Tuesday, September 30, 2008

金融海嘯的教訓:政府做晒!


劉 吳 惠 蘭 : 政 府 出 資 興 建 郵 輪 碼 頭

商 務 及 經 濟 發 展 局 長 劉 吳 惠 蘭 表 示 , 政 府 決 定 出 資 承 擔 興 建 啟 德 郵 輪 碼 頭 的 整 個 項 目 , 預 計 在 2013 年 啟 用 首 個 泊 位 , 碼 頭 完 成 後 會 出 租 營 運 。

劉 吳 惠 蘭 表 示 , 這 個 決 定 是 政 府 考 慮 到 成 本 上 升 、 加 上 近 期 的 金 融 海 嘯 等 因 素 , 重 新 招 標 須 考 慮 會 否 出 現 流 標 等 情 況 。



冇人有錢起郵輪碼頭,政府起

有如澳門政府自己起賭場...

試想像澳門政府起賭場會係乜樣...你諗緊既就係未來既香港郵輪碼頭... So sad...

At the end of the day

"no chance of passing of this bill"

The vote failed.

What did I say earlier today?


喺對上個禮拜,每個國會議員嘅fax機、電話、電郵,都被反對方案嘅選民不斷轟炸。所以除非真係投咗票通過,唔係都可能仲會出現波折


The Republicans say blame should be on Democrats' Speaker of the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi...

"... This should be a bipartisan effort, so when the Speaker delivered a partisan speech, we lost votes..."

Here's her speech...



And this video captures the sentiment in America.



One final note. Warren Buffet bought those preferred shares of Goldman Sachs because he was expecting the passage of the bailout plan. Guess he guessed wrong.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Singapore: One Nation Under Lee



If you want to hit the PAP, you have to hit them from the right. On economic policies. And you have to out-PAP on economics.

Go to the people with a plan that would increase the return on CFP, Temasek etc (Privatization is always an option)

Go to the people with a plan that would make the economy grow faster than under the PAP (for example, how are you going to encourage creativity, when the secret ingredient of creativity is individual's innate sense of subversiveness, how does one 'create' something better in anything, if one is satisfied and not want to subvert the norm?)

Showing pictures of grannies picking up aluminum cans for recycling ain't gonna cut it. No rational resonance other than grannies are great for the environment.

Only when one present oneself as a better guardian of the Singaporean economy, does one become a real and present danger to the PAP.

Good luck my friends down south.

(Here's the facebook group "I WATCHED 'ONE NATION UNDER LEE' AND LOVED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!")

東亞擠提 警方應拉誰

孫柏文放假一個禮拜,世界真係好多事發生。最令人注目,當然係花旗國政府嘅 7000億美元買垃圾方案。由原本我走嘅時候,呢個救市方案被視為黑暗隧道中嘅曙光,點知到上個禮拜,市場發覺原來隧道係一條火車隧道,道曙光其實係殺到埋身嘅火車車頭燈。

不過到噚日下午,花旗國傳出立法機關嘅國會同負責行政嘅白宮,成功達成共識,夠票通過呢個問銀行買垃圾方案。基本上,所有黨派嘅領導,都想快快手手通過呢個買垃圾方案。問題係個個派別裏面,都有好大嘅反對意見。

花旗國民反對方案


從我喺花旗國嘅白銀戰隊成員所講,花旗國嘅民間意見,特別係嗰啲最會出聲嘈嘅人,係極之反對今次嘅方案。

喺對上個禮拜,每個國會議員嘅fax機、電話、電郵,都被反對方案嘅選民不斷轟炸。所以除非真係投咗票通過,唔係都可能仲會出現波折。

除咗花旗國嘅買垃圾方案外,如果要講番上個禮拜嘅大事,就不能不提東亞銀行嘅擠提潮。銀行排大隊嘅賓墟場面,以前香港都發生唔少,問題係提款攞本票有冇其他銀行收。

我記得好多年前,渣打銀行都發生過擠提潮。當年我好細個嘅表弟,因為將啲利是錢存咗入渣打,所以就排隊攞錢走。搞到我姑姐為咗個千幾蚊,要陪佢排隊排足成日,幾經辛苦先攞到錢。

之後幾日,我哋一齊出嚟飲茶,我老竇就問我表弟啲錢點,佢就攞個卡通主題銀包出來,畀我哋睇吓佢啲錢。

踢信貸評級公司門


我老竇望一望,之後就問:「你攞嘅全部都係渣打出嘅銀紙,執笠都係唔值錢。」嗰一刻,我個表弟差啲喊出來。

點都好,聽聞政府話會開始拉人,我話非常好!第一個應該踢門嘅地方,就係啲信貸評級公司。

多唔好講,今時今日東亞銀行嘅信貸評級,居然低過6月嘅雷曼兄弟。散播埋啲咁嘅訊息,仲唔抵拉?

講起雷曼,就要提一提啲買咗佢哋出嘅迷你債券買家輸錢事件。好多人嘈話銀行職員,冇話過原來雷曼執笠,係會輸晒啲錢。講真,如果A級評級都要唔信,銀行職員就會個個變成我咁,只會叫人買白銀同黃金。

Why I want to learn Portuguese

It is report like this that makes me want to learn Portuguese and be closer to the people of Brazil.

Wonder if Petrobras (PBR) or Companhia Vale do Rio Doce CVRD is hiring. ho ho ho

"They want to help the banks and not help the poor," (Brazilian Presidente) Lula said late on Saturday in Sao Paulo during a campaign rally ahead of Oct. 5 municipal elections.

"Why give $700 billion to the banks and no money to the poor guys who lost their houses," Lula asked, according to local media. He referred to the troubled U.S. housing market.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

想救美樓市?拆樓咪得囉!

