Wednesday, August 27, 2008

FBI早知有次按問題


噚日,孫柏文睇《洛杉磯時報》見到有篇報道,能夠推翻我一路以嚟話冇任何花旗國政府機構,當年睇到會爆發次按問題。

大家都知道次按問題嘅核心,就係有一班天才投資銀行家,發現債券信貸評級嘅漏洞,推出證券化去屈機賺錢。喺投資銀行家嘅證券化屈機之下,更差嘅借款人,都可以得到AAA最高信貸評級。

不過就算有屈機嘅方法,最終都要有人借錢先至得,所以就出現咗好多按揭中介人 mortgage brokers,做駁艇搵客。

太易借錢置業

呢啲駁艇,以無所不用其極嘅方法,搵人借錢。結果就係好多完全唔應該借錢嘅人,借錢做按揭買樓。

當年,呢啲唔應該借錢嘅人都買到樓時,仲要有社會運動家行出嚟,狂讚證券化能令更多人置業安居。有社會運動家、投資銀行家、信貸評級機構護航之下,信貸泡沫就此形成。

當有以上提過咁神聖嘅組合,要反對按揭中介人搵客,絕對唔係一個想保住自己飯碗嘅官僚能夠做得到。

不過,原來當年其實係有政府機構,早就知會有次按問題,呢個政府機構就係聯邦調查局FBI(即係講外星人來到地球嘅《X-Files》電視劇裏面,嗰兩個探員所屬機構)。

04年,有個叫做Chris Swecker嘅FBI探員,見到按揭中介人好多不良放債手法,走出嚟話:「呢個問題絕對可以變成大鑊嘢。不過大家唔使驚!我相信我哋能夠阻止問題,演變到90年代初銀行倒閉潮咁嚴重。」歷史當然證明佢錯咗。Swecker探員自己都喺06年退休。

查按揭騙案探員大減


原來喺 90年代初,FBI有1000個探員,專門負責調查按揭詐騙案。到07年得番100個。想查,都有心無力。

講真,《X-Files》裏面都有經常講話啲探員開始查到會影響既得利益集團嘅嘢,都會畀人噤住。

就算撇除陰謀論,純粹從公共開支角度嚟睇,FBI當年有更加切身嘅問題需要解決。樓市未爆,未有人輸錢,點查?查咗都冇人多謝你。

仲有,要明白點解FBI郁唔到以投資銀行為首嘅放債組織,睇吓特區就知道。特區警察惡唔惡?惡。不過惡唔惡得過金融管理局總裁任志剛?咪就係囉。

4 comments:

  1. 咁咪即係是福不是禍,是禍擋不過,有早知都要乞兒啦

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  2. 現在香港夠行同一條路.....

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  3. Securitization...

    Like communism, definitely sounds good on paper.

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