Tuesday, April 15, 2008

羅杰斯:原材料價照升

噚日,相信大家都應該睇到,我哋《蘋果日報》財經版專訪,有「商品大王」之稱、國際大鱷索羅斯前合夥人羅杰斯。

孫柏文有幸係其中一位有份參與訪問嘅同事。雖然訪問當日,我睇落去非常淡定,不過我真係非常緊張,個心扑扑跳。

冇辦法,因為唯一能夠明白我當日心情嘅人,就係嗰啲見到韓國歌手Rain嘅十幾歲o靚妹fan屎。真係有如當年軟硬天師話齋,我差啲就「見到偶像,成個彈起」。

當然,我已經唔係十幾歲。我明白一個「偶像」,可以「遠睇誇啦啦、近睇吹喇叭」,所以令緊張心情更複雜。好彩,訪問完後,我更崇拜佢。

我由知道有份參與訪問個刻起,幾晚瞓唔着覺,不斷反覆咁諗問啲乜呢?

最後,因為我今時今日係一個原材料大好友,好大原因都係因為佢,所以就決定問佢老人家,一啲動搖我對原材料升浪信念嘅問題。好似教徒問教宗一樣。

我問:「好多人話,新興市場對原材料嘅需求增幅,只係因為嗰啲原材料被變成出口貨品,去美國或歐洲嘅市場。一旦因為樓市爆破、信貸危機,嗰啲地方嘅消費者投降,原材料需求就會縮減。原材料價格就會下跌。」

供求失衡價易升難跌

羅杰斯答:「需求縮減就一定。如果皮鞋需求縮減,皮革嘅需求就會下跌。不過,喺我以前本書《Hot Commodities》裏面曾經用過鉛做例子。以前,鉛嘅兩個最大用途,就係用嚟製造有鉛電油同油漆。喺最近幾十年,世界各國已經停售呢兩種產品。你一定會覺得鉛價會大跌。最大兩個用途冇咗喎!仲唔跌?

點知,今時今日鉛價喺歷史高位徘徊。點解?因為鉛礦嘅供應比需求跌得仲快。所以原材料升浪,一定會繼續。」

聽佢講完之後,我就諗,究竟有乜嘢原材料,好似鉛一樣,最大用途突然消失,不過供應比需求跌得快得多。大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎,都知我諗緊嘅原材料就係白銀。所以再次重申一注獨贏買白銀!

6 comments:

  1. I think you talk pretty well in TV! I am looking for job now, do you think traders can earn a lot of money? I just got rejected by a corp bank after interviews, so sad!

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  2. traders can make a lot of money. for sure.

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  3. will be great if we can have link or utube to share!

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  4. hahahaha...

    I will try to ask my company for it.

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  5. yes, please! i'm a big fan of 羅杰斯!! thanks!

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