Thursday, March 06, 2008

白銀莊家 斬淡倉定拋磚引玉?

噚日,孫柏文原本想寫白銀,不過見滙豐出完業績之後啲股東咁開心,所以就講吓我對滙豐嘅見解。今日,講番白銀。當今世上,除咗由我做隊長嘅「白銀(香港)戰隊」之外,各地都有白銀戰隊嘅支部。組織架構有少少似Comintern溝阿蓋達。

呢幾個禮拜,世界各地嘅白銀戰隊,都因銀價節節上升,覺得呢場對抗紙幣狂魔嘅戰役,初見成效。各地人民都開始感覺到打擊通脹嘅迫切性。

大手拋空壓抑價格

不過,正當白銀戰隊士氣高昂之際,我哋不得不承認被一股迷思困擾住。好多白銀戰隊嘅老兵,一向以嚟都相信由各國央行為首嘅紙幣狂魔,長期以人為手段操控金銀價格。

一路壓抑金銀價格,就可以製造假象,令世人覺得冇通脹壓力。

紙幣狂魔壓抑金銀價格嘅手法,就係喺商品期貨市場,大手拋空金銀。只要金、銀買家一路唔會收實貨,每一次都會喺期貨合約到期之前,賣出手頭上嘅金銀。金銀買賣,就會冇金銀實貨交手,變成「公仔紙」遊戲,紙幣狂魔就可以繼續玩弄。今日提供一個圖表。大家睇吓,就會發覺喺眾多種商品市場當中,代表紙幣狂魔進行買賣嘅大莊家,拋空最嚴重就係黃金同白銀。



啲大莊家淨拋空咗嘅白銀,相等於超過全球 120日嘅白銀產量。即係如果買家突然要求啲大莊家交貨,世界各地嘅礦,要用四個月時間,淨係為啲大莊家生產,先至可以唔違約。

買家炒上莊家再拋

就算買家唔攞實貨白銀,囤積咗嘅拋空倉,喺今日嘅價位,啲大莊家已經輸緊好多。平時,佢哋有無窮無盡嘅信貸額,買家一路炒上,佢哋一路再拋。到買家購買力開始轉弱時,佢哋就會走出嚟瘋狂打壓,低位平淡倉。擺出一個「拋磚引玉」陷阱。

不過,今時今日所有金融機構都出現信貸危機。理論上,如果我係一間金融機構控制風險部門嘅主管,我就會每日打電話叫拋空咗白銀嘅同事,即刻斬倉。如果所有大莊家一齊斬倉,大家就會見到空前絕後、「賓虛」式嘅夾淡倉潮。白銀一下,就可以去到我嘅目標價120美元一盎斯。

大家要問自己,今時今日啲大莊家究竟係自斬淡倉,定係拋磚引玉?

8 comments:

  1. Pakman,

    If silver can rise to USD120/oz, what's the price for GOLD then.
    USD 5000 or above???????

    just curious.

    Wu

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Captain Silver,

    I am wondering, since silver is technically over bought right now, but according to your article, are you not expecting a correction in the near term? cuz the scenario now is similar to the early 06.

    And as a former oil analyst, what's your thought on the backwardation with crude price?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  3. If silver can rise to USD120/oz, the price for GOLD will be at least USD$2000 /oz, it is really a resonable price to reflect the true value against USD.

    ReplyDelete
  4. USD will die.

    Only a matter of when.

    ReplyDelete
  5. 剛巧路過,原來閣下又係白銀大好友,幸會幸會。雖然近日銀價稍回,可惜銀根短拙,無法加碼,可惜可惜!

    想借問一吓,除咗kitco外,重有沒有更好買實銀的提議呢?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Pakman, just want to ask when did you get this information? Is this public?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes. It is public information.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  8. Pakman,

    Where can we find this public information please?

    ReplyDelete