Thursday, July 05, 2007

如何甄選「心中有團火」嘅新移民

今日,孫柏文終極挺曾。對上個禮拜,我已經寫咗好多文章話,我非常認同特首曾蔭權走出嚟話要將特區打造成千萬人城市。因為我想有多300萬人,可以呼吸特區嘅自由空氣,把握自由空氣賦予嘅機會。我阿爺當年就係把握咗呢個機會,先至可以有孫柏文。我亦話過,最想見到嘅就係年輕版李嘉誠、黎智英等嘅移民。佢哋當時係「三冇」:冇錢、冇學位、冇方向。不過就好「好飢餓」hungry,對機會同知識「好飢餓」,對向上爬「好飢餓」。簡直就係心中有團火。

神髓在引入按金

我 亦解釋過,甄選到年輕版李嘉誠、黎智英為香港人嘅移民政策,就係當年嘅「抵壘政策」。「抵壘政策」就係一個完全冇主觀性嘅「入港試」,想「考」嘅人已經自 我甄選過self selected,心中一定有團火。問題就係,喺21世紀社會已經唔可以容忍「抵壘政策」分分鐘要你同鯊魚游水嘅不人道。所以挑戰就係點樣設計一個,可以 捕捉到「抵壘政策」神髓,不過又人道嘅移民政策。

仲有,任何移民政策,喺設計上都要盡量杜絕啲新移民做嗰三樣我哋最驚嘅嘢──去打劫、攞綜援、用醫療。大家可能會問:「係咪真係可以設計一個咁嘅移民政策?」其實係可以。

今日,孫柏文想 同大家分享一個叫做「有團火按金」移民政策。個政策好簡單,就係一個不論喺世界任何角落嘅新移民,只要能夠證明身體健康,跟住畀政府4萬元按金,政府就會 容許佢嚟香港3年。可以自由工作,又可以好自由咁唔工作。3年後可以發還按金,不過如果申請人喜歡,可以再續4年。又4年之後就已經7年,亦即係香港人, 到時候無條件發還按金。

4萬元按金對大家可能好少,不過對一個一係嚟香港,一係冒生命危險搭貨櫃偷渡去花旗國嘅人,4萬元絕對可以證明呢個人「有團火」。點解要係按金,而唔係攞咗就算?因為要盡量杜絕佢哋去打劫、攞綜援、用醫療。

首先,一個理性嘅人為錢去犯法,基本上係計數。值得就會做,如果唔值就唔做。而一般人最驚嘅犯罪活動,就係為錢嘅隨機暴力劫案,例如扑頭黨。好在為錢嘅隨 機暴力劫案回報率往往只有幾百元,所以只要政府話:「被裁定犯法嘅新移民,佢哋4萬元按金會被充公。」啲新移民就會計計數。

當然,如果一個新移民可以做上市公司主席,跟住做假數呃投資者好多千萬元,充公4萬元按金嘅阻嚇作用就真係唔大。不過,我都想擁抱呢個人做我哋一分子。

等新移民知難而退

再講防止新移民攞綜援。如果一個新移民真係山窮水盡,政府可以每個月發還某部份按金,上限設定為兩萬元。仲要好似炒孖展一樣,政府要個新移民喺某段時間內補 啲按金,否則會充公剩餘嘅,跟住遞解出境。咁樣新移民真係會三思,到時候,如果個新移民撈唔掂,對應該知難而退,返歸。

再講防止新移民用醫療。由於新移民 來港前要證明身體健康,所以如果一個新移民來港用醫療,一定係因為喺香港出事。「有團火」嗰種新移民多數係後生仔女,而後生仔女如果真係要用醫療,大多數 都係「災難式」嘅醫療需要,例如撞車。當然,有按金可以扣數,甚至可以強制性要求佢哋證明買咗醫療保險。不過大家要謹記,後生仔女永遠都係社會上最唔需要 醫療服務嘅一群。所以醫療問題應該唔會好大。

各位對移民政策有興趣嘅fan屎,相信你已經準備好鉸剪。希望你可以剪呢篇文章落嚟,為香港五十年後嘅未來, 諗吓我呢個「有團火按金」移民政策。

32 comments:

  1. Pak Man

    感謝你無償的建議,如果我係地產商,我會即刻:

    1.在九加二省招聘一百萬男女民工,每人月薪一千(而家既兩倍)來港工作,每天十二小時工作,免費提供住宿床位、膳食及交通,代付按金
    2.廉價租用政府空置居屋,及於西北農地起宿舍,放三層轆架床,每人佔用十五呎床位
    3.利用屬下巴士公司服務,運送員工上班
    4.以每月$3500服務費(低於港人$4000心理關口),壟斷所有清潔,保安及其他粗重工夫
    5.取替所有家庭外傭,因為僱主提供住宿及膳食,每月收取較低的$2500,
    6.引入大量妙齡少女,合法入境,唔怕差人拉,以每月$30000薦人費,供應予馬夫集團,自己唔上身,重振砵蘭街

    計埋蝕少少按金利息,平均一人一個月淨賺$1500,一百萬人,一年淨賺180億,仲發過依家做地產,感謝特區政府,感謝 Pak Man

    (後記:政府要每年多俾600億綜援)

    ReplyDelete
  2. too pessimistic.

    about the 60b social welfare spending.

    As for the 6 previous scenarios...

    Do you know how the people here will benefit?

    The 1 million of these people will be given hope to climb up. And they will climb up.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 無論細節係點, 大前提係一定要有更多新移民.

    大家睇下依窕d小朋友, 少年人, 有d無目標去啪丸, 有d只係識讀書且養尊處優, 有d受唔起挫折, 失敗, 怕辛苦, 覺得好多野係應該, 世界好似欠佢地好多.

    最近高考放榜, 大家睇下呢d高材生, 唔係家境特別富有, 有一個家道中落, 要靠自己教琴, 幫補家計, 過往亦有新移民的綜援戶. 所以, 唔係話d人係點. 香港政府想吸引什麼人, 政策都要配合. 困苦不是罪惡, 它可以迸發一個人的潛能. 大量撥款福利, 香港只有死路一條.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Pak Man,
    It is an interesting idea. A bit like a working permit that can be turned into a permanent passport. Looks like that the idea is based on a trust that the market forces will adjust themselves until equilibriums are attained. As for most of the free-floating systems, there could be a lot of volatility. In business transaction, economy thinking could work fairly well by and large. But for public administration sector, probably many "side" issues (political, societal, etc.) could be vexing hurdles to overcome. Or it might select people not having Li Ka Sing mindset given that the socioeconomic forces between HK and mainland have changed quite a lot in these decades. By the way, for the sake of brain storming, it would be interesting if every countries use this policy, then people on this globe can shop around where to live (assuming there is no longer any "territorial thinking" among countries) - United Earth.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Pak Man
    Pak Man

    Glad that you think my Plan will work (at least for the Tycoon):

    The beneficiaries of my plan:

    a)Tycoon: $18b pa

    b)Middle & Upper Class:
    cheaper service, save: 1x12x1=$12b pa
    business to build flat / run bus = 2x12x1=$24b pa

    The Sufferers:
    c)Lower class: at least 80% (0.8m) lost job => 0.6m families on dole => $60b pa dole (govt to pay, mainly by middle class, previous benefit offsetted to become loss)

    Actually before the lower class is on dole, there will be social turmoil beyond HKPF's control.

    PLA will step in
    ==> 1 country 1 system

    ReplyDelete
  6. 香港的困局,唔單止話好難搵到適合人材,而亦因為經濟轉型,本地都冇足夠低技術工種俾二百萬中下勞動人口。香港唔同紐約,係紐約搵唔到適合工作的美國人,可以隨時搬去其他城市工作及居住,真正人口自由流動。

    此外,當然仲有好多困難要解決,有興趣可到以下Blog Link,有詳細分析:

    http://pineapple-farm.blogspot.com/2007/06/vs.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. 你當年係唔係讀zip code 48104/48109 果間??

    ReplyDelete


  8. 當年係讀zip code 48104/48109 果間

    ReplyDelete
  9. My dearest 波蘿游 ...

    I don't know whether you have any children.

    But if you do, what kind of world do you want them to grow up in?

    Somewhere where it is vibrant? Where the people will be hungry?

    Or where people talk about how there are only 3 million jobs in HK. Therefore, if you let in 1 million people, there will be 1 million people unemployment.

    Does the world really work that way?