Holman Jenkins over at the Wall Street Journal had proposed several times about how to fix the financial crisis.

Basically the root of all problems is depreciating house prices.

So he proposes...

Meanwhile, use taxpayer dollars to clean up the housing mess in the Southwest and Florida -- the surprisingly confined source of all our troubles.

Every time we mention demolishing houses, somebody slaps us over the head with Bastiat -- the French economist who'd say you don't increase wealth, you reduce it, by destroying some houses to make the value of others go up.

True -- but we're in a situation today where responsible homeowners will pay one way or another for the acts of irresponsible lenders and buyers. The cheapest bailout would be one that weeds out enough surplus housing to stop the free fall in a handful of overbuilt markets, whose foreclosure epidemic is dragging down the entire securitized mortgage market. We're talking about buying thousands of houses, not millions of mortgages. And yet the resulting higher mortgage debt prices automatically would help to recapitalize the banks, while (knock wood) leaving some Paulson powder dry for future contingencies.

The fine print of the Paulson plan includes sweeping authority to buy "other assets." Going after houses and knocking them down would fit this commodious garment -- and would let the agency wrap up its work quickly and go away in the natural course of things, whether everyone was satisfied with the result or not.

That's a virtue not to be sneezed at. All the monumental interventions of recent months will have unintended consequences. Once the panic dissipates and the political class returns to form, we'll have a hell of a time unwinding the cure.


I have no idea whether this plan will ever be implemented. But I would say this, if Jenkins wants to sell this plan, he has to stop calling them "surplus housing".

In fact here in Hong Kong, we do have a mechanism that could be used to reduce housing stock. And that's called "Urban Renewal".

When I was a younger man and Hong Kong was in a total slump, I did think about a massive increase in urban land purchases in the name of urban renewal. The government could literally have a land bank that could then be auctioned off when times get better.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Bank of East Asia bank run + The Hong Kong Police

The latest news right now is Bank of East Asia (0023.HK) is facing a good fashion bank run.

The bank run is triggered by good fashioned rumours of the bank's possible problems with the bank's assets.

The Hong Kong Police have said there currently no criminal element in the rumours. I say bullshit to that.

isn't it criminal that the bank depositors have no idea what the crap bea is holding?
isn't it criminal that HKMA still count AAA rated assets as 'safe'?
isn't it criminal that Moody's and S&P still have not have their doors kicked down by the self labled diligent Hong Kong Police?
what was Lehman's credit rating the week before it failed?

and in the midst of this, kind hearted citizenry of Hong Kong speculates on the integrity of bea and the Police dare implies that these citizens "not yet exhibits criminal elements"?

If financial secretary tsang really thinks those spreading the rumours should "bear criminal responsibilities", he better pray to his god that BEA's assets are as safe as what the credit agencies are saying.

The Police is way over its head in this. This is not some pictures of Edison chen! If the police is reading this, all I can say is stop, you don't know what you getting yourself into.

One final note. All those people lining up outside bea right now, they must be all 100K+ in their deposits. Or they just don't even trust the so called deposit insurance scheme.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The Patriot's Act of Finance

As I sit here on the beach. I ponder about the largest financial power grab attempt by any executive branch of the US government - the US$1 trillion plan, that will give the US treasury power to decide on how to allocate the money without legislative nor judicial over sight, by disabling it with this law.

This might as well be written by the National People's congress.

I am going to call this "The Patriot's Act of Finance" from now on. The law that will jammed down with overwhelming support and much regrets.

This is truly the beginning of the complete re shuffle of the global finance industry.

Just look at crude oil and other hard assets. Even my much abused silver is making a comeback.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Hitler got a margin call...



I am taking the week off.

New Blog posts could be non-existent till the 28th of September Sunday.

Friday, September 19, 2008

金融火場的黑色幽默

孫柏文作為一個報紙嘅財經口水佬,今時今日嘅大勢好難落筆寫。由我落筆到你睇到嘅一刻,分分鐘已經24小時。唔好話24小時,你問完我點睇之後24分鐘,我嘅答案可能已經變晒,事件發生速度就係咁快。

世界雖然好似木屋區大火咁,事態不斷變同笠笠亂,不過喺呢場火災中就有班友勁搞爛gag。

佢哋係乜水?咪就係班財經博客。寫blog好多時嘅運作,就係有新聞,跟住博客畀反應。以下就係幾個黑色幽默例子。

如木屋區大火笠笠亂

新聞:禮拜日,前聯儲局主席格林斯潘上電視,講話今次呢場金融危機係百年一遇。
博客反應:縱火者分析火勢。

新聞:Bear Stearns在3月被救,8月雷曼就要執笠,不過兩日後又出手借850億畀AIG。政策上有出入。
博客反應:雷曼就係一個鍾意走去隻狗度,跟住大力拉狗尾嘅小朋友。今次拉咗隻大狼狗嘅尾,所以被咬死,冇人救。

Bear Stearns就係一個好鍾意煲蠟,家住高樓大廈嘅小朋友。今次玩出火,焚毀屋企,要派消防車救火,為免波及鄰居。

AIG就係一個誤打誤撞,撞入一間生化武器實驗室裏面嘅小朋友。將啲睇唔明標籤嘅試管袋晒落袋,跟住同其他小朋友玩。

新聞:多間銀行被國有化。
博客反應:花旗國已變成97年嘅印尼,最大嘅銀行全部國有化。變成高增長嘅發展中國家。

銀行體制健全成笑話


新聞:雷曼冇國有化,佢之前借咗好多錢畀商業大廈發展商起商廈。
博客反應:仲大鑊!花旗國就快變成97年嘅泰國,一棟又一棟,被棄置嘅摩天鬼樓。

當然,最黑色幽默嘅言論,根本唔使反應都已經好黑色。

新聞:花旗國財長話:「銀行體制非常健全。」

Thursday, September 18, 2008

如何逼政府救你

幾年前,孫柏文雙失年代告終,返工做低級職員。當年因為對上班文化唔熟悉,所以對同事講嘅一句說話,摸不着頭腦,佢哋好多時都會話:「放假仲辛苦過返工。」呢個周末,作為一個財經口水佬,我卒之領略到箇中真諦。

