不過今次政府撤銷銷售稅，就好似特首曾蔭權，成功拆除喺司長唐英年身上，可以同曾蔭權政權同歸於盡嘅自殺式爆炸裝置。唔知道幾時會到 「A貨學券制」呢？
Monday, December 11, 2006
成功拆除自殺式爆炸裝置 No to GST!
講起政府，我想祝賀所有反對過銷售稅嘅市民、團體，因為今日大家大獲全勝，政府撤銷 銷售稅嘅研究。我以前曾經話過，睇見財政司司長推出銷售稅同埋自由黨嘅反應，就好似一隊球隊嘅後衞俾對方買通，喺禁區瘋狂地犯規，等對方攻擊球員可以有好 多射十二碼嘅機會。
不過今次政府撤銷銷售稅，就好似特首曾蔭權，成功拆除喺司長唐英年身上，可以同曾蔭權政權同歸於盡嘅自殺式爆炸裝置。唔知道幾時會到 「A貨學券制」呢？
不過今次政府撤銷銷售稅，就好似特首曾蔭權，成功拆除喺司長唐英年身上，可以同曾蔭權政權同歸於盡嘅自殺式爆炸裝置。唔知道幾時會到 「A貨學券制」呢？
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
And you want to be a Corporate Finance Banker in Hong Kong?
One of the things I have learnt while working in a bank as an Oil analyst was that there really is only one fatal mistake you can make. All other mistakes can be made non-lethal, but this one, pretty much guarantees someone's head is gonna roll.
No... It is not recommending a bad stock
No... It is not providing a wrong price target
No... It is not providing predictions of revenue or profits that proves to be false
The biggest mistake you can make in investment banking is getting facts wrong.
Why is it so bad? Because the bank can lose clients and money.
Same thing with being a corporate finance banker.
For example, some larger investment bank wants to do deal. The deal requires the approval of minority shareholders.
As per stock exchange requirements, an independent financial advisor will need to be appointed to give an independent financial evaluation and recommendation to the shareholders.
Together with the details of the deal, the letter to shareholders from the independent financial advisor will be all compiled into a circular for shareholders.
If your numbers are wrong, a deal doesn't get done. Then your clients get pissed, your partnering banks get pissed.
If the deal gets done, it will probably be delayed, and if some adverse market condition were to occur... Say you want to do an IPO. You could have sold the stock at $10 a share, then someone finds something is wrong in your documentation, they halt and delay the IPO, HSI falls 3000 pts, now the client is only going to get $7 per share, and probably needs the over allotment money to support the stock... Ooops...
So. Here's the deal.
Here's the headrolling mistake.
Here's the new date for the deal.
Finally, here's the "report card" from the press.
The question is...
1. Will Merrill Lynch or the company go back to that same Independent Financial Advisor next time?
2. Will any other bank or company?
3. If not, then what?
Thats pretty much all I am going to say about this particular deal. And I expect everyone is praying over there for a continued bullish sentiment in the market. =) ho ho ho
No... It is not recommending a bad stock
No... It is not providing a wrong price target
No... It is not providing predictions of revenue or profits that proves to be false
The biggest mistake you can make in investment banking is getting facts wrong.
Why is it so bad? Because the bank can lose clients and money.
Same thing with being a corporate finance banker.
For example, some larger investment bank wants to do deal. The deal requires the approval of minority shareholders.
As per stock exchange requirements, an independent financial advisor will need to be appointed to give an independent financial evaluation and recommendation to the shareholders.
Together with the details of the deal, the letter to shareholders from the independent financial advisor will be all compiled into a circular for shareholders.
If your numbers are wrong, a deal doesn't get done. Then your clients get pissed, your partnering banks get pissed.
If the deal gets done, it will probably be delayed, and if some adverse market condition were to occur... Say you want to do an IPO. You could have sold the stock at $10 a share, then someone finds something is wrong in your documentation, they halt and delay the IPO, HSI falls 3000 pts, now the client is only going to get $7 per share, and probably needs the over allotment money to support the stock... Ooops...
So. Here's the deal.
Here's the headrolling mistake.
Here's the new date for the deal.
Finally, here's the "report card" from the press.
The question is...
