Thursday, January 17, 2008

Steve Jobs 預測未來趨勢

今日,學吓上面尹思哲,講吓科技。前晚,蘋果總裁Steve Jobs發表佢一年一度嘅「介紹新產品」演說MacWorld keynote speech。噚日,思哲兄就Jobs上身,寫咗篇題為「假如我是Steve Jobs」嘅文章,分享咗佢心目中希望Jobs會講嘅嘢。

今日,孫柏文就為大家分析吓前晚公開嘅蘋果新產品。

傳統電訊商末日


首先,應該將會非常積極鼓勵「非蘋果」嘅第三者,為iPhone製造軟件。平時大家用開嘅手機,差唔多所有功能都係電話製造商提供,又冇得更新。我淨係想睇啲比較新嘅pdf文件都唔得。iPhone用戶如果可以下載新軟件,就等於佢哋嘅電話可以不斷更新。講真,用戶對硬件功能已經冇乜要求,可以不斷更新軟件先至係最重要。

仲有,Jobs攞番基本上減去可以接駁到傳統電訊網絡功能嘅iPhone、iPod Touch出嚟,都有玄機。不能接駁到傳統電訊網絡,不等於不能用話音溝通或寄SMS,只係經過無線互聯網WiFi。令我相信Jobs見到傳統電訊商嘅末日之路。

幫電車男慳時間


跟住Jobs再公開兩個新產品,第一個係網上租碟服務,第二個係冇「讀碟器」嘅超細手提電腦。兩個產品走埋一齊嘅解讀,就係浪費好多電車男好多時間嘅「究竟下一代DVD係藍光Blu Ray定係HD-DVD贏」嘅問題。喺Jobs眼中,根本冇point。

唔同對上兩年,今次Jobs講嘢,蘋果股價大幅下滑。點解?唔係因為冇創意,只不過攞嚟搞「破壞」。Schumpeter嗰隻creative destruction。電訊商、DVD,真係走上末路?

8 comments:

  1. http://www.apple.com/timecapsule/

    我中意呢個 backup everything 的 timecapsule.

    未必大賣,但其實幾實用

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  2. 我同意孫栢文在Money Cafe中提及,在香港、甚至大中華,我們少了一間Apple Shop。正當我們看見網上的presentation都覺得Macbook Air咁正之時,如果有間打正旗號的Apple Shop,再配合Apple的marketing strategy,我會第一個不考慮就飛身去買的人。

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  3. 4 million iPhones sold. Looks like they are on track to deliver 10 million in the first year.

    The MacBook Air is a disappointment for me. No doubt it's slim and sexy, but it's still just a conventional laptop with small improvements (new multi-touch gestures). I was waiting for a Mac tablet. Kinda like a iPod touch but with a 10" or 12" screen, no keyboard, full multi-touch screen. I know a lot of people are disappointed because of that.

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  4. Thats the whole point.

    Function wise, the MacWorld is not very sexy.

    But on Business model innovation (movie rental)

    On Engineering Marvel (MacBook Air)

    On welcoming the end of ring fenced telco firms + disc based data storage/transportation

    It was a very innovative macworld.

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  5. 嘩孫柏文你看Schumpeter嗎?
    Joe Chan曾告訴我他的書好噁啃,他自己大學時就用了整整一個summer來看,結果那個夏天冇機會溝女…

    至於Sarah提及的Apple shop....香港有一間Designer Group,是蘋果的authorized reseller,在IFC Mall有分店,我常去。
    Apple在香港也有service center,在銅鑼灣,服務不錯。

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  6. 如果去過花旗國舊金山的Apple Shop, 就會覺得香港沒有了一間真正的Apple Shop是一個遺憾.

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  7. Yeah, the telcos... don't get me started. Without outside innovators like Apple and Google (and Yahoo to some extent, haha) they are just going to keep doing stupid things that kill innovation and stifle openness. Basically stepping on their own feet, and in the process make themselves irrelevant.

    I have had by share of frustration being in this industry for a few years.

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  8. Yo Nigel,

    I think the answer to Vodafone's insistence is that they want to conserve bandwidth.

    Nothing saves bandwidth like making users turned off by surfing an indecipherable web.

    hahahahah

    ReplyDelete