Sunday, May 31, 2009

今日係最後落車機會

維持治安、保護財產,社會通常都係由政府提供,例如警察去負責。收得埋嘅嘢,都仲算可以唔使保護,不過人所皆知係你嘅財產(例如物業不動產),就真係好難唔使搵警察幫手。不過一旦政府運作出現問題,又甚至政府有意或無意侵犯私人財產,民間就好大機會以自發秩序形式去保護自己啲嘢。其中一個方法,就係組織民間自衞隊。

如果政府只係無能,自衞隊多數只會行吓beat,睇吓有冇賊仔。但如果政府係搶掠嘅源頭,自衞隊分分鐘演變成反政府嘅叛軍,同政府打內戰。就算政府有外國政府支持,作為手無寸鐵嘅市民惟有盡量躲避,唔好逞英雄。

官民「內戰」有排打


前晚,花旗國醞釀多時嘅官民衝突,卒之爆大鑊。

之前政府透過聯儲局印鈔,令人覺得貨幣快會大幅貶值,從市民手上嘅現金、債券搶去購買力,毋須流血就去侵犯私人財產。

不過一眾買開債券嘅人,就自發組織自衞隊成bond vigilantes,喺前晚罷買債券,令政府就算有大陸等盟友支持,都要出高好多嘅利息,先出到債券、借到錢。而類似嘅內戰仲有排打。

不過當兩方駁火、槍林彈雨之際,股市就仆直。孫柏文奉勸大家,唔好逞英雄,今日係五月最後一個交易日,要把握最後落車機會,嚴守sell in May。

9 comments:

  1. 又話一注獨沽港交所, 又 Sell in May...

    現在港交所已經$125, 恆指都快要19000... 你真係勁.

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  2. according Pakman's previous record ... his prediction will come true about 1-2 months delay ... (yes, it is his weakness cos he can't wait to tell everyone wht will happen next at once ... )

    well ... if you all hv time ... pls study CBBC (Bear) Qty O/S / Appledaily investor index ... all seem indicating peak should be almost reached this time ... I will say the highest point will not exceed 20,000 ... probably peak at 19,600 ... let's see ...

    (Disclaimer: It is not an investment recommendation ... hahaha)

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  3. 在"一注獨沽港交所"一文中, 孫兄的Deadline是2009年12月31日. 莫講2個月, 半年我都會等, 看看誰對誰錯.

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  4. Fitch knows me well...

    I honestly can't wait! hahahahaahhaha

    Patience has never been my greatest strength.

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  5. 就算是巴菲特, 都不敢做這樣估計, 因為莫講半年, 1-2年市場的升跌都冇人會估得到, 除非孫生認為自己比巴菲特再高幾班.

    你們以為用D什麼investor index就可以預測未來麼? 真係好天真, 但都不算傻.

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  6. 既然孫柏文先生強烈建議讀者一注獨沽港交所(0388), 請問先生本人有沒有沽港交所呢? 如果有, 點沽法? PUT輪? 熊証? 抑或是直接借貨沽空?

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  7. well ... dun take it so serious haha
    if you treat it as some prediction on the match of Man Utd. vs. Barcelona, you will find this article more interesting ...

    we always like to link the result (stock mkt/soccer match ... ) with some phenomenon / index ... just like Tsang's corridor, or even length of skirts ... but we all know that it may be just coincidence ... all linkages might be proved fatal at the end ...

    of cos, if you treat it as investment recommendation, then you are referring to a wrong column ...

    Well, I think Pakman will agree that he is surely not a good analyst somehow, according David Rosenberg's rule#9 - "Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run." ...

    The market is v. fun now, if you can find out where the bull market is now ^_^

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  8. Yo Fitch,

    When buying something (or shorting) I think of myself as really getting into a business or selling out...

    Flipping in and out is not what I can put my mind into. Which probably makes me a subprime trader hahahahah

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  9. 一注獨沽港交所,仲要年底前目標價62.85,笑死人,我俾夠一百蚊一手你幫我買。
    做得公眾人物,講野有分寸D好

    ReplyDelete