    If stopping immigrants is because of the Social Welfare system. THEN REFORM THE SOCIAL WELFARE SYSTEM!!!

    These people are hungry.

    These people will start new businesses.

    These people will be the one hiring our children in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Pak Man

    May I repeat as in my Blog: unlike NY & London, HKG is a close system. There's great barrier for existing low-skilled HKG'ers to move to other China cities to live & work there

    The lack of this 2-way free flow is the heart of problem. It takes time for young guy to evolve to Fat Lai and Superman Li. Before that, the low skilled HKG'ers will be expelled and get starved.

    Nowadays, the chance for an educated guy to evolve as Bill, Larry & Sergey is much higher than an illiterate guy to become Fat Lai and Superman Li.

    While there are now hundreds of self-make billionaire(US$) globally who are under 40. Could you name some with only high school qualification (excl voluntary drop outs) ?

    Think about it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I think your plan is a big conspiracy to rescue Kong-girls. :)
    Li Kashing, Cheng Yutong, both got started through rescuing a Kong-girl.

    But you know, they might not have contributed positively to HK's gene pool. i.e. the quality of the genes of their proeduce vs that of the mom's.

    So, i have a counter-proposal. i,e, immigration to improve our gen pool. maybe your suggestion should be to grant all the northern-mushroom right to live, if they manage to give birth to a baby. Because at least, there is one definable cirterium, i.e. external feature. For the northern mushroom selection process, it would be the collective effect of kong-men.

    seriosly. Tsang's suggestion is just a shameless attempt by a CEO to improve the scale of his company through non-organic process. remember Carly at HP? not all of these non-orgnaic growth succeed, in fact very few of them.

    the proper way to improve scale is through integration with the greater pearl delta. imho.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Sun Bin, I think I have to give you a lot of credits by pointing out one shortcoming of Pakman's immigration proposal,i.e. lacking consideration of improving HK's gene pool.

    Basically I agree with most of Pakman's ideas but obviously that's the point he didn't address much. And quite a crucial one.

    But I couldn't agree with what you said that to improve the gene pool, we have to grant all mainland girls(northern-mushroom???) the right to live, as long as they could give birth to babies.

    By saying so, you are assuming that mainland girls are superior to "kong-girls" (because you said they could improve the gene pool), and their "superiority" lies on only one factor: external feature.

    I couldn't take that assumption.

    Recently I did an interview with a young mainland guy who's graduated from Tsing Hua University. And he proposed that to improve HK's gene pool, why don't we give the right to live to, say the top 100 freshmen from each of the most prestigious mainland universities, regardless of their gender or external features?

    What we need is high quality man power. And obviously those young people fulfill our need.

    That sounds to be more reasonable.

    leona

    ReplyDelete
  14. leona,

    i was half-joking when i talked about gene pool. as i was more skeptical about the whole idea of gaining scale through 'merger and acquisition'.

    i quoted the mainland girl as an example. but the same could apply to the mainland boys marrying kong-girls.
    the underlying assumption is that, due to the economic difference (and other things such as various sort of 'freedom' such education, travel, etc). the natural selection process is that only those with "better" gene, guys or girls, will be selected (statistically). therefore, what i said is pretty much in agreement with what you pointed out.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ....continued..

    'external feature' is just one of the factors that is easy to agree. it can indeed convert into cash and economic power (e.g. for the film and modelling industry).

    in reality, the selection is done by each of the kong-man and kong-girl individually. they are responsible for who they marry. therefore, it is sort of a private decision, not unlike that of free market economy.
    and the criteria will be decided by each of the kong-men / kong-girl, whether it is external features or academic excellence, or aggressiveness advocated by pak-man.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Sun Bin, that sounds more convincing & it makes sense! Thank you for elaborating your arguments for me. Haha, looks like we are with each other on this point.

    Yeah, I agree with you that there's a natural selection process occurs across the border to attract quality mainlanders to come to hong kong. And when this natural selection goes well, there's no point to intervene it or it will be less efficient.

    But the problem is, don't you think such natural selection of quality people process goes too slow and the scale too small? And please don't forget the fact that on every single day, we absorb 150 mainlanders from the north whom have not been undergone any "selection process".

    The government is ought to do something, as pakman advocated.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Gene pool?

    Seriously?

    Eugenics?

    Come on. You kids are smart.

    You kids know you are smart.

    But so did Hitler.

