Tuesday, June 26, 2007

點解陳同海「辭職」

祖國石油業呢幾日唔知道發生乜事,突然謠言滿天飛,仲有中石化(386)嘅總經理陳同海突然「辭職」。就連中石油(857)嘅管理層,都被傳話被調查。作為一個前石油分析員,真係一個疑團。中石化仲要畀高盛評為「沽售」。

不過講真,碰正鄧小平同志嗰女鄧林,啱啱為六四平反……I mean為六四屠城平反,今日就為大家提供一個祖國石油業大佬可以出事嘅理由。

相 信大家都知道,喺祖國唔鹹唔淡嘅計劃經濟當中,有啲嘢有價格管制,但有啲嘢係冇。石油業最特別嘅地方,就係地下出來嘅原油冇價格管制,國際市價有幾高,祖 國售價就有幾高。不過煉油廠購買原油,跟住提煉成電油、柴油等等嘅石油副產品,啲副產品就有價格管制。國際市價升咗好多,祖國售價會跟唔住。最後如果原油 價格不斷上升,不過副產品售價唔升,煉油廠就出事,用公司錢補貼用戶。同埋因為售價比市價低,一定出現供不應求、嚴重短缺嘅問題。

不過大家 諗吓,如果冇價格管制,管理層要決定將貨賣畀邊個就會好簡單,只要價高者得就可以。不過如果有價格管制,售價比市價低嘅時候,管理層決定賣畀邊個「幸運買 家」,嗰個「幸運買家」就發達,可以賺取差價。問題就係,管理層如何選擇呢個「幸運買家」呢?又或者如果我想做嗰個「幸運買家」,我又可以做啲乜令管理層 揀我?

仲記得89年,孫柏文曾經問過老竇:「乜嘢叫做『官倒』?」

5 comments:

  1. 我諗極都唔明,陳同海下馬同沽出中石化有乜關係

    高盛係高深莫測...
    定係扮高深?

    ReplyDelete
  2. 價格管制只會為特權分子製造貪污的機會。
    記得張五常教授都講過類似的東西。

    ReplyDelete
  3. 在沒有搞清楚呢位陳同志因為什麼而下台(虧空公款-中石化的錢???),先把中石化沽出,是一個保險的做法,更可況高盛在低位入貨,可能只是借這件事而獲利回吐而已。又或者是製造恐慌,壓價收貨的技倆吧。

    ReplyDelete
  4. Honestly, I agree.

    If 陳同志下台's reason is because it sold cheap gas and diesel to friends.

    Sinopec should be a strong buy. Because the only way to cut these corruption is to liberalize price.

    And goldman was cheeky enough to say that price liberalization will be a big boost to Sinopec's share price.

    If this corruption scandal proves true. hahahahah Goldman's sell recommendation would be a really dumbass call.

    ReplyDelete
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