Wednesday, June 25, 2008

中海油嘅油 香港已用晒

早幾日,喺沙地阿拉伯舉行嘅巨型石油大派對,卒之曲終人散。除咗燃燒好多飛機油之外,唯一「成果」就係沙地政府應承增加石油產量。加幾多?喺呢個每日用8600萬桶石油嘅世界,增加20萬桶。大家可以自己去計算個百分比。

以前孫柏文做石油股分析員時,曾經撰寫過一個研究報告,就係講喺世界上,特別喺啲OPEC油組國家裏面,究竟有幾多剩餘未使用嘅可生產量。幾年前要研究嘅原因,就係如果油價由當時40美元一桶,直線飆升。美帝政府為首嘅西方世界發爛,用盡卑劣手法去迫使油組國家增產,究竟即時可以增加幾多供應。

油國生產量已近頂

其實呢幾年嚟,油組每次話「會增產」,增加嘅只係油組畀每個成員國嘅生產配額。不過事實上,每個油組成員喺幾年前,已經冇理個配額。個個都有幾多可生產量,就生產幾多石油。除咗一個國家之外,完全冇剩餘可生產量。呢個國家就係沙地,所以如果任何一個非沙地嘅油組成員話「會增產」,基本上佢哋係喺到膠嗡。

當時沙地嘅可生產量係每日1000萬桶石油,用咗90%。跟住增產到950萬桶石油,而石油大派對之後,就話會增產到每日970萬桶。剩番30萬桶士啤。雖然,沙地政府話去到出年年尾,佢哋能將可生產量推到每日1250萬桶石油。我絕對相信德州專做能源項目生意嘅投資銀行Simmons & Company,一路以來嘅講法,沙地政府話「會增產」又係膠嗡。

增需求不如減消耗

講真,當地球上60億人,每日要搵方法去分配 8600萬桶石油,你覺得現價高都只不過係以前太平。再講,特區人民平均每人耗油量,係大陸13億同胞嘅8倍。我哋特區耗油量,就係大約每日30幾萬桶。 30幾萬桶即係幾多?中海油(883)嘅生產量,都係30幾萬桶一日。一個700萬人香港已經用晒中海油嘅產量,13億人又會點?

老土都要講句,想增加供應,減低需求消耗,「價太高問題」嘅最好解決方法,就係供應商落袋同消費者自己出錢面對嘅價格持續「太高」。特區減油稅,真係得孫柏文反對?

13 comments:

  1. "一個700萬人香港已經用晒中海油嘅產量"

    hard to believe! can you double check?

    ReplyDelete
  2. basically agree with you, no subsidy should be provided by the government to distort the market efficiency.
    but I would like to ask you a question which i don't really understand - is there any so called "collaboration" in setting price among the few companies. forgotten the proper name - was it oligopoly , something like that - market with only a few competitors, so there is some problem, isn't? If so, it there anyway to solve it as a government? I personally feel that the competition among telcoms here in HK is good enough - one can't always say why not cheaper, as if free use of surfing the net on the phone is a "right", otherwise, it is not capitalism anymore, it is communism. Our job is to ensure a free market, I think but regarding what is the right among of competition, please enlight me, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. sorry, right "amount" not "among"

    ReplyDelete
  4. I dont get it why the 'efficient market' is applied by people everywhere,I think it could be an ultimate goal to be efficient,but then the existence of the crude oil futures market has made this market inefficient already.
    Cos dont talk abt oligopoly in retail crude market,even though for crude futures market,due to its high cost to enter (almost like HKD120,000 margin per contract),only 'some' people(speculators actually) can take part in it,but it leads the prices in the world.

    And also,let the high crude price be,there is no good substitue in the world can replace crude,if govnt dont do something,chaos will soon come up,the society will become more inefficient.

    ReplyDelete
  5. also,I do agree the market will adjust itself to reach equilibrium,people are incapable of inventing safe and good substitute for crude,then war is the best way to make the world equilibrium.but then war will ruin the world,and makes the world become inefficient,anyway,the world will become efficient free market ond day,lol.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 0係Money Cafe 度孫兄你咪講過香港都冇地方做期貨市場0既交收0既? 但係今日報紙你都有睇到ga la, 吹到好似好行咁. 咁即係話, 只有兩個可能啦, 一係就係班搞手係膠膠地, 咩地方做交收都未諗就吹左出黎先. 如果真係班搞手膠, 就即係咩事都冇發生過啦. 一係就係已經同中央0係檯底講掂數,講好左個保稅區0係邊度. 但係我就有個問題. 如果真係中央意思and/or 已經同中央講掂數, Why Hong Kong, but not Shanghai? 上海唔係仲多地過香港咩? 點解要0係香港呢個睇落完全無地方交收0既地方搞呢? 又係政治因素? 團派想打擊上海幫? 孫兄你又點睇?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear VC,

    Yes. Its been tripled checked prior to publishing.

    Dear anon (RE: retail petrol),

    The problem with HK petrol stations is the mechanism with which the HK govt leases the land.

    1. not enough land
    2. easy to be bought up by a few players.
    3. You can't exactly open a new petrol station with just a Business Registration

    Now, having identified the source of the potential anticompetitiveness, what law does our govt propose? One that excludes such govt action.

    Thats why anyone supporting the govt law is STUPID. Or simply for self interest such as the (heavily protected) lawyers.

    Dear Jim Jim,

    Speculators are not to be blamed for the high prices. They eventually have to sell back all the oil they bought. It is not an easy thing to store, oil...

    As I have said before

    global daily consumption is 86m Barrel.

    An HK person consumes 8x more than Mainland cousin.

    Mainland cousin consumes 7.5m barrels a day now.

    So if mainland catches up to HK
    it will mean 7.5x8 = 60m barrel a day.

    Where are the oil going to be coming from? Yes $300 a barrel.

    Dear Taron,

    As for a commodities exchange, Ronald Arculli (drafter of the anticompetition law) will do everything to kill this.

    If not, see the HKEx (388)) share price fall fall fall fall

    ReplyDelete
  8. why.....?....
    why speculators have to sell back all the oil they bought....?...
    they buy futures contracts only..they keep buying up the crude futures,they roll their positions from month to month,the futures market leads the WTI spot...
    American big bosses can control the crude prices...by the time they think they should push the price down to take profit,many countries hav collapsed..if their country dont do something...

    ReplyDelete
  9. 1 barrel of oil = 158.987295 liters,
    i.e. 每日約20人用一桶! 每人用8L!

    What's In A Barrel of Oil?

    Luckily I'm not Global-Warming-Phobia.

    Agree "覺得現價高都只不過係以前太平"

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dear Jim Jim,

    When speculators "roll over" their contracts. It involves SELLING the oil back to the market.

    Futures market does not "lead" the spot market. Future markets merely tries to predict the spot market of the future. Demand and supply of the PHYSICAL STUFF controls the spot market. Futures market tires to predict the futre demand and supply.

    Dear VC,

    8L per HK person per day sounds a lot.

    But you have to include Chep Lap Kok. Our airport and the planes burns ALOT of oil. ALOT.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete