Monday, February 20, 2012

晒冷買希臘四月脫歐

翻查記錄,特區一眾精英股評人行家中,對歐洲同歐元嘅睇法都係主要話遲早出事,現有嘅結構冇可能延續。呢個預測,同外國嗰啲我最信嘅投資、分析高人係一模一樣。不過有如尋日喺獅子山學會同利世民、王弼討論時嘅結論一樣,個問題係幾時。

而因到今日都未有人肯一句講到尾咁話幾時,就等我做呢個預測嘅「數碼通(315)」,等我行先死先捱轟先。孫柏文今日話:「希臘將會2012年四月脫離歐元區。」

大家作為《金手指》fan屎,都知我做過好多攞膽嘅預測,06年話白銀十年升十二倍,07年匯豐賣百四蚊一股時叫大家沽清。不過今次呢個預測相信係最攞膽,原因係四月之係六個禮拜之後嘅事。

咁究竟呢六個禮拜會點?首先,希臘政府本身已誠信破產,再通過咩減赤方案已經係冇意思。雖然大家一早都知通過咩法案都係對政府財政嘅爛局冇幫助,不過之前大家都知佢哋通過法案就可以交差攞救濟。

而依家係通過咗都攞唔到,因為連歐洲其他政府都唔信會做,更唔信會做到,最殘酷係就算減到開支,因經濟急速萎縮,就算收支平衡,國債對GDP只會都會擴大,還債能力由冇得還變更冇得還。

亦因呢陣東風根本冇得擋,就不如借東風達政治目的。禮拜二,我講過話德國領導如要德國人民就範,傾國傾城咁放大政客權力去「救」歐元區,佢哋要學花旗國政府咁做個「雷曼」嚇人嚇到見棺材流眼淚。喺咁嘅incentive推動下,希臘唔會有方案能滿足德國政府。所以再加碼救希臘唔會發生,三月希臘政府將會走國債數。

大家可能話:「唔還國債錢,唔等於要離開歐元區。甚至係唔使還國債會令未來希臘財政更穩健,更能留喺歐元區。」問題係政府「債主」唔止係國債債券持有人,公務員呢?每個月喺「全民退休派錢」政策下攞錢嘅人呢?全部都要出糧,出福利。

所以有如獅子山學會同事王弼話,希臘要自己發鈔,首先迫所有可以迫嘅人,例如銀行存戶、所有合約簽署人、公務員薪津、攞福利嘅人等,將歐元定個匯率後強制用新希臘貨幣做計算。之後就開波買賣俾佢自由浮動,等新貨幣可以跌至搵到應有對換率。

仲有,歐洲各國好多政客,都好似特區嘅工聯會、李卓人,真心覺得銀行家吓吓搵笨,草木皆兵咁反任何措施。而唔同特區,佢哋呢啲人真係執政話事。仲有,歐央行話自己唔蝕得,不過希臘唔俾時,好似當年史太林講梵蒂岡一樣,希臘亦問歐央行:「你有幾多架坦克?」到歐央行都中招,下一步又點?

當然,好似06年我話「花旗國樓市將慘過八萬五」一樣,就算俾我講中,又應該點落注?因為連我都應,我冇能力叫你一注獨沽雷曼兄弟,最多都係叫你拋空兩房。

講落注,大家嘅反應可能係:「瞓身沽歐元!」不過如果希臘脫歐元,係其他歐豬國家嘅先例,即示意留喺歐元區嘅國家將會係德國為首,甚至得番德國。咁嘅馬克2.0仲唔大升特升?

仲要轉身要快,因為一旦希臘離開後,歐洲各國人民唔敢再反對任何「非一般」救市措施時,例如印印印,歐元又會點?又或者係其他歐豬國家存戶見希臘存戶嘅遭遇,開始擠提,歐元流轉velocity暴跌,歐元又點?唔通美元、美債及同美元掛勾貨幣又係避難所?

尋日,因中國話「支持」歐元區及歐盟(中央都多次表態支持香港民主進程),港股無啦啦大升,地產股好似間間都被梁振英賜地起紅灣半島式住宅咁飆,我只可話呢場party冇我份玩,你玩繼續玩,我就戥你高興。

6 comments:

  1. well, why can't greece honor the old debt, while issuing a new currency for any new payment? i.e. a dual currency system for the transition.

    希臘的出路

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, for they can't afford to pay off their old debts in Euros...

      politically unfeasible...

      In fact, I think it is more likely if they keep the euro and default on debt.

      Delete
    2. i shouldn't have said "honor" the debt. rather, create a 'firewall' between historical debt (which can be renegotiated and take a haircut), and issue new currency for any new spending.

      this way the bottomless hole is at least sealed, for the moment.

      Delete
    3. True, that's the usual moves done by IMF...

      But if that is really up to the IMF and Greek government.

      I mean DSK got torpedoed because he was about to fly to Europe and tell Sarkozy + Merkel that's what the IMF wanted to do.

      Delete
  2. Hi Pakman,
    If you speculation are on the correct time path, how long will the down turn last?
    If we base on the scale of Leathman Brother, shall we multiply this by 3~5 times??
    Would like to hear your thought?
    LN

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Depends on those damn CDS and derivative products.

      I don't know whats gonna happen, but this is either the end of CDS market, or CDS issuers.

      Delete