1. Will Merrill Lynch or the company go back to that same Independent Financial Advisor next time?
2. Will any other bank or company?
3. If not, then what?
Thats pretty much all I am going to say about this particular deal. And I expect everyone is praying over there for a continued bullish sentiment in the market. =) ho ho ho
叫雞無罪！
噚日，孫柏文約 咗《利字當頭》一欄總舵主利世民兄食飯。因為我有一個經常遲到嘅壞習慣，所要去到餐廳嘅時候，已經見到世民兄坐低睇緊餐牌。當我走埋去，坐低嘅時候，世民 兄就同我講：「你又遲到，我好肚餓。不如，叫咗嘢食先至慢慢傾。」所以，我就攞張餐牌睇，睇吓有乜好食。睇吓睇吓，我忽然問咗利世民兄一句：「你呢排有冇 叫雞？」
食物愈唔安全，對大財團愈有利
唔知道佢係唔係血糖低，不過一聽到我嘅說話，佢就使出我好耐未見過嘅「超級薩亞人」眼神，問番我一句：「孫柏文， 你喺到講乜啊？」我都呆一呆，亦即刻解釋，因為唔知道有乜好食，又俾呢排啲有關食物安全嘅新聞纏繞，所以先至想了解世民兄嘅飲食習慣有冇改變。又可能因為 我曾經做過當時係立法會議員陸恭蕙嘅intern，沾染咗陸議員嗰種將番鬼佬環保詞語low energy變成「低能」嘅中文用法（disclosure：陸議員同我同一間中學畢業，大家中文都係咁上下），所以先至衝口而出，問佢有冇「叫雞」。解 釋完之後，世民兄就大笑，亦放低餐牌向侍應生叫咗個咖喱雞飯。
我哋一路食飯，就一路討論如果大眾市民覺得食物唔安全，用經濟角度分析，會有乜嘢後果出現。 咁我哋都同意，食物愈唔安全，對大財團愈有利，而理由亦好簡單。最初，食物供應鏈當中，不論係種植、飼養商，分銷商或者零售商戶，全部都可能係小商戶。
有 一日，某項食品嘅安全出咗問題，市民第一個反應就係罷買該項食品。而政客第一個反應就係「再三要求」政府「確保」食物安全。當然，政府根本就無能為力，所 以市民亦會漸漸覺得政府冇可能確保食物安全，繼續罷買。不過，因為有些食物，例如雞蛋，係日常飲食當中佔有太重要嘅地位，市民冇可能長期罷買，所以必定會 有人察覺到，市民其實肯出高價去買雞蛋，只要供應商可以確保安全就可以。
如果你係小商戶，Sorry
不 過，一個零售商戶如果要確保食物供應係安全，就一定要有規模。因為零售商戶淨係要養活一隊人去做檢查，都要好多錢，所以零售商戶做唔到某個銷量，根本不能 彌補檢查成本。大家都知道街市擺檔嘅個體戶，根本冇可能檢驗食物，漸漸就會傾向幫襯連鎖式超級市場。當然，大家都知道超級市場都經常有有關食物出問題嘅醜 聞，不過大家都知道我哋特區超級市場嘅反應，一定比政府快。因為如果出事，負責安全嘅超市職員面對嘅高層壓力，一定會比政府負責安全嘅公務員多。
正當世界 各地嘅連鎖式超級市場，都在尋找盡量安全嘅食物供應時，都希望購買過程可以愈簡單愈好。最好就係可以同一間飼養商協商，毋須再去另一間。所以大家亦會見到 飼養商規模愈來愈大。到時，食物安全絕對會提升，而因為消費者願意出比現在更高嘅價錢，去買一份安心，呢啲大型飼養商、零售商亦會賺大錢。其實我所講嘅已 經發生緊，前日喺花旗國都有一單買賣，就係兩間家禽飼養商進行收購合併（Pilgrim's Pride同Gold Kist），成為全球最大嘅飼養商。
如果你係一個食物供應鏈當中嘅小商戶，唔好話我冇警告過你。
跟進可以升一倍的股票
兩個禮拜前，孫柏文同大家推介一隻可以升一倍嘅股票──358江西銅業。
當時我話，只要市場相信「高銅價」唔係泡沫，而係因有本身供求、價高嘅理由，江銅就可以升一倍。
理由係，睇江銅由7至10月嘅第三季可以賺0.518人民幣一股，即係話，每年每股盈利2元一股。
當然，第三季銅價亦於3.2至3.7美元一磅之間徘徊（噚日落筆一刻，銅價每磅3.14美元），所以江銅想每年每股有2元盈利，銅價一定要重上呢個水平。
200日線點都要試試
