Monday, December 29, 2008

劈酒 Hangover 點算?

孫柏文相信,喺《金手指》差唔多3年嘅歷史中,最多人剪落嚟貼牆嘅文章,就係一篇題為「要同客劈酒……點算?」關於如何對付酒後不適嘅文。

文中,我講過解決酒後不適嘅方法,就係好似油公司對付啲舊油井嘅water injection method,要將1公升暖水灌肚,兩分鐘之後扣喉,將殘餘物同從血液中倒流入胃嘅酒精一齊嘔出,之後再飲暖水。

背後嘅科學邏輯非常簡單──中毒就要排毒。

暖水灌肚助排毒


不過,呢個聖誕佳節,我就從兩個唔同嘅來源,聽到一個科學邏輯上同以上背馳嘅解決酒後不適方法。《華爾街日報》就叫「hair of the dog」,而我個auntie就叫「回魂酒」,即係劈酒後第二日感覺唔舒服時,再劈多個shot。

《華爾街日報》就推介一款叫「Ambassador's Morning Lift」嘅雞尾酒,而auntie就話一 shot X.O.得。

大家可能問:「火燭仲淋電油上去?」問得好!不過我就喺度諗,以上講過嘅兩個方法,其實就係世界各國政府,對付金融海嘯嘅大方向。

飲「信貸回魂酒」

面對着因為之前啲人過份借貸,帶嚟今日嘅辛苦,一係用我建議嘅方法,盡快排毒,公司應執即執,工人應轉行就盡快迫自己轉行。一係就飲「信貸回魂酒」。

不過《華爾街日報》警告,飲得「回魂酒」多,好容易會酗酒。

Friday, December 26, 2008

Ghost of Christmas past...



I hope everyone is having a nice Christmas...

This video of me when I was 23 (in the year 2000 during the legco election) and cleanly shaven has been posted by willioningfei.

I thank him for reminding me how I got walloped in that particular election. hahahahhaha

Afterall, Obama got his fanny kicked in an election in 2000 too.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Angela Merkel's deep question...

Question of the day...

With capitalist Washington forced to buy shares of major banks to stop them going bust after years of loose regulation, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up in Communist East Germany, was quoted in Focus magazine telling her Cabinet the following joke:

"What's the difference between Communism and Capitalism?

Answer: The Communists nationalised all the companies first -- and then ruined them."


Came from the Guardian... With more short facts like the one above here...

At least something is making a record high...

I have always said that out of the many different assets, the first to break through its recent record high would be Gold.

I was wrong...

Cocoa hits 23-year high on supply fears

Published: 00:50 - 24/12/08

Cocoa prices on Tuesday surged to a 23-year high as speculative investors poured into the market amid concerns about dwindling supplies from Ivory Coast, by far the world's largest producer.

Prices for cocoa have risen 70 per cent in the past year, bucking the weakness in overall commodities prices.

The drop in sterling has helped push London-based, sterling-denominated cocoa futures higher, but analysts said the main factor was low supplies.

The International Cocoa Organisation said in its latest monthly report that cocoa bean arrivals until the end of November at ports in Ivory Coast, which provides almost 40 per cent of the world's supplies, were the lowest in years.

"Only 251,000 tonnes of beans are estimated to have reached the local ports during the first two months of the current season, a level around 40 per cent below average for the four preceding seasons," it said.

The problem has continued in December – the traditional peak of the harvesting season – because of the impact of cold weather and heavy rains earlier this year, the so-called black pod disease, reduced use of fertiliser because of high prices and a spate of strikes among farmers and customs personnel, traders said. They added that cocoa supplies from Ivory Coast's west African neighbour Ghana, the second largest producer, were also lower than last season.

As a result, Fortis bank warned that the market faces its third seasonal deficit in a row, further depleting global stocks, which are already at a 20-year low. Inventories are at 39 per cent of global consumption, down from 54 per cent in 2005-06.

In London, Euronext.Liffe cocoa for delivery in May, the market benchmark, on Tuesday jumped to £1,820 a tonne, the highest since October 1985, and 4 per cent higher on the day. New York cocoa futures, denominated in dollars, have risen almost 30 per cent in the past year.

Fortis, nevertheless, said the market was overbought, warning that traders were "fully discounting that, on the production side, everything that can go wrong . . . will indeed go wrong", without paying attention to lower demand because of the impact of the economic crisis.

Although cocoa consumption has been in the past resilient to economic downturns, traders forecast a drop next year, particularly in the US and Europe.


Recession proof comfort food anyone?

祝醫療券好運

噚日,孫柏文同一個中學同學講電話。我以前讀Island School,呢個同學係個鬼仔,我做學生會主席時係我嘅「局長」。傾傾吓,講到明愛醫院有病人暈咗喺門口,跟住醫院嘅詢問處職員叫同病人一齊嘅仔打999嗰單嘢。

按指引做怕孭鑊


佢話睇西報都有睇到呢單嘢,而佢嘅結論係:「There's no common sense left in Hong Kong.」你話一個中國人用咁嘅說話鬧都算,不過由一個前殖民官員嘅下一代講,真係特別難聽。

我自己都有諗過,究竟要發生過咩事,公司流程要點,先會令嗰位詢問處職員有咁嘅建議。喺我個腦就開始浮現一間會議室。

冇錯,一定係會議室開始。

跟住就見到一個好惡、開口埋口都講「紀律」、「系統」,亦升職升得好快嘅小頭目,指住一個年紀大過佢嘅下屬大大聲鬧:「我唔理為乜,你冇跟住手冊去做就係錯。」

唔理common sense照跟


小頭目跟住就向會上其他職員話:「下次再有人唔跟手冊做,我會跟人事部指引,即炒。公司仲要唔使賠糧。」

如果我有份開嗰個會,真係連我都可能將僅有嘅 common sense拋掉。

系統一定要有,問題係點樣先有常理。只要個系統冇競爭嘅鞭策,就最終會變到冇常理,政府醫院就係咁。一月一日醫療券將會推出,希望啲民辦嘅醫療機構爭氣。

祝醫療券好運!

Monday, December 22, 2008

SCMP letters to the editors...

Ok... This is the first letter 2 weeks ago by Martin Brinkley of Ma Wan...

Neoconservative quick fixes will roll back years of progress

The swift solutions proposed by neoconservatives in our community to counteract the financial crisis could roll back in weeks the progress made on many fronts in recent years.

Out go the minimum wage for local workers and better working conditions for staff in cross-border enterprises. In come the relaxation of anti-smoking legislation, shelving the tax on plastic bags, embarking on mega construction projects regardless of the consequences to public health and quality of life, destroying the historical centre of our city, selling off parts of public beaches and giving public funds to wealthy citizens to buy consumer goods they do not need. These are just some of the ideas that have been put forward.

Unfortunately our government, desperate to create jobs at any cost, will clutch at every straw that floats past and the naked self-interest displayed in these proposals will be conveniently overlooked.

Instead of harnessing public sentiment that is belatedly recognising the virtues of thrift, long-term vision and a productive and sustainable economy, our gullible government will be dazzled by proposals put forward by the neocons to embark on an orgy of quick fixes that will create only short-term opportunities and lead us down the same boom-and-bust route that created the problems we are facing in the first place.

There have been many illuminating and informative articles published recently on the causes of the financial crisis, a marriage of unsustainable greed and easy credit and its consequences in the form of global warming, environmental degradation and ever-increasing income disparity and social divisions.

Hopefully some officers in the administration are reading these rather than listening to the bleating of the neocons.

The world is on the edge of a precipice. The financial crisis is a wake-up call that unabated consumerism will cast us into the abyss. Our community must ignore the demands of the neocons and with a 21st century vision follow a sustainable economic model that turns challenges into opportunities and curses into blessings.

Martin Brinkley, Ma Wan


And after reading it, I sent a letter to SCMP as a reply...

Neocon label harms debate

I read with great disappointment the letter from Martin Brinkley (Neoconservative quick fixes will roll back years of progress, December 12).

While sharing his opposition to many of the supposed anti-financial-tsunami government policies mentioned in his letter, such as Japan-style construction projects, I am dismayed by his casual labelling of all things he opposed as neoconservative.

Admittedly, attaching the George W. Bush label to any policies worldwide is a crude but effective way to spin and garner opposition, but it unfortunately harms the honest debate needed to truly win the hearts and minds of the people. And without honest debate, a healthy and functioning democracy will remain beyond our grasp.

A good example of honest debate winning hearts and minds occurred recently concerning another of Mr Brinkley's plethora of issues.

While he believes it should be made law today, we at the Lion Rock Institute remain steadfast against the minimum wage. We are unwavering in our efforts to protect workers such as new migrants and the young seeking to get on that crucial first step of their career ladders.

In fact, invited by the Civic Party, we recently sent our 26-year-old research associate Nicole Alpert to debate senior counsel Ronny Tong Ka-wah and veteran union leader Lee Cheuk-yan on this issue. After spirited debate, the audience consisting of Civic Party members held a vote.

They voted to oppose the minimum wage.

Perhaps Mr Brinkley has been on this non-fully-democratic barren rock of Hong Kong for too long and has forgotten that institution that holds up democracy - the free market of ideas.

Andrew Shuen, research director, Lion Rock Institute


My letter touched a nerve over at the Civic Party, which then sent another reply to the SCMP.

Civic debate


I refer to the letter from the Lion Rock Institute's research director, Andrew Shuen (Neocon label harms debate, December 17), which mentioned the Civic Party's recent civic debate on the minimum wage. I feel some clarification is needed.

The Civic Party's English Language Group organises civic debates, normally on a monthly basis, on various topics of interest, covering political, economic and social issues.

These debates, which are sometimes discussions rather than formal debates, are open to the public, are publicised in the media and are free.

Invariably, the majority of those attending are not Civic Party members.

This was the case at the civic debate discussion on the minimum wage that Mr Shuen referred to in his letter.

I agree with him that the discussion was spirited, but surely that is what a debate or discussion is all about?

John Shannon, deputy convenor, English Language Group, Civic Party


Contrary to rumours I heard, I applaud this frank admission by the Civic Party that that particular debate was held.

And people were telling me they are acting as if that debate and vote was never held... tsk tsk... vicious rumours...

三十幾歲真大鑊?

上個禮拜,孫柏文睇《信報》見到兩篇文章。

第一篇就係「三十會」龔耀輝寫嘅「三十幾歲,真『大鑊』」,大家睇題都應估到文章重點。

第二篇就係林行止先生寫嘅回應,題為「漁火偷渡客 江上數峰青」,文中林生分享佢來港嘅經驗,重點係「如果今日啲三十歲嘅人慘,咁當年呢?」

想成功勢要就

林生仲用Malcolm Gladwell本書《Outliers:The Story of Success》,裏面話人如要對某項技能叻,就要用一萬小時鑽研,叫我哋呢啲三十世代勤力啲。林生亦將書名譯成《表表者之勤有功》。

我想加多筆,將書名譯為《表表者之勤有功、勢要就》。

點解我要咁多手?因為書中,作者列出由埃及妖后數起,75個人類歷史裏最有錢嘅人,當中有14個都係19世紀中、出生年份只相隔9年嘅花旗國人。所以作者就話除勤力外,要做表表者,時勢就唔就都非常緊要。

咁特區有冇呢個現象?有。睇《福布斯》特區富豪榜同維基百科,李嘉誠1928年出世、李兆基1928、鄭裕彤1925、霍英東1923、陳廷驊1923、何鴻燊1921,拉闊小小仲可以包括1918年出世嘅包玉剛。佢哋上榜好多年,所以勢都係要就先得。

咪睇小中年窮

咁今日我呢啲三十幾歲,係咪真大鑊?大家試想,如果你上世紀50年代喺街撞到以上、今時今日嘅超級富豪,你當時又會唔會覺得佢哋將會成功到咁誇張?

如何避開馬多夫同迷債

之前,孫柏文曾經同大家分析過,四級投資者中,有邊兩級會買迷債輸錢。而四級嘅分別就係,最低級「唔識」,之後就係「半桶水」,跟住就有「識嘢」,最後亦係最高級嘅有「叻得滯」。

之前話過,「半桶水」同「叻得滯」嘅投資者,就會因買迷債輸錢。

輸錢嘅非富則貴


其實,睇花旗國馬多夫500億美元騙局,輸錢者都係一樣。當然,輸錢嘅全部都係非富則貴。

第一級知道自己「唔識」嘅投資者,一聽到馬多夫啲「期權正股對冲」策略,就會腳軟。跟住就話:「我都唔識。幫我買啲國債收息就OK。」所以冇事。

第二級「半桶水」嘅投資者,聽到馬多夫管嘅錢喺咩時世都有穩定回報。又聽到佢係前交易所主席,好多其他有錢人信佢,信譽良好,要提款時速度非常快,一於畀晒啲錢佢管。所以輸大錢。

第三級「識嘢」嘅投資者,一睇馬多夫之前投資回報紀錄,就會諗:「條友點解可以咁勁,咩市況都係咁穩定同必贏?不過自己用番呢十幾年嘅收市價,去砌番個model,都砌唔到佢嘅紀錄。」深明呢個世界冇免費午餐,所以避之則吉,最後冇事。

叻得滯以為筍嘢

咁第四級「叻得滯」嘅投資者又點?佢哋絕對明白咁穩定同必贏嘅回報,肯定唔正常。但又知道馬多夫除咗幫人管錢之外,旗下公司係好多隻股票嘅流通量供應者(即係做莊)。

佢哋深信馬多夫一定係喺做莊活動中,攞到啲買賣盤嘅獨家資訊,跟住好冇道德咁攞啲獨家資訊嚟搵錢。所以不但會瞓身,仲要問滙豐(005)借。

最後點?大家心照。

Saturday, December 20, 2008

物理學... Physics...