    This is the kind of belief, and policy goals that led to the gas chambers.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Pakman, we don't have to go to the extreme.

    leona

    ReplyDelete
  19. Pak Man

    唔知你知唔知,而家每日150名的單程證入境國內同胞,已經用adopt緊你講既selection方法,好多為左再快D來港,俾左至少十幾萬,當然全部under the table,佢地都係"想盡辦法",先籌到咁多錢。好多偷渡到美國D同胞,一樣要籌十幾萬俾蛇。佢地都fufill你既criteria,想盡辦法移民。

    How‘s the result ?
    Look at the tragic event at Tai Po yesterday。
    Different people, similar stories !!

    ReplyDelete
  20. 單程證 is not my plan.

    I have written a piece specifically dealing with 單程證.

    Let me dig it up and show it to you.

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  21. let's me step back to my first comment. i do not agree with Tsang or Pakman. I think they are trying to be Carly Fiorina and there is no good criteria.

    However, the selection process (by marriage) is the most reasonable (and workable one), because everyone was given one vote (if you got marry once) and he has to invest his own marriage into it. It is enough stake for quality -- whatever that means.
    Also the risk is small, as a bad decision only affect one's own family. Whereas a bad decision by Tsang or Pakman would ruin the whole city.

    ReplyDelete
  22. @ pakman,

    the mechanism of natural selection does not neccesarily apply to "gene pool", as my first example about the 2nd generation of the superrich illustrated.

    however, i do believe in darwin and natural selection process, or more precisely, statistical selection (with a systematic biase).

    although i do not believe in eugenic, gas chamber is not the reason. objecting to eugenic citing gas chamber is no difference from Regina Yip's Hitler argument against democracy, logically.
    my reason against eugenic is mainly because i belive there is unpredictability in how gene interact and mutate (and that there are random processes involved, i believed). Therefore, promoting eugenic is controlling evolution with a criteria set by some person, not unlike the one set by Tsang or Pakman. No one can be sure he is always right.


    @leona,

    we need to be patient. 欲速则不达。
    150/7M is nothing. no wonder you see no visible impact. but if you examine these 50 or so immigrants by marriage (within the 150), i can be pretty sure that they are better than their match, based on the criteria of their match.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Pak Man

    請想想,如果同胞們諗盡辦法,又借又檔,合法非法,搏晒命先搵到門路,用黑錢或冒生命危險來港或去美國,佢地唔係你夢想個班最Hungry,最義無反顧既移民咩 ?點解你唔要佢地?佢地十幾萬都搵到,唔係比你要求只得四萬更加Hungry咩 ?

    我翻直政府這幾年統計資料,係幾萬名單程證入境同胞中,接近40%都係25至35歲女子,唔駛講,佢地都係中港婚姻另一半,即係我地港男自由戀愛的選擇。 They are spouses of Kong Man. So they are products of free marriage. I believe they both marry each other under their free will, though the free will means more than just love.

    And the result ?
    You know , I know

    ReplyDelete
  24. Sun Bin, I'm examining all your arguments again to make sure I'm not getting you wrong.

    - Like your argument on Eugenics vs Gas Chamber. It makes sense. Very reasonable.

    - Agree that marriage is a fair selection process, and it has lower opportunity cost compared to whatever determined by government.

    - As for "patience", however,I have little reservation.
    Singapore is not patient; Shanghai is not patient as well. They have very aggressive immigrant policies. We can't just sit there, do nothing, rely on natural selection process only!

    The impact of 150/7M may be not visible. But by 2008/9, there will be the first batch of mainland talents & professionals being granted right of abode in hong kong. That would be quite an impact. And it reflects that the "natural" process comes just too slowly.

    ReplyDelete
  25. leona,

    i guess we probably have to agree to disagree here. i incline to non-interference or minimum interference.

    we do not have to compete with singapore and shanghai, in the same game. and what they did are not neccesarily right.

    for example, HK has already attracted thousands of the brightest mainland-born PhD/MBA educated in the US.
    the MNC made that choice for HK.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Sun Bin, one reason why I opted for a more proactive immigrant policy is that, the overall quality of people who are moving in HK is less competitive (e.g. less educated) than those who are leaving. We are having a net loss of brains.

    Therefore a more proactive immigrant policy is suggested to off-set this.

