Tuesday, April 10, 2007

一注獨贏買江銅

今日,孫柏文又要再使出「一注獨贏」呢四個大字,如果有睇開《金手指》嘅fan屎,就知道今日我呢個股壇黑氣石又有投資推介。如果你係個盲目支持 《金手指》嘅fan屎,你可以直接去到呢篇文章嘅尾部,即刻睇吓今日嘅投資建議同目標價係乜,跟住即刻落盤去買。不過,如果你係一個要有充份理由同分析先 至買股票嘅人,咁今日你就睇睇呢篇文。

今日我想推介嘅股票,就係江西銅業(358)。如果大家有睇開《金手指》,都可能有印象我曾經講過江銅。其實喺06年11月21日,我已經喺一篇題為《推介一隻升一倍嘅股票》講過江銅有力升一倍。不過,大家可能會問:「點解當時冇用「一注獨贏」呢四個字叫大家去買江銅?如果有叫,當時江銅股價8.1元一股,上個禮拜已經升到10.32元,大家咪可以賺多好多?」

係就係,不過江銅係一隻可以悶死好多人嘅股票,甚至可以話可以激死好多人嘅股票。原因係就算銅價本身大升特升,江銅股價都可以唔郁。例如喺04、05年,銅價雖然升咗差唔多有一倍,不過江銅就一路升唔穿04年初嘅高位。最後要去到06年先至有爆炸性嘅升幅,就係因為江銅有咁樣嘅特質,所以等佢好似要爆上先至叫大家去買(圖C、D、E)。

大家可能會問:「咁點解06年又有爆炸性嘅升幅呢?」

唔爆升都唔得

其實,所有原材料股都面對同一問題,呢個問題就係建制中嘅人,例如投資銀行分析員、中央銀行官員等等,日日重複咁講話「原材料升係因為炒作、係泡沫」。大家聽得多,就唔敢相信原材料升咗其實可以維持喺高價水平。每一次原材料股爆升,都係因為市場突然間到達 tipping point,達成共識,開始敢信原材料上升原來可以高處未算高。當市場開始用新共識嘅原材料高價位,去重新計算原材料公司嘅每股盈利,而公司市盈率冇變,隻股唔爆升都唔得。今日就為大家提供咗04、05年中石油同原油價格走勢關係圖(圖A及B),作為參考。

已返回06年水平

喺11月嘅嗰篇文章,我曾經話過江銅由06年7月至10月嘅第三季業績,三個月就賺0.518人民幣一股。而如果銅價全年都維持喺06年第三季嘅水平,江銅一 年可以每股賺兩元,而如果市盈率係8倍,即係話股價就會16元一股。

雖然經過舊年年尾從今年年初嘅跌幅,今時今日,銅價已經返回06年第三季嘅水平。最重 要係市場已經達成共識,覺得今次「唔係泡沫」,覺得銅價會至少維持喺呢個水平,所以最後要再同大家講多一次,一注獨贏買江銅

建議買入:江西銅業 358
目標價:HK$16
年期:十二個月

6 comments:

  1. Hi~ Goldfinger,
    I have read ur column on 26, 27, 28 March. You said 585 have some potentials.
    I finally bought it at 4.5, and it dramatically dropped to 2.86 on 10th April. It's just 7 days after your comments.
    Can you tell me why it will drop so fast? And will it rise again? Or I should cut lost??

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi pakman,

    #585 started to rise since oct2006 at (around)$2.5, I guess this price have a good support. Otherwise.....

    For #358, maybe 12 trade days can reach your target, haha.

    Do you agree?

    KAY

    ReplyDelete
  3. I dont think 4.5 is the reasonble price for 585. Pls. see my comment on March 25, 07 at the following link

    http://dordorlee.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  4. 585...

    They did execute well on the movie. But I have been very unhappy with the share price movement.

    This I think is because the Turtle movie didn't have legs. It failed to overcome the momentum of the movie 300 in the next weekend.

    Unless you are willing to hold on till the next movie comes out, I would recommend selling the stock. There are other battles these days one can fight and win.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  5. Unless there are macro economic control set in place all around the world (probably going to be triggered by gold and silver testing old highs) I agree... There is a distinct possibility of 358 going up very very quickly.

    I stick to my price target of $16.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  6. 噫,此匿名用金造架?

    ReplyDelete