Friday, October 26, 2007

打死唔抽阿里巴巴




呢幾日,孫柏文重複又重複咁睇,封面用咗「盲眼橙色」嘅阿里巴巴(1688)招股書。係咁睇嘅原因,就係想領略到究竟做乜生意,可以上市時市盈率超過100倍。我簡直當咗本招股書為驚世秘笈。點知,睇咗四次都完全冇頭緒。簡直係太深、太難明,就連葵花寶典,就算未能完全掌握,都起碼會知欲練神功,必先自宮…唔通…馬主席,為咗100倍PE,實在太大犧牲啦!

講真,有邊個人搞公司,改名時可以連大盜都唔想做,嫌唔夠勁,以個打劫大盜嘅阿里巴巴命名?講多次,阿里巴巴真係100倍上市!俗語有云:「好佬怕爛佬,爛佬就怕潑婦。」今時今日,我哋呢班日日虎視眈眈,想打劫祖國散戶嘅特區大盜,一定要銘記:「散戶怕大盜,大盜就怕阿里巴巴!」100倍哦!

百蚊先買到1蚊利潤

好。入正題。今日,想同大家講點解我唔會抽阿里巴巴。每次有間公司上市進行招股活動,簡單啲嚟講,就係原先股東,想搵啲外邊人做拍檔一齊做生意。如果想入股,大家第一件事多數都會睇睇一股值幾多錢。阿里巴巴,就係間你要用超過100元先至買到1元利潤嘅人。即就算公司盈利完全派息,都係一厘息都冇。大家一定會話:「盈利增長強勁咪得囉!」啱。

再講,大家第二件事都會想知,點解公司股東想搵啲外邊人拍檔。有時,可能原先股東覺得生意已穩定,想追求刺激同更高回報,賣自己手上嘅舊股畀啲追求穩定回報嘅外邊人;又或者原先股東覺得生意其實可以大得多,所以發行新股畀啲追求刺激嘅外邊人,集資發大生意嚟搞。

如增長勁何解賣舊股

所以,就出現咗Alibaba's Paradox。如果阿里巴巴未來增長唔勁,又何德何能市盈率超過100倍上市?不過如果未來增長咁勁,又點解主要賣舊股?未解決呢個Paradox之前,又會有幾多機構投資者上市日接散戶貨?

有啲人話:「思捷(330)邢先生夠賣舊股,咪一樣升!」咁我又要反問:「究竟有幾多人,好似邢生或愛德華八世咁?不愛江山,愛美人。」記得為100倍,馬主席犧牲咗。

最後,我知道會有好多已借爆孖展抽阿里巴巴嘅人,用文字喺網上打我。不過就算打死,都唔抽阿里巴巴!

16 comments:

  1. 多謝pakman!
    我思前想後了好久該不該抽阿里巴巴,遲遲下不了決定。
    今天看了你的文章後,決定──去馬!

    剛好趕得上截飛。吁。

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sure.

    Lets make a bet.

    I bet you lose money on this trade.

    Yes, that includes you not getting any and lose on handling fees.

    Or you get some, but doesn't cover margin loan.

    Odds my girl. Is on my side.

    So... Is this bet on?

    ReplyDelete
  3. 我公司係alibaba 的 free user
    如果佢只係sell佢的核心業務
    唔得囉

    ReplyDelete
  4. 瘋狂時代不參與是笨蛋的行為
    我不想做笨蛋
    對不起,我也落左飛抽了

    ReplyDelete
  5. 我指唔參與是指唔買股票一齊顛
    我都無借 margin 抽alibaba
    只是用少少錢抽幾手

    因為市面有不少賺大錢的機會比借 margin 抽alibaba的機會為高

    將 d 錢賭其他好過。

    ReplyDelete
  6. Pakman:
    如果沒記錯,阿里巴巴的上市日是十一月六日,那是我的幸運日。我想我不會輸錢。

    賭注是什麼?
    :p

    BTW,我不借孖展的啊。你要想清楚。

    ReplyDelete
  7. 賭注是什麼?

    可以Side Bet嗎?

    ReplyDelete
  8. umm... this is getting interesting...

    Let me think about this for a couple of hours...

    Will make a new blog post.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yahoo shot up 7.31% today possibly on analysis like this.

    You're talking about China's eBay and Paypal. P/E of 100? Not too far fetched.

    Yeah what's the bet? heh.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Pakman,

    少有你與思哲的睇法有咁大出入。
    alibaba的賣點,就是那二千五百萬個trustpass客戶。
    你說技術平台,佢真係無咩特色,不過就是靠先來者優勢,加上不少外資真的想入內地,透過阿里巴巴就係最快方法,如果你信世界是平的,那一百倍pe就要比!

    ReplyDelete
  11. 講真我不長線看好AliBaBa, 但IPO是another game.

    in addition to Leona's case,

    How about we make a bet on first group of 恆生一口價 Stagging Financing?

    they load HK$320,000 at a total cost of HK$568 with initial payment of HKD$40,905.38.

    去碼?

    ReplyDelete
  12. 我買孫柏文果邊,馬雲這個傢伙、加不合理的高PE,加業務本身的質素,你買埋我份。

    ReplyDelete
  13. Please leave additional comments on the next blog post!

    Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  14. 阿里巴巴(1688)收39.5元,成為今年以來的「新股王」,散戶每手不計手續費賺約12900元。

    阿里巴巴今早開市報30元,較招股價13.5元升122%,其後回落至28元低位後,隨即再升,全日最高是39.95元,並以39.5元收市,較招股價升192%,全日成交174億元。

    阿里巴巴主席馬雲表示,滿意股價表現。馬雲指出,從今早股價表現,當初招股定價是合理的,他希望可與股東、客戶及員工一起創造更多財富。

    (好彩我都抽到一手!)

    ReplyDelete
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