07年7月30日下午，滙豐出中期業績。嗰朝早，孫柏文叫大家一注獨沽滙豐。嗰篇文章嘅第一句，就係以上嗰句。當日，亦為大家提供112.5元嘅目標價，建議有效時間12個月。
噚日，到價。好多朋友、同事，都叫我慶祝一番。不過我冇心機。因為滙豐股價由當日嘅140元，跌至噚日收市嘅104.4元，背後有不能想像嘅眼淚。慶祝又怎能建基於他人嘅眼淚。同當日一樣，今日，呢篇文都非常難寫。
以後，不論男女老幼，如果你因炒股票唔開心，而又喺街上見到我。你只要走過嚟話：「我唔開心， I need a hug。」我就會hug你。啱或錯，都可以唔開心。
雖然我唔希望你是"名燈"；但如果代價是要環球資產大貶值，我都係不忍...
ReplyDelete同意你所說：贏了也不見得開心。感受得到...
像你這種財演，偶然給你幸運猜中就沾沾自喜，猜不中的就心照不宣。任何有良心的推測都應該在業績公佈後再評估，很懷疑你為甚麼連一天時間都等不到，急不及待就要在中期業績公佈前出甚麼「一注獨沽」的言論。而你所謂到價，只是在市場出現意想不到，十年難得一見的大跌日才達標，當你滿心歡喜發文「慶賀」時，誰不知今天匯控的股價已經升越你的目標價了，這樣的情況會不會有點諷刺？
ReplyDelete何況，次按銀行的股價關乎到伯南克或美國政府的政策，如果伯南克早早減息，次按問題恐怕不會如此迅速惡化，匯控是否到價也是未知數，重點在於我根本不相信你在半年前已經可以預知伯南克反應遲鈍而拖累全球股市！
當格老或畢菲特都不敢對次按風波妄下定論，你卻瞱眾取寵提出「一注獨沽」這等言論，我實在看不到你當時訂下的目標價有任何實質數據支持，現給你僥幸言中，難道我們就會真的相信你眼光獨到嗎？
請你撫心自問，你本人有沒有「一注獨沽賣匯豐」，如果有，我恭喜你，相信你已得到豐盛的收獲，但如果連你自己都沒「一注獨沽」，你又甚憑麼叫別人「一注獨沽」？又如果你當天真的把全副身家「一注獨沽賣匯豐」，我想你現在大概不用待在那沒公信力的報章寫專欄，更不用跟另一財演沈振盈合作，沈財演的所謂「預測」也是有目共睹的，由 817 後，一直到股市升至二萬四、五左右仍一直看淡，結果是恆指升到歷史新高的三萬二！想不到你跟沈財演聯手合作，正是物以類聚，嗚呼哀災。
撫心自問我有沒有「一注獨沽賣匯豐」?
ReplyDelete有。
And I dunno... Have you made a trade?
就算沒有十年難得一遇的大跌日，滙丰受次按所影響的撥備一次比一次多是事實；滙丰的股價逐漸下跌也是事實。如果孫栢文在去年七月對滙丰美國業務的關注及其股價的走勢，與現時的情況是一致的話，也不能武斷地說，孫栢文是"幸運"猜中。
ReplyDelete因有時他預測不準確時，他有致歉的，也非厚顏視作見不到之徒。MC，您的說話未免言重了點啊。
大家也是交流對投資市場的看法吧了。也該彼此尊重。
Sarah,你知不知道每天有幾多財演在「分析」恒指以至股價走勢，當中亦有不少人言中，無他的，賭大細，二分一機會罷了。
ReplyDelete我總認為任何有責任及良心的分析員都不會預測一隻股票的短期股價，更何況是半年後的價值，所以你從來沒有聽過格老及巴菲特直言某股股價，更何況只要懂得風險管理的人都不會建議投資者把整筆金錢進行「一注」買賣，只有賭徒才會孤注一擲。
to mc:
ReplyDeleteben is a scholar, he have to wait for data to do his number crunching. and there was not a need in the rush to lower the rate a week ago. and why he had to wait till monday nite before making his phone calls? cuz he is a north american, north american don't work at all on weekends unless the sky is falling (the second day of falling in asia).