物理學呢家野,可以好仆佳...

Physics can be a real bitch...

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

香港醫生太羞恥

噚日,孫柏文揸揸吓車聽收音機話:「亞視管理層又出現大變動,商務及經濟發展局副局長蘇錦樑……」
我嘅即時反應係:「嘩!曾經向英女皇效忠過嘅蘇錦樑,過檔亞視!」
點知收音機繼續解釋:「蘇錦樑表示,政府關注事態發展。」

聽完我就諗,亞視經過連日嚟嘅發展,真係已經冇乜嘢係完全意料之外。

「張王配」做大戲

我甚至推斷,張永霖同王維基其實已經加入咗,早排霸佔旺角行人專用區嘅「好戲量」劇團。張、王兩人只係做一齣大家作為觀眾都可以參與嘅戲。
我只怕觀眾知道佢哋加入咗「好戲量」,會投擲鏹水彈。到時希望王維基嘅身手有布殊咁敏捷。

可能係一廂情願,不過真係唔想「張王配」呢陣特區密室中罕有嘅清風,只吹得12日就因王維基走人玩完。

可能今次完全係王維基嘅佈局,希望香港人知道亞視幾腐敗,無綫(511)幾獨大,之後政府發新嘅數碼廣播電視牌照時,唔可以送畀亞視、無綫,一定要通過拍賣、投標。城電(1137)就可以買牌,搞免費大氣電波電視。

一場非常豪邁嘅「勾」牌行動!

私有領匯有私心

講起特區呢個密室,今日立法會將會辯論促請政府國有化領匯(823)嘅動議。咁硬膠民粹嘅嘢,仲居然係醫學界功能組別嘅梁家騮議員諗出嚟。

點解功能組別都搞民粹嘢?因為以前冇領匯時,屋邨營業醫生嘅舖位係分餅仔。所以佢哋可以從屋邨攞綜援啲公公、婆婆、BB仔手中,冇競爭咁收錢,之後買波子跑車媾姐仔。

有領匯之後,居然要競爭,就當然想時光倒流,搵弱勢政府接管,跟住又可以買波子媾姐仔。

如果梁家騮嘅想法係一般醫生嘅想法,香港啲醫生實在太羞恥。

---------------------------

There are responses to the piece above that first appeared in my column in today's Apple Daily over at my last entry. Copied to here...

孫先生:

拜讀了閣下在《蘋果日報》經濟版的專欄,小弟想補充一點資料:

其實「領匯」未成立前,房署商場裡的醫生診所,有些不成文的很不公平的規定:位置永遠是最差最偏僻的(因為人們不會行行下見到忽然想入來看個醫生先…);就算是同一個鋪位,用來作診所的比起其他做行業的租金都會忽然地貴了一大截,原因不明(行家很自然便會戲言:可能房署的大官們都以為,醫生們都是搵大錢搵陰質錢的,他們俾得起…)。這些事情存在多年,大家都只是乾忍而沒有發聲。

好了,到了領匯來接管了,美化商場,重新規劃,美其名是說將診所Group埋一齊,其實是全都被逼遷到比原來位置更差(例如何文田區某舊村商場,以往人所共知都是故意避開的,只是開些文具鋪之類;但是領匯本著「最差鋪位必歸診所」的關係,真的將望向「萬國大酒店」的鋪位劃為診所區;我唔相信公公婆婆們會入來看醫生囉,啋,大吉利是咩…)

無得揀,你唔妥協咩?佢咪唔同你續約囉,逼你走,領匯這度板斧大家都耳熟能詳的了;再唔係就加你三四五倍租(無錯,醫生們的是搵陰質錢的)。屋村醫生的是札根地區的,靠的都是街坊生意,老實說除非你很掂又真的仲後生,否則大部份都不敢貿貿然搬走的;重新黎過起碼又要守得三五七年…

除左咁,「市值租金」一事又是萬般詭異。領匯常說房署時代租金太低,現在大翻新了,要交市值租金。領匯便延續房署時代的不公平政策,再來個發揮得淋漓盡致,先來個市租,做診所的?好,市租上再添一點,這才叫做「合理」。大佬,咁點做呀?如果要絕對「公平」,大家一齊交市租,好,咁既然數目一樣,我不如租港景峰啦,駛乜踎響何文田……訧等於宜家叫你交「市租」,用新樓曼克頓山的租金價來租樓齡卅年的荔景山道陳舊居屋屋苑,咁就夠哂公平了!領匯商場就是領匯商場,怎可能說位於市區地王就是要收天價租金的?!一句到尾,佢就係睇死你唔會走唔敢走的(診所嘛,街坊網絡最重要)。

其實經濟轉差,行行怨氣都加深了;私家醫生尤甚,經營環境真的跟經濟週期有著莫大關係,不得不承認現在個市真的淡了很多。但是本人絕對唔以作為醫生為恥。不是說啊醫生很辛苦training很慘行醫生很偉大云云等陳腔濫調,我不會說這些;而是做醫生既是一份工作,也都是服務人的,照顧人的,絕對不是奇貨可居的陰質錢。我自己都有同學,大學時代起我從來都不覺得他偉大,絕對不是甚麼「好人」,食飯唔俾錢借了我的筆記又唔還;但他都會知道公公婆婆沒錢,減收甚至免了診金或藥費;而且這樣做的不止他一個人。

始終,屋村普通科醫生,以我幹了這行這麼多年看,正所謂餓你唔死囉,但你要發達渣波子媾姐仔就「mun」D囉。除非你是「中移動股神」,但話是話,如果屋村咁掂你就唔駛成日要 kup住個市啦。又除非你是大國手在嘉賓大廈有幾間鋪在中環813返工,咁你絕對可以渣波子媾姐仔囉;但又有幾多人可以響返中環813先至得架,個定位都唔同。屋村鋪就係屋村鋪,在商言商我相合孫生你仲明白過我地啦,絕對唔係歧視唔係social class discrimination。

不過,話說回來,如果說醫生是「低能」,這點我倒不會完全否定。為甚麼呢?其實這行業就像國民黨,派系問題嚴重,不同的會
代表著不同的利益集團。你看當年醫學界功能組別選舉你便會知道。所以,梁醫生這個動議,就應該不會是代表著他所代表的集團而提出的(所以「所有醫生都是無恥」這個說法更不成立);至於為何要為「他人」(個人相信又未至於「敵國」既,始終選舉都已經過去了)提出這個動議,是為了平衡利益呀還是為了代表業界利益呀甚麼,我就一點都不知道了;始終議員任期有成四年咁長喎…。

與其說醫生低能,不如說是太「高能」,太散了,但是管理的都竟然還一樣是醫生。就是他們瞭解這一點,於是就最擅長利用這一點達到目的,分化你,打擊你。你看醫管局跟年青醫生的角力,每一回都是這樣,分化唔同的集團,所以最終都係建制贏哂,年青醫生勢孤力弱,必定輸哂。你看最近的「強制簽九年長約」事件你就知啦,難怪我的師弟跟我說是否要改名叫自己做「Isabella」,只可惜佢沒有認識到一個小超人做後盾……

太長氣了,最後必定要說明一點:本人是私人執業專科醫生,不是屋村普通科醫生,沒有呃公公婆婆BB仔的綜援錢,也沒有渣波子沒有媾姐仔。我只是每天很努力的工作賺錢養家,上有高堂下有妻室。不是渣不起波子的問題,唔係話做醫生賺的就會是陰質錢,而是每個人的價值觀不同,在旺角做Saleslady都會有人拎住LV袋返工,就是這個意思。Again, 絕對唔係歧視唔係social class discrimination。


Let the debate continue...

No excuse

For those who know people who butcher the pronunciation of these names.

And yet, not very sure whether their own pronunciations are correct...

There are no more excuses (hat tip beatster).

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

好戲量的新成員

天方夜譚咁諗... 真係好天方夜譚咁諗...

我真係覺得,如果張永霖同王維基聽日走出來話:「其實我哋兩個只係學好戲量...大家覺得好唔好睇呢?」

I am not surprised one bit.

Talk show on Al Jazeera

Ok...



The thrower of the shoe...

If he wants it... He is so getting a talk show on Al Jazeera.

hahhahahahhha

Monday, December 15, 2008

ATV... Empire Strikes back

Ok.

Lots of points.

1. Why was the resignation announced by Linus Cheung as answer to the last question in a press conference concerning Miss Asia? What if no one asked anymore questions? WTF?

2. Does Ricky Wong want to go? Does he know what is going on?

3. If he wanted to go, is it because there is an
expectation difference in how free he can be in running ATV? He must have expected the worst when it came to operations, culture and money, but what about his freedom to make moves?

3. If he didn't want to go, will Ricky Wong name his assasin?

This saga continues...

我要學倪震

相信大家都知道,上個禮拜有兩名電訊業從業員,入咗弱勢電視台做嘢都冇幾日,該台新聞部已有好幾個高層離開。

大家又可能聽過佢哋走嘅原因,係因為新行政總裁問咗幾條問題,佢哋唔識答所以就走。

答不到的問題

重溫,嗰幾條問題包括:
1.成個新聞部有幾多人?
2.總共人工支出係幾多?
3.咁究竟整個新聞部一年總支出幾多?

大家可能會話:「以上幾條問題充滿銅臭味。唔通淨係一味講錢?」孫柏文覺得,作為高層答唔到嗰幾條問題都已抵炒,不過新行政總裁就明白事理得多。

聽聞,睇到啲新聞部高層唔識答,佢嘅結論就係嗰間電視台嘅人對錢唔關心、小心。咁新行政總裁就話:「大家可能覺得,只係專心追求做得好啲新聞節目同內容就夠,但係用錢時都要得平衡。咁以後用KPI大家有得跟啦。」

高層聽到即問:「KPI?咩嚟o架?」

到呢刻,各人已感到天下無不散之筵席。

用KPI量度效率

KPI即Key Performance Indicators,係管理學大師Peter Drucker非常支持,用嚟量度運作效率嘅客觀數據指標。電視節目KPI,就可能係節目支出同收視率要維持某個比例。

咁點解今日我揚言要學倪震?根據友報報道,倪震媾啲十八、廿二少女,畀電話號碼時,會話:「call我,15分鐘即到。」事實證明,倪震呢個承諾,係其中一個可以令你成功媾女嘅KPI。

15分鐘即到,我都要做得到。

最後,噚日點解曾特首落旺角?佢幾時變咗柯南?

Friday, December 12, 2008

Was this a recruitment video?電子草船?

Although I don't know if these were intended to be recruitment videos.
I don't know if these were filmed and put on line for the sole purpose to be viewed by POTENTIAL RECRUITS. 王維基做傳教士,搵緊信徒...

I strongly suspect this will turn out to be one of Hong Kong's greatest recruitment video series.

Perhaps Linus and Ricky sat down, brainstormed, and asked each other, "How are we going to attract those who wants/can subvert the current order... Yet knowing the high cost of being a rebel in Prefect-worshipping Hong Kong, reduce their worry of betting their career on ATV?"

Watch the following. Esp beginning at the 7:00min mark.
Watch the final 47 sec.



「...將來有興趣加入嘅員工...」 電子草船,你越射佢,佢就越借到人。



-------------------------

As for why the videos were removed earlier today by ATV, and then re added later...

I am sure our house paper will report tommorrow. As ATV leaks information like a sieve. But from my own viewing... They seem to have re added the bits that was edited out in the original version.

If thats true.

Once again... Change we can believe in.

王維基如何打爆陳志雲

以前孫柏文做分析員時,因寫嘅報告不時被老闆批評為「flowery language」,又因經常被老闆問:「咁樣寫嘢,你應該去做編劇呀?」

所以我去演藝學院讀咗個初級編劇課程,睇吓老闆有冇睇錯。

直播開會有收視

上第一堂,導師就話:「張力就係drama。」而入咗傳媒做之後,更明白有戲劇性就自然多人睇呢個道理。現在邊間傳媒機構最有張力?肯定係亞視。

禮拜二新行政總裁王維基同新聞部職員開會,禮拜三啲職員放料畀報紙spin佢係衰人,到禮拜四又見到王維基喺專欄還拖counter spin。

淨係咁睇已經覺得王維基唔掂,咁正嘅嘢居然益晒我哋啲報紙,應該留番畀亞視。

橫掂王維基都喺佢嘅專欄話:「第一步開始,我就會誠實、坦白、開放。我的底線是,沒有東西是不能公開的,你以為我會不知道今天說的話,明天會刊登於報紙嗎?」所以就不如將佢同職員開會做現場直播,佢哋雖然已將開會片段放上Youtube,不過冇理由唔搵埋錢。

叮走高層真人騷


到直播時王維基為提高張力,就可學Donald Trump喺《飛黃騰達》咁問:「主播A,點解留你唔留主播B?」

跟住就睇主播A、B互插。

之後,王維基就會指住其中一個佢覺得唔掂嘅主播話:「You're fired!」

最後仲有部的士畀送走被炒員工,做埋訪問攞感想。

咁嘅真人show嘅收視率,一定贏無綫。

到時候,陳志雲再上幾多次雪山、食幾多個飯局(hat tip moneycafe),都會被王維基打爆。唔通我舊老闆啱咗?我應該去做編劇?

熱烈祝賀劉錫明成功去除毒瘤!

我諗好多三十打後嘅港男,對劉錫明有某程度出於內疚嘅支持。

當年被倪震係咁用「傳媒暴力」手法,標籤佢做「毒瘤明」,我哋呢班人都冇反對過。今日,劉錫明成功去除毒瘤,值得熱烈祝賀!

不過唔知大家有冇咁諗過呢單野。周慧敏單身囉!

周慧敏 is single!
周慧敏 is available!