每 股有2元盈利，而市場又覺得江銅應該有八倍市盈率時，股價就可升到16元。噚日收市，江銅股價就係8.36元。大家可能會問：「上一次第三季，銅價徘徊喺 高位，市場知江銅會賺大錢。不過，因為市場都相信銅價係泡沫，所以江銅股價都冇受惠，今次銅價就算重返高位，江銅股價點解會升呢？」
佔盡天時地利人和
今 次江銅股價會升嘅理由係，銅價再挑戰200日線，只要唔跌穿，市場就會確定銅價升軌繼續，江銅股價就會有爆炸性升幅。
好多時，一隻股票好、原材料又好，上 升速度有如銅價自05年5月至06年5月咁急、咁多，都需要下試200日平均線，才知道是否升勢繼續。大家可能會問：「咁樣嘅情況，有冇前科可鑑」有，我 今日畫咗個圖表，提供個例子畀大家睇睇。
大家只要睇吓05年中至06年初，油價同857中石油股價嘅走勢關係圖，就會明白我嘅意思。
最後，銅價要重拾升 軌，其實已經佔盡天時、地利、人和。首先，有花旗國中央銀行濫發鈔票，仲有，祖國需求有增無減等等嘅基本理由，銅價應該可以保持升勢。銅價幾時可以肯定重 返200日平均線之上？我唔知道，不過發生嘅一刻，孫柏文當然會提醒大家。
Follow the story from 1 to 6.
Monday, December 04, 2006
和黃月底見$100？
大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎，都會留意到，孫柏文每一次出「一注獨贏」呢四個字為大家提供投資建議嘅時候，都會提供埋「目標價」同目標價嘅「時限」。
例如，今年3月6日叫大家「一注獨贏買白銀」嘅時候，我為大家提供嘅目標價就係120美元一盎斯，而有效限期就係10年至2016年3月6日。
不 過，我相信大家都留意到，我喺11月22日叫大家「一注獨贏買和黃」嘅時候，冇提供埋目標價同目標價嘅時限。理由係和黃嘅3雖然推出完全拋棄以前經營模式 嘅X-Series「無限無線寬頻服務」，不過因為和黃當時未公布X-Series嘅定價，所以我決定等和黃出定價先至為大家提供目標價。
咁上個禮拜五，和黃喺英國嘅3 UK卒之成為第一個推出X-Series嘅市場，亦同時間宣布定價，所以今日我就為大家提供我嘅目標價同目標價嘅時限。
目標價：100元一股
年期：一年至2007年11月22日
大 家可能會問：「點解100元？」首先，我知道好多人覺得買和黃，就等如買佢哋可以運用財技「解決」3多年虧損嘅問題。有啲同行財經口水佬，更加覺得因為可 以睇得明和黃盤數，而引以為榮。不過，經過一個周末嘅時間，我相信市場會將和黃由一間要倚靠財技嘅「計數股」，變成一間炒「無線寬頻服務破格先驅」嘅「概 念股」。
原因係和黃X-Series喺英國嘅定 價，比一般無線服務評論員估計為低，仲要低好多。定價吸引程度，令一些以前多次狠批過和黃嘅英國鬼佬評論員，都大讚和黃今次爭一口氣，仲話會完全改變全行 嘅收費服務模式，令「畀咗錢就可以任用」遲早都會成為行規。市場覺得呢個可能性有幾高？就連Vodafone嘅總裁都喺上個禮拜五咁講，所以今次和黃真係 正途上嘅先驅。
撥亂反正好事近
大 家可能會問：「我都知勁，不過消費者有冇興趣先？」聽聞3 UK嘅網站喺上個禮拜五，因為有太多人瀏覽，所以出現「死機」情況。仲有，平時出咗名快聽電話嘅3 UK客戶服務，都因為有太多人打電話去買X-Series服務，導致客戶需要面對超過45分鐘嘅等候時間，先至可以同服務主任講電話。所以我絕對有信心消 費者喺呢個定價水平，對X-Series有興趣。
噚日，我同一個做對沖基金嘅朋友喺灣仔修頓打籃球，講起消費者對X-Series嘅反應同影響，佢就話： 「嘩！有少少似playstation 3，最好就係3 UK每個禮拜一路公布上客數量。如果市場開始相信3會冇事，和黃真係可以當『概念股』咁炒，年底見100！」可能我朋友忘記已經係12月，仲剩番十幾日， 都係畀和黃多啲時間好。
不過，我都同意朋友嘅睇法，我都希望3 UK可以好快公布上客數量，等市場都可以知道X-Series有幾勁。最後，呢幾日聽3 UK高層說話，察覺到佢哋sell 3嘅方法有變化，重點已經唔再放落功能身上，而係重複又重複咁講「無限無線寬頻服務」，撥亂反正，好事、好事。
The reviews on Hutchison 3G - 3 UK X-Series are coming in...
