Friday, January 30, 2009

話你知點解郵寄陰司紙卑差佬...



「 恭 喜 發 財 」 變 成 「 啋 ! 啋 ! 啋 ! 」 黃 大 仙 紀 律 部 隊 宿 舍 第 一 座 全 幢 29 層 超 過 200 個 警 察 家 庭 , 昨 日 大 年 初 四 人 人 有 份 , 每 戶 都 收 到 一 封 郵 寄 「 大 利 是 」 , 但 並非 「 財 神 到 」 , 因 為 他 們 拆 開 利 是 封 見 到 的 , 竟 是 「 冥 通 銀 行 」 陰 司 紙 。

真 是 大 吉利 是 !

各 戶 人 家 互 通 訊 息 後 決 定 報 警 , 警 方 調 查 相 信 這 次 並 非 一 般 惡 作 劇 , 懷 疑 是針 對 15 樓 一 戶 警 察 世 家 其 中 一 名 新 紮 師 兄 , 據 說 跟 他 的 感 情 糾 紛 有 關 , 而 且 滋 擾情 況 已 持 續 四 個 月 , 但 以 今 次 最 為 惡 毒 。


其實寄件者係想求求其其整D陰司紙ecard卑D差佬,不過實在太怕「不誠實使用電腦」條例...

所以 old school 用郵寄...

《唱旺09》...「雷曼會自然被打殘」


喺下面《唱旺09》呢隻歌賀年裏面,唱到經濟時(2 min 16 sec)有句「雷曼會自然被打殘」嘅歌詞...



如果填詞人王祖籃真係就咁寫咗呢句歌詞嘅話,話佢「膚淺」已經超卑面... Understatement of the Year, so far...



不過我知王祖籃做野好認真,冇理由會咁樣錯。作為一個喺報紙做嘅撰稿員,我可以明白「雷曼會自然被打殘」點解會出現。

其實王祖籃完本嘅歌詞係「
銷售 雷曼 產品嘅金融機構,會自然被打殘」...

點知,句歌詞去到編輯手時,因字數有限被修改,變成「雷曼會自然被打殘」。

到歌出咗街之後,唱片公司開「鋤歌會」檢討隻歌時,個編輯仲要死撐,話「雷曼」兩字其實代表所有雷曼爆煲後衍生出嘅問題。

作為一個供稿單位,我嘅結論係... 一定係編輯嘅錯!

強勢回歸

新一年,孫柏文祝大家身體健康,咩市況都身手敏捷。《金手指》對上幾個禮拜小休,我用咗放假時間,去檢討金融分析同預測嘅方法同提高準確性,但點都諗唔到。

試問今時今日,仲有咩人會信啲財經專家、分析員嘅預測?幾日前辭職,被譽為「08華爾街最準策略師」,大摩嘅Abhijit Chakrabortti,預測08年收市點數都錯成621點。大家可能會話:「淨係錯621點,好勁囉!」最弊佢測嘅係標普500指數呢!咁就係華爾街最準囉!

直至年初二檢討先有突破。睇電視話鄉議局主席劉皇發代表特區求籤,我作為市區人唔知點解佢會代表我。其實「求籤代表」最好普選,我一定投畀年廿八贏六合彩嘅頭獎朋友,明知勢弱就要搵個手風勁嘅。

下籤的啓示

大家都知劉皇發求咗下籤。支籤講乜我就唔知,因為我好似啲散戶睇大行報告一樣,唔睇內容,淨睇評級。不過呢支下籤,就令我覺得仲有希望。當標普、穆廸啲AAA信貸評級冇晒公信力,下籤都仲係下籤。有咁結論,我仲唔係強勢回歸!

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Obama 好野!