AVAILABLE!



---------------------------



不過最勁肯定係佢...



周慧敏 slayer

Thursday, December 11, 2008

亞視 is for real...

While those who don't, thinks Ricky Wong's answers are ramblings... Those who do know, I can bet will think that his thinking is crystal concerning ATV.

The videos below are their Employee briefing by management held on 9th Dec 2008.

Its a must Watch.

Both the CEO and the Chairman, are selling the employees a vision. I don't know what kind of people, or at least the people with what kind of characteristics would be attracted to work at ATV in the past... Hence what kind of talent/attitude profile exists in ATV right now... But would the employees buy it?

Part 1 of 7...



Part 2 of 7...



Part 3 of 7...



Part 4 of 7...



Part 5 of 7...



Part 6 of 7...



Part 7 of 7...



I ask again... Who in ATV right now, still has a beating heart that wants to fight the good fight?

When Steve Jobs returned to Apple Inc in the 90s... There were those who would burn the midnight oil at the company to stay with him round the clock to make and push new products...

Do these people exists in ATV?

It could be indicative, that at the 2m45s of part 7, an employee stood up and asked, "Ricky, I buy this crap you are selling. I ask not what the company can do for me, I ask what I can do for my company."

Good Luck.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

熊貓咬人點解唔使坐監?





孫柏文呢排睇到花旗國3大汽車公司問國會攞錢嘅情況。不過國會對汽車工業嘅要求,肯定同之前對銀行業非常唔同。

例如,有議員話通用汽車要攞錢,就要換話事人。雖然聽落合情合理,但之前啲銀行攞錢呢?直至今日,花旗銀行嘅魯賓都仲喺董事局也文也武。

有好多唔明金融業對保持社會日常運作有貢獻嘅特區人,成日都話:「金融業唔係實業,只得炒炒賣賣。製造工業先至最重要。」

對於呢類人,見到花旗國國會今日嘅所作所為,結論就係擺到明歧視汽車業。對於呢啲睇落非常肉酸,唔係一視同仁嘅舉動,特區都有。

作為一個前唐狗狗主,人類養活咁多動物中,狗對人嘅貢獻最實在。如果類比工業種類,狗就肯定係汽車業。而不能自然咁適者生存,就要政府出手相救嘅銀行,對於嗰啲覺得金融業只係炒炒賣賣嘅人,銀行就係熊貓。

一視同仁才可服人

早排海洋公園發生熊貓咬人事件。海洋公園快速判斷非熊貓之錯,仲要話係人為行政錯誤。如果係隻狗咬人,已經要去漁農處坐一個禮拜監。

所以要人服,就要一視同仁,就算係國寶或銀行,做錯事都要受罰。

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

王維基 即搞 港版 The Apprentice


First show idea for ATV...

王維基 is holding meetings with employees.

I suggest they should put the whole thing in front of a camera.

And then 王維基 would ask the employees (just like The Apprentice) who should be fired.

And then after a discussion, 王維基 will lay off those workers with "You're Fired."

They can then interview the fired employees when they leave on the Taxi.

I will say the only problem is if he starts tomorrow, the advertising dept might not get business quick enough.

Which means the meeting on the day after tomorrow would be the ad dept.

But my bet is... If he does this, his ratings will kill TVB's...

More blood on the streets in Tai Po industrial Estate

More firings rumoured over at ATV.

News dept again.

Won't happen before Chinese New Year... But it is expected to be a bloody 14th of Feb...

Valentine's Day Massacre?

Newspapers cut cut cut

Tribune company has filed for bankruptcy. Owner of the Chicago Tribune and the LA Times.

NY Times has no money and has to mortgage its HQ building.

Well... Maybe PCCW should scrap its privatization deal and go for one of these companies hahahahhaha

I mean compared to those aforementioned companies, NowTV and HK Economic Journal seems so mundane. Come on Richard! We are still yearning for your next great move. You can't tell us getting the Cyberport deal was your last home run...

PCCW will use US$1.9b cash to buyout its small shareholders. Maybe can buy something else?

I mean if you had US$1.9b cash, will you use it to buy PCCW?... Exactly.

Monday, December 08, 2008

Where's my bailout?



Now... This is the kinda content I would love to create.

Conclusion... 2000 Tech companies, unlike 2008 auto/finance companies, didn't screw up enough.

黃金12月大茶飯

上個禮拜,孫柏文識得嘅貴金屬投資者,相當興奮。佢哋咁興奮嘅原因,係因為黃金市場出現期貨平過現貨嘅情況,即係backwardation。

書本中對於backwardation嘅解釋,就係當一樣貨品嘅供應突然出問題,未來交收嘅期貨價會低過即時交收嘅現貨價。

期貨價低過現貨價

而最重要係根據佢哋嘅研究,黃金市場喺歷史裏面,backwardation從未發生過

其實,對上幾個月都已經有好多黃金投資者,話今年12月黃金市場嘅運作會出大鑊嘢。佢哋話睇12月需要做交收嘅黃金買賣合約,賣方根本冇足夠嘅黃金畀人。

佢哋又咬牙切齒咁話啲買家一定要攞黃金實貨走,所以就會出現比起上次大眾汽車股價一日升幾倍更厲害嘅挾沽倉行動。

講真,聯儲局為首嘅紙幣狂魔集團,已經走到差不多最後一步。當聯儲局會印新鈔票去賠畀啲銀行,直接購買佢哋嘅有問題資產,代表借咗錢嘅人去還錢,呢個就係佛利民話齋嘅high powered money。如無意外,奧巴馬下台前,就會有一場失控大通脹。

引發挾倉隨時大升


12月已經過咗一個禮拜,好快就會知黃金係咪真係會有咁厲害嘅挾沽倉行動。最後,呢幾日好多人都問我知唔知加藤鷹嚟咗香港。我只可以話《金手指》係佢老哥隻「金手指」嘅fan屎。超勁!

唔使買台都可搞電視?

噚日睇電視直播記者招待會,真係一股清新嘅凉風。

不過同大家講凉風之前要鬧吓啲政府官員。禮拜三嘅《金手指》,已經話到明泰國曼谷機場事件冇咗嘅話,下一個政治爆發點一定係啲因「短加長減」收費改動,而非常勞氣嘅的士司機。最後搞到的士圍堵機場,交通癱瘓。

最可悲係引爆點居然係一張解釋新收費嘅小冊子,喺曼谷機場,政府錯在對旅客要嘅資訊唔夠流通;喺特區機場,唔通錯在資訊太過流通?一張解釋新政策嘅小冊子,引發咁大反應,都係對新政策嘅一個判刑。

講番嗰股清新嘅凉風。噚日睇亞洲電視新任執行主席張永霖,同CEO王維基嘅記者招待會,真係好耐未睇過咁真心實意嘅對答。兩個人赤裸裸喺鏡頭同記者前,講佢哋嘅憂慮同期望。

張永霖一開波就話冇商業機構可以頂得順長期不斷蝕錢。記者們聽到「蝕錢」,就會反射式得一個結論:「裁員呀!裁員呀!」王維基嘅答案就係嗰股清新嘅凉風,冇公關化妝嘅惡臭。

縱蝕錢 唔一定裁員

如果總結王維基嘅說話,就係隊球隊不斷輸波,都要畀佢睇吓係咪唔夠球員,或者太多,係咪要減少後衞球員加前鋒人數。不過點都好,始終都係一隊香港球隊,冇理由一世注定咁水皮。

呢一刻真係好想知TVB管理層有咩感覺。

我諗張永霖、王維基想搞電視好耐,而喺特區想搞電視嘅人都好多。不過佢兩個只係打工,唔係自己生意,誘因會否不夠?從誘因角度嚟睇,自己搞或買電視台會好啲。呵呵!

----------------------------------

ATV has announced today that 4 high ranking management has "resigned".

The plane's cockpit is being reshuffled.

Thursday, December 04, 2008

非劇集類的中產及高檔路線節目

Exactly what does the following mean?

王 維 基 說 日 後 主 打 中 產 及 高 檔 路 線 , 發 展 非 劇 集 類 的 節 目 , 裁 員 並 非 首 要 考 慮 。


I mean what exactly is 「非劇集類的中產及高檔路線節目」?

ummm...

Is it this?

黎智英... TVB CEO?

兩個人入亞視搞搞震,肯定effective過一個人。

張 永 霖 : 亞 視 已 蝕 50 億   王 維 基 : 裁 員 非 首 要 考 慮
2008-12-04 HKT 18:27

亞 洲 電 視 管 理 層 大 換 班 , 委 任 前 電 訊 盈 科 副 主 席 張 永 霖 出 任 執 行 主 席 , 城 市 電 訊 王 維 基 , 擔 任 行 政 總 裁 。

張 永 霖 表 示 , 亞 視 長 期 嚴 重 虧 損 , 已 經 超 過 50 億 元 , 有 需 要 改 革 , 首 要 目 標 是 達 致 收 支 平 衡 。

王 維 基 說 日 後 主 打 中 產 及 高 檔 路 線 , 發 展 非 劇 集 類 的 節 目 , 裁 員 並 非 首 要 考 慮 。


兩個人都有野要prove...

張永霖:Richard Li 李澤楷當年話佢唔得兼好廢。依家有機會去証明 Richard 當年睇錯。

如果 NowTV 嘅新台 Now 100 唔掂,不過亞視搞起咗,都夠刺激。

王維基:有如佢老哥嘅 HK Broadband 記者問,寬頻TV都只不過係咁,憑乜搞得好ATV?所以係有戰意去prove人睇錯。不過有老闆唔做,走去打工?

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

一夜拉晒折扣的士

孫柏文真係估唔到,一場泰國政治示威,最終威脅嘅政權係我哋特區政府。一場非暴力抗爭,居然流咗香港人嘅血。

其實,如果唔係咁多特區人滯留泰國,最後仲遇上車禍,政府今日面對嘅最大政治問題就會唔同。

冇「滯留泰國 + 車禍」問題,又會係咩問題?肯定就係因為折扣的士出現,所以政府推出「市區的士有、新界的士冇」嘅「短加長減」的士收費改動。

多都唔講,淨係因為由機場出發去偏遠新界地方時,搭市區的士平新界的士好多,搞到新界的士忽然冇晒生意衍生出嚟嘅民怨,已經係好大嘅政治問題。

「短加長減」係對付長途折扣的士嘅政策,而因為長途乘客目的地或起點大多數都會包括市區,基本上折扣的士係市區的士嘅「家事」。不過政府應對嘅政策,居然害到無辜嘅新界的士,死未?

其實,「短加長減」係想抄襲折扣的士搭長途比較平嘅效果,亦因為出發點係咁,所以一定失敗。對於坐私家車嘅高級官員,折扣的士嘅神髓就係「平」,其實對乘客嚟講,真正嘅神髓係「時間換折扣」。

Call同等折扣的士係要時間,現在一刀切「短加長減」,只令嗰啲想有即時上車快感嘅乘客,無端端着數咗。

短加長減累新界的


行政機關搞咁多嘢,係因為冇能力正面回答「究竟折扣的士係咪唔搭得?」呢個問題。

所以我建議,不如一夜拉好多折扣的士司機同乘客,揀有代表性嘅例子告上法庭,不過同時資助佢哋打官司。特區有個三權分立、互相制衡嘅美麗機制,折扣的士最終係咪唔搭得?等官判。

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

零件走私客的迷思

幾日前,孫柏文睇電視新聞話有人想用水路走私電子零件,不過喺特區碼頭上貨時,被執法人員撞破。

呢啲走私新聞久不久就有,點解要特別講呢單?係因為各大電視傳媒報道話走私客「採取新上貨措施」,用木板自製運輸帶,借地心吸力將幾十箱貨由輕型貨車推落船。

其中一個電視台嘅記者,仲示範將一盒電子零件從高位跣落地,令觀眾感受到地心吸力嘅威力、木板運輸帶嘅偉大。

睇到呢刻我就開始諗,本港走私客對於營運效率嘅要求,應該係特區中數一數二。咁點解得一部輕型貨車量嘅貨,都要分幾十箱上貨?

散裝運貨三大理由

由有船運開始,人類都不斷搵方法將上貨時間盡量縮短。本港走私客更甚,因特區法制令上貨時間成為被拘捕嘅高危點。

而以前教育電視都解釋過,搬運一粒粒瑞士糖,比起一盒盒慢得多,咁點解走私客唔用集裝箱原理去整理咗貨品,先至上船?

同利世民討論呢個問題,得出幾個解釋可能。

第一個理由就係要再將幾十箱貨入大箱要用一定成本,因為被捕機會唔高到值回成本,所以唔做。
第二個理由就係細細盒上船,反而減低被識破嘅機會,因為有人睇到一大箱上船,會即刻報警。
第三個理由就係從成本角度嚟睇,被捕高危點根本不在特區。目的地嘅執法人員先至係走私客嘅顧慮,所以細細盒散貨比較安全。

點都好,歡迎呢個行業嘅fan屎指點迷津。

最後,香港唔係自由貿易港咩?
出口都有罪?
唔通要幫其他地方執行反走私法?
不如執行埋佢哋例如言論封鎖嘅法例。

Friday, November 28, 2008

政壇 丁蟹 公民黨

大家應該記得,喺9月嘅立法會選舉中,公民黨不斷被社民連狙擊。到3個月後嘅今日,都仲有公民黨黨員唔明,點解泛民中人要打佢哋。

公民黨抵打嘅原因,係因為佢哋個個都係政壇丁蟹。即係瘋狂地覺得自己啱晒,事實係點唔重要,人哋同佢話錯咗,或者咁樣搞唔得都冇用。

低碳經濟未必環保

今日講公民黨,係因為佢哋嘅黨魁余若薇,要求政府搞低碳經濟。低碳經濟係乜?就係盡量將我哋排放出嚟嘅二氧化碳,用得有效率。

二氧化碳點嚟?咪就係為運輸燒石油,或為電力燒煤炭時產生。

好,假設特首聽佢哋講搞低碳經濟,搵專家畀建議。大家知唔知到人類係乜嘢嘅群居模式,先至最低碳?就係高密度城市模式。《經濟學人》甚至話大家日日搭嘅升降機,其實係人類歷史中最環保嘅交通工具。

咁落實高密度政策即係要點做?即係俾人起樓時,起高啲囉!咁公民黨點做?咪走去迫政府瘋狂咁大幅減低新建樓宇嘅高度!