Well, as you may know, I have repeatedly said I was bullish on Hutchison Whampoa 0013, because of the new flat rate-mobile-unlimited web browing package "X-Series " that is going to be launched by 3. And think of this as an analyst trading update.
Of course, there were many questions that remained to be answered since when I first shown my enthusiasm back on the 22th of November 2006.
Question 1.
Pricing?
Concern: If priced high to avoid the traditional Old telcos fear of cannabilization, then it is pretty much doomed to fail.
Well, pricing is clear. It is low. Lower than expectations (expectations here, humble pie here).
And from the anecdotal evidence (here), the pricing is highly attractive. Also, this flat rate pricing is the admission by telcos, that bandwidth is no longer the "scarce resource" that needs conserving. Non time intensive requirement to understand the phone bill (a simple "XXM per sec transmission per X$" plan), or perhaps a customer's peace of mind will be the driving consideration. Perhaps this will indeed be in the immediate future.
Question 2.
Hidden restrictions?
Concern: Old telcos are well known to have an affinity to well... totally rip off their customers... It was like their mission statement was "Piss off Customers. As much as I can. Let them Hate us." or more succintly, "Hate = Success"
There are fine prints. 3, after all is a telco. But... the fine print seems acceptable. Browsing or web browser abled functions only, therefore internet functions such as FTP (transferring files) is off limits. I guess Bittorrent is officially off the table hahaha, and therefore so is the potential tagline for X-Series "Leech. Peer. Seed."
But what I loved about the fine print is this. 3 UK never specified how they will penalize users that goes above and beyond the usage limits (1G data transferred, 5000 mins on Skype Etc.) They merely say that they will "contact you" if you go over the limit?
Contact? CONTACT? What does that mean?
They will send over a social worker-esque representative to help you solve your internet addiction problems?
They will send over Chinatown's finest triads goons, to cause some permanent "reminder" on your knees about the dangers of going over limit?
An SMS telling you that going over the limit is "Not Fair, Not Nice"?
Just thinking about that gave me a good 2 minutes chortle.
Anyhow, As X-Series limits the software and hardware you can use, there are still alot of downloadabled software that people wants to use on their phones that cannot be used on X-Series, and it is causing a little missed expectations syndrome.
Mobile operators should seriously consider opening the platform, completely. Let users think of ways to use their bandwidth. You say they will have 3.6M per seconds, well, then let them have it and use it as they see fit.
Hardware too... Open it up. Let the user decide if they want cameras on their phones. Maybe I just want to surf the web and watch youtube when I ride the train. The inability to provide organic customization. That perhaps is the greatest downfall of phones... Perhaps someday we will see coin sized "antenneas/central processing unit" that has many USB ports for other functions to be plugged in to form a phone. Will that day come I wonder?
Of course, there were many questions that remained to be answered since when I first shown my enthusiasm back on the 22th of November 2006.
Question 1.
Pricing?
Concern: If priced high to avoid the traditional Old telcos fear of cannabilization, then it is pretty much doomed to fail.
Well, pricing is clear. It is low. Lower than expectations (expectations here, humble pie here).
And from the anecdotal evidence (here), the pricing is highly attractive. Also, this flat rate pricing is the admission by telcos, that bandwidth is no longer the "scarce resource" that needs conserving. Non time intensive requirement to understand the phone bill (a simple "XXM per sec transmission per X$" plan), or perhaps a customer's peace of mind will be the driving consideration. Perhaps this will indeed be in the immediate future.
Question 2.
Hidden restrictions?