講真,上個禮拜我都係買政府會出手搞掂雷曼兄弟。就算唔會收歸國有,都會出手保證或補貼雷曼兄弟啲爛資產,跟住就搵人接手。上次Bear Stearns都係咁,冇理由今次唔係。點知,真係唔係。問題就係點解上次救,今次唔救?究竟Bear Stearns同雷曼兄弟嘅分別喺邊?

因為《金手指》嘅讀者群當中有好多金融機構管理層,所以不如實際啲問,究竟嗰兩間投資銀行嘅管理層,做過啲乜令到有呢個分別。即係如果你係銀行話事人,點樣逼政府救你。

四大情況政府必救

第一,搞大佢。唔係淨係危害自己間行,一定要危害整個世界嘅金融業。廢廢哋係唔足夠,只摧毀自己間行嘅話,就會冇人救你。一定要定喺個能夠摧毀全球金融業嘅位,一定要廢到累街坊。

第二,搞唔得大,就要爆先。如果雷曼爆先過Bear Stearns,可能結果已掉轉。

第三,一定要挾持重要對手做人質。Bear Stearns有9萬億美元衍生工具交易,淨係JP Morgan一個對手,已佔四成。所以當時啲人話JP Morgan救Bear Stearns,其實係救自己。

第四,一定要危害到大眾市民每日嘅經濟活動。按揭、私人貸款、信用卡財務very good。借錢畀甲級寫字樓發展商,冇咁有用。

AIG學以致用


根據以上四個教訓,如果你真係一個金融機構管理層,咁就要好好學習。因為已經有金融機構學以致用,佢就係AIG。

講真,AIG真係好似一個幼稚園老師,身上綁起炸藥,走入充滿小朋友嘅班房,用電話同世界各國嘅父母講數。大家應該有心理準備,政府唔救AIG,班小朋友會一鑊熟。

Monetary injections from EVERYWHERE!!!

HKMA, BoJ, European central bank.

All injecting money now.

BANKS HAVE STOPPED LENDING TO EACH OTHER!

As for the Federal Reserve, they might have ran out of money. The US Treasury is raising money for it.

Treasury to Sell Bills to Bolster Fed Balance Sheet

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Treasury is selling $100 billion in short-term debt to enable the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, a sign of the strains created by the biggest extension of central-bank credit to financial companies since the Great Depression.

The program started today with a $40 billion auction of 35- day bills, a day after the government agreed to take over American International Group Inc., the Treasury said in a statement in Washington. Another $60 billion will be sold tomorrow, it said.

The proceeds will ``provide cash for use'' by the Fed as it seeks to boost liquidity in credit markets struggling from $515 billion in writedowns and losses since the start of last year. (more)

Amazing!

Now the question remains, will can Morgan Stanley survive?


Not according to the CEO of Morgan Stanley John Mack (as reported by NY Times)...

We need a merger partner or we’re not going to make it,” Mr. Mack told Mr. Pandit according to two people briefed on the talks. Mr. Pandit, a former senior investment banker at Morgan Stanley, said Citigroup was not interested.

Why?




Why gold and silver going up?

Because my guess is a lot of investment bank shorted gold and silver.


So if they go bankrupt, and their creditor have to unwind their positions, they have to buy it back.

Oh boy. I am so looking forward to the alleged greatest short in the silver market having to cover. Our friend Morgan Stanley.







Wanna bet on Morgan Stanley to be ok?

Wanna bet against Silver going to USD$120 per Oz?

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Settlement issues at the HKEx?

Don't ask where I heard this from...

But there could be 'settlement issues' at the HKEx due to the global financial crisis.

You read it here first (if it's true)...

Lehman can't settle its trade at T+2. Because its assets are frozen.

So like all responsible exchanges, HKEx stepped in to pay cash for Lehman accounts that has bought. And Stepped in to buy stocks today, so that at 4:00pm, all those accounts that sold stocks needs stock to settle their trades.

Amazing.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

AIG @ close

At least it didn't close on its day low...



Pimco went from Hero to ZERO in no time.

When Lehman is not bailed out, seems like all the winnings made from the narrowing of interest rate difference between Fannie + Freddie and US treasury was all lost by today.

When PIMCO as one of the biggest debtors of Lehman lost a bundle hor hor hor



Its sick.


AIG

講過 AIG 先至係今個周末既戲肉...

佢地問聯儲局借400億...

BUT...




即係聯儲局 said no...

AIG is one fuckedcompany.

Monday, September 15, 2008

銀行執 聽歌仔 開心D

胡渭康 - 黃金戰士 -《黃金戰士》主題曲




"金光閃閃多美麗... 金光閃閃叫人迷..." 胡渭康 - 小小朋友仔 -《黃金戰士》插曲

MAINTAIN EXPOSURE TO PRECIOUS METALS.


*side note* I think it is a sign of the changing times, when before in the early 1980s, a Dupont lighter 打火機 is described and pushed to kids as a child's 小小朋友仔...

I am going to discuss the current crisis tonight...



Live tonight at 8:00pm on Next Media's Apple Actionews.