大家唔使問啲好多土地儲備嘅地產發展商,究竟公民黨喺環保上想做啲乜,因為佢哋都想知。

政策矛盾唔知想點

好啦,咁孫柏文或社民連呢啲民主派,因為想知公民黨點解可以支持啲咁矛盾嘅政策,就發炮問問。佢哋就會話點解民主派內訌!

最後,我都想講吓合和(054)嘅合和二期計劃。個計劃冇民意支持,係因為以前叫 Mega Tower,呢個名實在太八十年代,香港人唔 buy o架嘞。大佬呀,一開始叫個計劃做 Willow Tree 咪冇事囉。

Thursday, November 27, 2008

I need your advice on this...

Ok.

Something happening here.

As to what? I am not sure.

There seems to be a story behind this somewhere.

Perhaps you all can advice me as to what is going on.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

消費券?建華味濃

前日,孫柏文聽到立法會中,啲抽水議員話要求政府派發「消費券」,去幫助零售業。

大家一定會問:「如果要啲一次性還富於民嘅動作,點解啲議員唔直接要求退稅?如果怕交稅多嘅人攞番自己嘅血汗錢,點解唔人人派現金算?」

立法迫消費行唔通

點解唔派現金?因為怕大家攞咗錢之後唔用,擺番喺銀行,而銀行又同時冇能力或唔想放債,到時政府派錢都谷唔起經濟。

有見及此,啲低能議員就提議「消費券」呢條屎橋,諗住立法規定要消費,啲人就會消費。

究竟佢哋明唔明點解我哋唔肯消費?唔係因為我哋冇錢,而係因為我哋對前景冇希望。先唔講當一個消費者諗未來時,政府啲一次性動作係唔會有正面幫助。淨係因為「消費券」呢啲低能屎橋,實在太似當年董建華聽啲抽水議員提議而落實嘅動作。

董建華味太濃,更加嚇到啲人唔消費。

學台灣掂極有限

點解咁低能都提議?因為啲議員中五會考經濟科攞A。根據會考經濟科syllabus,七百萬人每日作出嘅經濟活動決定,用一條方程式就可以推斷。泵好多百億錢、谷谷消費,甚至乎學好似以前財政司梁錦松咁,想做啲嘢「勸阻」個人銀行存款,經濟就會欣欣向榮。

當然,大家可能會話:「不過台灣都推消費券喎。」我可以話,如果台灣啲經濟政策咁掂,經濟上我哋就唔會咁睇佢哋啦。

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

冇被裁員?有壞消息!

早排10月日日大跌市時,孫柏文有次睇花旗國財經台CNBC,節目主持人訪問一位行對冲基金咇嘅記者。

相信大家都記得,當時個市日日跌嘅其中一個原因,就係有好多投資對冲基金嘅有錢佬,大量贖回。引致對冲基金對於手上資產有價就沽,套現去應付贖回要求。

高呼好掂有玄機

當日,主持人問:「啲對冲基金呢排有乜風聲?」嗰位記者答:「以前搵佢哋講多兩句都難。不過今時今日,有幾個好有名氣嘅對冲基金經理,都特登打電話畀我,係咁講佢哋有幾掂。」講到呢到,一眾主持人立即一齊大笑。

跟住位記者補充:「打得電話嚟話自己有幾掂,就肯定唔慌好嘢啦!」講完,眾主持人又再起哄。

今日同大家分享呢個故事,就係因為睇到有個做玩具嘅實業家高姿態講投資貼士,同全世界講話自己掂到可以畀貼士嘅人,佢呢排仲唔掂過碌蔗!

有工冇假仲想點


不過點都好,呢個金融海嘯都好難捱。大到好似通用汽車,都話唔知捱唔捱到09年。所以,我相信大家未必細心研究過09年嘅日曆。

不過如果大家出年仲有份工,咁我有個壞消息。09年嘅清明、佛誕、中秋、boxing day等紅日,全部都係禮拜六。

不過有得怨,總好過冇得怨,起碼冇被裁員。

不過如果你失業,咁我唯一可以安撫你嘅說話,就係嗰班公務員喺09年仲唔還番畀啲納稅人?5天工作咁開心?可以當啲禮拜六紅日冇發生過啦!

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

白高敦狠打奧巴馬

周末舉行嘅G20會議有冇料到?純粹睇聲明,全世界嘅傳媒行家,已經話冇。佢哋咁講,因為聲明中冇啲可以做頭條嘅「開水炮」決定。不過孫柏文話呢個係好事,起碼G20嘅官員知道呢啲水炮動作已經冇用。

例如有行家話冇減息所以冇料到,咁之前減息有用咩?又有啲話冇泵新錢,咁泵幾多先有用?7000億美元?4萬億人民幣?咪就係冇用囉。當今市場參與者,已經好難撻着變興奮,所以份聲明應該冇炒作港股嘅角度。

新政策大方向解危機

不過對於解決根本嘅信貸危機,聲明中有好多新政策「大方向」,如果有心機落實,真係可以解決危機。G20已定咗09年3月31日,作為落實呢啲新政策嘅期限。所以要知係咪可以解決危機,就要睇吓落實細節。

例如,今時今日好多結構性產品市場已完全停頓,冇買賣。箇中原因,就係呢啲結構性產品嘅風險評級冇人信。多都唔講,淨係特區政府嘅證監已經唔信,你試吓今日話要賣AAA級結構性產品,攞銷售刊物畀證監批,睇怕到曾蔭權下台都未批。

所以,G20聲明話要喺 3月31日前,杜絕評級公司嘅利益衝突,如果真係做到就可以令市場對評級重拾信心,買賣又可開始。

通用汽車救不得


最後,一定要讚英揆白高敦,佢係第一個狠打奧巴馬嘅外國領袖。

白高敦已經大聲話,奧巴馬好想救嘅通用汽車唔救得,因為一救就會令全世界嘅社會主義硬膠大玩政府補貼,最後演變成貿易戰爭,世界各國啲排外嘅好戰鷹派就會得勢。

仲有,白高敦話世界貿易一定要更自由,否則一定大鑊,說話擺到明鬧花旗民主黨控制國會同奧巴馬。

今次G20會議,仲有好多嘢要跟。

Sunday, November 16, 2008

填表兩頁 千億到手


噚日,孫柏文喺屋企上網做緊資料搜集時,利世民忽然寄網上短訊畀我。短訊中,世民兄話:「好耐冇見。」亦問我近況如何。見佢咁有心,我就寄咗個網址畀佢,跟住叫佢去個網址度,填張表格去攞錢。

銀行求救易過借火

幾分鐘之後,佢回覆:「嘩!張攞錢申請表得兩頁,就連包括公司名、電話號碼、簽名、填表日期等嘅基本資料,都係得20條問題。攞錢快夾易!」

大家唔好誤會,仲估個網址同表格係啲乜乜兄弟財務公司。其實,個網址係花旗國聯邦政府財政部,而張表格就係畀啲銀行申請去攞嗰筆7000億美元救市方案嘅錢。

相信大家都半信半疑,不過張申請表真係得兩頁A4紙咁長,唔信可以去我嘅blog睇。

一場金融海嘯,監管一掃而空。

做錯決定政府善後


講真,銀行出事皆因太過進取,做錯咗好多商業決定。現在落得呢個田地,居然有人救,不但幾千億,仲要表格得兩頁。咁嘅政策,最憤怒當然就係嗰啲成功時要交重稅,不過作出錯誤商業決定時要自食惡果、冇人救嘅一群。

咁即係邊啲人?咪就係喺花旗國搞高科技嘅人。

大家要記得,當年克林頓可以將財赤變成盈餘,就係依靠科技股升值帶嚟嘅資產增值稅。不過當dotcom泡沫爆破時,有人出手救佢哋咩?

當然,佢哋冇要求政府救,因為佢哋好儍、好天真咁履行「做錯決定要執笠」呢個自由市場定律。到今時今日,佢哋個個都慨嘆,真係太過笨拙兼老實。

矽谷真係怨氣重。

Thursday, November 13, 2008

金融海嘯的好處?

秋風起,三蛇肥。小弟生肖屬蛇,一向避免食同類,特別係嗰啲肥美大懶蛇。點都好,天氣一轉凉,見到賣衫舖頭有番啲生意做吓,都係件好事。

不過,每年天氣因為開始吹北風轉凉時,孫柏文就覺得非常討厭,因為隨北風而來嘅,係令人唞氣窒住窒住嘅灰塵。

冇辦法,自十九世紀前宗主國嘅工業革命開始,一個地方喺生產力起飛時,都會出現嚴重嘅空氣污染。華南地區作為新嘅世界工場,當然都係一樣,後果就係一吹北風特區同享。

華南工廠爆結業潮

雖然天氣轉凉只有幾日,不過我發現今年冬天同往年有些少分別。以前開始吹北風時,喺將軍澳工業邨壹傳媒集團嘅煲煙大騎樓外望,係望唔到調景嶺,只有啡色一片。要知能見度有幾低,可以去Google map睇吓。

到今年雖然仲有煙霞,不過就可以清楚望到一棟棟五十層樓高嘅調景嶺住宅。我見到呢個情景,諗吓點解,就忍唔住諗起百靈達(2326)、合俊(2700)等,已經喺廣東省停產嘅工廠。唔通其中一個金融海嘯衍生出嚟嘅未預見後果,就係特區空氣可以改善?

特區空氣污染減少

好多人話經濟周期入面,有啲「自動穩定」現象(automatic stabilizer),即係經濟好時會自動煞車,經濟壞時就會令生產更有效能。

景觀有改善,空氣更清新,唔好話啲乜嘢旅遊業,淨係特區人民買少咗要外國進口嘅咳藥水,嗰度都為我哋嘅貿易順差慳番筆。

真係諷刺,我一生都爭取減少空氣污染,不過當企喺公司大騎樓煲煙時,望到調景嶺,真係百感交集。

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

幾個「市道有幾差」指標

孫柏文相信大家都感受到環球市道差。睇數據往往都話係n年嚟最差,不過問題係又有幾多人真係行走江湖n年,知道情況有幾壞。所以,今日我就為大家提供幾個故事指標,希望能令大家更明白今日有幾壞。

指標一:大陸現在廣泛流傳以下睇法。
1949年,只有共產主義能拯救中國。
1979年,只有資本主義能拯救中國。
1989年,只有中國能拯救共產主義。
2008年,只有中國能拯救資本主義。

BitTorrent裁五成員工

指標二:花旗國研發點對點下載軟件嘅 BitTorrent公司,宣佈裁減五成員工。相信作為《金手指》fan屎,你應該知道 BitTorrent,就係啲網民用嚟(有時候冇授權之下)下載電影、電視劇、音樂等嘅軟件。佢哋都要裁員,即係為賊仔造爆格工具都冇運行。

指標三:現在金融危機已令到好多祖宗十八代留咗大把錢喺度,發到毋須要追問世事嘅師奶,都想知究竟發生咩事。當今世上最毋須要追問世事嘅師奶,肯定就係英女皇,連佢都想知前因後果。所以佢就請咗個倫敦政治經濟學院LSE嘅教授,去白金漢宮講解吓。

教授講解完之後,英女皇就問:「點解咁大鑊,都冇人預見到?點解個個都睇唔到?」
教授答:「每一階段,啲有關人士都依賴其他人把關,搞到個個都仲估自己做緊啱嘅嘢。」
英女皇聽完就話:「Awful。」

我只可加多句:「Awful indeed。」

Sunday, November 09, 2008

That's why?

On 2008年 11月 08日, I wrote a post asking why 中國財政部長謝旭人突從秘魯回國...

32 hours there and then immediately 32 hours back.

Maybe this is why (from rthk)?

