This is from the good folks over at Money cafe.
"...今日公布通脹率是3.8%
目前匯豐優惠利率係6.75%
明日減息四分三厘後，優惠利率去到六厘。
按揭利率目前是P-3%= 3%
按揭實質利率:3% - 3.8%= -0.8%
哇，仲唔買樓????..."
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Applause to them including credit availability.
Here's a look at the US (ignoring credit availability)
Current US inflation rate: 4.08%
Current Fed Funds Rate: 3.25%
Therefore...
Interest rates - inflation rate - Real interest rate
3.25% - 4.08% = -0.83%
哇，仲唔買白銀????
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好似計到好有邏輯咁, 其實好誤導人!
ReplyDelete現在的樓價接近97年的瘋狂水平, 加上"發水"情況更加嚴重, 價值何在?
人工升咗幾多? 2007年, 港島樓價升咗30%, 九龍及新界10-15%, 條數又點計呢?
我都睇咗moneycafe, 其實好多人都唔同意呢個計算方法.
如果要投資, 一定要買平野, 又有好價值, 買幾隻大藍籌好過, 唔使俾利息, 仲有息派, 點解要俾錢d地產商及銀行賺?
早幾年, 樓價咁平, d人又唔買, 成日都要等到最貴時, 大家才一窩蜂去爭!
Mr Suen,
ReplyDeleteDo you agree:
CNPCHK 135 每股盈利 : $0.4553港元 (FY2007 predicted )
$0.8264港元 (FY2008 predicted )
135每股資產淨值(港元)
$3.24 (12/2007) ($0.81 in Cash)
$3.02 ( 6/2007)
I Have many informations about CNPCHK to Share with you!
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/eng/press/newsreleases/TheFirstLineoftheThirdZhanazholOilandGasProcessingPlant.htm
Martin
Hongkongers are getting more used to turbulance than before as indicated by recent fluctuation on stock. When people are still dreaming of a rebound, let's keep cash. I have downsized my investment on both property and stock by 30% since last Dec.
ReplyDeleteCNPC HK (135) used to be one of my favorite, I bought at different time in 2007 at average price of 4.5 and sold all at 6.14.
ooooo...
ReplyDeleteInteresting...
Give me a few hours to think of some responses.
2007年，阿克纠宾南扎区块盐下勘探成果: 发现一个亿吨级储量的油田，使这地区成为公司“十一五”重点战略接替区。
ReplyDelete2007年，勘探开发公司风险勘探取得重大成果，发现三个亿吨级储量的油田，使这些地区成为公司“十一五”重点战略接替区。
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/CNPC/xwygg/中国石油天然气勘探开发公司2007年科学发展综述.htm
在风险勘探方面，通过进一步加深研究、优化部署，取得多项重要突破。以乍得、哈萨克斯坦、南扎、阿尔及利亚等勘探项目为重点的“十一五”战略接替区均有重要进展。……阿克纠宾南扎区块盐下勘探成果不断扩大，形势喜人。前两年已发现的2号和北特鲁瓦油藏，是哈萨克斯坦10年来陆上风险勘探的重要发现。今年上半年，部署在这里的3口井测试均获高产油流，勘探形势较好。目前，该区块已具备“十一五”期间新建产能的储量基础。
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/Paper/2007/07/27/BigPlate/260fcf5f-1208-423e-a8fa-2afe88d1f561.htm
skysfe@hutchcity.com
I dunno where you got these numbers from...
ReplyDelete"... CNPCHK 135 每股盈利 : $0.4553港元 (FY2007 predicted )
$0.8264港元 (FY2008 predicted ) ..."
But I would hope so hahahahahha
Anyhow, I am not that ambitious. I am hoping for profit of 40 cents in FY07.
We'll see.
As for Carmen,
Buy again! You liked it at $4.5
And the fundamentals of the company has not changed. The only fear is a permanent contraction of PE.
But with growth in profit + dividend that shouldn't be a problem.
Finally, Daisy...
People like chasing expensive things as long as it goes up.
Mr Suen,
ReplyDeleteCNPCHK 135 每股盈利 : $0.4553港元 (FY2007 predicted )
$0.8264港元 (FY2008 predicted )
Based on same production level as its 1st half of 2007, after tax and minority interests. without new investment ( CNPCHK has a bank balance and cash of over HK$5,300,000,000 in Jan 2008 )
EPS:
$0.4553港元 (USD60/Barrel)
$0.6404港元 (USD70/Barrel)
$0.8264港元 (USD80/Barrel)
每股原油儲備:
0.0375桶 / $14.62港元 Dec 2006 actual ( 50美元 x 0.0375 桶 x 7.8港元)
0.0563 桶 / $21.96港元 Dec 2007 (predicted) (5 0美元 x 0.0375 桶 x 7.8 港元)
http://www.dmf.go.th/petro_focus/concession.map_eng.asp
http://www.dmf.go.th/download/monthly_eng.asp
http://www.dmf.go.th/download/monthly.report/2007/Sep2007.xls
What do you think?
CNPCHK have 12 successful drills that have result of OIL found in Thailand of its Block L21/43 and NC from Jan - Dec 2007
ReplyDeleteSupporting informations?
Just click the link : martin
Department of Mineral Fuels Thailand
http://www.dmf.go.th/download/monthly_eng.asp
http://www.dmf.go.th/petro_focus/images/Concess160807.jpg
http://www.dmf.go.th/petro_focus/images/PField160807.jpg
柏文兄, 人文幣如何?
ReplyDeleteWhile enjoy the upcoming purchasing power of RMB,just clear off the fluctuation of the US economy.
四眼仔
Yo Martin,
ReplyDeleteI don't whether the fields in Thailand has begun production.
We'll see with any updates coming.
Hey 四眼仔...
RMB? hahahahah
It is very strong.
Well, really don't want to defends anything, but for the enduser, the rental expenditure already equal to the down-payment, and negative mortgage interest rate already appear, if just for self-use, I REALLY don't see any reason to buy.
ReplyDelete