Saturday, April 11, 2009

股災在即 明益大家 教你幾時 Put!

09年,有個財經blog極速走紅。今年一月先開始寫。

呢個blog叫 Zerohedge

咁佢哋就話呢個「音樂椅」升浪就快完。(講真,大家都知呢個反彈浪流到爆)

The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans

"Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.

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雖然孫柏文睇唔明 Zerohedge個兩個chart(大家睇得明,不仿指點吓小弟嘅迷津)
基本上依家個市係D數、圖佬炒,塘水滾塘魚。D錢一走,大鑊。

不過話股災喺幾個禮拜,甚至幾日內發生,都咪話唔誘惑。起碼想一注獨贏、訓身買put。

如果真係股災在即,有冇呢浪嘅見頂信號?

有。

唔使問亞貴,睇下面班友幾時做野就得。

Goldman mulling stock offering - report

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs is mulling a new stock sale to repay the $10 billion loan it received from the government last year, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Goldman (GS, Fortune 500) could announce the offering to investors as early as next week, the report said. The company hasn't decided on the final size of the sale, but it is expected to be in the range of several billion dollars, the newspaper said.

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如果你係 sale屎,用上邊個兩個point去pitch。賣乜野來hedge都有人買。

11 comments:

  1. Just for sharing,此時此刻的策略,本人下星期會15900以上開put,目標六月12000點.

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  2. 股災..... 閣下輸錢,就是股災..

    股市不是升,就是跌.
    現在各國政府都加印銀紙,
    話不定...印到買起所有股票??

    現在要加繄唱好香港...
    股市四萬点, 年尾各位打工仔加薪二成....

    馬照跑,雞照叫... 多好....

    咩... 咩... 咩...

    ReplyDelete
  3. 黑天鵝再來,咪燒來做燒鵝.

    咩... 咩... 咩...

    ReplyDelete
  4. put 早一日都可能挾死bor? when sin?

    ReplyDelete
  5. 買put option咪唔會俾人夾死lor...

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  6. 唔... 睇基本因素,都唔使等好耐就會冧...
    hehe 唔知點解依家將花旗國D Credit card,汽車業,東歐銀行業掃晒落床下底... 睇唔到睇唔到...

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  7. 即是印足銀紙,咪掂?

    夾你個PUT,可能足足成個月,你点捱?

    或者順勢見到趺才買,

    原因:好簡單.
    閣下的錢多,定大戶錢多?(隨時睇住夾你)
    大戶的錢多,定銀行錢多?(尤其是收咗政府的錢過D,
    贏錢可以急急還錢,輸咗又可以借過)
    銀行的錢多,定佢個政府錢多???
    (唔駛再多講,完全明白嗎)

    最後,良心一句.現在最好不要再參與股市市場.
    除非閣下錢多...

    咩... 咩... 咩...

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  8. excellent blog. thanks for sharing.

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  9. Yo S Tsui,

    Do you have any idea what those two charts on zero hedge is talking about?

    How to read it?

    To me, you are the best at deciphering stuff like this...

    ReplyDelete
  10. 小弟認為現時股市走勢跟九八年四月反彈浪類同. 當年恒指由八千幾反彈上萬二, 今時今日市場及資金出入更 efficient, 令股市波幅更巨. 美國同日本股市其實已經開始"立立"地, 唯獨散戶投入度最高的香港卻升得如癡如醉.

    小弟極贊同柏文所講, 高盛出貨乃見頂之時. 今次香港升市, 快狠勁, 但中移動冇乜變化. 今日中移動終於開車, 散戶又一面倒被引落搭, 今次升市應該時辰已到.

    可能未來一兩日恒指會收高於大家所謂的阻力 15,7xx, 但未來兩星期向下機率壓一. 從基本面看, 大市大有機會下試比去年十月更低的水平.

    「上帝要你滅亡, 必先令你瘋狂.」 Laughing (2009).

    ReplyDelete