Apple Pie show.

Please feel free to call in or web cam in and discuss.

蘋果網今晚 8:00pm 講 聯儲局 雷曼 AIG

打電話或用webcam入厘傾傾

Phone number is 2623 9077

聯儲局 雷曼 AIG

1. 聯儲局 - 更放寬換野條件...依家連股票都可以換靚野... 重有冇好野卑人換?

2. 雷曼 - 只係母公司宣佈破產,子公司繼續營業。

如果用匯豐做比如,即係匯豐控股(005)清盤,跟住積極找人買恆生(011)同交通銀行(3328)等資產。

3. AIG - American International Group 其實先至係今個周末既戲肉。


佢地依家求乞聯儲局借錢,聯儲局跟本冇借錢卑保險公司既機制... 仲要400億,AIG其實有幾傷?係咪隨時執笠?!?

特區官員有冇打電話卑 AIG ,冇就快Q手D打啦!

AIG 係香港有今多客同員工,你地仲係到做 show 講通脹?!?

----------------------------------

Screen cap from Saturday...



Germany is blind.

雷曼 美林 AIG

1. 雷曼 - 真係倒閉。資產將會被賣,去還債。債主D錢將會有排先囉番。世界 Liquidity 再跌?

Oh yeah... time for me to 認屎認屁.
What did I say back on 30th of July
When Lehman was trading at $18 a share? ho ho ho

2. 美林 - 美銀出 USD$29 一股去買美林(禮拜五收市 USD$17)。美銀機本上係最大笨蛋,上次買Countrywide Financial 以經中招。

Also, for Bank of America buying Merill, as it is share for share, the "value" calculation is based on the closing share price of Bank of America on Friday.

The only piece of "good news" this weekend is this acquisition.

But if Bank of America share price starts falling dramatically on Monday US open, even this good news will be bad news. ooohhhhh

3. AIG - 呢個最切身,你有冇同佢地做既 Plan?今個中秋,肯定好多人打電話卑自己個保險 broker。問聯儲局暫時借400億美元?... hahahahhaha

As for AIG, they are DESPERATE. I recommend ALL media colleagues to start pounding their staff for comments. On record or off record.

What kind of plans and insurance are safe, and what kind are not.

Wonder how the Federal Reserve will handle AIG's request for money.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

For energy geeks like me...

Here's is Stratfor's forecast on what could happen to the US refining industry when Hurricane Ike hits Houston.

3.5 million barrels a day refining capacity.

Bear in mind global capacity is about 80 - 90 mil a day.

We are talking about a lot of capacity taken off line.

Anyhow, Stratfor accurately predicted the chaos that hit New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, before the storm hit. They went as far as predicting the city would never be the same again, and they were spot on.

----------------------

United States: Hurricane Ike Targets an Energy Industry Achilles' Heel

Stratfor Today » September 12, 2008 | 2351 GMT


Hurricane Ike is, at the time of this writing, less than seven hours away from landfall. The storm appears set to hit the Texas coast at the point and angle that would maximize damage to the energy industry located in the Houston area. Should this happen, Ike’s impact will reach far beyond Texas and is likely to be felt throughout the world.
Analysis

At 6:30 p.m. Central Time, Hurricane Ike is bearing down on the city of Houston.

The odds of a hurricane’s storm surge striking the barrier islands that protect Galveston Bay and Houston at just the right spot and angle that would allow the surge to reach not just Texas City but also the northern bay and the channel are very low. Successfully predicting the specific approach of any hurricane is a crapshoot. But as a storm gets closer and closer to the shore, the margin of error in such predictions shrinks. And with Ike now less than seven hours away, it appears that it is aiming for the bull’s-eye.
galveston bay

The Houston area is home to roughly 6 million people, and already 250,000 have been evacuated in the face of what is expected to be the strongest storm surge on record. While Ike is “only” a Category 2 hurricane, it is monstrously wide, and the surge is already being felt from Galveston — an island-city suburb of Houston — where it is expected to make landfall sometime shortly after midnight to New Orleans, several hundred miles away.

Damage may well top $15 billion, hurricane-force winds are sure to wreak havoc over a substantial portion of Texas, and rain-related flooding will be remarkably widespread in Texas’ slow-draining soils.


Yet not to sound callous, but Stratfor is not particularly worried about most of the storm’s likely carnage. This is not going to be a repeat of Katrina’s strike on New Orleans in 2005. Unlike New Orleans, Houston is well above sea level, and rich in preparation, reserve funding and political clout. There are multiple routes of entrance and egress to facilitate recovery efforts, unlike New Orleans’ singular line of access. To put it bluntly, Texas can take it.

The impact that concerns us will be felt beyond Texas — possibly globally — and will be on the energy industry.

Thirteen oil refineries processing 3.5 million barrels per day of crude are within Ike’s easy reach. Three of these are just inside Galveston Bay — Houston’s “bathtub” ocean access — in Texas City. Several others are up at the north end of the bay at the opening or on something called the Houston Ship Channel, a snaking waterway that allows maritime access deep inland. The channel is home to more than 300 separate petrochemical complexes — one of the densest concentrations of such facilities in the world. Between barrier islands, the size of Galveston Bay, and the twists and turns in the channel, normally major damage to these facilities could be (almost) casually discarded. Such a scenario is now a definite possibility.

Further down the coast to the east, and well within the likely damage zone, the refining complexes at Port Arthur and Port Charles — areas much less protected by geography than Houston — face the very real likelihood of damage as well.

Should Galveston Bay and the channel be inundated in the worst-case scenario, at a minimum these petroleum facilities will be below their capacity for a week. Recovery from substantial water damage could take more than six weeks, and even that assumes that nothing goes disastrously wrong. In an economic environment that could certainly be described as weak, a sustained hit to energy availability is perhaps the thing the United States economy needs least.

