Monday, March 23, 2009

歐元必贏美元除非……

某國家的央行印鈔,印完就畀該國政府用,呢個就叫「量化寬鬆政策」。

以前市場有100件產品、100元流通,每件產品價平均1元。央行印多30元畀政府用,產品數目不變,平均價升至1.3元。你個袋裏面嘅一蚊,已買唔到嘢。呢個就係啲人點解驚「量化政策」,點解要拋售該國貨幣。

歐央行唔會印鈔救市

聯儲局印鈔畀花旗國政府,所以啲人就唔要美元。不過有冇央行唔可以印鈔畀政府用?其實係有。因為呢間央行「冇政府管」,起碼冇單一政府可以指指點點,呢間就係歐洲央行。

講話要印鈔救市,南歐嗰班PIGS(Portugal葡萄牙、Italy意大利、Greece希臘、Spain西班牙)要救嘅迫切性,肯定高過花旗國。

不過歐央行係唔可以印鈔買成員國嘅國債,因為買一個國家嘅債,其他成員國一定要佢買埋其他歐國國債。鐵索連舟,政治成本太高。

只要市場覺得聯儲局會「量化」而歐央行唔會,歐元必贏美元,歐元必繼續升。

孫柏文諗諗吓,發現歐元瓦解嘅路線圖。

今年初唔少人開始問,一旦歐洲全面被海嘯冲擊,歐元會唔會瓦解?如果會,路線圖係點?

要瓦解,先要有國家退出。大家一定以為最想退出係啲想自己印鈔「量化」嘅國家,咁諗就大錯特錯。因為呢啲國家已享受咗太耐歐元嘅低息,一旦退出,新貨幣利息即刻飛升。要退一定係強勢退出。

一印鈔歐元區即散


咁歐元區最會強勢退出嘅肯定係德國。如果歐洲啲弱勢國,成功迫到歐央行印鈔買各弱勢國嘅國債,德國退出指日可待。理由係德國以前試過因通脹令希特拉上台,所以非常恐懼通脹。

如果德國退出,歐元就……

所以大家一定要睇實究竟歐央行有冇印鈔舉動,因為唔似美元,歐央行一印「量化」,歐元就玩完。

13 comments:

  1. 聽講日本晨早就試過你所謂的量化寬鬆貨幣政策,對嗎?

    咁日本又有無出現超級通脹,日圓又有無大幅貶值呢?

    想想看!

    ReplyDelete
  2. 分析得好好。

    小弟估德國退出歐羅區嘅機會好微,理由係當初攪歐羅區就係為咗歐盟一體化,同埋歐洲各國間嘅自由貿易。攪得咁辛苦冇理由家下就話要退出卦?

    反而美國財長如果今晚公布嘅救毒資產方案獲得市場嘅信心,咁樣美元可能會反高潮升番上嚟都唔定。At least 兌日圓呢 pair 家下已經做番 97。

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  3. SecretadmirerofericaMon Mar 23, 11:59:00 pm GMT+8

    "咁日本又有無出現超級通脹,日圓又有無大幅貶值呢?"

    Inflation did not occur as the QE was financed by the rich citizens.

    Weakened dollars and/or hyperinflation are more likely than not to occur in the States, as the citizens are in poverty, if not bankruptcy. The debtors / government bond holders suffer more anyway.

    Hyperinflation, if it occurs, will be a global phenomenon, not a containable problem limited to a few nations.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 這麼好的貼,竟然沒有人頂,我來頂一個.

    大家也來幫我頂一下哦.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "erica"?哈哈!

    好似中咗毒或被洗腦一樣,印銀紙就咁咁咁咁咁喎。

    依家好似係CREDIT CRUNCH喎!你估係打仗無啦啦咁大量印銀紙呀!

    ReplyDelete
  6. 雖然個貨幣基礎係大咗,加埋個乘數效應,理論上會對信貨增長有所幫助,但要回復到制刺激物價上升重有很長很長的路要走。

    再想想!

    ReplyDelete
  7. 有咁多時間不如去溝吓黎三萬,你滿臉鬍子可能有SELLING POINT喎!

    想多想!

    ReplyDelete
  8. "咁日本又有無出現超級通脹,日圓又有無大幅貶值呢?"

    QE is done in Japan by purchase bad assets of banks, which is in effect dress-up of their balance sheet rather than generating goods/services purchase. However, QE in US will give money to gov, which certainly generate production activities.....

    Also, the unrealized inflation in Japan is also probably due to the carry-trade of yen, which reduce the effective money supply inside Japan....

    ReplyDelete
  9. So much emphasis on "想!"

    Too bad I am the scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz.

    ReplyDelete
  10. You use your ass to think, don't you? So being a scarecrow is not a worry!

    ReplyDelete
  11. May I refer to the anon above to this previously stated policy...

    http://phatdat.blogspot.com/2007/04/new-policy-on-phatdat.html

    ReplyDelete
  12. Oh! Just Joking....

    My apology.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Then... Start kissing where I think.

    ReplyDelete