it is not a matter of whether Ben is slow on reacting or not, cuz the problem is not "rate-cut". even if he did cut a 100-basis-point a month ago, this could still happen, it's just a matter of time.
if all "有良心的推測" have to wait till after the earning conference, then that is not a "推測" at all, then what's the need of an analyst forecast? you can say all forecast analyst are bud holes, that i agree with you.
you are right that this only happens if there's a market disaster, but many out there were already expecting this way back, just the matter of when? you said "意想不到", maybe you just didn't follow the news enough. you can say he is "跟人口水尾", but not pure luck.
if you think he is just bullshitting, why take it so serious? if you did take it seriously, what are you complaining about? are you complaining his "烏鴉口"? if so then that is not pure luck, i wish i could be that powerful too.
i agree with you that the topic 「一注獨沽」is very "瞱眾取寵", but there are more ""瞱眾取寵" topics out there, i can send you some links if you wanna write some comments on those blogs too.
i understand you are losing a lot of money, cuz me too. let's hope the market can get better soon.
to pakman:
take it easy. this is the kinda reaction and response i got several years back when i tell my friends that there's no WMD in Iraq, just different topics.
MC，你手頭係咪hold住好多匯豐？
ReplyDeletevl，我想伯南克出手的機會多的是，早於去年年中已有學者提出次按風波的嚴重後果，甚至格老早就揚言美國經濟可能出現衰退，只是伯南克一而再地錯過減息救經濟的時機。
ReplyDeletevi/米生，或許是我太緊張，但我並非如你們所說惱恨作者的烏鴉口或錯過賺錢的機會，我就是看不過眼有人急於繳功，我只認為即使要領功，也該待股價在一定時間內低於其所訂的目標價，正如你不可以很概括的說恆指穿 250 日線便是進入熊市一樣。
我明白每個人都該為自己的投資損失負上最大責任，只是作者有沒有想過像甚麼「一注獨沽」的賭徒言論可以令部份無知股民蒙受巨大損失？又或者你可曾想過這等言論會令人誤把股場作賭場？
當然，我在這裡並非要把個人責任推到作者身上，只是我必須指出作為專欄作家，你的文章可以影響別人的投資取向，行文用字實須格外小心。
人地都講到明贏都唔開心,又點會沾沾自喜.
ReplyDelete今日升番二千幾點，其實仲危險。炒升時，殺的係少數淡友；炒跌時，殺的是多數好友。次按的連鎖七層效應，現在先行到第三層，仲有四層未出現呢！
ReplyDeleteto mc:
ReplyDeleteok, if you did concluded that everything he had said are all pure luck and he is a joke, then why didn't you complain in the first place when he made his "一注獨沽" articles? if you did, so are you complaining again for the same reasons after the market did collapse?
well, yes, many predicted that there's recession coming, and many did predicted that when allan was still the chairman. but allan denied everything till he was no longer in the office.
and let's suppose ben did cut an extra 100-basis-point a year ago. so does that solved the problem? we might see WTI at $150 and the CPI jumped like hell and people still can't afford to make the mortgage payment. the default still happens, the CDOs still goes down in value, the credit rating system is still going to collapse. are you trying to convince us that lowering the interest rate earlier can safe the world?
i don't see how "一注獨沽滙豐" can "蒙受巨大損失". i didn't and today i really "蒙受巨大損失"!!! "一注獨沽" or diversification are just investing habits, there's no right or wrong.
you first complain about his "沾沾自喜" and "滿心歡喜", but you are the only one here having that feeling, i have no idea where that came from.
you then said "...我根本不相信你...", then that's your problem for not trusting anyone, it's not his responsibility to make you trust him.
