Thursday, December 06, 2007

冇料到的保爾森

相信大家都知,次按問題一路爆緊煲。孫柏文講都講咗成年,真係有如百集長劇。咁基本上,次按或其衍生出來嘅信貸危機,就係一班人或機構借咗太多錢。借錢畀收入卑微嘅人,唔等於好危險,唔好借咁多就得。反轉頭,借錢畀薪高糧準嘅人,唔等於好安全,借太多一樣出事。

衰在兩年後跳息

喺呢個信貸風暴當中,最能代表胡亂借貸風氣,就肯定係一種叫做「還還吓利息會跳高嘅按揭」adjustable rate mortgage(ARM)。咁ARM按揭同其他次按一樣出事,所以花旗國財長保爾森,呢幾日嚟就不斷吹風話將會有計劃去救佢哋。孫柏文可以話,保爾森嘅計劃冇料到。

當然,要明點解計劃冇料到,就要知道ARM按揭係乜。

例如,有個人以零首期,做30萬美元按揭去買樓。頭兩年利息超低,兩年之後利息就會跳上。

07年前,花旗國樓市到達高峯時,就係有好多人憑呢啲ARM按揭買樓自住或投資。因為ARM按揭利息,普遍都會喺兩年之後跳上,而06年又係貸款狂熱嘅高峯期,所以08年亦將會係利息跳上嘅高峯期。

對於借款人嚟講,利息跳上嘅最大問題,就係兩年前以超低息借錢嘅人,其實已經覺得頭兩年嘅還款額非常吃力。仲話利息要跳上?肯定出現斷供潮。

咁對於放款人嚟講,斷供其實可以唔係問題。只要本身層樓繼續升值。斷供咪將層樓銀主拍賣,放款人分分鐘執多筆。現在保爾森要出手嘅原因,就係斷供潮遇上樓價跌。到時已經放款嘅人,就會面對嚴重虧損,如果係銀行甚至可能會執笠,危害銀行體制穩健。

先分類再揀嚟救

大家可能會問:「點救?」
首先,保爾森吹風話將做咗ARM按揭嘅人分為四大類:
1.利息跳上,還款冇問題嘅人。(即係毋須要救)
2.利息就算唔跳上,都還唔到嘅人。(即係毋須要救)
3.利息跳上時,能夠轉按嘅人。(即係毋須要救)
4.利息跳上前還款冇問題,利息跳上後就還唔到嘅人。(保爾森想救)

多都唔講,保爾森會點界定一個人為第四類呢?喺第一同第三類人當中,有幾難先可假扮第四類呢?

聽日,我就假設保爾森搵到真係第四類嘅人。再插保爾森個拯救計劃。

7 comments:

  1. 柏文兄:
    可唔可以講啲關於Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX)嘅嘢聽吓?
    我嘅母公司係出年要行。
    係邊道可以搵到呢啲相關資料。
    謝!

    另外,你出年會唔會幫凌尉雲選立法會?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sure...

    But i will bore everyone to death about the details.

    However, the effect of SarBox I can talk about.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  3. 栢兄:

    我就好簡單,一個人名下如果連自住有三個未供滿物業,可視為地產炒手(flipper),唔使救~~~~~~!:P

    Daniel.

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  4. This plan's significance,

    is that the government has now assumed the role of contract breaker.

    Just like the Bank of England vowing never to help banks that is managed poorly AND THEN REVERSING COURSE.

    It is now an eventuality that the mortgage debt will be liquefied by the US government.

    It is then my friend, you will see the US dollar really tank.

    ReplyDelete
  5. The role of the Treasury of state is to ensure the functioning of the market and to intervene if there is market failure. Market failure is in a sense of dried-up in liquidity in the credit market. To Paulson, I think he will not hesitate to let the insolvent agents to succumb to the rule of capitalism: bankruptcy. As to the current adjustment process of the property market, the illiquid issue only further wreaks havoc on it. This is what he should do and can do to alleviate the current situation.

    ReplyDelete
  6. To yuen...

    And therefore he comes up with a plan that delivers the final blow to securitization. hahahahha

    With all these "renegotiations", I am so glad that all those folks with their mathematical models have no idea how to price all those MBS and CDOs ho ho ho

    Yup. Good job Hank!

    ReplyDelete