一個新總統既第一批行政指令,就係佢對外界既 first impression。

例如當年克林鈍第一個行政指令,就係卑同性戀者當兵既 Don't ask don't tell 指令。

咁 Obama 既第一批行政指令,就係再次卑外界特別係傳媒可以透過 Freedom of Information Act 去搵政府文件同資料。

喺呢刻,Fox Business Channel 正係用緊呢條法例去迫花旗國財政部公開佢地點用納稅人既錢去救 AIG、Bank of New York、Citigroup。

究竟 D 錢去晒邊?

大家買定花生等睇戲。

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

特首說:「狗噏」下集...

Well...

I wondered here what our CE Tsang really said about Ronnie Tong.



Well...

蕭若元 has further analysis on the pronunciation.

崖上的波兒 - 成龍 karaoke 字幕版...

I am not even going to add any comments...

Just go watch... And learn the words to the song.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

曾特首究竟諗緊乜?

特首今日搵左三個「非老土」民主派做野...

胡紅玉、葉維義李澤楷...

1. 胡紅玉 - 當年肥彭委任(連同陸恭惠)既造反民主派立法會議員...

2. 葉維義 - 壹傳媒 獨立董事...

3. 李澤楷 - 開名挺「民主派」莫乃光...

umm...

反社會主意民主派?

提拔新政治勢力/聲音?


-----------------------------

Rapiere's response... They are not true democrats...

1. 胡紅玉 - Li Ka Shing's man

2. 葉維義 - Resigned from Next Media (282), also he is a director on other companies...

3. 李澤楷 - He is after all Richard Li... What do we know about what he is thinking?

All good points...

TARP for HSBC Finance!

From the Times UK...

Investor puts pressure on HSBC to let US sub-prime unit go bankrupt

HSBC came under pressure to let Household, its American sub-prime bank, go bankrupt yesterday, in order to avoid an expensive rights issue or government bailout.

The proposal was dismissed by HSBC, although the bank is to consider making a cash call in the coming months that some analysts believe could involve it asking for £13.5billion from shareholders.

Knight Vinke, the activist investor, told The Times last night that HSBC should refuse to pay the bondholders that fund Household's business, which it estimated would save the bank an estimated $35 billion. (£23.6 billion).

Eric Knight, Knight Vinke's chief executive, said: “Why should HSBC's shareholders take all the pain when these [Household] bondholders are unsecured?” To do this, HSBC would have to threaten to allow Household to take Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection...

... HSBC said that the proposal was unrealistic, as it would hamper the ability of the bank - Europe's biggest - to raise money from American bondholders. A source close to the company said: “If HSBC did this they would be counting themselves out of any future big US bond issue. And they would probably have their US banking licence revoked.”...


I say HSBC should go talk to Tim Geithner (Hank Paulson's successor as Treasury Secretary). Get 2nd round TARP to 'invest' into Household International with MASSIVE dilution to HSBC Holdings.

Dilution means HSBC no longer owner and can walk away.

Also, It is easier for the American govtto buy into Household International than HSBC holdings. For HI is American.

Someone forward this to Green please?

Monday, January 19, 2009

HSBC

HSBC Hong Kong closed @ HK$62.3





HSBC in London currently trading at HK$52...





Thank you Household International.

Thank you to those in HSBC who were responsible for buying it.

And you want us to have children?

My piece in the Standard today, as Research Director of the Lion Rock Institute.



-------------------------------

And you want us to have children?

As a 31-year-old male born and raised in Hong Kong, I am at a stage in life and mind where one could say I am seeking to "settle down." Be a family man. Embrace the future with a vote in confidence by securing a partner, who shares my desire to have children.

This yearning, I am sure, is shared by many in my demographic. Yet, great apprehension overrides and hesitation grips. No doubt, there will be some who blame such apprehension on the fickleness of our generation. We grew up in relative prosperity and never seem to want the challenges of great responsibilities, especially one as great as raising a family. As a member of the aforementioned generation, I'm the first to admit that it is indeed because of fickleness that we remain apprehensive.

If the root cause was only as simple as fickleness by nature, I have no grounds for anger. But the fickleness unfortunately stems from forces not in our hands.

