Tuesday, March 20, 2007

中石油業績

噚日,中石油857公 布06年嘅業績,相信今日都已經有好多人會分析。不過,如果要孫柏文呢個前石油分析員去做總結,我只可以話啲業績「不尋常地差」。中石油喺06年嘅全年盈 利增長只有6.7%,搞到我以前啲同行,一眾分析員、個個面懵懵,因為最保守嗰個都好似話盈利最少會有雙位數字嘅增長。

中石油話係因為有「原油暴利稅」,令上游原油開採盈利下跌,而將原油提煉成石油副產品例如電油、油渣等等,跟住拎去賣都要蝕本,令下游生意出現嚴重虧損,所以兩個因素加埋令盈利增長得咁少。

不 過,呢啲因素就連孫柏文都知,冇理由我以前啲同行個個計錯數。其實,今次業績「不尋常地差」,係因為中石油「不尋常地玩嘢」,抗議國家政策。祖國政府對能 源只有兩個政策,第一就係盡量搵多啲供應,第二就係為了民間疾苦,盡可能控制能源價格。以上政策實行時,就會出現原油緊貼世界市價,令油公司盡量有誘因去 發掘新供應,不過會同時出現石油副產品有價格控制,令提煉嘅單位面對節節上升嘅成本,不過就唔可以調節產品零售價。

但 係提煉單位冇可能無止境咁蝕本,而因為祖國政府唔想放棄電油、油渣嘅價格控制,所以就推出「原油暴利稅」呢個權宜之計,希望上游可以補貼下游。中石油當然 對「原油暴利稅」唔開心,希望可以放寬石油副產品價格限制去解決提煉單位嘅虧損問題,所以就「玩嘢」,話自己嘅盈利增長快速放慢,想畀全世界嘅人一個「中 石油會冇錢開發或買新油田」嘅感覺,去威脅中央。

同行難齊心反對

當 然,放寬石油副產品價格限制係所有石油公司都想見到嘅,不過「價格限制」係共產主義者最喜歡嘅概念,唔係咁輕易放棄,所以中石油可能係想迫中央政府去減 「原油暴利稅」。不過減「暴利稅」,有好多提煉業務嘅中石化(386),就一定唔likey,所以就會有中石油打中石化嘅情況出現,而唔係齊心反對石油副 產品嘅「價格限制」。最慘,就係正當油公司喺「原油暴利稅」上角力,最死嘅就係得上游業務嘅中海油(883)。最後,噚日應承過今日繼續教花旗國按揭字彙 嘅英文,不過版位有限,聽日先繼續。

10 comments:

  1. I wish the content of your book not too "deep". Otherwise, I may cannot digest it well....hehe.

    By the way, thanks for your advise on #358. I have put the bet on it today. Although the price of copper is still rising, it seem hard to break thought $10. in short term...(too much "crab" stock). Do you agree?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sorry, I forgot to write my name on the above post.

    I am KAY, Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hahahaha I am sure you will do fine and understand whatever I can too.

    But it is true. There's the challenge...

    How to write so that even my father, who is not the sharpest guys with numbers and finance to not only understand, but want to read too.

    As for 358, once copper breaks its 200 dma to the upside, it should be pop over $10.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  4. So, is it a good time to buy 857? What's the future of 857?

    Warren Buffet is still holding quite a lot 857!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Honestly...

    I use to be a big fan of 857. A HUGE fan of it.

    Unfortunately, I really hate the 原油暴利稅. It is shit. There is no upside benefit to chinese crude oil companies.

    To be honest, I will only seriously think about the Chinese oil stocks when there are serious reforms on the price caps on gasoline, diesel etc...

    Like full liberalization.

    Until then, bet on other commodity stock such as 358 Jiangxi Copper.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  6. PacMan

    "Unfortunately, I really hate the 原油暴利稅. It is shit. There is no upside benefit to chinese crude oil companies."

    I used to be a big fans and am still is! This time i do not agree with you on your view with
    原油暴利稅 , i HATE it too .... BUT think twice the existing price should have reflected it already , if there is any adjustment in tax chances are downward adjustment more than upward so the winning chance is better than losing

    ReplyDelete
  7. The current price does price in the tax.

    But it has not priced in a rosy future of oil prices.

    When you bet on a stock to appreciate, you expect it to increasingly price in certain expectation.

    Right now, there are no expectation for oil to go to and stay at $100 a barrel.

    But when the market realise that oil will do that, 857 share price will move. The problem is, before it might have gone to $20, now only $12 a share.

    Before it we exposed FULLY to oil price increase, now... sad...

    But if oil goes to $100, other commodities will move up too. Might as well bet on firms fully exposed to other commodities...

    ReplyDelete
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