you then said if he did "一注獨沽賣匯豐" then he don't have to be a columnist anymore. hey, maybe the guy enjoy his job so much that money doesn't matter to him.
the guy said "一注..." doesn't necessarily means "全副身家". if you go to the jockey club to buy a ticket of "一注" doesn't mean it's your "全副身家" right!?
why are you making all these assumption from nowhere and criticizes people?
to pakman:
hey, you earn my respect for having such a high EQ. look at the bright side, you are getting more popular!!! these are exactly the types of comments i saw on freeze and stephy's blogs. you are turning into a celebrity now!!!
when somebody did actually give a shit about what you write, that is already something to feel good about. keep it up!
栢文兄.11:13唔係做緊MONEY CAFE?居然有空回覆!!我看到大家跟"mc"的爭論簡直眉飛色舞.賭場內輪盤內有嬴有輸.一日未開一日未知結果,大家參與其中各抒己見有何不可?作為一個負責任開名開樣的評論員,每寫一粒字每一個大題目都一定深思熟濾.每天都以自己的名譽而戰.你可以不看.但不要質疑別人的專業.而"mc"另一個執拗的所謂『一注』,come on man...人生有千千萬萬的一注,你自我解釋成一注等如『孤注』那實在會令你慢慢的孤軍作戰.一注獨嬴可以加三注位置.一膽全餐,八隻復式,投注注數多不勝數,栢文兄叫我們買一注已經係有責任的推介.嗱"mc"為了滿足你,我膽粗粗給你不是一注而是七注的投資推介.2628拖5+16+358+1800+390+127+1893 100萬元注碼2628壓30萬其他各買10萬,一膽七腳,有效期3年.當中你不要再看任何分析.我保証,你會win又唔駛勞氣!最後,不要將我們尊敬的老孫跟那個小紅鼻"沈淡王"雙題並論,級數唔同.那君時輸打嬴要之輩..請慎言!!
ReplyDelete栢文兄, 支持你.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, he upholds the anticipation of HSBC as $112.5, and seems no intention to offer a opposite idea.
Today, CLASA claimed for $80, is it "瞱眾取寵"?
CLSA's call... is pretty consistent with their macro view of everything going to hell in a hand basket.
ReplyDeleteI remember their economist Jim Walker last year writing a piece bascially saying gold and silver will be the only two financial instruments left standing.
al, 你似乎是作者的支持者。其實，我要寫的已寫過了，我不會重申自己的觀點，而且你斷章取義地解讀我的用詞也歪曲了我的原意。是否全副身家不重要，「一注獨沽」才是問題關鍵。當然，有人可以取巧的說所謂「一注獨沽」以外還可以有很多注碼，反正就是賭博心態蓋過基本因素分析。
ReplyDelete就當我太執著於用字，實事求是，我建議大家不如重溫「獨沽」原文︰
http://phatdat.blogspot.com/2007/07/blog-post_7581.html
你會發現作者對於資產負債損益表、PE、PB 等數據隻字不提，我會問，到底 $112.5 這個價是如何計算出來呢？我實在看不到背後有任何有力數據作支持。
Hey mc,
ReplyDeleteYou have caught me red handed.
Let me show you my model. Where I derive my target price.
Hope you are ready for this secret.
I draw a line on the wall. With $0 on one end and $280 on the other end. (with the mkt price that day $140 in the middle)
Then I ask my monkey to throw a dart.
Where it lands determines my price target.
If it landed at $180, it would have been a 一注獨贏買匯豐 recommendation...
Basically all random.
情況愈來愈有趣了，有指星期環球股市急跌，即作者沾沾自喜急報到價的時候，背後極可能是法興於三天內進行大額平倉活動，與任何基本因素甚至技術分析毫無關連，那麼作者是否仍然滿足於自己的到價言論？還是作者早於半年前已預知法興交易員能夠觸發環球股市暴跌？
ReplyDeleteMC. I advice you pull your head out of ass. There are no model answer.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are not employed anywhere in finance. For you will be like that pathetic Nobel Prize winner that started LTCM. "if it wasn't for those events that my models didn't predict, I would be so rich."