For now, all we can do is wait. The facilities have all been closed down and many evacuated as a precaution. (And American wholesale gasoline prices have risen in acknowledgement.) The storm will hit just after midnight; damage assessments will begin within hours of Ike’s passage, but will take days to complete. Ike could well take a last-minute turn to the northeast and leave Houston largely untouched, as Hurricane Rita did three years ago, but at present it is also possible that it could also do something that no hurricane in American history has done: in a single swift punch truly hit the country where it hurts.

美元升完?

禮拜三講過,叫大家留意美匯指數升到 80 點時,要睇究竟能不能升穿。



之前 25 年,美匯指數 80 點係個非常利害支持位。理論上,一旦跌穿(07年跌穿),就會成為非常利害既阻力位

作日,美匯指數到 80 點。今日就跌 1 點,到 79 點。




美元升完?

Friday, September 12, 2008

又有大茶飯Case Study

三日前,標普宣佈會喺佢哋嘅標普500指數,剔除周末被收歸國有嘅房貸美同房利美,前日生效。取而代之有兩家新公司,不過就要今日先至生效。即係呢兩日嚟,大家睇嘅係標普498指數。

其實,喺呢啲跌市大時代,往往都會出現指數唔夠公司嘅情況。今次已經算好,只係兩日唔夠數,記得千禧年時,dot com出現倒閉潮,納斯100指數,長期都維持「納斯九十幾指數」。

債價下跌保險要賠

大家要記得,花旗國財長保爾森,話到明兩房唔倒閉,咁點解又會被人郁出指數?睇番標普公司嘅新聞稿,剔除嘅理由係因兩房嘅市值不足,達唔到要有50億美元市值嘅要求。宣佈剔除當日,房利美市值 10億美元,而房貸美就6億美元,非常合理,履行法治精神。

不過,經過多個月嘅跌市,標普500指數中已有過百間公司,市值唔過50億。如果用「剔除兩房日」嘅收市價計算,標普又堅定執行50億美元市值要求。標普500指數?就變成「標普381指數」。跌市真難搞。

講起兩房,原來又有投資銀行家靠今次危機食大茶飯,搵客戶笨。

事緣禮拜一,有個國際衍生工具仲裁機構,喺完全冇成員反對之下,宣佈兩房被收歸國有,已經滿足咗要求,所以被稱為「倒閉咗」。而所有有關「保險」,亦要賠款。

大家都知,今時今日金融市場乜都可以「買保險」。而嗰班投資銀行家,就賣咗好多保障「一旦兩房倒閉,而令兩房債券價格有負面影響」嘅保險。即係如果兩房倒閉,令兩房債價下跌,保險就會賠。

等同國債更添安全


聽聞賣得最多,就係舊年尾今年頭。呢個絕對理所當然,廣告都話,要搵錢就要細心聆聽客戶需要,客戶擔心兩房出事,啲投資銀行家咪賣啲滿足佢哋需要嘅產品。

大家可能會問:「冇成員反對?保險賠得咁大方?賣呢啲債券保險嘅投資銀行唔通有病?」絕對冇病。個個都知,一旦兩房出事,政府一定會收歸國有。如果係咁,兩房債券等同於花旗國國債,等於安全咗好多,個價必升。

咁嘅情況下,保險又使乜賠?幾勁,有如沙漠賣雨傘!唔怪得啲private wealth management banker可以搵咁多。

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Breaking news... Listed company Chairman (919.HK) sues her Private banker Goldman Sachs (GS)

Well, there will be a press conference tommorrow.

Anyhow, a little heads up to the good folks who read this blog.

Explosive stuff...

The Chairman of Modern Beauty (919.HK) is suing Goldman Sachs.

Basically, Chairman Tsang 曾裕 lost a lot of money after making trades with an "Executive Director, Private Wealth Management" at Goldman.

A person by the name of Ronnie Wong Wang, 王弘.

Anyhow, how the losses were incurred remains the focus of this particular lawsuit.

And yes. A lot of accumulators involved.

Especially in view of the fact that this Chairman has received little or no education in English (which of course was not the lingua franca between her and the banker)

A lot of he says she says.

So far so typical. Nothing particularly explosive.

The explosive stuff is the alleged conversation between the 2 parties. The Chairman alleges that the banker said "She would make up the difference by selling her properties (notice the plural) to make up the loss of HK$18 mil."

There are also the issue of account statements which the Chairman said was presented in a way that was not accurate.

For me, of interest is when you open an account, it is required to fill in a survey of what you aim to do with the account and what your history of trading is. Here is a screen cap for the Chairman's account opening form.



I love it how on the form she signed to confirm her 3-5 years experience in writing uncovered options.

Did she fill this form in herself?

Interesting... What do you all think?

Finally, if losses were HK$18 mil, how many facials do you have to do to make up for the loss.



曾裕... Chairwoman, philanthropist, (former?) Goldman Sachs customer...

接掌兩房 冇拆過彈

前日禮拜一,因為花旗國財長保爾森正式接掌兩房,令好多人反射式覺得可以入市買貨。當日股市升860點,因為啲人嘅第一個反應就係「拆彈啦!」如果係咁,噚日禮拜二又點解會跌?

