Monday, October 22, 2007

美股夢醒 減息照死

上個禮拜五,花旗國道指跌咗三百幾點,今日特區股市開市時應該會跌得幾甘。當然,好多股民都期望祖國股市會繼續升,托吓我哋,因為可以繼續炒「A、H股差價消失概念」。不過恐怕事與願違。孫柏文曾經講過,A、H股差價要完全消失,一定要A、H股互相流通──即係可以攞H股返上海當A股咁賣。

大家可能話:「上個禮拜咪已經話會研究互相流通囉!差價消失概念應該越嚟越強!」係。全中!不過最弊呢個簡單邏輯,連祖國股民都知。差價收縮,對於特區股民等於H股升到A股嘅股價;對於祖國股民嚟講,分分鐘可能係A股跌到落H股嘅股價。

沽壓肯定浪接浪

不過今日市況係點,都好難抵禦花旗國今晚將會有嘅跌勢。重型機械製造商 Caterpillar 喺禮拜五嗰句:「今時今日花旗國貨車運輸業,係50年嚟最差。」市場一定未完全消化。今個禮拜將會有好多上市公司提供(即調低)未來盈利預測,分析員只要將盈利預測 plug落條「估大市走勢」方程式度,沽壓肯定一浪接一浪。樓市泡沫爆破就係咁,我哋特區人民最清楚。上個禮拜五可能就係花旗國股民夢醒日,知道減息照死。

06年7月,我寫過篇題為「花旗國樓市將慘過八萬五」嘅文。大家繼續放長雙眼,睇吓會唔會靈驗。

再講,早排8月17 日,我寫過篇「泡沫爆破後坐監大熱門」嘅文。因為每一次喺花旗國有泡沫爆破,花旗國嘅民粹政客,一定會搵啲「高調,不過無罪人士」嚟祭祭旗、做做 show。上次科網泡沫,就搵咗教人煮餸嘅 Martha Stewart。咁今次樓市爆破,我就喺篇文預測最有機會出事,就會係花旗國最大按揭中介公司Countrywide Financial行政總裁Mozilo。都係嗰句,大家繼續放長雙眼,睇吓會唔會靈驗。

花旗銀行家大鑊

最後,上個禮拜花旗國政府已經「溫馨呼籲」啲銀行,搞個叫MLEC嘅「接收冇交易、冇市價債券」超級基金。一個債王Bill Gross雖然有份參加,不過照樣評為「廢柴」嘅建議,啲銀行睇嚟有排煩。喺八萬五最黑暗嘅日子,特區業主買過好多鑊同好多炭。孫柏文相信鑊同炭喺花旗國將會熱賣,不過買嘅唔會係啲業主,而係啲銀行家。

7 comments:

  1. 減息如打嗎啡針, 其實減又死唔減又死, 不過減就死前可有一剎那興奮...

    今次, 死梗~ 不過, 如果減多半厘, 應該可以為美股帶來三四百點興奮.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 唔減息我地邊度有借口抄到上四萬點.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 柏文兄,又講個別地區因素,又想做大頭燈.

    ReplyDelete
  4. BINGO.

    You got it wrong again. Thanks. HSI up 800 already. You are better than Adam Cheng.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Looks like the anons are all back!

    Welcome welcome.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 柏文兄﹕

    陰謀論, 上週五大户趁壞消息推低個市迫聯儲局月底減息都有可能, 可能有眉目, 唔係邊有咁快止cut? 今日雷賢達寫份財經觀點都有D道理:

    http://hk.biz.yahoo.com/071023/239/2hzpq.html?s=0005.hk

    ReplyDelete
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