Thursday, September 18, 2008

如何逼政府救你

幾年前,孫柏文雙失年代告終,返工做低級職員。當年因為對上班文化唔熟悉,所以對同事講嘅一句說話,摸不着頭腦,佢哋好多時都會話:「放假仲辛苦過返工。」呢個周末,作為一個財經口水佬,我卒之領略到箇中真諦。

講真,上個禮拜我都係買政府會出手搞掂雷曼兄弟。就算唔會收歸國有,都會出手保證或補貼雷曼兄弟啲爛資產,跟住就搵人接手。上次Bear Stearns都係咁,冇理由今次唔係。點知,真係唔係。問題就係點解上次救,今次唔救?究竟Bear Stearns同雷曼兄弟嘅分別喺邊?

因為《金手指》嘅讀者群當中有好多金融機構管理層,所以不如實際啲問,究竟嗰兩間投資銀行嘅管理層,做過啲乜令到有呢個分別。即係如果你係銀行話事人,點樣逼政府救你。

四大情況政府必救

第一,搞大佢。唔係淨係危害自己間行,一定要危害整個世界嘅金融業。廢廢哋係唔足夠,只摧毀自己間行嘅話,就會冇人救你。一定要定喺個能夠摧毀全球金融業嘅位,一定要廢到累街坊。

第二,搞唔得大,就要爆先。如果雷曼爆先過Bear Stearns,可能結果已掉轉。

第三,一定要挾持重要對手做人質。Bear Stearns有9萬億美元衍生工具交易,淨係JP Morgan一個對手,已佔四成。所以當時啲人話JP Morgan救Bear Stearns,其實係救自己。

第四,一定要危害到大眾市民每日嘅經濟活動。按揭、私人貸款、信用卡財務very good。借錢畀甲級寫字樓發展商,冇咁有用。

AIG學以致用


根據以上四個教訓,如果你真係一個金融機構管理層,咁就要好好學習。因為已經有金融機構學以致用,佢就係AIG。

講真,AIG真係好似一個幼稚園老師,身上綁起炸藥,走入充滿小朋友嘅班房,用電話同世界各國嘅父母講數。大家應該有心理準備,政府唔救AIG,班小朋友會一鑊熟。

10 comments:

  1. 今日見到你上電視, 完來你咁好笑既
    哈哈

    ReplyDelete
  2. 我想問問...
    政府FORCE 我地去供MPF,當成個市場出現左問題....
    政府係咪要負上責任?
    我地係咪可以取消左強積金依個制度?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yo imagineer...

    Which channel did you watch?

    yo inner wheel.

    "...我地係咪可以取消左強積金依個制度?..." ho ho ho i wish. There would be momentum.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 哈哈~
    都想知道有冇其他人係咁想呢..

    剛剛係FB 開左個GROUP..
    (唔供"強輸金")
    有時間希望你可以入
    去睇睇俾下意見
    睇下D野有冇寫錯R^^""

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mr. Sui, u seems copied from John F. Mauldin....-.-"


    "The lesson from the Bear Stearns' bailout -- $29 Billion in Federal Reserve bad paper guarantees -- are quite stark:

    Go Big: Don't just risk your company, risk the entire world of Finance. Modest incompetence is insufficient -- if you merely destroy your own company, you won't get rescued. You have to threaten to bring down the entire global financial system. The fear and disruption caused by a Bear collapse is why it was saved. (AIG has the right idea on this)

    If you cant Go Big, Go First: Had Lehman collapsed before Bear, then the same fear and loathing of the impact to the system might have worked to their advantage. But having been through this once before, the sting is somewhat lessened -- especially for a smaller, lets interconnected firm like LEH.


    Threaten your counter-parties: Bear Stearns had about 9 trillion in its derivatives book, of which 40% was held by JPMorgan (JPM). Some people have argued that the Bear bailout was actually a preventative rescue of JPMorgan. Its a good strategy if your goal is a bailout -- risk bringing down someone much bigger than yourself.


    Risk an important part of the economy: If your book of derivatives is limited to some obscure and irrelevant portion of the economy, you will not get saved. On the other hand, if Mortgages are important, credit cards and auto loans are too. Securitized widget inventory is not.


    Balance Sheets Matter: Focus on the media, complain about short sellers, obsess about PR. These are the hallmarks of a failing strategy -- and a grand waste of time. Why? Its call insolvency. ALL THAT MATTERS IS THE FIRMS' BALANCE SHEET. Lehman's liabilities exceed its assets, and they are now toast. Merrill Lynch got a lot of the junk off of its books, and got a takeover at 70% premium to its closing price. And Credit Suisse, who dumped much of its bad paper many quarters ago, is in a better tactical position than most of its peers.


    Unintended Consequences lurk everywhere: When the Fed opened up the liquidity spigots via its alphabet soup of lending facilities, the fear was of the inflationary impacts. But the bigger issue should have been Complacency. The Dick Fulds of the world said after Bear, these new facilities "put the liquidity issue to rest." Lehman got complacent once liquidity was no longer an issue -- perhaps they acted to slowly to resolve their insolvency issue in time. "

    ReplyDelete
  6. 我想問
    而家傳緊美國政府整緊個垃圾堆填區出黎
    咁係咪就咁丟晒D垃圾入去就無事架啦?

    如果咁做既後果只係美國國債又升多唔知幾多倍,而可以令D銀行唔駛要撇帳的話,咁我又入市啦!

    美國又唔會破產既.....

    ReplyDelete
  7. 柏文兄:

    咁咪叫竊鉤者誅,竊國者侯囉,挑!:P

    Daniel.

    ReplyDelete
  8. To the anon who alleged plagiarism,

    hahahah

    I did not copy from Mauldin, if I did, instead of 700 words, it will be a 3000 words article.

    But he is great.

    I copied from big picture blog. Check it out. It is a blast to read!

    And its Shuen not Siu, know the person's name before you point fingers hor hor hor

    ReplyDelete
  9. I can do that, translating an English blog to Cantonese... hahaha!

    ReplyDelete
  10. point fingers to gold finger

    hor hor hor!

    Another Anon

    ReplyDelete