All parents when holding their child, though, always dream of greatness, hope at the very least their children will become productive members of society. Hope they would able to take care of themselves and not burden others.

Knowing this, individuals of our generation, especially when courtship begins, are nevertheless without hope...


Continued here...

Sunday, January 18, 2009

I like Rosemary...

Ok...

I am not going to lie, I have liked Rosemary since I was like 19.


She was 15 back then.

Anyhow, I heard she is going to form a Pussycat Doll like dance/singing group, called New Faces.

I just want to wish her all the best. Am looking forward to her work.

More analysis of the miracle landing on the Hudson...

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Did he really say...



Did our Chief Executive really say 狗噏?

Can someone in the media follow up with the CE office? Can this be played to University professors who teach speech or languages? And ask these professors what did he say?

What about the transcript... Is there any?

I think this can blow up big. If someone with power chases it.

Bank of the day...

Ok...

you might be looking at HSBC or Bank of America.

But I think this is where the action is tonight.



Barclays' down 27% at the moment of writing.

NO ONE HAS ANY EXPLANATION. Yet.

Plane safely landing in the River...

I am guessing this picture proves my father right...

Study hard, work hard... make a lot of $$... so when you fly, fly first class.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Bank of America...

Seems like Bank of America's CEO is being criticized from all sides...

Henry Blodget (of 1999 AMZN $400 price target fame) even wants him fired. For buying stupid stuff like Merrill Lynch...

Unlike Vikram Pandit at Shitigroup and John Thain at Merrill, Lewis can't blame the need for this bailout on his predecessor's idiotic bets. Bank of America needs another bailout solely because of an idiotic Ken Lewis bet: His decision three months ago to buy Merrill Lynch.

No one put a gun to Ken's head and said "You've got to buy Merrill." There wasn't some secret backroom Treasury deal where Hank Paulson forced him to take one for the team...


Now... I say one does not need to wait till BofA's acquisition to appreciate Ken Lewis' stupidity.

It was Countrywide.

And it wasn't even their US$4b all stock offer for Countrywide in Jan 08. It was their US$2b ALL CASH infusion into Countrywide back in August of 07 for 16% (!?!) of Countrywide...

AND WHAT DID 孫柏文 SAY, when BofA took over Countrywide in Jan 08? (Apple Daily version)

除咗以上(Aug 07「資金自由行」)消息,仲有(Aug 07)美銀BOA宣佈以20億美元現金入股Countrywide,買16%股權。

原來,美銀只要等多幾個月,就可以自己印價值40億美元嘅「公仔紙」股票,去「買」成間Countrywide番嚟。之前用20億都冇控制權,今日畀40億仲要攬上身。

以前細個,跟老竇入馬場,佢話最忌就係「贏縮輸谷」。美銀要同我老竇傾傾。



Image first appeared 16 Jan 2008

If only Ken Lewis listened to my father's advice...

教育=學習?

A interesting piece written by 程介明 in 信報 today.

The piece is titled 教育=學習? (subscription required)

Anyhow, he cited a few examples of how student who "did well" in education nevertheless learnt nothing.

Here are the examples... And my comments...

----------------------------------

第一個例子:我們在幼稚園學寫字,比如說寫一個「上」字。原來的意思,是學生一個一個字完整的寫。但是由於要「練」,因此一般要求要橫直十行寫一百次。大概是「熟能生巧」意思吧!

但是我們要是認真調查一些,現在很多孩子很「聰明」,他們是先「—」(一橫)寫一百次,再「—」(一豎)寫一百次,然後再「—」(一橫)寫一百次。效率很高,很快完成一頁,但是其實並沒有一個字。

(孫柏文 comment, "That was me! Division of Labour by process!")

