Thursday, January 08, 2009

UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

尋日,我喺 Money Cafe 話美國國債嘅泡沫,應該爆緊。亦推介咗隻睇淡同拋空20年期以上美國國債嘅ETF... UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF




  1. i bought TBT already. the problem is, if deflation is indeed coming (pretty much like after 1997 in HK), TBT could still fall.

    any thoughts?

  2. The management fee of TBT is quite expensive....

  3. Two issues:

    1) US treasury is in a bubble and probably the longest lasting one that hasn't bursted. But this doesn't necessarily mean that it will burst given the debt deflationary spiral that the US might face. Just take a look at Japan and how its rate has stayed low for a long time. Point here being there is probably better spots than entering the trade now.

    2) As an instrument, TBT is OK but there are unfavorable tax consequences. Look at what happened to SKF and SDS. The volume on this and the large bid/ask spread also make it even more expensive. It is still a decent instrument but one just need to be aware of all the risks.

  4. The short US treasury trade is a very crowded one.

    I dunno...

    But there is a little NASDAQ 5000 March 2000 feel right now.

    I mean Bill Gross he who short US treasury and long everything else, has begun to buy US treasuries..

    Kinda like George Soros getting into tech right at March 2000.