Concern: Old telcos are well known to have an affinity to well... totally rip off their customers... It was like their mission statement was "Piss off Customers. As much as I can. Let them Hate us." or more succintly, "Hate = Success"
There are fine prints. 3, after all is a telco. But... the fine print seems acceptable. Browsing or web browser abled functions only, therefore internet functions such as FTP (transferring files) is off limits. I guess Bittorrent is officially off the table hahaha, and therefore so is the potential tagline for X-Series "Leech. Peer. Seed."
But what I loved about the fine print is this. 3 UK never specified how they will penalize users that goes above and beyond the usage limits (1G data transferred, 5000 mins on Skype Etc.) They merely say that they will "contact you" if you go over the limit?
Contact? CONTACT? What does that mean?
They will send over a social worker-esque representative to help you solve your internet addiction problems?
They will send over Chinatown's finest triads goons, to cause some permanent "reminder" on your knees about the dangers of going over limit?
An SMS telling you that going over the limit is "Not Fair, Not Nice"?
Just thinking about that gave me a good 2 minutes chortle.
Anyhow, As X-Series limits the software and hardware you can use, there are still alot of downloadabled software that people wants to use on their phones that cannot be used on X-Series, and it is causing a little missed expectations syndrome.
Mobile operators should seriously consider opening the platform, completely. Let users think of ways to use their bandwidth. You say they will have 3.6M per seconds, well, then let them have it and use it as they see fit.
Hardware too... Open it up. Let the user decide if they want cameras on their phones. Maybe I just want to surf the web and watch youtube when I ride the train. The inability to provide organic customization. That perhaps is the greatest downfall of phones... Perhaps someday we will see coin sized "antenneas/central processing unit" that has many USB ports for other functions to be plugged in to form a phone. Will that day come I wonder?