    Agree it's fine to disagree.
    Otherwise the world will be super dull if everyone's agreeing with each other. Right?

    Good to have some constructive discussion with you here.

    ReplyDelete
  27. 心中有團火亦要保障人口質素!
    例:銅鑼灣塌天秤是哪間承建商?
    這間承建商在港股票有否上市?如有會否帶來怎樣後果?
    這間承建商以往既安全記綠許何?如果這間承建商安全不佳,作為勞工在這間公司做咪特別危險?該承建商要花更多成本在勞工保險?會否影響工程投標?而導致利潤減少?
    點解現今香港既建築技術,仍可發生塌天秤既事故?

    負面影響會否和210不相伯仲??1800有否以上風險?

    ReplyDelete
  28. leona,

    you said, "the overall quality of people who are moving in HK is less competitive (e.g. less educated) than those who are leaving.".

    i am not sure i agree with you. i am inclined to believe the opposite. i also think it is hard for you to prove your statement.

    you only saw the 150 immigrants per day. but maybe equally many have move in the opposite direct (of "lower quality", eg retirees, those who couldn't find work in HK, etc.).

    you also probably haven't counted the professors, bankers, consultants, executives who moved to HK to work.

    i am a big fan of Lee Kuan Yew and the singapore model. I think they are doing great and will continue to do so.
    but the same scheme might not be as appropriate for HK, and it may not be run as well by the HK bureaucrats. that is why i am more of a Taoist when it comes to issues like this.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Sun Bin, I can prove it, with figures.
    Actually I did an interview with a HKU lecturer who engages in HK's immigrant policy today, and he told me about the "overall population quality" thing.

    If I wasn't sure about my arguments I wouldn't say so.

    Perhaps I'll write something later. Could share it with you too. How should I let you know it's finished, though? It may take some days 'coz I'm working on something else...

    ReplyDelete
  30. i am actually quite suprised. it would be interesting to see his research or your write-up. it would also be interesting to see how he/you measure quality.

    do let me know when you have the finished your work.
    just click follow the link. i have a blog and an email there.

    ReplyDelete
  31. 我也是新移民。楼主的“自然选择”论非常有意思,也是我想说的。香港的人口政策和移民政策,是最为关键的一环。偏偏又是最少人去分析和提及的。

    在深圳也有类似的情况。深圳的人口数量和素质对其发展最为重要,但深圳从来不敢有任何统计,也不敢有任何预测,造成连现在深圳有多少人口都不知道,从700万到1500都有。深圳政府自己用大米消耗量估计是1200万。因为这些都和政策和政治环境相关。

    香港也有类似情况。人口政策无从把握,也无从预测,因为都涉及很敏感的政治问题。

    各位上述的分析很精彩,但我觉得漏了讨论一个因素,就是内地来港就读大学生的影响。按照规划,最终香港的大学学额20%都会给内地学生。而如果将来政策改变的话,还可以更多。

    这对香港的影响十分深远,但也是因为政治的原因,相关的人都非常低调,社会的讨论也极少。

    ReplyDelete
  32. warhammer gold warhammer money warhammer accounts tibia money tibia gold tibia item runescape accounts buy runescape accounts runescape money runescape gold runescape gp runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling cheap rs2 powerleveling runescape equipment buy rs equipment runescape runes cheap rs2 runes runescape logs cheap rs2 logs runescape items buy runescape items runescape quest point rs2 quest point cheap runescape questpoint runescape gold runescape items runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape items runescape accounts runescape gp runescape accounts runescape money runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling tibia gold dofus kamas buy dofus kamas wow power leveling wow powerleveling runescape questpoint rs2 questpoint Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling Hellgate money Hellgate gold buy runescape logs buy rs2 items cheap runescape items Hellgate London gold Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold runescape items rs2 accounts cheap rs2 equipments lotro gold buy lotro gold buy runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape runes lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape gold cheap rs2 powerleveling eve isk eve online isk buy runescape power leveling rs2 power leveling tibia gold tibia item runescape accounts Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold Scions of Fate Gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium SOF Gold Age Of Conan Gold AOC Gold ArchLord gold tibia money tibia gold runescape accounts runescape gold cheap rs2 powerleveling buy ArchLord gold DDO Plat Dungeons and Dragons Online Plat

    ReplyDelete