就快暴升或暴跌

升市速度，好多時會用百分比去計算。原因係如果孫柏文同你話：「恒指上個月升咗二千點！」你可能會答：「咁係由一萬點升至萬二點？定係二萬點起步計先？」

不過由3月至今嘅升市，就算用點數而唔係用百分比計算，近排個市已愈升愈冇動力。冇咗嗰種升市升到連企喺銀行內㩒機嘅師奶，㩒掣㩒到嘩嘩聲嘅氣勢。

講真，感覺上家個市有啲似6月底、7月初嗰陣。當時個市不但冇力升，恒指仲要出現「頭肩頂」呢個「已見頂」訊號，在6月1日，同該月12日的兩次收市均見18,888點之後，就開始下試。去到之前那轉嘅多次頂位，即17,500點時，就感覺上似呢刻。

點解？因為一穿支持位就會勁跌。唔穿？暴升。咁7月嗰次下試17,500點，當然實際上冇穿破該支持位。之後點？原本喺17,500至18,888點區域已長達7個禮拜，不過，最後一次試17,500點之後，只需5個交易日，便已升穿18,888點，並直奔20,000點。

禮拜一同大家講過，點解今轉50日平均線咁重要，原因係當某條線睇落似非常強勢嘅「支持」時，就會嚴重影響，以及主導投資者決定。今轉升市開始冇力時，只要下試掂吓條50日平均線，就會好似啲邊青咁，索索即「揩」。

仲有，今次又好似7月見17,500點嗰次咁，好友同淡友在支持位大打出手。同日裂口低開、V形反彈、由大升變大跌等，幾日內連續出現，成交量又同時上升。

所以種種現象總結來講，就令我覺得個市好快就會大升或大跌，亦即番鬼佬話齋：「We have to long volatility。」

咁如果穿50日平均線又怎樣？禮拜一已講過下站就係200日平均線。咁如果幾個交易日內到站，到時我估計200日平均線，可能會去到17,500點。

不過，唔穿又點？咁會好快到23,000點。到時，仲要可能因為一些已經發誓唔入市嘅投資者們，都因為貪婪忍唔住，最後一盅，最後盅晒入市(到時又會吹內地同胞買港股云云)，咁就會出現最後一次勁升！

恒指下站17500

50天平均線，真係退後一步睇，其實只不過係每日收市時，用之前50日嘅收市價位總和，然後除50嘅一個簡單數字。原意係俾大家一個方法，撇清波幅後去睇大勢。

因為每月大約有25個交易日，50天平均線，亦即等於之前兩個月嘅平均價。

今日要講50天平均線，係因如果大家睇番好多資產嘅價格、指數走勢，都喺上周下試50天平均線。例如有代表花旗國股市嘅標普500指數、特區嘅恒生指數，又或孫柏文嘅至愛白銀等。

如果從炒賣策略來睇，近幾個月，如每次下試50天平均線時，你都夠膽入市的話，之後都可享有豐厚嘅利益。呢個策略當然唔係咩獨家貼士，今日同大家討論嘅，係恒指因由之前高位22,600點，直至於上周四，恒指跌落50天平均線21,100點時，我身邊有好多朋友，都大手買貨。

到上周五，恒指出現大幅反彈後，呢啲朋友個個都鬆毛鬆翼，大讚自己有眼光。

咁我問佢哋入市因由，問佢哋係咪覺得股票抵買，佢哋異口同聲向我發出恥笑嘅笑聲，仲反問我：「抵買？你仲睇抵唔抵買？你都應該有好多個月冇贏錢，因為你唔敢買貨。」係！我真係唔敢。

問題係，當市場嘅買家，明知唔抵買都入市時，心態就會係博博吓。唔係話佢哋唔做功課，而係話佢哋將會成為驚弓之鳥，一有咩風吹草動，一見勢色唔對，就會急速離場。亦即係炒家主導嘅市場。

雖然上周五嘅恒指，承接上周四花旗股市嘅升勢，成功大幅反彈。不過到上周五晚，標普500指數又再次大瀉，跌穿50天平均線。唔知會唔會令恒指一齊跌穿？

大家可能會問：「如果一路靠50天平均線上，又上到變炒家市，一旦穿咗會點？」咁大家就要參考吓，08年嘅油價圖。

由08年2月，大約80美元一桶油起，你每次見油價下試50天平均線買貨的話，就一路跟住炒上08年中147美元一桶嘅高位。之後一穿，差不多直線、高速落到35美元。炒家市就係咁。

如果恒指一樣，一穿50天平均線，下站應該係200天平均線。雖然冇科學根據，不過？估炒家心理就係咁。咁恒指200天平均線喺邊？咪就係喺17,500點。有貨？又唔想賣？扣好安全帶啦！

十四個零...

去完先知身體好？

Apart from the title, this pic from Joe Yam's blog is presented strictly without comment (but notice where Yam's hands are...)

"...My Brain works differently..."