Friday, December 01, 2006
3 UK裁員不是賣盤
今日12月1日，和黃嘅3就開 始售賣佢哋無限無線寬頻上網服務X-Series。所以，今日我都覺得要為大家跟進，我推介過嘅和黃啲最新消息。首先，英國3 UK傳出大裁高層人員嘅消息，市場傳聞和黃係想執靚3 UK跟住賣盤。我當然唔信，如果和黃真係放棄3，我會立即收番「一注獨贏買和黃」呢個建議。
不 過大家可能會問：「咁點解要炒咁多高層魷魚？」如果要我估，炒嘅高層都係負責研製啲3G可以用嘅功能。不過因為和黃將3「一注獨贏買無線寬頻服務」，用戶 要嘅功能，喺互聯網上應有盡有，根本無需要再自己花心機研製 3G功能。啲人唔炒，又有何用？仲有，炒研製3G功能嘅人亦代表「冇回頭路」嘅決心，絕對有破釜沉舟之意，好事、好事。
不過，眼見呢排 playstation 3面世，我想問和黃一句：「點解人哋賣新嘢，可以出現大排長龍、出現口角、甚至打交去爭嘅場面。而你哋就算瘋狂補貼，都不過係咁？是否應該檢討、檢討？」 其實，和黃X-Series定價嘅時候，最好問自己一句，究竟平日用戶用咗你哋幾多%嘅network capacity？你話如果可以好似98年嘅AOL咁，3G新客戶多到個網絡負荷唔到，死機，你話和黃嘅股價會點？
最後，講起和黃同星球大戰，就順帶一提電訊盈科賣盤失敗單嘢。我相信大家唯一可以體會到嘅係，當李澤楷知道幕後真正買家是誰嘅一刻，佢嘅心情就如星球大戰中，Luke知道黑武士Darth Vadar同佢嘅關係嗰場戲：「楷，I'm your father。」
「楷，I'm your father。」
不 過大家可能會問：「咁點解要炒咁多高層魷魚？」如果要我估，炒嘅高層都係負責研製啲3G可以用嘅功能。不過因為和黃將3「一注獨贏買無線寬頻服務」，用戶 要嘅功能，喺互聯網上應有盡有，根本無需要再自己花心機研製 3G功能。啲人唔炒，又有何用？仲有，炒研製3G功能嘅人亦代表「冇回頭路」嘅決心，絕對有破釜沉舟之意，好事、好事。
不過，眼見呢排 playstation 3面世，我想問和黃一句：「點解人哋賣新嘢，可以出現大排長龍、出現口角、甚至打交去爭嘅場面。而你哋就算瘋狂補貼，都不過係咁？是否應該檢討、檢討？」 其實，和黃X-Series定價嘅時候，最好問自己一句，究竟平日用戶用咗你哋幾多%嘅network capacity？你話如果可以好似98年嘅AOL咁，3G新客戶多到個網絡負荷唔到，死機，你話和黃嘅股價會點？
最後，講起和黃同星球大戰，就順帶一提電訊盈科賣盤失敗單嘢。我相信大家唯一可以體會到嘅係，當李澤楷知道幕後真正買家是誰嘅一刻，佢嘅心情就如星球大戰中，Luke知道黑武士Darth Vadar同佢嘅關係嗰場戲：「楷，I'm your father。」
「楷，I'm your father。」
終極見頂訊號大發現
前日，孫柏文去咗間中學，同一班對辯論有興趣嘅學生交流咗一啲sell ideas嘅睇法。當日，我好用心良苦咁，重複再重複提及其中一個好有效sell ideas嘅伎倆，就係repetition（多次重複你想觀眾記得嘅idea）。今日，我就會試用同一伎倆，睇吓大家係咪記得我想講嘅idea。
我今日希望大家會記得，中央銀行濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都會大升特升。大家可能會問：「資產升值，大家有錢贏，中央銀行應好開心。有乜問題？」問題所在，簡單講句就係中央銀行將貨幣供應大增，就會壓低借錢嘅成本，引誘企業家借錢創業或投資。不過，每一次貨幣供應大增，就會衍生兩個問題。
第一個問題係貨幣供應大增時，新資金未必會去投資，可能去咗投機買賣，甚至會去咗畀人消費。如果當今世上有100蚊，亦有100件貨物，貨物平均價錢就會係 1蚊，不過如果中央銀行印刷銀紙，令到世上有200蚊，不過貨物數量又維持喺100件，貨物平均價錢就會升至2蚊，即係100%通脹率，購買力減一半。所以，中央銀行濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都會大升特升。
第二個問題係如果有過份貨幣供應，就會出現大量「錯誤」冇價值嘅投資。例如，如果有一大批人借錢起樓，不過最後因為冇基本需求，樓市大跌，借錢起樓嘅人就會資不抵債，買咗樓嘅人就會負資產，繼而令經濟衰退變成大蕭條。最後需要中央銀行進一步將貨幣供應增加，出現惡性循環，上述通脹情況愈來愈嚴重，資產泡沫愈發愈大。最後令到貨幣購買力崩潰，人心惶惶恐慌性拋售該貨幣，最終就會好似人類自古至今嘅所有紙幣一樣，冇人用、變廢紙。不過，未去到最後，中央銀行濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都會大升特升。
呢幾日，有兩批人士在戰鬥，第一批係希望花旗國中央銀行繼續濫發鈔票，去彌補花旗國樓市爆煲對經濟表現影響嘅人，佢哋就係「濫發派」。而第二批人就係懲罰中央銀行濫發鈔票嘅人，佢哋就係「懲罰派」。喺呢一場角力當中，最容易睇到邊一面贏緊，就係睇究竟啲量度美元購買力嘅指標，有冇反映鈔票購買力被削弱嘅事實。
