Wednesday, August 20, 2008

商品交易所呃人?

白銀嘅價錢喺對上兩個禮拜大幅下跌,相信大家都知道。如果孫柏文問大家知唔知銀價點解會咁跌,相信大家一定會答:「任何一樣嘢嘅價錢郁,都只不過反映供求關係。價錢升,一係供應少咗,一係就需求多咗,價錢跌就掉番轉。」

如果你咁樣答,我就要繼續追問:「咁點解白銀嘅價錢大跌,不過全世界想買白銀嘅人,又因為白銀短缺而買唔到?」呢個就係個謎團。

一樣嘢短缺,即係市價未能反映供求,市價只需要上升,短缺就會消失。

需求增紙銀價竟跌

不過早幾個月前,我已經開始聽到喺外國銀條、銀幣嘅供應出現問題,就連已經買咗嘅人,去到打銀幣嘅地方收貨,都會面對供應商好多藉口,攞唔到貨。不過就算有以上嘅情況,銀價都居然可以由19美元一盎斯,跌到12美元,買咗白銀嘅人個個都問:「究竟搞乜嘢呀?」

當一樣嘢嘅價錢下跌,不過又同時出現短缺,唯一嘅解釋,就係短缺嘅嘢同嗰一件有「市價」嘅嘢其實係唔同,唔係同一樣嘢。

以「銀價」為例,嗰個不斷在跳動嘅數目字,就係反映喺倫敦、紐約商品交易所嘅價格,因為絕大部份嘅參與者,都唔會做交收,分分鐘連條銀條都未見過,所以嗰個「銀價」其實係「紙銀價」。

咁如果喺商品交易所買賣嘅「銀」係「紙銀」。嗰啲買銀條、銀幣嘅人又買緊乜?佢哋就係買實貨,買「實銀」。

穩定溢價不再


咁「實銀」出現短缺,價錢應該上升,咁有冇升先?

我只可以話,以前「實銀價」比「紙銀價」有一個非常之穩定嘅溢價,去彌補運輸等成本,溢價大約1美元一盎斯左右。到上個禮拜五,「紙銀價」去到12美元時,有啲零售點嘅「實銀價」都維持喺16美元以上。

大家唔係蠢才,都知我哋將「紙銀」當成白銀嘅原因,就係因為可以向啲喺商品交易所嘅賣家攞「實銀」貨。

現在「實銀」同「紙銀」有咁大分別時,應該有好多人會進行套戥,應該將「紙銀價」推高。不過一旦攞「實銀」貨呢個動作出現問題,商品交易所嘅「紙銀」就只會變成「紙」。

原本想叫大家再買「實銀」,不過現在短缺。

5 comments:

  1. O...咁即係紙銀而家都變左同美元一樣與金銀脫鈎? 我睇左貨幣戰爭之後都開始明白你既觀點。

    ReplyDelete
  2. 脫鈎...

    Yes, thats whats happening.

    Good choice of word.

    Paper silver is ultimately currency backed with silver. And they can break the peg.

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  3. i read your piece on apple and checked kitco immediately, the premium for the bars ain't that significant compare to the past, but they do have a note mentioning about huge demand and possible of late delivery. and they put a note in red saying "Kitco currently has numerous physical gold, silver, and platinum coin and bar items in stock, available for immediate delivery. Please call for more information."

    other than those 2 notes, the selling to and buying from kitco price seem normal

    ReplyDelete
  4. GOLD APEX PRECIOUS METAL (H.K) LTD
    好似有白銀實貨賣
    地址:弥敦道786号中兴商业大厦6楼
    電話:27876377

    ReplyDelete
  5. in fact.

    What anon described, is exactly the failure of paper silver being delivered into physical silver at Kitco.

    Basically kitco is saying, "give us your money, but I don't know when I will give you any silver, maybe not now, maybe not ever."

    ReplyDelete