Thursday, November 15, 2007

通脹勢將失控

噚日,滙豐為花旗國業務向股東交代。原先想分析吓。不過,喺小弟落筆嘅呢一刻,滙豐只係公佈咗啲報告。因為「講未來」嘅分析員發佈會仲未開始,惟有聽日先同大家講。

今日,孫柏文想繼續講,深圳啲銀行唔畀存戶攞錢單嘢,因為真係令我好不安。相信大家都知,深圳存戶呢幾日提款面對數額限制,每日不能逾3萬。即係自己錢,唔畀攞。

噚日,打電話畀隔籬思哲兄,問吓佢點睇。佢話:「呢個唔畀存戶攞錢嘅指令,真係由央行發出。政府話係去打擊黃、賭、毒。」

大鑊到要講大話

我一聽就答:「打黃賭毒?Oh please,唔好玩啦!即係某間油尖旺的士高裏面有人索K,香港銀行唔畀攞錢?數額總要好奇怪,攞3萬索K肯定OD死。打黃賭毒?講大話都講得咁硬膠。」

經過討論一番之後,思哲兄同我都決定今日寫呢單嘢。因為我哋兩個都絕對同意,政府話限提款為打黃賭毒,係講大話。

問題就係如果政府講大話,咁真正理由係乜?

而真正嘅理由,點解大鑊到要政府講大話?

第一個解釋方法,就係央行冇現鈔。以前細細個過年,老竇話大陸利是用舊銀紙,因為冇budget印新。現在大國崛起,冇理由冇budget。唔通啲印刷機俾聯儲局同日央行霸晒嚟用?冇理由。

第二係因為想維持銀行體制穩定,不斷提高存款準備金,銀行唔想違規,只好焗住啲存款,當自己係曱甴酒店。不過就將情況變得更加不穩定。試問,如果你喺大陸有閒錢鈔票,仲會唔會放喺銀行?

第三就係央行想控制貨幣供應去打擊通脹。理論上市場上冇現鈔,拖慢交易速度,就可以控制貨幣供應。最弊,好多「見得光」或「唔見得光」嘅進口產品,都係經過深圳。如果有個進口巴西豬肉入大陸嘅商人,貨到不過因對方只收現金,所以無法找數畀佢。啲豬肉喺口岸腐爛,未能進口,豬肉價繼而飛升,通脹更加失控,呢隻鑊邊個孭先?

真係好不安。

7 comments:

  1. 上次陽春麵加價,阿爺竟然用行政手段唔畀佢地加價,搞到碗麵細到食兩碗都唔飽。以為用行政手段能打壓通漲。

    今次又唔知為乜限制提錢,要用阿爺思維想,才會知道真正的主因。

    點解唯獨是深圳?廣洲提完錢落黎都係幾個鐘車程,只得深圳實行幫到 d 乜?

    坊間最主要的講法係防止熱錢再流入香港炒股,阿爺唔想個市再上?唔通快快趣去返24000,就即實施資金自由行?

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Pakman, 你是真傻或是扮傻?

    ReplyDelete
  4. "...大規模的現金投放也混雜了相當多的利用大額提現來進行黃賭毒、走私、洗錢、偷稅漏稅等各種違紀違規違法行為..."

    "黃賭毒、走私、洗錢、偷稅漏稅" 你卻只說"黃賭毒", 「見得光」或「唔見得光」嘅進口產品正是打擊對象!

    "深圳的現金投放量已佔全國一半" 你真的不覺怪嗎?

    http://www.takungpao.com/news/07/11/14/ZM-823332.htm

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  5. 郎咸平一早提咗貼士:「虛擬資金」,呢堆找換店根本響度幫貪官洗緊錢,就係咁簡單。

    研究中國經濟最攞命地方係:read between lines.

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