*sigh* so sad.
MC is the first one to come to this blog and NOT say, "YOU ARE WRONG!!!"
But come to my blog and say, "You are right, BUT WHY???? I want to know why??? If you can't explain you suck!!"
HAhahahhahahaha
Look MC, I don't know what you do for a living. But I am sure you are not excelling at it. And if you tell me you are, you are lying.
No one with your 2nd rate temperament can deal with anything important.
As for "you cannot predict this trading fraud", all I can say is you must be a new comer to this blog.
I have talked over and over about black swan. You can't predict black swan certainly.
But when the credit market was sooooo loose.
When people were lending money assuming blue skies ahead forever.
It was not hard to call for things turning into shitz.
Oh also.
How about this. Stop asking me why I think HSBC should fall.
But how about this MC, tell me what you think HSBC is worth and why.
If you have no idea, feel free to copy and paste my target price and ideas. For you have a vacuum that yearns to be filled.
And also, when you have no idea. Shut the fuck up.
MC = Typical dumbass that remains anon.
Oh one more thing.
ReplyDeleteIf you think I DID NOT provided sufficient reason for HSBC to fall to these levels. Indeed no one has.
And that HSBC's fall is due to a fluke of SG's troubles.
NEXT TIME it gets to $112.5 per share. Go and buy some. And yes. It will go back down to $112.5 per share for HSBC.
唔買正衰仔!
Let me make ANOTHER prediction.
When it gets back to $112.5, "MC" will disappear like all those anon fuck heads that pissed in my blog before.
哈，辭窮先發難，是我的提問過份尖銳？
ReplyDelete我質疑你的用詞沒照顧風險管理與鼓吹賭風，你不置可否。我懷疑是否應該把達標設定一個時限(至少應該十天或二十天線低於你的目標價)才算你的推測準確無誤以避免市場一時錯價，你卻沒作正面回應。我問你怎樣推算 $112.5 這個價值，你沒有提出具說服力的數據支持你的觀點。這些就是你作為財經專欄作家應有的表現嗎？還是你認為我以上幾個問題全無道理？至少我不認為以上提問是在故意找碴。
請你留意，是否穿 $112.5 這個價不重要，我亦不排除匯控業績強差人意或次按問題持續惡化令其股價繼續受壓，屆時你再繳功也不遲。我只是質疑你借市場的不尋常波幅而急急繳功，更可笑是現在有證據指那幾天的波幅與整體經濟無關！事實放於眼前是匯控經兩天的波動，這幾天的股價又升愈你的目標價了。
當然，我不認為自己對財經的知識比你優勝，你可是大報裡的財經專欄作家，而我只是一個微不足道的小股民，但如果你連我的疑問都無法解答，你不能怪我質疑你的專業。又當你的文章觀點站不住腳，你不選擇正面回應，反以粗言指控於我，這會不會有失你專欄作家的身份？
你身為財經專欄作家，當遇到小股民如我向你提問，你不但刻意迴避、故設賭局，更惡言相向，這會不會讓一直以來支持你的讀者太失望？又如果你乾脆承認你只不過是財演一名，那麼我不會再向你要答案，反正我從來不期望財演能給我任何實質答案。
ReplyDelete看你言辭拙劣，也難怪當天你對紮鐵工潮的「偉論」竟成眾矢之的，請你自行到 youtube 搜尋你的大名，重溫你同樣站不住腳的謬論是如何被論壇各人以至 youtube 留言批評得體無完膚。慶幸，像你這樣一個心胸狹隘的人未能如願當上立法會議員，不然只會浪費立稅人的金錢。
香港是一個言論自由的社會，你可以寫專欄寫 blog，我也有權在你的 blog 裡留下自己的意見，開設一個 blog 又
容不下對立意見，請你幹脆把它關閉，或直接刪除我的留言好了。
"財演"+"故意找碴"都是內地人的用詞 , 剛巧MC對HSBC一事表現出"被動式局限性思維" , 跟pakman的"主動性宏觀的預測"完全是兩回事 . 可能MC是接受傳統的爰國教育之關係 . 這些已從pakman對話體現出來 . 其實pakman無必要教MC賺錢之餘 , 還要辛辛苦苦說服他 , 呢個係mud嘢世界!
