Friday, October 05, 2007

大藍燈籠高高掛

噚日,孫柏文走去自己嘅blog度,睇吓啲fan屎嘅留言。一睇,就見到(又一個)匿名人士留言,佢話:「一注獨贏沽滙豐,輸到阿媽褲穿窿!」今日,我唔直接去答你,用例子答你。

如果大家睇番股市6月至8月大奇迹日嘅走勢,就會發現股市一路升到7月。不過升市同時,有隻藍籌股一路都唔郁,到7月尾,個市總體已經開始缺乏上升動力,呢隻股票就突然大升。之後個市就開始跌,直至大奇迹日。

至愛去恨佢

咁樣嘅股票就叫「藍燈籠」。以上,6月至8月嗰隻「藍燈籠」,就係恒生(011)。



呢幾日,個市跌咗一千點。不過,有隻唔係點郁嘅藍籌突然大升,就係我嘅至愛(至愛去恨佢),滙豐(005)。大家應該知,我喺滙豐140.6元時,曾經叫過大家「一注獨沽賣滙豐」。所以,有如鬼佬話齋:「If I dislike it at $140.6,I hate it at $150。」I stand by my call。

當然,有啲我好尊敬嘅前輩,話滙豐抵買。理由係市盈率得12.19倍,派息回報有4.55厘。如果你係因呢個邏輯想買滙豐,就不如去花旗國買一樣被次按困擾嘅Washington Mutual。佢嘅市盈率得10.2,回報更有6.24厘。不過事先警告,買咗中招,唔好怪我。

中投大手掃?

如果大家問:「不過呢幾日滙豐真係好勁喎!」噚日,曾淵滄教授猜測,啱啱國慶前夕成立,中國政府嘅投資公司大手掃高滙豐(孫柏文加多句,有咁嘅猜測,應該因為如果只得一個腦細胞嘅理性股民,都唔會現在買滙豐)。所以,除非曾教授嘅猜測係啱,滙豐升,我只可以話,大藍燈籠高高掛。

6 comments:

  1. Pak Man

    It appears that you skip the article of "Boycott Google Adsense". You probably understand that it's not Google's fault but rather that of the faked Golden Fingers.

    They are probably those who follow your advice of 一注獨X。 In expressing their gratitude to you, they become faked Golden Fingers to 喪 click your Adsense.

    Google cannot tell which are genuine and which are faked.

    ReplyDelete
  2. hahaha

    your explanation is the most plausible so far.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 啲人真係擒獸不如,攪完啲祖國佳麗,就連阿婆005都唔放過...

    ReplyDelete
  4. 孫生, 睇怕都係蘋果先容得下你, 只係30歲人, 後生但性格過分自信,大大聲咁,好多分析, 但次次明燈, 我每日睇apple, 都一定睇你篇文, 當笑話咁睇下啦! 同王冠一簡直孖寶.

    其實大家都睇淡, 諗住等爆煲, 不停將87 ,97, 01 既經驗拎出黎, 希望會倒模發生! 大升真的必死無疑咩? 一定要5年, 10 年就發生一次? 美國從1929 到 1997 中間不停發展, 股市表現如何? 香港87 股災後到97 股災, 中間都可以經歷10年升市, 因為香港經濟起飛...中國唔係就係處身呢種環境? 有人亦將中國現在既情況同日本90年泡沬爆破相比! 我只可以話, 翻美國同翻日本既機會均等. 日日一心諗住等佢爆定買長遠好公司, 自己考慮..

    87年股災, hsbc都係$17, 你唔係炒細價股, 今日又如何, $17 今日還叫超低價!

    還有說, HSI PE 現近或預測 20倍, 近bubble 爆水平, 但大家亦可以諗下PE係以profit 計, 只要profit繼續上升, PE 就會回落, 如果估PE 20 就爆, 咁即係大家forecast HSI既公司唔會再有profit growth..

    但大家要記得, 冇錯, 香港公司可能profit 會grow 得比較, 但現在hsi 內有好多中國公司, profit都處於高速增長期, 而且估計HSI再加入既都會係中國公司, 所以PE 預期可以較快回落...所以其實話, HSI 去到30000, 35000其實亦唔係咩一回事!

    總之揀股唔揀市, 唔炒細價股, 唔炒出炒入, 播種, 俾心機有耐性, 必有豐收!

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  5. Washington Mutual果然升2.2%,孫柏文你真叻仔!

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  6. I dunno...

    I got a feeling there will be no interest rate cut in the next Fed meeting.

    The job reports are too strong. Esp the upward revision of Aug jobs from loss of 4000 to net gain of 80K.

    Th last 0.50% cut was heavily influenced by the Aug job report. Now with the revision, the Fed should stop lowering rates.

    ReplyDelete