Friday, May 08, 2009

嚴守 Sell in May(三之二)

呢個禮拜三,孫柏文講過,可以推翻今次升浪嘅一個隱憂,即佳士拿排頭攞錢嘅債主被害,攞錢喺其他人之後。令有資本嘅人唔敢放錢,因恐債仔出事破產會俾人搵笨。

應承大家今日講銀行壓力測試,因為呢個就係今次升浪第二大隱憂。首先提提大家,我落筆呢刻係未知測試結果,不過到大家睇到文時,結果已公佈。

測試如考A Levels,畀你pass晒五條E咁又點?攞乜嘢英文字母係唔緊要,最緊要係到九月有冇大學收。銀行壓力測試一樣,最終係要唔要增加資本。如果要,點增加。

金銀齊升有啟示

錢,一係私人資金,即輸咗會肉痛嗰隻,一係就政府出。衣家要私人投資者出錢買啲資不抵債、即零價值嘅嘢就真係難啲,所以應該又係花旗政府出錢。

咁政府已出咗唔少錢,買咗好多優先股,將優先股變成普通股去增資,就係唱到街頭巷尾都係咁諗嘅方案。例如美銀,傳聞被迫集資340億美元。咁佢哋已攞咗政府450億美元TARP,不過係優先股,照理只要變普通股,即時冇集資壓力,連手頭嘅建行(939)都唔使賣。

不過點都好,啲銀行全部都係黑洞。填窿嘅政府錢應該又係聯儲局印,印完買國債。

雖然對上一次會議,聯儲局話唔會再印新銀紙,不過呢幾日壓力測試消息流出後,金、銀都係咁升。

唔再加碼印?得咩?不過印唔印,長息已靜靜地升,記得今年要嚴守 Sell in May。

6 comments:

  1. Sell in early May, mid-May or at the end of May, the results are quite different. What do you suggest?

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  2. I say get out on the 1st... and don't look back in anger...

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  3. I still think there's a huge problem of people not wanting to admit the depreciated value of things. As if sweeping the problem under the carpet is going to solve the problem eventually.

    And why does something that's made from thin air can actually have a value? And that value only made commodities even more expensive. Then people rejoice for their degraded life having to work harder while earning less. Weird world man.

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  4. sell in MAY ! 卽 May 有高位啦! 6 月有低位?
    May 頭起, May 中高, May 尾低.
    "豬温大戰華爾街" 交易員一帶 Mask , 沽啦 !!!
    豬王到咗中心點, 死末 !!!

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  5. 可以推翻今次升浪嘅一個隱憂: 第一個 Point 就係"豬來了",唔係無錢,你會自己打開肚皮嗎? 有數好收啦? 唔係理由. 做淡!係好多豬温人, 好..好驚, 好鬼驚! 花旗老就得咗.
    第ニ個 Point ,週線圖,連升第十週11-15,第十一週18-22跌. 賭複製2007年8月由21000連升十週. 人的記憶都是重複.又重複, 一有時間, 入馬場,開啤酒,慢慢行過去以前的位置,睇馬! 飲啤 !又睇馬!又飲啤....溝女最重要!

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  6. 祝孫媽媽母親節快樂

    ReplyDelete