內 地 實 行 適 度 寬 鬆 貨 幣 政 策   未 來 2 年 用 4 萬 億 促 進 經 濟
2008-11-09 HKT 21:20

總 理 溫 家 寶 召 開 國 務 院 常 務 會 議 , 確 定 十 項 措 施 , 進 一 步 擴 大 內 需 、 促 進 經 濟 增 長 。 預 計 到 2010 年 底 , 約 需 投 資 4 萬 億 元 人 民 幣 。

會 議 提 出 , 要 實 行 積 極 的 財 政 政 策 , 以 及 適 度 寬 鬆 的貨 幣 政 策 。 十 項 措 施 包 括 取 消 對 商 業 銀 行 的 信 貸 規 模 限 制 , 並 在 全 國 所 有 行 業 全 面實 施 增 值 稅 轉 型 改 革 , 鼓 勵 企 業 技 術 改 造 , 減 輕 企 業 負 擔 。

會 議 決 定 , 今 年 四 季 度 先 增 加 安 排 中 央 投 資 1000 億 , 明 年 災 後 重 建 基 金 提 前 安 排 200 億 元 , 帶 動 地 方 和 社 會 投 資 , 總 規 模 達 到 4000 億 元 。


From our house Appleactionews

中 央 擴 大 內 需 救 市 2 年 投 資 4 萬 億

國 務 院 總 理 溫 家 寶 日 前 主 持 國 務 院 常 務 會 議 , 確 定 了 當 前 進 一 步 擴 大 內 需 、 促 進 經 濟 增 長 的 十 項 措 施 。

一 . 加 快 建 設 保 障 性 安 居 工 程 。 加 大 對 廉 租 住 房 建 設 支 持 力 度 , 加 快 棚 戶 區 改 造 。
二 . 加 快 農 村 基 礎 設 施 建 設 。
三 . 加 快 鐵 路 、 公 路 和 機 場 等 重 大 基 礎 設 施 建 設 。
四 . 加 快 醫 療 衛 生 、 文 化 教 育 事 業 發 展 。
五 . 加 強 生 態 環 境 建 設 。
六 . 加 快 自 主 創 新 和 結 構 調 整 。 支 持 高 技 術 產 業 化 建 設 和 產 業 技 術 進 步 , 支 持 服 務 業 發 展 。
七 . 加 快 地 震 災 區 災 後 重 建 各 項 工 作 。
八 . 提 高 城 鄉 居 民 收 入 。 提 高 明 年 糧 食 最 低 收 購 價 格 , 增 加 農 民 收 入 。 提 高 低 收 入 群 體 等 社 保 對 象 待 遇 水 準 。
九 . 在 全 國 所 有 地 區 、 所 有 行 業 全 面 實 施 增 值 稅 轉 型 改 革 , 鼓 勵 企 業 技 術 改 造 , 減 輕 企 業 負 擔 1,200 億 元 。
十 . 加 大 金 融 對 經 濟 增 長 的 支 持 力 度 。 取 消 對 商 業 銀 行 的 信 貸 規 模 限 制 , 合 理 擴 大 信 貸 規 模 。

初 步 計 算 , 實 施 上 述 工 程 , 至 2010 年 底 約 需 投 資 4 萬 億 元 。


But I don't know...

Need much much more details. This is even worse than the TARP plan from the US Congress and Paulson in its lack of details.

I mean... how the hell did they come up with 4 trillion?
Some sort of magic number?
Where is the money going to come from?
Is it all Central Government?
Will it come from the provincial government and create the problem of unfunded mandates?
Will it be 'committed' from companies, and no real hard cash hitting the road?

But at least the Chinese government is now throwing everything they got at the problem and no more that wishy washy 一保一控 thing that they had going.

See how the market reacts tommorrow. If H shares and A shares fail to respond positvely, we are in for a long November that will resemble October in its negativity. At least back in October, we had 中央 to pray to for rain...

點解反對「救市」措施

噚日,孫柏文有份創立嘅自由市場智庫組織獅子山學會,舉辦咗個關於呢場金融海嘯嘅研討會。發言人係學會主席Bill Stacey。

如果你以為喺金融海嘯下,獅子山學會會支持對上12個月嘅連串「救市」措施,咁我可以好肯定你係個同一時間都覺得克魯明好英明神武嘅硬膠。

研討會度主席就「救市」措施逐單逐單咁分析,解釋點解越救越大鑊。今日,我想集中講Stacey對嗰個10月份8000億美元「買垃圾資產」方案,引發出嚟嘅後果睇法。

買垃圾方案幫倒忙


佢話:「現在其中一個令信貸系統停頓最重要原因,就係金融體制內嘅破產、清盤程序已經近乎完全崩潰。銀行應該像其他行業一樣,一旦資不抵債要清盤,手上資產應該盡快賣出,等股東、債主有個了斷。死嘅就死,幸存活下來嘅就可以好好活下去。

其實,喺 8000億『買垃圾』方案推出之前,銀行已將有還款問題嘅貸款,賣畀啲追數好叻嘅人。雖然銀行輸錢,但起碼有個了斷。美林就係咁,所以可毋須政府介入,善價沽咗自己。

點知,一推出『買垃圾』方案,所有銀行即刻停止出售問題貸款,個個都知政府出價一定高過市價,因為如果出市價根本毋須要政府介入。最後令所有銀行運作停頓,即係包括停止放款,個個等各地政府嘅下一步。

鼓勵銀行等人救


如果我只能作一項建議,就肯定係政府要即時發出唔會再干預金融機構生死嘅強烈訊號,之後確保清盤程序有效率咁運作。私人機構手中有大把錢同方法,去重新撻番着信貸系統,不過佢哋一日要驚自己唔知政府會做啲乜,一日都唔會出手。」

大家明白點解獅子山學會堅決反對政府出手干預啦,因為最終越救越死。

Saturday, November 08, 2008

如果花旗國仲有法治...

相信大家都想知,聯儲局因為要放水卑D銀行,收番來嘅抵押品究竟係乜豬屎垃圾...

希望喺 Bloomberg 番工嘅行家,可以迫聯儲局講...

Bloomberg Sues Fed to Force Disclosure of Collateral (Update1)

By Mark Pittman

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg News asked a U.S. court today to force the Federal Reserve to disclose securities the central bank is accepting on behalf of American taxpayers as collateral for $1.5 trillion of loans to banks.

The lawsuit is based on the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, which requires federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and the public, according to the complaint. The suit, filed in New York, doesn't seek money damages.

``The American taxpayer is entitled to know the risks, costs and methodology associated with the unprecedented government bailout of the U.S. financial industry,'' said Matthew Winkler, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, a unit of New York-based Bloomberg LP, in an e-mail.

The Fed has lent $1.5 trillion to banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., through programs such as its discount window, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility. Collateral is an asset pledged to a lender in the event that a loan payment isn't made.

The Fed made the loans under 11 programs in response to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The total doesn't include an additional $700 billion approved by Congress in a bailout package.

Fed's Position

Bloomberg News on May 21 asked the Fed to provide data on the collateral posted between April 4 and May 20. The central bank said on June 19 that it needed until July 3 to search out the documents and determine whether it would make them public. Bloomberg never received a formal response that would enable it to file an appeal. On Oct. 25, Bloomberg filed another request and has yet to receive a reply.

The Fed staff planned to recommend that Bloomberg's request be denied under an exemption protecting ``confidential commercial information,'' according to Alison Thro, the Fed's FOIA Service Center senior counsel. The Fed in Washington has about 30 pages pertaining to the request, Thro said today before the filing of the suit. The bulk of the documents Bloomberg sought are at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which she said isn't subject to the freedom of information law.

``This type of information is considered highly sensitive, and it would remain so for some time in the future,'' Thro said.

The Fed didn't give Bloomberg a formal response because ``it got caught in the vortex of the things going on here,'' said Michael O'Rourke, another member of the Fed's FOIA staff.

Thro declined to comment on the lawsuit.

The case is Bloomberg LP v. Federal Reserve, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).


究竟聯儲局係咪政府一部份?We are about to find out...

Whats going on here?

Ok, time for me to tap into collective wisdom.

Whats going on here?

謝旭人突從秘魯返回
2008年 11月 08日 00:00 中國窗


【商報訊】據APEC會議主辦方人員昨天透露,在秘魯舉辦的APEC財政部長會議開始之前,中國財政部長謝旭人就離開了秘魯,因為此前北京要求他回國幫助解決國內問題。

據主辦方相關負責人表示,謝旭人在11月5日上午11:00抵達秘魯特魯希略不久后就離開了,此次會議本周在特魯希略召開。「他們告訴他必須解決一項經濟問題,并說他是唯一能勝任的人,」該負責人表示。「他當時在抱怨,因為他坐了32個小時的飛機剛到這兒,然后又不得不馬上坐32小時的飛機趕回去。」

中國財政部兩位不願透露姓名的人員表示,謝旭人已經抵達北京處理一些緊急事務。另據來自北京的消息,謝旭人昨天下午參加了財政部黨組會議。


Speculation is rife.

He flew 32 hours over there and immediately flew 32 hours back.

Why?

Certainly not for the frequent flyer miles I am sure.

Friday, November 07, 2008

英女皇好野!

Sometimes you wonder... when a person does not need to go to the supermarket, get stuck in a traffic jam, or wonder about how to put bread on the table in 10 years time, how they would react to the current financial crisis.

Here's to the Queen of England.

Queen baffled at delay in spotting credit crunch

Queen Elizabeth has been given an academic briefing on the origins of the credit crunch and wound up the "lesson" by asking why nobody had seen the crisis coming.

The 82-year-old monarch had the complexities of the current global financial crisis explained to her during the inauguration of a new building at the renowned London School of Economics (LSE).

The origins and effects of the crisis were explained to her by Professor Luis Garicano, director of research at the LSE's management department, the Press Association reported.

Prof Garicano said afterwards: "The Queen asked me: 'If these things were so large, how come everyone missed them? Why did nobody notice it'?"

When Garicano explained that at "every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing", she commented: "Awful."

Thursday, November 06, 2008

千禧選舉翻版?股民自危

「咩話?仲未有新總統?搞咩呀?」記得當年千禧年11月大選日,孫柏文喺花旗國。嗰晚,一見到Fox News Channel話布殊贏咗佛羅里達州之後,就走去瞓覺,諗住事件已塵埃落定。

不過第二朝起身,已經見到我個十年唔睇新聞台嘅同房,開着個電視睇新聞台,仲要係目瞪口呆咁睇。我問佢點解咁神心,佢解釋之後,我就忍唔住咁講咗以上嘅說話。

票站調查信唔過


其實,根據以前民意調查嘅準確度,奧巴馬應該成為下一任花旗國總統。不過如果未來嘅歷史學家,要為2008年用幾個字做總結,一定會將今年形容為「往績不能預測未來」嘅一年。債券市場嗰啲信貸評級錯晒,可能選舉嘅民意調查都係咁。

噚日,已聽到有人話如果禮拜三,花旗國只要能順利選出新總統,只要冇波折,港股已能升。不過作為一個惟恐天下不亂,驚冇新聞嘅傳媒工作者,其實真係有少少想嚟個2000年翻版。

一旦出事股市冧

多唔好講,選舉日做嘅票站調查,應該會學特區選舉咁,錯得好離譜。點解?因為奧巴馬嘅支持者非常熱情,一定大大聲話投咗畀佢,麥凱恩嗰啲就會比較低調。結果可能令票站調查話奧巴馬按韁輕勝,令全世界一早就有迎接黑人總統嘅預期,點知一點票就……

不過,對最唔鍾意不明朗因素嘅全球股市來講,喺信貸危機當中,如果投票率破晒紀錄嘅話,分分鐘會出現好多票站問題。一旦票數接近,官司就會滿天飛。如果你驚有咁嘅情況,好彩今日特區開市時,花旗國仲有地方未投完票──即係仲有機會做買賣保護自己。

今日出唔到新花旗總統,個個股民自危。

---------------------------------


A clear cut election.

I like everyone else, awaits Obama's next move.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Alternative news for the day

As today is election day in America, and coverage will be wall to wall...

Here is an alternative news.

Chastity Belt for Women?

Feminists around the world have reacted with horror to a new line of lingerie that comes equipped with a GPS tracking system.

The 'find me if you can' range of underwear has been described as a modern-day, high-tech chastity belt.

'It is outrageous to think that men can buy this, programme it and give it to their partners and then monitor them,' said Claudia Burghart, leader of a Berlin feminist group.


See my take is this...

Women are highly aware of things happening around them (sometimes seems to be aware of things NOT happening around them, but I digress...) Therefore such a GPS device will back fire on those who wishes to deploy it.

Remember data and models that are unreliable are WORSE than having no data or models at all.

But! Women can easily deploy this GPS system on a man. Most man have no idea what is being used on them. A GPS chip in the boxers or briefs. Perhaps even a card like device hidden in a lai see, given to a man and insisted to be carried around at all times. Will be carried around at all times.

Viola. 24/7 location tracking.

Ummm... Now thats one application waiting for cost come down, marketed through word of mouth AND sold in women only tupperware party.

But if one thinks all these men tracking women and women tracking men to be a little... Orwellian...

How about this... 24/7 tracking of kids by parents.

Yes... Parents with Children. The Final Utopia of Big Brother.

Monday, November 03, 2008

滙豐一日升數倍?

孫柏文喺花旗國時,曾經擁有過一架保時捷。雖然係架88年嘅924S,不過到我買嘅時候,已經係千禧年初。仲因為架車一路都係喺啲冬天要灑鹽嘅地方行走,所以到我手上時,真係生銹生到千瘡百孔。最後因為當年嘅924S,內裏機件係同大眾汽車嘅Audi一齊研發,所以經常被朋友問:「你架深圳的士Jetta點?」

點都好,部車好爽。

保時捷撼贏淡友

不過,保時捷同大眾汽車多年嚟真係有好多轇轕。大眾汽車嘅甲蟲,就係保時捷先生幫大眾打工時設計。之後自立門戶設計出嚟嘅911,就係用同一理念,所以甲蟲同911嘅DNA出自同一個人。

其實,今時今日關於保時捷嘅熱門問題,有兩個。

第一條問題就係,啲洗腳唔抹腳、就嚟被裁員嘅後生投資銀行家,幾時恐慌性拋售佢哋呢幾年買落嘅保時捷?製造機會畀啲平民百姓買。

第二條問題就係,買保時捷嘅車好?定係買保時捷公司嘅股票仲好?相信大家都聽過,上個禮拜保時捷進行過史無前例嘅挾淡友活動。佢哋運用衍生工具,理論上增持大眾汽車嘅股權,令街貨量跌到得5%。淡友拋空超過10%,個個即刻要購回,股價暴升數倍。賬面上,保時捷當然大贏。

托市要識揀地頭

不過餘波未了。原來,大眾佔有德國股市非常大比重,佔德國DAX指數比重超過20%。

咁樣被人舞高弄低,指數公司同監管機構都冇晒面,話要人為地限制大眾嘅指數比重。保時捷嘅反應:「打淡友喎!」

可惜保時捷唔係喺特區咁做,特首曾蔭權不知會幾開心。試諗吓,如果滙豐(005)一日之內升數倍?