原因就係,保爾森方案根本冇拆過彈。

周末,保爾森接掌兩房嘅原因,係因為包括祖國等,兩房最大嘅債主,唔肯再借錢畀兩房。令兩房借錢越嚟越貴,喺花旗國按揭市場冇競爭嘅情況之下,借錢做按揭嘅市民就面對更高嘅利息,最後樓市更缺乏購買力,雪上加霜。

花旗國問祖國借錢

咁點解祖國等債主,唔肯再借錢畀兩房?因為驚佢哋還唔到,所以保爾森方案就答應喺2010年前,兩房還唔到嘅債,政府還。大家可能會好天真好儍咁問:「接掌兩房嘅花旗國政府都冇錢,點還?」問得好!政府冇錢咪借囉!問邊個借?咪問祖國借。

冇錯。花旗國政府問祖國借錢,跟住泵錢畀兩房,等佢哋可以還錢畀祖國。花旗國?爛仔。

祖國可唔可以唔借?可以。不過就可能要將手上兩房債券做撇賬。就算唔講因為花旗國消費者投降,打擊祖國出口,唔借錢畀佢哋,我哋仲有選擇咩?

祖國手上嘅美元,試過用嚟買油公司(05年Unocal),就算出最高價,都買唔到。

OK,直接買唔得,可能因為不懂外國人嘅禮儀細節,咁就搵中介人嚟幫手。前宗主國統治香港初期,都有買辦,祖國諗住照辦煮碗,入股Blackstone。由入股至今,輸五成,咁嘅表現,不如畀孫柏文以「一注獨贏」嘅方法去投資,因為表現差唔多。

記得祖國入股Blackstone時,我已經叫停,如果北京有得賣《蘋果日報》,就可以輸少幾百億。

將個鑊卸畀接任人


點都好,大家都留意到保爾森方案,只係答應喺2010年前,政府無限量保證兩房嘅債,2010年開始之後點?雖然佢老人家非常之忙,每日工作十幾小時,不過保爾森仲有時間提大家,非常期待選舉之後卸任。因為基本上,佢將個鑊卸咗畀下一個。

如果連天才保爾森都自認唔識拆彈,個市又點會升?

白銀令人沮喪... 睇金能守USD$770...

各位白銀戰隊成員...

作為隊長我有睇實白銀,我都同大家一樣捱打。



根據期貨市場數據,呢次跌浪直至上個禮拜二,都未有足夠炒家離場。



上次黃金跌到 USD$770 就反彈。睇金能不能守USD$770...

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Rapiere is buying me a meal...

Made a bet with Rapiere... The ante was a meal.

He is highly knowledgeable of HK politics. Its his job.

Anyway, the bet was made last week. When opinion polls were coming out every day.

Now, I have a theory that opinion poll is never accurate stand alone, but is all about momentum. And I really felt that Wong Yuk Man 黃毓民 had momentum.

So the bet was, "Will Wong Yuk Man's vote count be above or below 18%..."

I bet on over.

Rapiere bet on under.



He lost. woot woot!

Black Swan?

The takeover of Fannie and Freddie has triggered the bankruptcy clause in many credit swaps.

I wonder what the knock on effect will be for the balance sheet and settlement dept of various financial institutions. Those people who made a bet on, "the Govt will never let Fannie and Freddie fail" will now have a one fun time.

Wonder how these instruments are structured. Indeed, how much of it is still out there...

Interesting...

US move triggers CDS default

By Aline van Duyn in New York
Published: September 8 2008 19:21 | Last updated: September 8 2008 19:21


One of the largest defaults in the history of the $62,000bn credit derivatives market has been triggered by the US government’s seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, raising questions about how dealers will unwind billions of dollars worth of contracts.

Although the $1,600bn of debt issued by the troubled mortgage groups is regarded as safe after the US government’s move to take control of the companies, their move into “conservatorship” counts as the equivalent of a bankruptcy in the credit derivatives market.

This triggers a default on credit default swaps – instruments that provide a form of insurance on fixed-income assets. Dealers in the market are now working to settle these contracts...

More here from the FT...

母乳教學...

陳克勤 demands, "搓 my breast"




In his previous job, I do wonder how he worked day in day out at the office of the Chief Executive.

Must have been interesting. At least for the people around him.

太早出聲...

I wrote this piece on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the front of the business section of Apple Daily with Simon Lee 李兆富. Back when we wrote for the front two pages of the business section every Monday.



Notice the date of the piece. Guess we were early by like 2 years hahahahah And we didn't even know what to call Fannie/Freddie back then.






We have come a long way since then. All of us.

Monday, September 08, 2008

冇永遠敵人...冇永遠朋友?

當年陶君行、梁錦祥 (myradio 台長)、長毛、王岸然等齊討論黃毓民。




Screen cap 舊年區議會選舉論壇。



社民連欠我一個多謝

揭兩房被救的大贏家

噚日,《蘋果日報》嘅同事應該都好遲放工,仲分分鐘得個等字,因為要好被動咁等新消息。大家一定估孫柏文講緊我哋政治版嘅同事,因為佢哋要等立法會選舉結果──咁諗就錯。

小圈子功能組別選舉,投票人數少,好快就知,所以唔使點等。直選點票,因為我哋特區已經變成香蕉共和國,啲同事返屋企瞓吓覺,今朝起身食個晏晝,都應該未有結果。

其實,我係講緊我啲財經版同事。咁佢哋等啲乜?咪就係房利美Fannie Mae同房貸美Freddie Mac,究竟會唔會被收歸國有。如果真係收,股票會唔會變牆紙,揸佢哋啲債券使唔使輸錢?
如果要輸,輸幾多?
輸錢嘅債主,例如我國人行,又會有乜反應?

