Friday, September 12, 2008

又有大茶飯Case Study

三日前,標普宣佈會喺佢哋嘅標普500指數,剔除周末被收歸國有嘅房貸美同房利美,前日生效。取而代之有兩家新公司,不過就要今日先至生效。即係呢兩日嚟,大家睇嘅係標普498指數。

其實,喺呢啲跌市大時代,往往都會出現指數唔夠公司嘅情況。今次已經算好,只係兩日唔夠數,記得千禧年時,dot com出現倒閉潮,納斯100指數,長期都維持「納斯九十幾指數」。

債價下跌保險要賠

大家要記得,花旗國財長保爾森,話到明兩房唔倒閉,咁點解又會被人郁出指數?睇番標普公司嘅新聞稿,剔除嘅理由係因兩房嘅市值不足,達唔到要有50億美元市值嘅要求。宣佈剔除當日,房利美市值 10億美元,而房貸美就6億美元,非常合理,履行法治精神。

不過,經過多個月嘅跌市,標普500指數中已有過百間公司,市值唔過50億。如果用「剔除兩房日」嘅收市價計算,標普又堅定執行50億美元市值要求。標普500指數?就變成「標普381指數」。跌市真難搞。

講起兩房,原來又有投資銀行家靠今次危機食大茶飯,搵客戶笨。

事緣禮拜一,有個國際衍生工具仲裁機構,喺完全冇成員反對之下,宣佈兩房被收歸國有,已經滿足咗要求,所以被稱為「倒閉咗」。而所有有關「保險」,亦要賠款。

大家都知,今時今日金融市場乜都可以「買保險」。而嗰班投資銀行家,就賣咗好多保障「一旦兩房倒閉,而令兩房債券價格有負面影響」嘅保險。即係如果兩房倒閉,令兩房債價下跌,保險就會賠。

等同國債更添安全


聽聞賣得最多,就係舊年尾今年頭。呢個絕對理所當然,廣告都話,要搵錢就要細心聆聽客戶需要,客戶擔心兩房出事,啲投資銀行家咪賣啲滿足佢哋需要嘅產品。

大家可能會問:「冇成員反對?保險賠得咁大方?賣呢啲債券保險嘅投資銀行唔通有病?」絕對冇病。個個都知,一旦兩房出事,政府一定會收歸國有。如果係咁,兩房債券等同於花旗國國債,等於安全咗好多,個價必升。

咁嘅情況下,保險又使乜賠?幾勁,有如沙漠賣雨傘!唔怪得啲private wealth management banker可以搵咁多。

6 comments:

  1. 不過股價???

    呢個世界真唔公平....
    又唔準人沽空....

    離譜!!!
    還我D草呀!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. yup...

    Private bankers really believe there is one born every minute hor hor hor

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  3. 想問孫柏文一個問題,如果AIG倒閉呢個世界會點。如果我的強積金用AIA,會唔會無晒?

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  4. Your money in MPF is still your money.

    They are only manager.

    But AIG... damn...

    I swear, the 1997 Indonesian scenario will happen to USA of 08. The biggest financial institutions are ALL nationalised.

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  5. thx.

    o甘我在AIA D人壽保險呢,又會唔會無晒?

    ReplyDelete
  6. umm...

    I dunno about that one.

    But you are locked in as long as there is no "material change"...

    But AIG is certainly looking like its going down a very steep downward spiral.

    AIG is not a bank, so there is a lot of uncertainty whether they will be saved.

    And even if they are saved. How? Who will lose?

    ReplyDelete