Tuesday, November 20, 2007

中央投降 重開直通車?

唔知大家有冇好似孫柏文以前做分析員咁,喺返工嘅單位試過去開啲「落實計劃方向」會。

開會時,聽到高層話:「個計劃我哋要有咁北,去咁北!」
自己心裏第一個反應係:「唔係嘛……去北死緊。一定要向南走!呢個會都係遊吓夢算。」
點知發發吓白日夢,高層突然問:「孫柏文!落實計劃向北走,有冇方案?」

我作為一個忠心耿耿嘅員工,當然提供一個有咁激得咁激向北走嘅方案。點知,有時個高層聽完我講之後,真係揀咗我嘅方案。

走激咗 返轉頭

大家可能會問:「明知向南走先啱,提供個向北走方案都話忠心耿耿?」

冇錯!因為正當公司個計劃有咁快得咁快向北走,就會好快出事。之後物極必反,公司投降,個計劃向南走,欣欣向榮。我仲唔係公司忠臣?哈!哈!

今日同大家分享呢個經驗,係因為我覺得喺「港股直通車」議題上,大陸官僚架構中,出現咗個好似我咁嘅官員。

「港股直通車」政策,喺中央官僚中一定分開「支持」同「反對」呢兩大陣營。

咁因為早前香港股民炒高港股,諗住生擒大陸散戶,令反對「港股直通車」嘅陣營佔盡上風。點知反對陣營中,有個好似我咁嘅自由市場信徒。

反對陣營高官:「大陸資金不可外洩炒港股,你有何方案?」
類似孫柏文嘅小馬鈴薯:「聽聞好多人喺深圳攞現鈔去香港炒股,不如禁制啲人喺深圳攞現鈔。」高官:「不會擾民嗎?」
小馬鈴薯:「為求達到政治目的,一定要有決心!」高官:「對。」

限錢 係先兆

就係咁,中央已成功令深圳嘅千幾萬個市民,成為最想盡快落實「港股直通車」嘅人。因為一落實,最起碼提款機有錢攞,唔使再煩。講真,出到一刀切唔畀人攞現鈔,去對付港股炒風,smells like desperation。(嗅到有陣頑固、無計可施、垂死掙扎嘅氣味。)

如果睇番04年初,當時中央政府做宏調亦都有同樣情況。去到4月尾5月頭,市場傳出中央已頒佈命令,一刀切禁止任何銀行貸款,超級擾民。之後出事,中央投降,個市亦升番。今時今日,唔知「冇咗」港股直通車,特區股市要再跌幾多,不過出到咁激咁擾民嘅手法,唔通中央投降在即?


13 comments:

  1. hello!傱ALIBABA第一天上市你給的所謂意見(沽),就知道你眼光平庸 不是大將之才,私心重,9流分析員是你,全港只有你和X常念給ALIBABA這樣的意見,眼睛放遠D啦9流分析員孫柏文!

    ReplyDelete
  2. 猜中或猜錯的重要性並不大,最重要是背後的理據是否充份。

    孫柏文每次的建議都有他的理由,是對是錯都給大家另一個角度思考,不是嗎?

    請大家有點厚道吧。

    ReplyDelete
  3. 我都知聽日實彈, 美國都開緊+137啦.

    無話o岩定唔o岩, 升跌都一定有理由.

    好似郭X治咁, 條友仔140叫人買5號仔, 沽恒生銀行, 咪一樣有人當佢神禁拜.

    咩咩細價股神, 市值細啲師奶聽到一掃就升啦.

    仲有新城下晝個燈神, 都唔知點仲有得do.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hahahahha

    I love it how wahsun only discovers I am a 9流分析員 TODAY!!!!

    hahahahhaha

    So have you bought Alibaba? Go buy it! buy! buy! buy!

    In fact, put in place a dollar cost averaging monthly buy program on 1688.

    Or are you too chicken to do so?

    And after that, hold on to it, see you back here in 12 months.

    woot woot!

    ReplyDelete
  5. 不能和04年相比喎!

    當時中國的經濟雖然起飛,但當時中國的股票巿場較今天溫和,而且加上97+99+03的「股壇連環擊」後,要吸引人民投資股巿以達融資效果,當時是無可厚非。

    其實標題「中央投降,重開直通車」是有點兒捉字失。中央一早表明直通車是要開,但是技術上問題要押後,因為重要是人民幣的外流問題,未能控制得宜。

    溫總反對只限提取三萬元是當然,因為是一個比較愚蠢的方法。但亦反映出一個問題,就是內地銀行的管理人材的「份量」,完全未入流。有很多方法比限提取三萬元,更能見效及美觀。

    其實直通車的故事,是香港親子教育的一個借鏡:話說有一天,兒子在校內給同學欺負,父親翌日立即回校向欺負他的同學興師問罪要老師交待。還跟兒子說:不論怎樣,父親也是支持你。原意父親是想讓兒子知道,有問題可以告訴父親,讓父親幫忙。誰不知,兒子誤解了,以後父親撐腰,可以作威作福!在校內周圍挑起火頭,弄到四面為敵。這是父親才知問題弄大了,要出來修拾殘局。

    柏文兄,若現在中國政府立即開直通車,香港這個兒子便會有恃無恐。當年戰後香港可以翻身,因為當時的人懂自強,以非倚賴!早一個月也說過,香港的新黑三類有心想搶劫同胞!中央絕不能好心做壞事!溫總的精句:有賺!有賠!最後警告了!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Must say Allan's post are one of the better posts here in this blog.

    Really really good.

    ReplyDelete
  7. 伸拳頭唔犯法, 豎手指更加唔係啦! 咁就還你一隻金手指!

    膠流分析員都係分析股市啦,咪以為自己真係上帝隻金手指先得!

    "膠"來"膠"去, 有個地盤就放肆!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. hahahahah

    公民黨 Fans!!!!

    Anyhow.

    Please do not take your frustration of democratic camp's defeat out on me.

    I am as pissed off as you are about how bad they are performing right now...

    2012? Can anyone see we get democracy then, when the fight is led by the current democratic camp ppl?

    I dunno... They are not inspiring me right now.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Sorry, just wanna let u know that teasing & insulting ppl does not help neither...

    AND IT'S SURELY NOT FREEDOM OF SPEECH!!

    if hk s full of ppl like u, i think we won't have democracy till 2112...

    ReplyDelete
  10. 點解你喲LINKS唔見咗"這雙手雖小"...

    ReplyDelete
  11. 骨佬,

    在我記憶中,不嬲都無依條 link的。

    佢好耐無 update 個 link list了。孫柏文,幾時更新你的 list 呢?

    ReplyDelete
  12. 栢兄:

    政策是甚麼?維護市場?操控市場?差之毫釐,謬以千里......如果Erica願意玩番本行,一定更精彩,想再看袁氏物語啊~~~~~~:}

    Daniel.

    ReplyDelete
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