Wasn't spun by Drudge...



ho ho ho

It wasn't drudge and his headline (used this screen cap because Drudge is the master of holding attention) that convinced me of McCain's comeback...

It was an higher power.

But a little disclosure...

Been a visitor to Drudge since Lewinsky and always have kept an ear on what Dick Morris had to say about the state of electoral politics in the US.

I am after all, a child of the Clintonian Age.

I will say this about Drudge, he has no slant one way or the other. His greatest strength is his ability to filter for visitors things of interest. I work in the media, ratings is a great motivator.

I am very sure, if G W Bush had an interesting experience with a White House intern, it will be on drudge... with a siren flashing of course.

And as for Morris, as a media type lusting for stories myself, my darker side sure hopes his prediction of a possible replay of 2000 comes true.

ho ho ho

Saturday, November 01, 2008

To Obama fan 屎



McCain 個勢好強...

所有諗住 Obama 贏硬嘅朋友,支香檳唔好咁快開住...

Joe the Plumber 帶出 Obama 想玩財富要均分嘅 message... 睇落有效...

天下嘅社區幹事,一樣黑?

Friday, October 31, 2008

彈得太急咁就彈完?

事有蹺蹊。前晚,花旗國道指臨收市前十幾分鐘,由升三百幾點突然快速下跌,收市不但升勢不保,仲要埋單跌74點。前日同大家講過我哋嘅鎮報數據之寶「蘋果散戶指數」,亦提示大家個散戶指數喺舊年十月開始嘅跌浪中,第一次呈現入市訊號。

所以我禮拜三就話,如果「今次冇唔同」就可以入市,因為呢個升浪應該會幾勁。

今次純粹「死貓彈」

不過大家要知道,成個一年長熊市嘅低位──恒指10676點嚟計(即係啱啱禮拜一嘅低位)。喺短短嘅3日,恒指已經反彈超過34%。34%喎!

不過因為反彈速度實在太急,我絕對相信呢個純粹屬於「死貓彈」。即係喺國金二期嘅天台拋隻貓落街,都會彈番上十幾廿樓。不過彈完就……

大家可能會問:「你哋個『蘋果散戶指數』唔係好勁o架咩?又話會升?」我想提醒大家,喺「蘋果散戶指數」歷史當中,入市訊號最強嘅一次,係九一一恐怖襲擊之後嘅禮拜。

相信大家都記得,嗰次熊市最終要到03年先至跌完,但如果你有跟住散戶指數買,同埋識得彈到咁上吓落車,係可以贏幾十個百分點。

其實,好多人將呢個拆倉潮嘅源頭,歸咎啲對冲基金。雖然我話唔只佢哋要減低借錢槓桿率,全世界都要。不過,好多人話對冲基金要減低槓桿率嘅最佳理由,係因為投資者要贖回,呢個結論我就有異議。

拆倉潮源頭在投行


我覺得,對冲基金要減低槓桿率嘅最大理由,就係一路以嚟,借子彈畀佢哋掃射嘅最大「軍火供應商」,即係嗰啲投資銀行。相信大家都知道,美林、貝爾斯登被商業銀行吞咗,而大魔、高盛為咗可以被政府接濟,都攞咗商業銀行牌照,投資銀行家變成bank teller。

當投行變商行,最大嘅分別係乜?

如果你話係「公司文化」,我只可派舊膠畀你,仲要係硬嘅。

投行同商行最大嘅分別,除咗啲投行女職員索好多之外(恒生銀行例外),就係手上資金去經營嘅槓桿比率。投行可以做到二、三十倍,商行最多得12倍。所以投行一變商行,就要瘋狂call loan。

今浪非理性拋售,可能又係條例、官僚作怪。

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

買得

前日禮拜一,孫柏文話過股市就快見底,不過就叫大家唔好咁快入滙豐(005)。嗰日滙豐就跌14.7%;不過到噚日就已經彈番上去,事件發生嘅速度,快到要用twitter SMS去個網上日誌blog到。

博撈底有指數可跟

點都好,有啲錢真係好難搵,撈底絕對係嗰啲膽大包天、身手不凡嘅人先做得到。不但要唔怕接由高空跌落嚟嘅大菜刀,仲要身手好到接嘅時候,可以捉到個刀柄。不過我覺得,前日七十幾蚊買到滙豐嘅朋友,都要驚埋呢幾日,先至可以舒口氣。

其實,有一個非常重要嘅指數數據,已顯示今個禮拜可入市。呢個指數唔係啲外國嘢,係個百分之百陀地指數,而更重要係根據呢個指數做買賣,贏錢準繩度相當高。

乜嘢指數咁巴閉?咪就係我哋《蘋果日報》嘅「蘋果散戶指數」。

呢個指數係一個典型外國人好鍾意做嘅投資者意向指數(Investor's sentiment indicator),而幅度就會由最樂觀正面(+50),至最悲觀負面(-50)。

一般而言,呢啲投資者意向指數嘅運用方法,都係屬於「反方向」(Contrarian)投資哲學派別。即係「人人睇淡,就入貨;人人睇好,就出貨。」

由98年開始,我哋每個周末做抽樣電話調查,跟住禮拜一公佈。咁多年嚟,散戶最悲觀嘅一次調查,就係喺九一一恐怖襲擊之後嗰次,指數達到(-30.9)。我細心翻查紀錄之後,原來只要指數每次跌穿(-17),跟住你去買升,一個月後就有錢贏。

按往績贏錢機會高

自從04年之後,呢4年嚟「蘋果散戶指數」都未試過跌穿(-17)。直至上個禮拜。如果大家有留意禮拜一嘅《蘋果日報》財經版,就會發現「蘋果散戶指數」係(-19)。根據歷史,即係買得。

啲人話做投資,最危險嘅4個字係「今次唔同 This time is different」。如果你跟咗「蘋果散戶指數」做買賣,就希望今次同以前冇唔同。

--------------------------

Extended reading...

蘋果散戶指數 explained

Here's a chart. Up till April 2006

宣揚中華廚藝...




呢D就係努力宣揚中華廚藝嘅後果...
大驚小怪嘅鬼佬電子傳媒報導
Restaurant closed after dead deer found in kitchen
Oct 27 09:04 PM US/Eastern

HAMBURG, N.Y. (AP) - Health officials shut down a suburban Buffalo restaurant after an inspector found employees butchering a dead deer inside the business. Erie County Health Department officials said they got a tip Friday about a dead deer in the China King restaurant in the town of Hamburg, just south of Buffalo.

An inspector soon arrived and saw the deer being butchered in the kitchen.

State health laws prohibit butchering an animal inside a restaurant.

Officials don't know whether the deer had been killed by a hunter or a vehicle. They said there was no indication the deer meat was served to any customers.

The message on the restaurant's answering machine Monday says it was closed because of "family emergencies."

Monday, October 27, 2008

滙豐卒之買得?

上個禮拜五,孫柏文卒之感受得到啲「大行」分析員嘅說話,對市場、股價影響力比自己強些少。大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎,應該記得我曾建議過「一注獨沽賣滙豐」。

建議當日,即係舊年7月30日,滙豐賣140港元一股。我話過滙豐一定要對手上、當時估值500億美元嘅次按債券,價值上要重新評估,咁做對公司股價一定有壓力。亦提供當時被鬧到狗血淋頭,之後睇番尚算保守嘅目標價 112.5港元一股。不過嗰日滙豐股價升。

我記得次按風暴一路打落去時,有好多我識嘅滙豐股東,同我講到滙豐時,就算我如何用數據分析,佢哋最後都會重複又重複咁同自己講,我之後形容為滙豐股東嘅護身咒語──「滙豐派息高!」

舊年12月12日,我又寫過一篇「滙豐取消派息?」嘅文章。話滙豐為保手上資金,可能要學當時宣佈取消派息嘅UBS。不過嗰日滙豐股價冇乜點郁。上個禮拜五,啲分析員走出嚟話:「滙豐對於手上現在估值為300億美元嘅次按債券,實在係太樂觀,要大幅貶值。不過如果貶值至到較為合理水平,滙豐嘅資本就會降至同其他要英國政府注入資金嘅銀行一樣。派息自然凍過水,減一半。」

就係咁,特區股市嗰堵「跌穿一百蚊,我就會買!」嘅滙豐股價血肉城牆,一擊即破。亦令我今個周末最常聽到嘅問題就係:「滙豐到沙士價,買得未?」

等埋禮拜三至扑槌


我嘅答案係:「等多兩日,禮拜三決定。」

對冲基金贖回潮雖然就快完,不過未完。上個禮拜五,CNBC訪問UBS嘅Art Cashin,佢話股市跌勢應該喺呢幾日內有個了斷,但究竟呢個「了斷」係咩樣,佢就話唔知。對上一次Art Cashin咁講,喺02年花旗國股市見底之前嗰個禮拜。

想買嘅人,不如等埋呢幾日。

So close to buying time...

As a perma bear... It feels weird when there is a whole lot of people more pessimistic than I.

Really strange.

But let this dramatic ending occur.

Lets be ready.

R.I.P. HK Krispy Kreme

我喺美國嘅時候係好鍾意食Krispy Kreme...

不過番香港之後,都冇去幫襯過...

點解?廢Q事食左之後又上癮 hahahahahah

點都好... RIP HK Krispy Kreme

Krispy Kreme 清 盤
5 分 店 即 時 執 笠


Krispy Kreme 甜 圈 公 司 宣 佈 清 盤 。

清 盤 潮 不 絕 ! 在 香 港 開 業 約 2 年 、 擁 有 7 間 分 店 的 美 國 甜 圈 店 Krispy Kreme 宣 佈 清 盤 , 位 於 銅 鑼 灣 、 旺 角 、 中 環 、 觀 塘 及 元 朗 的 分 店 暫 時 結 業 。

至 於 位 於 其 餘 兩 間 設 於 香 港 國 際 機 場 的 分 店 , 則 營 業 至 另 行 通 知 為 止 , 有 消 息 指 , 機 場 分 店 將 會 在 兩 星 期 後 結 業 。

有 員 工 透 露 , 7 間 分 店 的 負 責 人 , 下 午 將 會 商 討 對 策 。

該 公 司 表 示 , 近 月 曾 為 公 司 尋 找 買 家 , 但 未 能 成 功 , 決 定 清 盤 。 發 言 人 指 出 , 在 香 港 經 營 生 意 成 本 高 , 難 以 應 付 。

董 事 對 要 作 出 清 盤 決 定 感 到 非 常 失 望 , 但 為 免 僱 員 及 債 權 人 蒙 受 更 大 損 失 , 決 定 結 業 。

Krispy Kreme 已 委 任 獨 立 財 務 顧 問 , 在 下 月 12 日 舉 行 債 權 人 會 議 , 以 便 決 定 如 何 處 理 公 司 資 產 及 僱 員 與 債 權 人 的 申 索 事 宜 。


其實,我以前都有炒過呢間公司嘅股票... 上市時簡直係神話股...

不過盈利增長一因過份開舖而放慢,就會即刻卑人係咁拋售...

Saturday, October 25, 2008

見到標普 差佬會賴尿

噚日凌晨時分,孫柏文睇電視睇到怒火衝天,忍唔住咁寄咗封電郵畀班寫嘢嘅兄弟姊妹。電郵中得一句,就係:「聽日我去報警!」

究竟睇到啲乜,令我火屎都嚟埋?就係花旗國電視台,不斷報道花旗國國會開聽證會,調查信貸評級公司呢幾年啲累死全世界嘅信貸評級。其中講到啲信貸評級公司,究竟憑乜嘢機制定出評級時,啲國會議員就公開咗標準普爾裏面,兩名員工嘅短訊對答。

員工甲:「講真,我哋為呢批產品出嘅評級簡直離譜。」
員工乙:「我知。條方程式連一半風險都冇包括在內。」
員工甲:「我哋根本唔應該為呢批產品出評級。」
員工乙:「乜嘢狗屎垃圾攞嚟,我哋都會為佢哋評級,來者不拒。就連係一頭黃牛出嘅結構產品,我哋都會評評級。」
員工甲:「呢單生意風險好高咁。我作為負責小組成員,對於批准呢個評級真係唔舒服。」

以上就係佢哋不誠實搵笨嘅鐵證!

以前細個同老竇去跑馬,有次佢隻馬出賽,佢睇完晨操後同個練馬師講:「隻馬狀態好,評分又着數,今次贏得喎。」但練馬師就話隻馬未得,所以老竇連馬場都冇入,得番孫媽媽、我家姐同我。

點知隻馬一出閘由頭放到尾,仲要獨贏賠率三十幾倍咁贏。佢走去同個練馬師講:「You are either incompetent or a crook(一係你無能一係你奸)。」

表面證供足入罪

今次,標普已證明佢哋唔係無能。講真,差佬嗰個商業罪案調查科呢排已經好勁,將之前有份發放「明星生活照」,繼而被揭發申請信用卡填錯表嘅鍾亦天搞掂咗。

呢啲魚毛蝦毛都拉得咁起勁,仲唔去標普拉人?唔夠錢,唔夠資源咪去立法會問涂謹申攞!佢呢個電車男乜嘢器材都批o架。

事實1:標普使用電腦計算信貸評級。
事實2:標普不誠實咁計算信貸評級。
事實3:標普不誠實使用電腦。

不過,睇怕商罪科黃福全都冇膽,唔好話拉人,連標普office棟大廈個門都唔敢入。

如果差佬敢拉不誠實使用電腦嘅標普人,孫柏文就去尖東跳海!仲要游去香港島!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Good job my boy!



Congratulations to Martin Oei!