八萬五復活 多謝李兆基！

作為一個千禧年代入世嘅港男，孫柏文想達到嘅人生目標，比之前一代平實得多。因我嘅對等單位，即港女，都知期望愈高、失望愈大，唔會點迫我哋要有乜乜物物先有來往。咁就唔使有車、有樓、有滙豐控股(005)。

我唔需要以上嘅嘢，咁要乜？其實淨係要每朝一起身，聽到一把甜美嘅聲音、鼓勵嘅說話就可以。

今日同大家分享我嘅需要，係因為我為《am730》寫專欄之後，除咗有稿費之外，原來滿足到我以上提過最本能嘅需要。

噚日早上電話響起，一聽就聽到係《am730》嘅女同事來電，叫我不如今日講吓個市或者投資心得。因我喺戰場前線上，有多年同港女交流嘅經驗，所以唔多唔少都吸收咗港女嘅惡習，即就算正有此意，都要好有矜持。

其實我呢幾個月，每逢有人問我個股市點睇，我都係同一答案：「股神巴菲特有個師傅，叫Benjamin Graham。佢出過一套講點樣執行價值投資法嘅書，如果你有呢套書，又喺呢個位問我，好唔好入市，不如下次去燒嘢食時，攞呢套書出來，一頁一頁咁攞來『透爐』，燒咗佢算。」

今次恒指由萬多點，升至呢個水位，完完全全係因為全球政府出手，特別係祖國同花旗國，瘋狂印鈔。如果你覺得聯儲局可以將街嘅貨幣供應繼續發大、花旗政府年年都可借萬億元去使錢、內地銀行又一直會提供上十萬億元人民幣嘅貸款，你咪繼續去買囉。聽講中國移動(941)落後喎，你哋仲唔瞓身落去？

呢幾日有「fan屎」問我，依家究竟應該點？我問佢哋係咪想入市？佢哋話手上有貨，唔知點算。咁我就答話要清倉，佢哋就話「唔得」，因為仲係蟹貨。

我心一算就跟著問：「你哋咩位入？32,000點？」佢哋唔出聲。不過咁，32,000點入得，22,000點當然問可唔可以繼續升。佢哋繼續問我，唔係要我嘅睇法，其實只係要我派心靈雞湯。

講完股市，不如講吓樓市。上個禮拜已經講過，好似民主黨李永達等嘅抽水議員，又好似96年咁，高呼要為「無殼蝸牛」，要求「八萬五」復活。

我仲記得喺98年立法會選舉的論壇上，港島區立法會議員何秀蘭被問及，董特首有冇德政時，佢話有，就係「隊冧樓市」。

今次「八萬五」又再次死灰復燃，其實全賴恒基地產(012)在干德道的豪宅新盤「天匯」，賣七萬多蚊一呎。我好希望七萬多蚊一呎係堅嘅，恒基係有真金白銀袋落袋。

如果係老吹，既冇益恒基，仲要換來「八萬五」復活，我只可話：「八萬五復活，多謝李兆基！」。

Goldman Sachs' Level 3 assets...

So Goldman reported some pretty kick ass results in the last quarter 'justifying' bonuses that is getting their GS ass kicked everywhere (ok, maybe not Barron's)

Anyhow, it seems like everyone has forgotten their level 3 assets.

Forgot what level 3 assets are? Below is a reminder from wikinvest.

Level 1

Financial assets and liabilities whose values are based on unadjusted, quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in an active market (examples include active exchange-traded equity securities, listed derivatives, most U.S. Government and agency securities, and certain other sovereign government obligations). If you can look up an up-to-date price on a major exchange it's a level 1 asset.


Level 2

Financial assets and liabilities whose values are based on quoted prices in inactive markets, or whose values are based on models - but the inputs to those models are observable either directly or indirectly for substantially the full term of the asset or liability.

Level 2 inputs include the following:
a) Quoted prices for similar assets or liabilities in active markets (for example, restricted stock);
b) Quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in non-active markets (examples include corporate and municipal bonds, which trade infrequently);
c) Pricing models whose inputs are observable for substantially the full term of the asset or liability (examples include most over-the-counter derivatives, including interest rate and currency swaps); and
d) Pricing models whose inputs are derived principally from or corroborated by observable market data through correlation or other means for substantially the full term of the asset or liability (examples include certain residential and commercial mortgage related assets, including loans, securities and derivatives).


Level 3

Financial assets and liabilities whose values are based on prices or valuation techniques that require inputs that are both unobservable and significant to the overall fair value measurement.

These inputs reflect management’s own assumptions about the assumptions a market participant would use in pricing the asset or liability (examples include certain private equity investments, certain residential and commercial mortgage related assets (including loans, securities and derivatives), and long-dated or complex derivatives including certain foreign stock exchanges, foreign options and long dated options on gas and power).

Level 3 assets trade infrequently, as a result there are not many reliable market prices for them. Valuations of these assets are typically based on management assumptions or expectations.

So Level 3 are crap that cannot be valued. Which is kinda ironic because Goldman Sachs claim that Level 3 assets "...were approximately $50 billion as of September 25, 2009 (down from $54 billion as of June 26, 2009) and represented 5.7% of total assets..."

Goldman Sachs still has $50 billion of crap that could not be valued.

Just a reminder.

八萬五！八萬五！