----------------

第二個例子(以前在本欄也介紹過):一個中一的學生,英文默書 unseen(事先不知道的)一定零分;但是 seen(預先念好的)的默書可以拿到八、九十分。詳細追蹤之下,原來這位學生在過去的六年小學裏面,英文從來念不來,只會死記字母;大概是記憶力特強,因此只要前一夜背好,可以拿到八、九十分。要是即時由教師念出來的,一定寫不出來,因此零分。

這個故事對我印象很深:老師看到答卷,也以為這位學生不錯;學生拿到八、九十分,以為自己很不錯;家長拿到成績表,也覺得自己的孩子不錯。大家都會滿意,但是其實學生根本就什麼都沒有學到。

(孫柏文 comment, "I failed regardless of test format")

----------------

  第三個例子,大概是十年前的事了。一位教師發覺中七經濟學的班上有一位學生,寫的東西不成文章,一塌糊塗根本不知所云。一查之下,這位學生原來中五會考經濟學拿的是C,屬於不錯的「良」等。

研究下去,這位學生說:「我很感謝中三的時候的經濟學老師。她對我們說,經濟這一科,要成績好,答案裏面『點子』(points)就要多;因此,不管如何,要把可以放進去的東西都放進去;因為不對的「點子」是不會扣分的。」當年改卷子,往往只看「關鍵詞」(keywords)給分。這位學生採取的「泥沙俱下」的大包圍策略,果然奏效,於是拿了個C,其實沒有學到多少經濟學,到了中七就原形畢露。

(孫柏文 comment, "I wasn't that smart... But this kid could work in an investment bank... He sure knows how to game the shit out of the 中五會考 system... aka in Cantonese 屈爆機啦!會考都卑佢屈爆,Moody's、S&P is nothing!!")

----------------

  第四個例子,香港的學生在國際比較和國際競賽之中,成績非常突出,往往還獨占鰲頭。但是我們從事數學教學的同事說:香港的學生懂得「算數」,但是不懂得「講數」。

就是說,學生能夠計算出一個正確的答案,但是講不出這個過程其實是在做些什麼,也講不出為什麼要這樣計算。「知其然不知其所以然」。嚴格來說,學會了計算,但是其實沒有學會多少數學。

(孫柏文 comment, "識「講數」?「講數」叻仲要卑人話:「條友淨係識吹水。」")

----------------

  第五個例子,最近教育局提出教學語言的「微調方案」。議論紛紜。有些議論也許是經不起推敲的。一說是用粵語教學學生容易掌握知識,這是理所當然的;難道用英文學習物理比用中文學習物理更容易?但是現在的世界,需要學生在學習物理之外,也能(比如說)看得懂英文的物理文字,因此可以在網上拿到許多隨手拈來的知識。

我的理解,現在的「微調」,就是為這種學習開一個窗口,並不是要把物理的教學語言專為英文。另一說是接觸各科的英文材料,並不會改善學生的英語。那就是說,學好英語就是學好英文科;那是一種相當奇怪的說法。

(孫柏文 comment, "All I can say is our education system is Hong Kong's most powerful contraceptive...")

Saturday, January 10, 2009

My wage got cut!

Dammit...

My wage got cut... And I only found out because some one (that does not work at next media) sent me a link to a website!

WHERE ARE MY CARING COLLEAGUES!!!

Just because I have been off a week, to people working in a daily, you might as well have disappeared...

Thursday, January 08, 2009

UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

尋日,我喺 Money Cafe 話美國國債嘅泡沫,應該爆緊。亦推介咗隻睇淡同拋空20年期以上美國國債嘅ETF... UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

不過尋日講得唔清楚,搞到觀眾有疑問...

隻野嘅股票編號係(TBT)。如果令大家有乜誤會,sorry。

李超人低位沽貨...咁即係買得未?

尋日,孫柏文聽到李嘉誠嘅慈善基金,話會將手頭上嘅中國銀行(3988)放20億股,都有少少出奇。

不過問題係,佢以家出貨,係咪等如仲有得跌?

