Wednesday, July 30, 2008

「下一個係」雷曼兄弟

早幾日,孫柏文同大學同學「左翼banker」食晏。大家唔好誤會,我叫佢做「左翼banker」嘅原因,唔係因為佢冇支持計劃經濟,而係因為我哋讀大學時,踢波佢踢左翼(佢速度快、交波準),我踢前鋒(盡量減低累後防輸波嘅可能性)。畢業後,我哋一路都有保持聯絡,不過可能科技太發達,早幾日係十年嚟第一次坐低食晏。

不得不提,左翼banker除咗係我舊同學之外,同時都係 Bear Stearns嘅舊僱員。大家都應該知道,Bear Stearns喺三月冇咗。當時,由百幾美元跌至10美元一股嘅作價,被JP Morgan收購。

賤賣資產有原因

佢現在已離開之前嘅工作單位,準備為新公司效力。不過之前嘅工作單位,就要佢有冷靜期,嗰日食晏,左翼banker就叫冷靜期做gardening leave。雖然一個好似佢咁嘅banker搵埋唔少,不過喺呢個石屎森林,啲番鬼銀行就應該改改用字,冷靜期唔好叫做gardening leave。當種盆栽都未有位,唔好話花園啦。

不過嗰日講到Bear Stearns點解冇咗時,就見到平時冰般冷靜嘅佢,有少許激動。開名鬧花旗國財長Paulson,話佢賤賣資產。原來,有對冲基金肯出幾十蚊一股作價,去收購Bear Stearns,不過統統都被Paulson否決。

左翼banker估Paulson係因為98年,諾貝爾得獎者坐鎮嘅LTCM對冲基金爆煲時,Bear Stearns唔肯出手干預,想市場自由運作,所以先至被針對。佢繼續話,就算賣唔出,就不如一拍兩散,將Bear Stearns清盤,債權人慢慢計算資產價值。

業務萎縮埋伏線


佢話就係咁,所以對Bear Stearns末代CEO係完全滿意。我同佢講:「一拍兩散?之後個末代CEO點樣仲搵到工?投資銀行家為銀行股東?我成日都話,要靠投資銀行搵錢,做客戶、股東都唔得,惟有做員工。」

最後佢話,雷曼兄弟已將業務大幅萎縮,亦都以「下一個係佢哋」嚟形容雷曼兄弟。究竟「下一個係佢哋」點解?大家自己諗諗。

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