第一回合星球大戰（上個禮拜到今個禮拜一），「懲罰派」將量度美元兌其他貨幣購買力嘅美滙指數推低，直迫從73年美元同黃金脫鈎以來，從未穿破嘅80點範圍。而大家都相信如果美滙指數跌穿80點將會引發恐慌性拋售，摧毀全球對美元嘅信心。所以，市場相信中央銀行要投降、要停止濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都大跌特跌。
第二回合帝國反擊戰（禮拜一之後幾日），「濫發派」開始反擊，知道要中央銀行停止濫發鈔票嘅主要壓力來自急速下降嘅美滙指數，所以就開始向控制歐元嘅歐洲中央銀行施壓。因為歐元佔美滙指數比重57.6%，只要歐洲中央銀行一齊去濫發鈔票，美滙指數就會喘定，停止濫發美元嘅壓力就會被瓦解。中央銀行就可以繼續濫發鈔票，令到所有資產，包括股票都會繼續大升特升。
第三回合武士復仇（未來？），「懲罰派」知道有一項量度美元購買力嘅指標，係冇得「做數」。如果呢個指標失控，就會暴露濫發鈔票、購買力被削弱嘅事實。所以如果呢個指標失控，中央銀行就真係要投降，抽錢走去保衞美元。呢個指標就係金價。大家只要睇番今年5月，金價開始急速上升，開始暴露美元購買力被削弱嘅事實。一眾中央銀行，為保長遠可以繼續濫發鈔票嘅能力，就犧牲短期利益，將錢抽走去保衞美元。
結論就係，只要一日金價升勢緩慢或者唔升，中央銀行就可以繼續濫發鈔票，令所有資產，包括股票都繼續大升特升。所以，如果大家想估股市幾時見頂，想估中央銀行幾時抽錢走，睇金價就得（附圖）。
我今日希望大家會記得，中央銀行濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都會大升特升。大家可能會問：「資產升值，大家有錢贏，中央銀行應好開心。有乜問題？」問題所在，簡單講句就係中央銀行將貨幣供應大增，就會壓低借錢嘅成本，引誘企業家借錢創業或投資。不過，每一次貨幣供應大增，就會衍生兩個問題。
第一個問題係貨幣供應大增時，新資金未必會去投資，可能去咗投機買賣，甚至會去咗畀人消費。如果當今世上有100蚊，亦有100件貨物，貨物平均價錢就會係 1蚊，不過如果中央銀行印刷銀紙，令到世上有200蚊，不過貨物數量又維持喺100件，貨物平均價錢就會升至2蚊，即係100%通脹率，購買力減一半。所以，中央銀行濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都會大升特升。
第二個問題係如果有過份貨幣供應，就會出現大量「錯誤」冇價值嘅投資。例如，如果有一大批人借錢起樓，不過最後因為冇基本需求，樓市大跌，借錢起樓嘅人就會資不抵債，買咗樓嘅人就會負資產，繼而令經濟衰退變成大蕭條。最後需要中央銀行進一步將貨幣供應增加，出現惡性循環，上述通脹情況愈來愈嚴重，資產泡沫愈發愈大。最後令到貨幣購買力崩潰，人心惶惶恐慌性拋售該貨幣，最終就會好似人類自古至今嘅所有紙幣一樣，冇人用、變廢紙。不過，未去到最後，中央銀行濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都會大升特升。
呢幾日，有兩批人士在戰鬥，第一批係希望花旗國中央銀行繼續濫發鈔票，去彌補花旗國樓市爆煲對經濟表現影響嘅人，佢哋就係「濫發派」。而第二批人就係懲罰中央銀行濫發鈔票嘅人，佢哋就係「懲罰派」。喺呢一場角力當中，最容易睇到邊一面贏緊，就係睇究竟啲量度美元購買力嘅指標，有冇反映鈔票購買力被削弱嘅事實。
第一回合星球大戰（上個禮拜到今個禮拜一），「懲罰派」將量度美元兌其他貨幣購買力嘅美滙指數推低，直迫從73年美元同黃金脫鈎以來，從未穿破嘅80點範圍。而大家都相信如果美滙指數跌穿80點將會引發恐慌性拋售，摧毀全球對美元嘅信心。所以，市場相信中央銀行要投降、要停止濫發鈔票，所有資產，包括股票都大跌特跌。
第二回合帝國反擊戰（禮拜一之後幾日），「濫發派」開始反擊，知道要中央銀行停止濫發鈔票嘅主要壓力來自急速下降嘅美滙指數，所以就開始向控制歐元嘅歐洲中央銀行施壓。因為歐元佔美滙指數比重57.6%，只要歐洲中央銀行一齊去濫發鈔票，美滙指數就會喘定，停止濫發美元嘅壓力就會被瓦解。中央銀行就可以繼續濫發鈔票，令到所有資產，包括股票都會繼續大升特升。
第三回合武士復仇（未來？），「懲罰派」知道有一項量度美元購買力嘅指標，係冇得「做數」。如果呢個指標失控，就會暴露濫發鈔票、購買力被削弱嘅事實。所以如果呢個指標失控，中央銀行就真係要投降，抽錢走去保衞美元。呢個指標就係金價。大家只要睇番今年5月，金價開始急速上升，開始暴露美元購買力被削弱嘅事實。一眾中央銀行，為保長遠可以繼續濫發鈔票嘅能力，就犧牲短期利益，將錢抽走去保衞美元。
結論就係，只要一日金價升勢緩慢或者唔升，中央銀行就可以繼續濫發鈔票，令所有資產，包括股票都繼續大升特升。所以，如果大家想估股市幾時見頂，想估中央銀行幾時抽錢走，睇金價就得（附圖）。
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