Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Blackstone上市 股民小心

噚日,孫柏文拜讀鄰居《國金眺望》方卓如兄嘅文章,獲益良多,有好多啓發,今日想同大家分享。卓如兄噚日話:「私募基金Blackstone Group最近高調得有點反常,原來是要為上市鋪路……公司上市,主要不外乎三個原因。

一、籌錢。

二、(冇份參與管理嘅)股東要求公司增加透明度。

三、必 定與私募將旗下項目上市的原因一樣──改裝完成,是時候套現走人。」

而卓如兄嘅分析結論係Blackstone上市,應該係原因三,股東覺得係「時候套現 走人」。卓如兄嘅結論,我都好同意,因為一、Blackstone根本冇上市融資需要,連Blackstone總裁都曾經講過,話佢打幾個電話,就可以籌 200億美元資金。二、有如卓如兄話:「私募通常都是以合
夥人形式經營,各位老闆對公司賬簿瞭如指掌,沒道理要上市求透明。」所以,唯一結論就肯定係股東 想套現。

已接近泡沫頂

大家可能覺得,一間花旗國私募基金想上市套現,唔關自己事,不過如果大家真係咁諗,就大錯特錯。理由好 簡單,冇上市融資壓力嘅公司,如果想為套現上市,就一定係股東覺得「價啱」,或者「價到位」,先至會上市。而其中一個可以主宰股東是否覺得「價到位」嘅因 素,就係股市大圍情況,股東可能覺得,大市已升得七七八八,所以就趁機會上市,「放貨」畀街客。

孫柏文甚至相信,原有股東非常討厭將公司透明度提高,而作 為上市公司就某程度上一定要公開公司啲秘密,所以除非公司上市「放貨」時,出售價比起心中嘅價高得多,有「放棄私隱」嘅溢價,Blackstone根本唔 會上市。大家可能會問:「Blackstone覺得個市升得七七八八,唔等如Blackstone真係睇得咁準,唔等如Blackstone上市之後個市 就即刻見頂?」

如果大家想買Blackstone睇錯市,我建議千祈咪制,因為Blackstone係smart money中嘅smart money。佢賣得自己公司嘅股票畀你,都應該冇「死錯人」,大圍股市真係升得七七八八,甚至可能已經接近多年難得一見嘅股市泡沫頂。

歷史會否重演

其 實,smart money中嘅smart money趁股市泡沫賣自己公司股票畀你,絕對唔係第一次。喺99年,「至醒」投資銀行高盛Goldman Sachs,卒之決定解散有百多年歷史嘅合夥人經營模式去上市。當年我讀大學有同學問我好唔好買,當時我答:「買唔買就唔知,不過肯定呢個係多年難得一見 嘅股市泡沫。More downside than upside,如果有股票都要小心。」

雖然股市之後都仲有升,不個冇乜值博率,而最終熊市來臨嘅時候,真係跌到趴地。今日就為大家提供個走勢圖(圖 一),大家見到最終熊市來臨之後,要去到06年尾先至升番上來。今日Blackstone上市,唔知道歷史會否重演呢?

未必等如唔好買

最 後,我個同學最終都有去抽高盛嘅新股,不過抽唔到,結果等上市嗰日走去追買。問佢點解,佢話:「如果去酒吧見到班高盛banker,而佢哋又『寸我』的 話,我可以指住佢哋嘅頭,大大聲話『我係你老闆啊!』所以就算貴一貴都要買。」

我嘅朋友都幾好,雖然標普500指數,今時今日比起高盛上市時升咗少少,不 過高盛GS嘅股價就比起我朋友嘅買入價76美元,升咗差唔多三倍,見202美元(圖二)。所以最終就算係股市泡沫頂,都未必等如唔好買。

6 comments:

  1. my little simple and naive thought

    would it just because Blackstone wish to do more M&A in future as last yr :D

    and bull last till juneee ? :p

    ReplyDelete
  2. 會唔會同亞洲股神上次賣野個case差唔多?

    當然,我地既亞洲股神同Blackstone有一段距離...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well, when Goldman went public, the market top didn't occur for another year... So this rally could continue.

    I don't think Blackstone need to raise money via an IPO to do M&A deals... They can borrow as much as they can, because when they buy stuff, the target usually is good enough collateral.

    They are selling because the price they will get is their ideal price. We'll see...

    As for Uncle 4... I could have out performed him if I was privy to the share he was allocated in the various IPOs... Smells like good old "friend of frank" type deals

    ReplyDelete
  4. HI Mr Pakman,
    I read your post in newspaper regarding the trend of platinum.

    I would really like to invest into platinum, but where is the channel?

    Is there any stock which has a high correlation with platinum?

    Or we have to buy future?

    ReplyDelete
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