信祖國變超級大國

雖然,正式消息就完全冇,得啲花旗國財經狗仔隊,見到財長保爾森、兩房嘅總裁、聯儲局主席伯南克同房屋信貸局局長,禮拜五一齊開會。不過就令人推斷,兩房國有化在即。好彩唔係特區狗仔隊跟,如果唔係一定估佢哋搞5P Greek party。

大家可能會問:「早排聯儲局唔係已經出咗手,話會保證兩房啲債?無限量借錢畀佢哋?唔係已經搞掂,救咗兩房咩?」係。係已經出咗手,用盡全力相救,不過應該係聯儲局自己頂唔順。

以前我都講過,聯儲局資產5000億,仲要係啲好嘢已經俾人換晒,兩房個窿就50000億,點救?

冇錯!聯儲局呢間花旗國中央銀行冇錢,要財政部救。就係咁,我都真係信祖國變成花旗國級嘅超級大國。因為有小道消息話,祖國人行都好似聯儲局咁作為中央銀行,資產好似好多,不過都係唔夠錢,要問財政部攞。人行應該成手兩房債券,睇住個價日日跌頂唔順。

我食唔到嘅大茶飯


亦因為個個買咗兩房債嘅人,全部頂唔順,罷買,財長唔出手唔得。我落筆呢刻,仍然唔知點救兩房,不過應該所有兩房嘅債,都會有政府白紙黑字嘅保證。後果係現有兩房債券價,將會同花旗國債睇齊,差唔多80點子嘅息差將會消失,花旗國債總數升50000億。咁嘅情況,金同銀都仲可以跌,美元升,有冇搞錯。

有冇大贏家?有。就係嗰啲買兩房同國債息差收窄嘅人,例如全球最大債券基金公司PIMCO。唔怪得佢哋嘅話事人Bill Gross,上個禮拜講到如果財長唔救就世界末日,擘爛面都要佢出手。

真係一鑊我食唔到嘅大茶飯。

多謝劉兆佳!

當年政府用多議席單票制選立法會既原因,係因為想保護D例如民建聯當年弱勢政黨。

估唔到,今時今日救左泛民...

Sunday, September 07, 2008

The following is my endorsement...

九龍西:黃毓民

九龍東:胡志偉

新界東:梁國雄

會計界:黃宏泰

Good luck all today.

Friday, September 05, 2008

自由黨 林翠蓮 違反廣播條例!!



廣播條例話到明唔卑播食煙。

自由黨 林翠蓮 違反廣播條例!!

有冇搞錯!!!

一票獨投黃毓民

禮拜日,投票日。08年立法會選舉嘅競選期,都已經過咗好幾個禮拜。唔知道大家有冇留意到小弟完全冇講過今次選舉?有冇覺得怪?點解?老實嚟講,提唔起勁。

真心揀人代己議政

不過大家唔好誤會,我一定會投票。揀我覺得能代表我自己,喺立法會議政嘅人。如果唔係,都唔會叫代議政制。今日呢篇文,就係選舉日之前最後一篇,我亦想把握呢個機會,同大家分享我會投邊個一票。不過講之前,想提供一啲背景資料。

首先,黎智英、施永青同我,都係住喺九龍西選區,我住深水埗天台屋(有契嘅,多謝關心!)。以前住港島區,今次第一次喺九龍西投票。所以我一定要承認,就算今次對眾候選人嘅政綱,讀到滾瓜爛熟。感覺上,未去到以前港島區嘅親切。

點都好,競選期開始時,我抱住一個「咩人都可以攞我嗰票」嘅態度,等啲候選人嚟攞。之後,真係對啲政綱好熟。不過就算熟,仍未有定案,直至睇到一段8分鐘長嘅短片。段片就係Now TV九龍西選區嘅辯論。YouTube搜尋「毓民拔刀相助」。

法理有權政治戇居

嗰8分鐘,就係民建聯團隊同社民連黃毓民,每張名單4分鐘自由發問時間。第一個4分鐘,民建聯嘅鍾港武就問民主黨團隊,排喺涂謹申之後嘅林浩揚,點睇涂謹申之前捲入「租議員辦事處」事件。我絕對覺得係一條應該問嘅問題,因為我都想知。

點知,涂謹申唔畀佢答,仲要話團隊有權決定邊個答。

唔知道是否涂謹申係個律師,因為法理上你係有權,不過政治上就係戇居!如果涂謹申落選,真係估唔到係鍾港武搞掂咗佢。

當我非常頹喪之際,到黃毓民發問。基本上,佢一口摧毀民建聯。亦係整個選舉當中,第一次令我喺螢幕前,站起來拍手。

大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎,都知道「一注獨贏」嘅明燈威力。

今次我一票獨投黃毓民,希望唔係對佢贏今次選舉嘅最大詛咒。就畀次機會你,good luck毓民,4年後一定要再參選,因做得唔好,我要親自踢你落車。


Thursday, September 04, 2008

中電(差啲)食大茶飯

幾年前,孫柏文第一次聽到中電(002)想喺特區搞液化天然氣進口,真係百感交集。首先,因為將天然氣液化嘅過程同維持液狀需要大量能源,由遙遠嘅氣田經海路運到特區,從環保角度上可能唔值。以上對環保嘅憂慮,禮拜一講過。

