presence of four exchanges.
Obviously, the answer lies in unification. As well as rectifying the three unsatisfactory features to which I have just drawn attention, one market would be less erratic than four, in that brokers would not be able to indulge in arbitrage between exchanges. It would also provide a better service in that it would have greater liquidity. And we think overseas investors in particular will find one exchange a greater attraction than four.
So the Stock Exchanges Unification Bill 1980 provides for a single unified exchange. It is the result of detailed investigation and discussion by the Working Party on Unification established in May 1977 under the chairmanship of the Commissioner for Securities. The Bill also reflects the advice of the Securities Commission and the views expressed in response to two questionnaires which were sent to all members of the existing exchanges. I would like to comment on five aspects of particular importance: the Exchange Company which will set up the unified exchange, the Transitional Committee, membership of the Exchange Company, the eventual establishing of the unified exchange and the liquidation of the existing exchanges, and the Compensation Fund.
First, the Exchange Company itself. The Bill (clause 3) empowers the Securities Commission to recognize a company formed and registered under the Companies Ordinance as the Exchange Company, the principal object of which will be to establish and operate a stock exchange in Hong Kong. As a prerequisite to such recognition, the Company must satisfy the Securities Commission that it has, in its Memorandum and Articles of Association, adequately provided for matters relating to membership, Listing Rules and the Compensation Fund. Subsequent amendments to the Memorandum and Articles of Association can be made only with the Commission's approval in writing.
The Exchange Company will be empowered (clauses 34 and 35) to draft the Board Trading Rules and By-laws, its Rules and Regulations and its Listing Rules, all of which will be subject to the final approval of the Securities Commission. If the Company fails to do this the Commission can direct it to make the necessary rules. The management of the Exchange Company will be vested in a committee to be elected by its members (clause 10). Only members of the Exchange Company are eligible for election. The Chairman of the committee will be elected from amongst the members each year by secret ballot. He may be re-elected, but cannot serve for more than two terms consecutively.
Second, the Transitional Committee. Until the Exchange Company has elected its first committee, a Transitional Committee, comprising two representatives from each of the existing exchanges, will be responsible for the management and operation of the company (clause 5). A primary task for the Transitional Committee will be to send out and process applications for membership from members of existing exchanges. The Transitional Committee is obliged (clause 19) within one month from the commencement of the Bill to invite to all members of the four stock exchanges to subscribe for a share in the Exchange Company. Those who are interested must apply within three months and the Transitional Committee will then have three months to accept or reject the applications. A person aggrieved by the decision of the Transitional Committee may appeal to the Securities Commission.
Within a given period after the closing date for applications for membership, the Transitional Committee will be obliged to hold elections for the committee of the Exchange Company (clause 9). If no elections take place, the Commissioner for Securities may cause them to be held.
If either the Transitional Committee or the committee of the Exchange Company fails to discharge its functions the Financial Secretary may appoint a person to act in its place (clauses 8 and 11). He may exercise this power only on the advice of the Securities Commission and if the public interest so demands.
Third, membership. Initially, only existing members and overseas members of the present exchanges will be eligible to apply for admission to membership of the Exchange Company (clause 17). Existing full members can opt for membership or associate membership, but existing overseas members are eligible for admission as associate members only. The admission of existing overseas members as associate members will mean little change in their present position―they will continue to have no substantive voting rights and will still have to deal through a member.
Each applicant for membership must demonstrate that he is of sound financial standing (clause 15) and specifically that he will be able, when the Unified Exchange starts operation, to meet the requirement (clause 25) that each member and associate member must maintain in his stock-broking business a net capital of at least $1 million.
The current restrictions contained in the Securities Ordinance debarring directors and employees of licensed banks and solicitors and professional accountants holding practising certificates from admission to the exchanges will continue to apply (clause 13). But it is proposed also to continue to permit practising solicitors and accountants who were members of existing exchanges at the time the relevant section of the Securities Ordinance was brought into effect and who still are members, to apply for admission. This, I believe, is known among the exchanges as the grandfather clause (laughter).
The restrictions on membership have been amended in three aspects. First, on the advice of the Deposit-taking Companies Advisory Committee, deposit-taking companies are placed on a footing similar to licensed banks (that is to say, directors and employees of deposit-taking companies are excluded from the Exchange Company) (clause 13). In addition, directors and employees of companies associated with licensed banks and deposit-taking companies have been declared ineligible. Second, except in the case of existing associate members that are firms or corporations, firms and corporations will be inadmissible for admission (clause 14). Third, while members or associate members can trade in partnership, the Articles of Association of the Exchange Company will provide that all partners must be shareholders of the same class.
Once the processing of applications for membership has been completed, to avoid possible speculation, shares in the Exchange Company will not be transferable for a period of three years (clause 18). This prohibition will only be relaxed in such circumstances as death, bankruptcy, expulsion or insanity. Even in these cases, any proceeds of sale in excess of the sum the vendor paid for his share will be payable to the company. After the three-year period, shares will be freely transferable, with the vendor receiving the full proceeds of sale.
Fourth, the establishing of the unified exchange and the liquidation of the existing exchanges. Clearly the Exchange Company will not be able to establish the unified exchange overnight. But when it is ready, on a day to be appointed by the Financial Secretary, it will have the exclusive right to operate a stock exchange in Hong Kong (clause 27). The preliminaries cannot be allowed to drag on too long and the Bill prescribes that the Financial Secretary must appoint his day not later than three years after the date of commencement of the Bill. Personally, I consider three years to be generous. I trust the Transitional Committee and the Exchange Committee will tackle the job diligently, and so be ready well within this time.
Then, within one year of the commencement of the Unified Exchange, the existing exchange companies will have to start voluntary liquidation (clause 30). The Financial Secretary is empowered to petition the court for the winding-up of an exchange company which fails to comply with this requirement (clause 31).
Fifth, the Compensation Fund. When the Unified Exchange starts operation, the Exchange Company will be required (by virtue of an amendment to section 104 of the Securities Ordinance included in the First Schedule of the Bill) to contribute to a new Compensation Fund which will replace the existing Stock Exchanges Compensation Fund.
The amount that the Exchange Company will have to contribute on behalf of each membership held by its members and associate members will be $50,000 in cash. All claims relating to defaults occurring before the opening of the Unified Exchange will be allowed only if lodged with the Stock Exchange Compensation Fund within about six months. As soon as the old fund has disposed of all claims, the remaining assets will be distributed among the existing four exchanges.
Finally, I would like to record my appreciation for the support and cooperation of the members of the four existing exchanges. It has not been easy for them to participate in the demise of the institutions they have carefully and painstakingly built up over the years. But they have themselves taken one major and significant step towards unification by voluntarily achieving the incorporation of the Exchange Company already. And a word of praise for the Securities Commission and its Chairman, and the Commissioner and his staff, all of whom have patiently helped to get us thus far down a difficult road of some significance for Hong Kong, would not be amiss either.
Sir, I move that the debate on this Bill be adjourned.
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