2008 Standard & Poor = 2002 Arthur Andersen

Smoking gun time... From the New York Times...

Devan Sharma, president of S&P, said in a written statement, “It is by now clear that a number of the assumptions we used in preparing our ratings on mortgage-backed securities issued between the last quarter of 2005 and the middle of 2007 did not work.”

John A. Yarmuth, a Democrat from Kentucky, chose to read aloud from an instant-message conversation between two S&P employees in the firm’s structured product division.

Official 1: By the way, that deal is ridiculous

Official 2: I know, right. The model definitely doesn't capture half the risk.


Official 1: We should not be rating it

Official 2: We rate every deal. It could be structured by cows and we would rate it


Official 1: There is a lot of risk associated with it. I personally don’t feel comfy signing off as a committee member.


It is time for us, the good people in the media to ask. Why the fuck is the Hong Kong govt still taking rating from these jokers seriously.

And why are they making us take these rating up the arse, through our MPF (page 4)(中文版)?





係時候兜口兜面問曾蔭權、曾俊華、(and my current favourite)迫金局主席范鴻齡,點解要我地D錢卑 S&P 出嘅 rating 強姦?

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

中信泰富 澳元概念股?

原本今日孫柏文睇到,對於中大學生報因為刊登之前被評為不雅嘅文章,被高等法院法官裁定為冇犯法,心情幾好。仲要聽到有評論員分析法官判詞之後話:「即係法官叫中大學生報,你哋毋須要再攞嗰期嘅報紙畀嗰班低B仔淫審處再次審淫。淫審處、淫審條例,通通都係廢。」

低回報投資都出事

講真,我都等緊其他因為低B仔淫審處製造出來嘅不公義,被推翻。我今日大聲哭訴:「幾時推翻Kelly Brook事件?幾時停止選擇性行刑?幾時結束對報業嘅白色恐怖?」

不過,就算有片刻心情幾好,一睇番關於中信泰富(267)輸大錢嘅新聞,就會即時沮喪。中信泰富為嗰少少回報輸大錢,仲上埋報紙頭條,大字標題話「中信泰富、炒燶外滙、勁蝕155億」。

大家要記得,中信泰富喺停牌宣佈呢段消息前,公司總市值都係三百幾億。所以噚日,中信泰富股價咁就冇咗一半,都不足為奇。

一個最多只得幾個百分點回報嘅投資項目,根據民主黨甘乃威等硬膠立法會議員,應該屬於「好安全」、「好穩陣」嘅投資,最後要輸大錢冇理由係買家錯!
所以強烈呼籲,中信泰富主席榮智健即刻去搵甘乃威登記,記得冇理由係買家錯!
講真,甘乃威都買咗某家銀行嘅衍生工具,如果輸錢,甘乃威一定話冇理由係買家錯!

世上只有媽媽好

其實中信泰富出事,我先至領略到今時今日特區中,最睇死聯儲局伯南克為首嘅「美元紙幣狂魔集團」,唔係特區裏面嘅白銀戰隊成員,而係中信泰富。有國家國務院支持都係咁,真係冇嘢好講。

不過有樣嘢我真係想知,究竟中信泰富以前靠呢啲accumulator衍生工具贏幾多次、幾多錢,個心先至咁雄,去做最後呢次蝕155億嘅交易?

最後想唱一句:「世上只有媽媽好……有媽的孩子像個寶……」

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Yahoo 廣告的幽默感...

中信泰富 (0267) 今日 so far 股價走勢圖...
有如一個死人的心電圖...






Yahoo 廣告部,即刻 send 架救護車卑佢...

Monday, October 20, 2008

四級投資者 你係邊級?

相信大家同孫柏文一樣,都聽過啲做嘢歷久冇事嘅人講過:「呢個世界做乜嘢都好,最危險就係識啲唔識啲。識嘅嘢得半桶水走去做,遲早出事。」呢個簡單智慧,當然適用於投資之上。

不過,除咗以上「唔好半桶水」之外,由我細細個鍾意睇跑馬開始,早已聽過冠軍練馬師、馬評家董驃叔叔講過:「馬場專收叻仔。」如果我冇解讀錯,即係如果你叻得滯,始終會有一日出事。呢個見解我覺得連股票市場都啱用。

其實,除咗以上兩個級別嘅投資者,仲可以加多兩級,變成有系統嘅《金手指》四級投資者分級制。

最低級就係「唔識」,之後就係「半桶水」,跟住就有「識」,最後亦係最高級嘅有「叻仔」。

用之前雷曼迷債做例子。

最低級例如孫媽媽呢類「唔識」嘅投資者,不單止唔識乜嘢係迷債,仲要知道自己唔識,點sell畀佢都唔會買。所以喺雷曼迷債事件中冇事。

「叻仔」級輸身家

跟住就有啲「半桶水」投資者,聽到有啲乜嘢信貸評級公司,話呢啲迷債嘅評級好高、好穩陣,就將自己一大部份嘅身家買落去。結果雷曼執笠,迷債出事,政客登記,上街示威。

嗰班「識」嘅投資者,當然好似啲「半桶水」投資者咁,聽過信貸評級公司畀嘅評級。但佢哋就係因為識,知道呢幾年啲評級漸出問題,又聽過雷曼可能有事,所以當銀行職員sell啲迷債時,佢哋只要反問番幾個關於迷債嘅技術性問題,令啲銀行職員覺得:「都係搵番啲半桶水投資者算數。」就可以成功擊退啲職員,逃過一劫。

相信大家都會問:「咁啲『叻仔』級投資者呢?」叫得做「叻仔」,就當然聽過雷曼可能有事,又一早唔信啲信貸評級。不過同佢講雷曼有事,佢就會話:「有事?聯儲局、伯南克都會救啦!系統性風險呀!就係因為有好多人睇唔到呢個政策點,所以迷債需求一定被壓低,回報同值博率一定高!」之後,仲因為銀行貸款利息成本,比迷債嘅回報少,叻仔就有咁多借咁多,樓都押埋,諗住嚟次利息套戥。最後雷曼執笠,輸身家。

咁你又係邊級投資者?

Just a reminder on Lehman's CDS settlement

Remember how the auction to determine the payout on CDS that protects one against Lehman's default?

And it was determined that Lehman's debt worth was 9 cents on the dollar?

Therefore the payout has to be 91% of Lehman's debt?

The estimated payout is US$250b+...

Well. The auction was held that day. But pay out is tmr. 21st of October.

Lets see whose going to pay up... And whose not.

Here's an interesting piece over at Roubini's site about this pay out tmr.

Will they 'net out' so that actual amount passed over is only US$6b... Or will counterparties fail leading to another cascade of credit crisis?

I will say this. Buying puts @ 3:57pm tmr sounds tempting. Just to punt on counter party failures...

But if on Wednesday morning, no counterparty went to finance heaven, I am buying calls and holding on to them till the US presidential election.

And yes, I will also add to my silver positions too.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Pitiful...



As the Hedge Funds unwind. Things get whacked.

A lot of European hedge funds bought silver. And a lot of them were based in London.

Supposedly this is happening (from naked capitalism)...

The US had huge problems with broker-dealers in the 1930s...Enter the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This is one piece of depression era legislation that survives and thank the Good Lord for that.

What the broker dealer act does is (a) ring fence the US broker dealer and (b) limit the amount that the broker dealer can borrow against your securities and the amount of collateral it may take.

I am hardly a lawyer – so take the bush lawyer caveat – but the way it works is that the broker dealer may not borrow against your securities to finance their own business, only client business. So Lehman Brothers US broker dealer could take collateral of securities and if they had 100 million out on client margin loans the most that they could raise using client securities is 100 million and not a brass razoo more. This is really important because it meant that client assets were not used to finance Lehman’s disastrous commercial real estate and other businesses.

Moreover when you deposit a million dollars at the broker dealer and give them the right to repledge those securities they can only rehypothecate 140 percent of your outstanding balances...

So (provided the broker is not acting criminally) you should get the bulk of your money back if the broker dealer fails. And provided the capital requirements are adequate (and they mostly are) the broker dealer won’t fail. Even the Drexel Burnham Broker Dealer did not fail....

The result. Whilst Lehman brothers went bust Lehman US broker dealer did not. This pretty well saved the US hedge fund industry.

Europe however was a different story. Lehman Europe failed – and the clients of the European broker dealer (read a good proportion of the London hedge fund community) are now queuing as unsecured creditors of Lehman. Many funds have folded. Far more have been nicked. Whilst the US hedge fund business is currently looking dazed, confused and a little problematic the UK business is on life support.

In some sense this is the end of the City of London.


So even if your hedge fund bet on the right things... Because Lehman failed, your hedge fund still got screwed.

Amazing that these hedge funds didn't want their assets ring fenced. I guess it is the same mentality as everyone who trusted Lehman as a counter party (yes, including mini bond holders)...

They all believed "...Lehman Can't fail..."

Friday, October 17, 2008

買佢冇事博倍升

「唔係真係會有事?」記得喺2000年dotcom泡沫爆破時,孫柏文仲喺花旗國,亦有炒股票。當年毋須日日睇住個市,淨係聽吓我啲去咗加州搞高科技嘅舊同學口中嘅消息,都知道有好多間公司會出事。

絕望與希望間搵食

絕大部份時候,舊同學講嘅有問題公司,我都會答:「抵佢啦!都唔知間公司為乜?」

不過,有時聽到喺泡沫最瘋狂時,如日方中嘅公司都會有事,我都會忍唔住話:「唔係真係會有事?」

講真,喺科網泡沫嗰一役,其中一個我見到關於炒賣股票嘅現象,就係當市場對於一間公司能否繼續存在開始出現懷疑態度,股價波動可以好大。因為市場投資者,會不斷喺對公司完全絕望同些少希望間掙扎。

如果能夠捕捉時機,喺市場對公司嘅絕望同希望做炒賣,利潤可以相當豐厚。近期最佳例子,就係啲花旗國銀行股。

今時今日特區股市中,有兩隻股票喺舊年「資金自由行」泡沫中被人進取買入,因為行業同公司都被人感覺係如日方中。呢兩隻股票就係製造紙張產品嘅玖龍紙業(2689)同理文造紙(2314)。

信貸緊張難借新錢


兩間公司嘅股價,舊年最瘋狂時炒到廿幾三十蚊一股。到噚日,得番一兩蚊。能夠解釋股價大幅下滑嘅最直接原因,就係佢哋兩間公司都因為對上幾年喺全球信貸泡沫中,過份借貸。

現在對紙張產品嘅需求將會出現下滑嘅情況下,已經大鑊。最弊,兩間公司都有好多短期債務,當年諗住到期可以借新錢還,今時今日信貸緊張,令投資者唔知嗰兩間公司可以點算好,所以就令到嗰兩間公司嘅股價,跌到我覺得已經反映市場認為佢哋可能會出事。

問題就係,兩間公司同時有事?唔係冇可能。不過以現在股價水平,可以小注怡情咁博博──博佢哋有人救。

當然如果喺兩間中揀,就要問問自己邊間被打救,對「救生員」嘅成本低啲。就係喺咁嘅時候,大陸政府先至可建立順我者昌嘅形象。玖紙主席張茵為國家政策勞動法,曾經組織反對勢力。你話點搞?

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Follow up on 理文造紙 (2314)

Ok.

理文造紙 (2314) came out after the market closed and said that they are selling a subsidiary for HK$200 mil.

The reason I bought today was because I knew yesterday night that they called a press conference for today at 5:00pm, "to talk about on going operations"

Which coming right after their credit downgrade, I predicted would be about solving their liquidity issues.

So with this sale to raise money, see how the market will react on Monday.

Hopefully some will price in the fact that this is the first sale. More sales will come and they might not price in bankruptcy for the company.

Donald Tsang vs. Joe Yam

It looks like a real nasty fight is brewing between the HKMA and the HKSAR Govt.

It is as if GW Bush is going to battle against Ben Bernanke...

umm...

A lot of colourful details about the conflict between HKMA CEO Yam and HKSAR CE Tsang emerging. All stemming from the political backlash and counter backlash of the Lehman 'Mini Bond' affair.

Anyhow, as Tsang forces banks to repay part of what investors lost on Lehman, Yam is behind the banks. Yam is encouraging the banks to repeat the two finest words the British Empire gave to its colonies - "Fuck Off".

So Tsang is saying, "Everyone gets old, even Yam" implying Yam should follow the terms of his contract and leave next year.

And Yam returns with a piece on his blog about the risk and Moral Hazard with the government's 100% guarantee (last paragraph) on all HK deposits. And staying ever so on message with the labeling of "temporary", as if a taunt to the govt implying that the guarantee will be anything but temporary.

Wow. intra govt struggle with our banking system at stake.

Shit.

Just bought stock at 3:55pm

Just bought 理文造紙 (2314) @ HK$2.18

理文 and 玖龍 (2689) are both priced for bankruptcy. Where they cannot roll over their loans.

Now... I am not surprised if they are completely screwed. But hard to accept that not even one will survive (through divine/govt/states-bank/private-equity intervention)...

And as a betting man, I won't take a punt on 玖龍, whose CEO publicly opposed 勞動法 the Labour Law in China late last year.

So... 理文 remains. Also it has a press conference today at 500pm. I am sure they will to address their debt/liquidity issue.

If not SELL SELL SELL on Monday hor hor hor

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

快打旋風 II



(hat tip to my good man Roland)














不過黃毓民冇理由咁近都唔中曾特首...
又話「邊個最夠薑」...