話到明百感交集,有憂慮就當然又有喜悅。為乜開心?就係因為搵到個連哈佛大學MBA課程都會用嘅case study,一個「如何玩政策屈機」去搵錢嘅例子。

玩政策屈機絕橋

首先,中電始終都係上市公司,根據經濟學教科書,佢哋存在嘅唯一原因就係要賺錢。而喺平時啲公司要賺錢,就係要喺同其他對手競爭之下,最能夠滿足消費者。

不過,中電就唔使,佢哋就有一個叫做「利潤保證計劃」去保證利潤。作為中電,能「保證利潤」嘅,一定希望繼續。

問題就係,「利潤保證計劃」如何計算最後嘅利潤?條方程式其實非常簡單,
就係:投資金額 x 保證回報率 = 利潤。

中電最終只係對利潤有興趣,求其投資金額 x 保證回報率得出嘅總數可以大啲,就一於好少理。

當然,羊毛出自羊身上,利潤點計算都好,最終都係市民出錢,所以啲民粹議員就出手介入。

而喺「投資金額 x 保證回報率」當中,大家都應該留意到民粹議員永遠只係攻擊「保證回報率」。作為中電,你要打回報率其實冇所為,因為只要可以谷大「投資金額」,搵嘅錢分分鐘多咗。

問題就係,點樣谷大「投資金額」?一間公司,要做更多投資嘅原因,多數係因為賣緊嘅嘢供不應求,不過中電當然冇呢個問題。咁公司做投資,又可能想令供應非常穩定,呢個中電又已經做得綽綽有餘。喺呢個情況之下又如何谷大「投資金額」?

大陸截糊衰收尾

冇錯!就係投資令賣緊嘅嘢「改良咗」。大家可能會話:「一度電就係一度電,改咩良?」

以前,一度電係「一度污染電」,未來經過投資之後,一度電就會成為「一度乾淨電」。

就算市民最初覺得,香港空氣污染元凶係大陸啲廠,經過陸恭蕙悉心策劃嘅「科學研究」(香港是最大源頭!香港是最大源頭!香港是最大源頭!hohoho),記者傳媒已經中晒招(香港是最大源頭!香港是最大源頭!香港是最大源頭!)。

中電就諗住有足夠民意支持去投資幾百億搞液化天然氣進口。不過最後棋差一着,天然氣發電ok,但政府就話用唔需要大量投資嘅大陸管道進口天然氣。

中電差啲食到大茶飯,too bad。

Coke's takeover of Huiyan - Complications?

Consider this an extra for my loyal readers.

Coke announced a $12.2 a share takeover offer for Huiyan Juice. 190% premium over previous close. PE ratio of 46.6 on historical earnings. And the good folks over at Money Cafe blog wrote an excellent entry on this.

The more I think about the analysis by the good folks over at the money cafe blog, about the takeover attempt of Huiyan Juice 匯源 by Coca Cola, the more I am troubled.

The market share of Huiyan 匯源 42%, is already way into dominance territory.

Adding to it Coke's share, resulting in 52%. This is safely into Anti-competition commission's level of interest.

Of course, when I was back in school. I remember studying the anti trust case of Coke taking over of Dr Pepper (the third rank soft drink company in the US then behind Coke and Pepsi), and Coke in order to throw off anti trust issues, defined Coke's market as anything that one drink's but Milk and Beer.

Anyhow, with the new Anti Trust law in China, which the Lion Rock Institute has long believed will be used as a tool to protect national champion/dominant local player, Huiyan will be a good test to see how active this law is in China.

If silence, this will be a test case that everyone will cite for future acquisition in China, if China had a common law system. Alas.

But if this law is used to block this takeover... See ALL HELL break loose. After all, If it was so easy to buy such a firm, Danone wouldn't have to sue Wahaha hahaha

Shuen

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

天然氣運輸出口

幾年前,孫柏文仲係石油股分析員時,油價仲係比較平。當時除咗煤炭,基本上冇乜其他能源燃料,平或好用得過石油。

點都好,可能因為當年俄羅斯邀請咗幾間外資石油公司,開發日本以北嘅天然氣田,所以嗰啲油公司就諗方法,點樣賣呢啲天然氣。

氣田位於比較南部嘅艾克森美孚ExxonMobil,因為比較近遠東北亞地區,就自自然然想將天然氣,以氣體方式用氣管運輸。不過因為鄰國嘅地緣政治,一直只能議而不決、決而不行。

成本高又不環保

不過,氣田位於比較偏遠北部嘅蜆殼Royal Dutch Shell,就希望可以將天然氣液體化,跟住用船運輸。咁就可以擺脫地緣政治限制,鍾意賣氣畀邊個就賣畀邊個。

我作為一個用經濟學睇嘢嘅人,驟眼當然鍾意蜆殼,多過艾克森美孚嘅運輸方法。原因係,當公司能夠鍾意賣畀邊個都得時,就可以賣畀出價最高者。

不過,經過進一步研究之後,我就對「天然氣液化用船運輸」呢個好有保留。因為要將沸點喺攝氏零下161度嘅天然氣液化需要大量能源,而液化之後維持液狀又要另一筆能源,所以最終由氣田到終點,分分鐘已經消耗超過六成嘅天然氣去作液化維持之用。既冇成本效益,仲要因為排出二氧化碳,可能喺環保角度上唔值。

仲有,如果大家睇過講中東石油嘅《油激暗戰》 Syriana。記唔記得裏面個後生仔,變成自殺式炸彈人之後,炸啲乜?冇錯,運輸液化天然氣嘅船,因為天然氣嘅物理特性,基本上就係一個識浮嘅炸彈,所以個後生仔就揀咗呢啲船嚟炸。亦因為咁,船同終點接收站嘅地方,一定要投入大量資本,先至可以確保一定程度嘅安全性。

憂東江水鬧劇重演


因為睇過以上嘅資訊,當年中電(002)宣佈要搞液化天然氣進口,我都有擔心過。不過到今日,政府宣佈會從大陸進口天然氣,我都冇擔心液化天然氣嘅理由。

不過就換嚟新嘅擔憂,就係究竟大陸夠唔夠天然氣。唔夠嘅話,會唔會重演東江水嘅鬧劇,特區出高價買,但用唔晒,大陸就唔夠用。