大家可能會話:「已經跌咗好多喎!仲跌?」



係冇錯跌咗好多,不過睇李浮雲嘅前科,中國銀行(3988)真係仲有排跌。

對上一個泡沫,就係科網泡沫。相信大家都應該記得,和黃(13)賣「橙」卑 Mannesmann個一個振奮嘅故事。不過唔知大家仲記唔記得,除咗 Orange 之外,和黃仲持好多一間叫 Voicestream 嘅美國無線電話公司嘅股票。

之後,Deutsche Telekom 用現金同股換股方法,買咗 Voicestream,和黃就搞到成手都係 Deutsche Telekom 嘅股票。

大家要記得,Deutsche Telekom 喺 2000年最高見過 €100 一股。

到咗 2001年8月,已經跌到得番€25 一股。

Here's a chart of the ADR of Deutsche Telekom in US$

2001年8月有乜咁特別?李嘉誠嘅和黃,就喺個一刻批晒手頭上所有 Deutsche Telekom 嘅股票。

€100 跌到 €25 都賣?...冇錯,就係跌咁多都賣。

仲要搞到 Deutsche Telekom 同 Deutsche Bank 反面。因為和黃搵 Deutsche Bank 幫佢賣股。

最後 Deutsche Telekom 嘅股價點?到2002年10月,跌穿€9。



大家知唔知最大鑊係乜?Deutsche Telekom 之後都係再未試過升穿€20

唔通中行(3988)會跌穿一蚊?祝個D唔跟李嘉誠嘅股東好運lor!

不過李嘉誠仲有30億股,可能都係唔使咁驚...

Thursday, January 01, 2009

「深喉」勁爆的迷思

水門事件中爆料卑報館嘅「深喉」,上個禮拜bye bye。

我就喺《蘋果批》撰文寫吓水門事件。

唔知特區嘅紀律部隊,有冇儲吓D政客黑材料?

不過,我都想話《蘋果批》R.I.P

That's it folks!

It's been quite a ride!

笑住送走08年

場景:劍橋大學課室,凱恩斯做講師教經濟學。有一個之前嗰晚,跟佢喺利物浦足球隊踢波嘅朋友去玩嘅學生,因為酒氣未除、筋疲力竭,所以上課時瞓着咗。

凱恩斯見到佢咁,就即刻大發雷霆,走過去學生度大力拍枱,跟住要求個學生答佢啱啱問嘅問題。

學生即時彈起身,雖然嚇一跳,不過清醒起嚟咁答:「亞 Sir,我真係聽唔到你問乜。不過答案係政府應該加大開支!」

格老帶挈滑板仔

喺外國,各行各業好多時有個patron saint「主保聖人」,例如蛋糕師傅嘅主保就係St. Honore。

咁時代變遷、科技先進,好多活動都未有主保,而聽聞喺花旗國踩滑板班板仔,啱啱推薦咗格林斯潘做佢哋嘅主保。

原來啲板仔好鍾意喺啲冇水嘅泳池裏面踩滑板,因為泳池設計往往都有平滑嘅斜坡。最弊係之前啲泳池喺人哋屋企,所以就算冇裝水,去踩板會俾屋主鬧,甚至被差佬拉。

不過到今時今日,板仔踩板嘅「場地」就多咗好多。

咁點解要搵格林斯潘做主保呢?因為如果冇咗佢嘅話,又邊會有咁多被荒廢、冇裝水、點樣踩滑板都冇人鬧嘅泳池?

諮詢未完可推翻

最後,我想令啲合和(054)股東興奮吓。

特區電台節目主持李慧玲,喺上市公司董事禁售期事件中,話到明啲公司反對係錯。原因係諮詢咗一年,o依家先反對,有冇搞錯。

不過早前,90年代合和個前稱Mega Tower嘅計劃,諮詢十幾年,李慧玲咪今年先至做嘢反對。成功推翻之後,仲要將聲帶剪輯成推廣該節目嘅廣告。

孫柏文唔知個廣告仲有冇播,不過是否代表Mega Tower可以復活?唔通一注獨贏買合和?