又嚟「八萬五」

一班民粹政客,孫柏文唔講邊個黨,大家心照,多年來不斷要求政府落實「市民嘅第一訴求」。雖然個訴求,係會改變對特區非常重要嘅市場結構,不過因為民粹政客追求已久,所以已達「不會理其他因素,係咪都要」嘅地步。

同一時間,政府又冇足夠民意基礎去反對,所以就啓動官僚機器去起草政策,落實訴求。

金融動盪仍難煞車

點知,喺官僚機器完成起草政策,已放入特首施政報告時,國際金融業大動盪。不過因官僚機器有如火車頭,要煞停談何容易,施政報告嘅讀稿已印萬份,唔通逐份用塗改液改咩?

所以就算特首知道,呢個係改變市場結構嘅最壞一刻,後遺症可能一發不可收拾,都要硬着頭皮宣佈落實訴求。

施政報告被逼落墨

之後政策出台,處處碰釘。出事後,政府為咗要全世界知道佢哋仲有管治能力,無寶不落咁繼續推。最後不但害咗全個特區,傷勢最嚴重嘅仲要係當初政策想幫嘅人。

最無賴嘅係,原先嗰班民粹政客,居然當自己冇要過呢個政策。

97年,「樓價高企」、「無殼蝸牛」嘅民粹哭訴不絕。特首董建華喺當年10月嘅施政報告,宣佈八萬五政策。

今年特首曾蔭權,又喺金融海嘯中面對「在職貧窮」、「可恥薪金」等聲音。

未來嘅歷史學家一定會咁話:「08年最低工資,就係97年八萬五。」

Monday, October 13, 2008

仲可以幾大鑊

「世界末日」。

呢幾日,孫柏文從周圍好多人嘅口中,聽到呢四個字。經常聽到人咁講嘅原因,可能因為人以群分、物以類聚,我作為淡友咁耐,身邊都有唔少睇得好淡嘅朋友。不過以21世紀人類科技、醫學昌明、學識智慧,除咗感性唔諗「世界末日」可以發生之外,可唔可以同一時間非常理性地排除呢個可能性?

我作為一個自由市場信徒,「世界末日」呢個概念嘅界定,就不如外判畀人類歷史當中印製得最多嘅書,即係基督教嘅聖經。

金融海嘯可引發饑荒

聖經裏面話過,「世界末日」將會有四位騎士來臨。佢哋代表嘅係瘟疫、戰爭、饑荒同死亡。今日,就同大家分析吓,四環當中之一──饑荒,喺呢個金融海嘯中發生嘅可能性。

全球一體化大家都知,背後其中一個推動一體化嘅動力,就係來自人類將任何產品供應鏈嘅效率,越推越高。

經過發明冷藏科技,更有效嘅運輸系統,變壞機會大幅降低,人類食物就差唔多係最受惠於全球一體化嘅一項產品。

攞特區嚟講,700萬人口食物來自世界不同地方,除有毒奶粉外,價廉物美。不過如果掉轉頭諗,一旦食物嘅供應鏈停頓,我哋呢個700萬人嘅城市,可以捱幾耐?幾耐先會發生暴動?

銀根收緊難以周轉

銀行收緊貸款,大家都知。
試諗吓因為零售店相繼結業,銀行將食物商店同超級市場嘅信用額取消,佢哋要問批發商借貨。
批發商嘅信用額同時一樣被取消,入唔到貨。
運輸公司被拖數,亦因為信用額冇咗,連車隊入油嘅錢都冇。
油站東主被運輸公司拖數,連油站油缸都空空如也。

大家可能會問:「不過以上只係本地問題,貨可以到港,落貨有幾難?」多都唔講,今時今日全球銀行同業拆息不斷推高,原因就係銀行與銀行之間冇晒信任。

相信大家都知道,海上貨運非常依賴Letter of Credit(LC)去運作。Letter of Credit呢個系統要運作,就必須要國際銀行與銀行之間互相信任。一旦銀行互信蒸發,世界各地出入口商之間嘅貿易就會停頓,食物供應鏈都不會例外。

特區政府話會用盡彈藥解決問題,唔通講緊防暴警察?

Sold my calls

Sold my callable bulls on HSI and HSCEI today, just before the noon close.

I really thought they were going to be recalled.

But good thing they didn't reach the trigger point.

Anyhow, sold for 40%+ and 80%+ return.

為歷史留下一個記錄...








Interesting thoughts from 會計仔

會計仔 wrote about the current economic turmoil. Definitely worth a read.

He noted many things in his 筆記... This part is my favourite...

都唔知邊個 PK 發明看金融股只看ROE不看ROA,ROE只是ROA乘一個扛杆


Want to know the PK who invented that? Bankers.

But in a world where no one defaults... who cares about meagre Return on Assets.

If I had $10 capital, and I can borrow $390 to do $400 of business (40x leverage - less than Fannie, Freddie and Deutsche Bank).

My cost of interest is 5%, my return on assets is 6%. Assuming no one defaults or if mortgages, full recovery because of ever rising house prices... My return is 1% of $400... or $4...

$4 profit on $10 capital. Every year.

But even if only 1 year... After the first year, who ever came up with that plan in the bank will already have received a nice big bonus. And bought an apartment in 西九...

Also, everyone reading this blog who is at or was in business school. You can throw whatever you have learnt about securitization out of the window and pretended those classes never happened.

And if possible, it is time schools taught about defaults when teaching banking at all levels... Even Form 4 + 5 level. All I learnt was the credit creation process... And never about bank runs, defaults and wealth destruction.

How will capital be allocated going forward? Well... I have been seeing a lot of HSBC commercial banking ads lately on CNBC.

Friday, October 10, 2008

?!?

Bought Bull today at 3:57pm...

Bought Callable Bull today at 3:57pm on HSCE and HSI.

See how it goes.

Probably be called first thing Monday morning. hor hor hor

世界已食唔落美債

噚日,孫柏文開收音機聽新聞,聽到一段令我非常鼓舞嘅消息。呢段消息就係,有白銀戰隊成員,喺西貢糧船灣進行「反美帝物流活動」,想將一磚磚白銀運上俗稱「大飛」嘅快艇。

點知搬運時,遇到好鍾意拉啲「紙幣狂魔」挑戰者嘅特區差佬。

走私白銀的啓示

可能因為之前,就連上網同人分享個人對銀行信貸健全水平都俾人拉,所以呢啲擺到明反紙幣狂魔嘅白銀戰隊成員,一於好少理。一見差佬,即走。仲要俾佢哋走得甩,因為差佬聲稱事件中「冇人被捕」。

首先唔講佢哋想將啲白銀運去邊,我覺得呢班白銀戰隊物流部嘅戰友,一見水警就走,已經係對呢個盲目挺美元嘅政府一個冇得再賴嘅譴責。一班為咗服務啲諗住自救,所以買白銀來運輸嘅人,都可以一見代表政府嘅公僕,即刻唔要啲白銀,特區金融白色恐怖嘅程度已經去到極點。

仲有,雖然我唔知啲白銀運去邊,不過如果要估,應該就係運返大陸。

當祖國政府之前已宣佈白銀入境唔會收關稅時,呢班人都要走私,即係呢班白銀戰隊成員,或佢哋啲客,就連祖國政府都唔信會尊重產權,唔信會放過啲白銀。

唔信銀行的明證


其實,前日我都聽到話有大戶要求銀行,為佢準備7 位數字嘅美元鈔票,一嚿現金擺喺銀行保險箱。呢個舉動,當然係對銀行制度投不信任票,雖然星展銀行事件已證明,保險箱都唔係百分百安全,不過我都可以明白。因為當全球貨幣政策都係圍繞住美元咁走,而花旗國政府將會排山倒海咁發債,世界已食唔落美債,唔信銀行係可以明白。

不過,如果你連美金現鈔都唔信,要買實貨白銀的話,最好就係買完唔使怕政府。因為一旦見差佬,都唔使唔要。

最後想講就係,噚日政府沒收嘅白銀,我等緊刊憲去買。

Thursday, October 09, 2008

最後一著... 求神來一次 Divine Intervention



全球減息究竟 work 唔 work?

我只可以話,記得 MC HAMMER 既朋友...

"...We need to pray, just to make it today..."


Wednesday, October 08, 2008

救雷曼「苦主」低Q能

呢兩個禮拜,孫柏文睇到「雷曼投資者輸錢事件」嘅事態發展,越睇越火滾。由最初民主黨做show,畀買咗雷曼產品嘅投資者一個集體假希望,到今時今日,政府行政機關高調介入,強迫啲本地銀行硬啃,要令市民覺得政府做緊嘢。

政府明唔明白為咗呢班為數可能上萬嘅人,越「做嘢」就會越罔顧特區銀行體制穩健,越有機會令特區銀行爆發集體擠提潮,最終危害幾百萬個需要穩健銀行體制嘅香港人。孫柏文已經係特區數一數二,政治思維上最心胸廣闊嘅人,不過今日我都要講句:「曾蔭權係政治家?我呸!」

資不抵債隨時執笠

今時今日嘅金融海嘯,係建基於全球債主、存戶唔知道啲銀行手上嘅資產價值。因為唔知道資產價值,一旦被揭發少過負債,就可以即時執笠。不過今次呢個海嘯,起碼知道啲銀行負債有幾多,佢哋要上身負責還嘅數有幾大。

不過如果特區政府行政機關,成功令市民覺得佢哋有能力,強迫啲本地銀行為咗所有之前賣過嘅金融產品上身,本地銀行嘅資產負債表就會突然出現超級問號。多都唔使問,只要有人問政府:「曾特首,本地銀行賣過價值幾多嘅金融產品?本地銀行一旦因為你做嘢,被迫要賠款,究竟仲有冇本地銀行唔係資不抵債?」

當有咁大嘅不明朗因素,所有本地銀行嘅債主、存戶,即時對自己幫襯開嘅銀行出現恐慌。大家都唔使怕師奶提款潮,因為只要有差佬拉啲不誠實使用電腦嘅人,傳媒唔報道,就唔會發生。

恐慌提款潮會再現

不過嗰啲當特區銀行為資金避難所嘅大客戶,就會即時電子提款潮,將資金調去外國。

政府行政機關,背後究竟幫唔幫啲雷曼產品投資者係其次,最緊要係喺全世界嘅目光下,狠狠地宣佈:「為追求更高回報,買任何投資產品自己要負上全部責任。如果覺得被誤導,就唔應該請求立法或行政機關幫手,因為香港有健全反欺騙嘅法例,有事就搵司法制度去爭取公義。」令本地銀行嘅債主、存戶,覺得本地銀行唔上身。

嗰啲好似孫媽媽咁,呢幾年嚟都千辛萬苦用盡方法,向銀行職員嘅推銷說不嘅百萬市民,今日政府幫雷曼產品投資者,簡直就係陷孫媽媽同百萬市民於不義。為自己嘅政治方便,去摧毀銀行體制嘅穩健,呢啲就係負責任嘅領導咩?

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I see people seem to have a reaction upon reading this piece I wrote.

I welcome any thoughts on this matter. Thank you.

Monday, October 06, 2008

未擠提?唔理性!

呢個周末,孫柏文見到歐洲大國啲元首開派對,傾救市。當電視新聞報道佢哋開記者招待會嘅片段時,我當然睇到實。法國、德國、前宗主國嘅話事人通通到齊。不過如果佢哋想達到嘅目標,係想減低銀行業嘅動盪,結果應該會失敗。

點解?因為請少咗個人。我睇電視同埋之後上網,發現冇愛爾蘭首相份,都知今次會議做show多過乜。

政府包底實安全

大家可能會問:「區區一個二百萬人口嘅小國,愛爾蘭嘅首相唔去,so what?孫柏文又膠up。」等我解釋點解。

愛爾蘭政府上個禮拜宣佈,不論幾多,全面保證所有銀行嘅存款。消息一出,歐洲各國其他銀行嘅存款就即刻湧到愛爾蘭,相信下星期繼續。

因為好簡單,如果你係一個喺法國、德國、前宗主國銀行存錢嘅存戶,你信你間銀行定係信一個主權國政府?

相信如果其他歐洲國家政府「唔跟到底」,學愛爾蘭全面保證所有存款,幾日內應該有多間歐洲銀行同時倒閉或被接管。我都唔想有咁嘅分析,不過條數就係咁計。

同樣情況都喺花旗國出現。財長保爾森見到花旗國啲非常低利息、傳統上未輸過存戶錢(因為投資傳統上非常安全嘅資產)、啲人用來代替普通銀行存款、不過唔係傳統被監管嘅銀行,提供啲叫做money market嘅戶口,被人瘋狂擠提。所以9月29日就宣佈完全保證呢啲戶口,為期三個月。

可能因為呢啲money market戶口嘅總存款額,達到34000億美元,所以如果存戶同一時間抽錢走,啲戶口經理人同一時間變賣戶口資產套現,市場會進一步動盪,所以財長出嚟保證係可以理解。

投靠愛爾蘭政府

點知個後果就係,當時只得十萬美元上限保證嘅傳統銀行存款,即刻出現擠提。資金湧入啲 money market戶口,放棄傳統銀行存款。

不過因為係大客,冇人龍,所以冇人講、冇傳媒報道、冇人不誠實使用電腦。

再講,特區銀行存款保證得十萬元,現在冇一個本地銀行嘅債主(當然包括存戶),知道啲本地銀行資產係乜。如果出事特區政府會點反應?所以有理由相信本港大客戶已經投靠愛爾蘭政府或者花旗國 money market戶口。佢哋心諗:「未擠提?唔理性!」

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Final note: This capital flight due to some government's guarantee is now forcing all govts to extend this guarantee.

I wrote the piece above Sunday afternoon. Then on Monday morning, Germany announced it will guarantee all deposits.

Now... I heard Hong Kong Govt will also do so...

I don't know. There is no leadership in Hong Kong government right now. Keep an eye out for Wednesday on Money Cafe. I will be doing a Jim Cramer. I am really pissed off.