Monday, June 16, 2008

靠投資銀行搵錢要……

上個禮拜,好多傳言話有事嘅投資銀行雷曼兄弟,卒之成功集資60億美元,推高自己手上嘅淨資產同現金。最勁係,佢哋原先對股價有折扣嘅批股活動,最後因股價下挫,買家要出溢價,都可以成功,唔好話啲sales唔勁。

佢哋今晚公佈業績,如無意外,將會蝕一早已唱通街嘅28億美元。當然,上任冇一年嘅雷曼財務總監,就因為上個禮拜四被公司管理層降級,無緣參與業績公佈。

孫柏文呢幾日對住雷曼嗰張,由80元跌到廿幾元嘅一年期股價走勢圖,諗咗好多嘢。究竟投資銀行嘅出現,邊個人有着數、搵到錢?

如果睇股價圖,好容易覺得,投資銀行唔係啲股東有着數。不過就算唔睇股價圖,大家只要問自己,如果有壇生意,你出本金後做30倍槓桿,回報只係本金嘅百分之廿幾,你會入股做股東咩?

你可能話:「做30 倍槓桿,廿幾巴仙回報,只要夠穩陣,冇問題!例如有兩種風險一樣嘅投資項目,不過有回報差別,就可以一拋空另一買入做套戥。」我知!例如搵兩種都係風險評級AAA嘅債券!最弊,現在唯一有用嘅AAA標籤,就係擺喺電視機遙遠控制裏面嘅電芯。做投行股東?好辛苦。

投行僅員工搵到錢

靠投行搵錢,做員工先得。每年大家聽到啲幾十個月花紅,全部都係投行員工攞。仲有,做員工只需求神拜佛,到年尾冇事,現金花紅就可以穩袋。

你可能話:「驚員工只望年尾冇事,咪發認股權畀佢哋,等佢哋同股東同一條船。」理論上係。不過,如果走火入魔、濫發認股權,最後就會攤薄股權,除非積極回購。

後果係點?《紐約時報》話,雷曼兄弟對上13季,盈利總和係119億美元,但就用咗118億美元回購公司股份,股份總和仲有升無減。知道點解啲花旗國公司員工,咁抗拒修訂認股權會計上嘅成本啦!

3 comments:

  1. 始終都是有專業智識的人才可以搵到那些錢.

    但絕大部份人是沒有的.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 專業智識?

    Like those people who designed SIV and MBS?

    hahhahahaha

    yup. it was 專業... but whether it is 智識, I dunno.

    But I give one thing to ibankers. They do work exceptionally hard.

    ReplyDelete
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