ReplyDeletepakman對MC話:
I hope you are not employed anywhere in finance. For you will be like that pathetic Nobel Prize winner that started LTCM. "if it wasn't for those events that my models didn't predict, I would be so rich."
Look MC, I don't know what you do for a living. But I am sure you are not excelling at it. And if you tell me you are, you are lying.
No one with your 2nd rate temperament can deal with anything important.
hahahah
ReplyDeleteMC.
With your reference to the 紮鐵工潮
now I know why you are so bothered.
You are a socialist. One of Hard plastic ones too.
Probably can't stand us over at the Lion Rock Institute.
Thats also why you are so insulting to the investment public. Assuming that they have no independent judgment.
Anyhow. It is good to know why you are so bothered.
to mc:
ReplyDeleteam i his supporter!? oh yes, i am also his secret admirer. cuz the guy is so damn sexy, good looking and hot. he can sing and dance too.
and i am wondering if you are one too. maybe you want to get his attention so he will reply you, and later on "私有化" him (oh no..., all pakman fans will be so disappointed). maybe i should consider your strategy and get his attention too. "Hey pakman, you are a jerk!!!" (hope i get his attention this time)
to pakman:
hey chill man!!! just another "維園亞伯".
see, i told you, you are a celebrity!!! he actually search your stuff on youtube. (LOL) maybe soon your name will hit the yahoo's homepage as the most searched topic.
or maybe like i said, he really is your admirer. considering yourself as andy lau and he/she is 楊麗娟, then it all make sense.
have a nice weekend!!!
對於匯控，我不是死硬派，只要你能夠給我一個具說服力的答案。這位仁兄看淡的時間比你更早，設下的目標買入價比你更低 ($100)，可是他的分析比你專業得多。是你孫財演也好，或是你的忠實粉絲也好，就參考一下吧︰
ReplyDeletehttp://accountboyhk.mysinablog.com/index.php?
op=ViewArticle&articleId=463235
奇怪，當你充當「金手指」，對社會上的人與事冷嘲熱諷，是何等的意氣風發，但當倒過來被別人質疑卻顯得不知進退言不及義，只懂以粗言回應，你的侃侃而談都到哪裡去了？正是剃人頭者亦剃其頭吧。
至於你這裡的粉絲也並不怎麼樣，甚麼「財演」是內地人用詞，看得我不明所以，又以為我要引起你的注意，那是太抬舉你老兄了。反正你沒打算回答我的質問，不打擾了。
Finally...
ReplyDeleteSocialist boy bids adieu hahahaha
I am so sorry I never convinced you.
THEN WHY THE FUCK HAVE YOU WASTED SO MUCH TIME READING THIS BLOG???
Which part of "INCOHERENT THOUGHTS" do you not understand.
Look. If you think the irrational buzz I have created by predicting and then right about HSBC going to $112.5
I am so sure you will be completely APPALLED by the buzz when silver hits US$120 per Oz.
APPALLED AAAAAHHHHHHH!!!
hhahahahhaha
As for 只懂以粗言回應
ReplyDeleteI refer you to my first two responses.
柏文兄,
ReplyDeleteJust let him go, or he just enjoys your reply.
When the HSBC has an unexpected high of profit at July 2007, he kept the anticipation due to the US subprime mortgage. Raising star HangSeng works like the best example. Anyway, I remembered he also rung the alarming clock to those US financial institutes and Investment Banks around August 2007 at the "Money Cafe".
P.S. starting to buy small amount of RMB constantly
四眼仔