Monday, July 30, 2007

HSBC management comments on subprime

"we have sufficient provisions" - we'll see

"we are not big in california" - fine, what about other imploding areas

Both standard answers...

"we work with borrowers cashflow to let them repay their loans" - there is a million way to read into this. One, if assuming the worst, can say they are going to make a lot of loan repayment holidays to borrowers, just to make sure the loan is not going to go sour.

But what if the home owners goes negative equity, and walks away from the house?

I am ranting here. FOR I GOT MY ASS HANDED TO ME. dammit.


  1. Pakman Pls have a look on your good prediction result and become God of Light!

  2. yeah...

    saw that...

    man... i totally deserve that...

    I am depressed

  3. You are in pretty deep shit. Wondering what you are going to write for tomorrow.

  4. i am wondering that too. shit.

    severe case of writer's block...

    and 45 mins till deadline...

  5. PacMan

    When I read your column today, i already think HSBC will 大步檻過, you are such a super genie (not genius ah!), 超級燈神!!

    Please write in Apple forever, 淨看你的 column 已值回 $5 有餘.

  6. 單看Geoghegan今天的樣子已覺很有趣。他一改上次公布業績時的哭衰樣子,不時強調自己半年前答應過大家,自己會訓身處理次按問題,而家終於兌現承諾云云…..看見他那副得戚樣子,雖然叫人有點看不過眼,但那分自信又很有說服力。

  7. Dear M Cafe,

    Yes. Thats what freaked me out.

    I was watching Channel 8 on Cable (what else?)...

    When the first reporter, I think TVB asked about subprime, Geoghegan's reaction was so relaxed that I nearly passed out at my desk. Shit.

    Dear tintin,

    Its $6. And feel free to tell my boss about your feelings... hahahhaah yet *sigh*

  8. poor pacman,

    you must be out of touch with the market. :)
    my mom always pays $5, and the free tissue packs now pile up in her home.

    $6 is like paying $350 for taxi to chek lap kwok :) or $200 on AEL.

  9. Patman you are in trouble, yeah you are...hey but you are not in deep shit though.
    We are no GOD, no worry man, i still enjoy reading your article. You got to chill, keep going dude.

  10. I like your respond today....may I have a slice of your pizza please?

  11. Pakman,

    Don't get too upset about this as there remains too many uncertainties in the financial market in States subsequent to 30/6/07. Too early to tell if provision on sub-prime is sufficient.

  12. Pakman, 燈神又好, 股神又好..... 起碼都有參考價值..... 可必自慚形愧, 估錯野計錯數經常都出現, 最重要係自己袋左幾多野jei, 加油啦.

  13. actually, what you should have recommended (perhaps still valid now) is a long short strategy.

    long Hangseng, short HSBC.
    this would only short the ex-HK business of HSBC.
    but as US$ depreciates, this may not work (which probably explained in part the HSBC results this time)

  14. 1. Agree with Cory. Independent point of view is rarly seen these days.

    2. Sun Bin, is it making more sense to go for Stand Chart in this context? I am planning to do so. Any comment?

  15. 我地做節目,其實好多時都會睇錯,不過最重要係自己理據有無錯,如果無錯,就應堅持。我地覺得觀眾需要的是理據,不光是結論。努力做個專業的「財經演員」!

  16. Pakman, at this stage, will you advise us to hold HSBC shares for long term investment purpose? To what extent, do you think the troubles with the subprime market will affect the profitability of the HSBC group?

  17. 算啦.有賭未為輸,一日個專欄/個blog未摺埋,都唔可以蓋棺定論.


    我同你一樣,都係唔睇好Hey Sucker Banking Corporation,不過一注獨贏唔係今日買,而係等食月餅果陣先.

  18. I amoverjoyed as I had looked into the issue the other way round. You cannot just focus on one area and ignor lots of others. I will go to have a nice dinner and probably some of my earned money is from YOU!

  19. 細個老豆成日話,自己白痴攞嚟衰,唔會有人可憐,但閣下今次的經歷,告訴我我老豆的道理原來唔係啱哂

  20. Quick round up. I really do appreciate your comments. Lifted my depression somewhat.

    Sun Bin,

    Yes. I agree there could have been so many better ways than just shorting HSBC if I am bearish on US exposure, such as long Hang Seng and Short HSBC.

    To anon,

    I am happy someone made money off me. Did make a wrong call. Enjoy your meal. = )

    To Sun Bin,

    Maybe I should complain like those taxi drivers that refuses to give discount. And ask the govt to ban ppl selling newspaper for less that $6. hahhahaha

    To Cory,

    Thank you for recognizing my magical genie like qualities. Dammit. hahaha

    I am sticking by my puts.

    Yo Pulp,

    Mid autumn festival... The global liquidity withdrawal continues. Sounds about right around there if trend holds, for something to happen.

    To Perth,

    I think the next shoe that is gonna drop for HSBC is UK. But see when that will happen.

    As for Long term. I am more comfortable holding... yes you've guessed it... silver right now.

    To jh + wonderdummy,

    thanks dude.

    To andyw and all,

    Pizza on me anytime. Just give me a shout. Perhaps I could arrange one here at the Apple/Next building.

  21. 雖然這次匯豐事件你確實有點"瘀",但你不是神仙,不可能每次都中。相對與現今所有名嘴和專欄都只會叫你升破某價就買、跌破某價就賣的無棱兩可廢話,你敢於斬釘截鐵表明立場已經非常難得!


  22. You know least you stick to your call. There are a few so-called analysts (on TV and radio) who change their view daily. Let's see how you go in 12 months time.

  23. wonderdummy,

    do you mean STANDARD CHARTERED?

    i think this has no relationship to StdCh. the long-short strategy is designed such that all other variables are unchanged. i.e. HS is a good mirror for HSBC's ex-US business.

    taking StdCh would defeat the whole purpose.

    the only reason i am betting against pacman boy is that i still believe HSBC management is good. the risk pacman boy is taking is he discounted the whole HSBC management because he think HSBC made bad mistake in US. Even if he is very right, there is a quite likely opportunity that HSBC does well in areas not related to subprime.
    that is one of the reasons why shorting is always an extremely risky business. (the other/ bigger reason is that the cost is short is much higher than the cost to long, the 3rd reason is exposure is usually unlimited)

  24. 你的敢言已成為你的Selling point,輸了匯控,贏了收視,發覺愈來愈愛你了,繼續支持,撐爆你,孫柏文不死!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. 你的敢言已成為你的selling point,輸了匯控,嬴了收視,真是發覺愈來愈愛死你了,繼續支持,撐爆你,孫柏文不死!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  26. sun bin,

    Understand what you are saying and fully agree. HSBC is doing quite well in Asia. This leads me to go for Standchart which concentrates in Asia market and free from US sub prime issues. So, short HSBC and long Standchart instead of Heng Seng as an alternative for a medium term. Is it OK?

  27. wonderdummy,

    i don't think we are on the same page yet.

    you can certainly long stdchd, if you believe in its management and macro environment. i am not so sure, simply because i hadn't done the research myself. in the same spirit, BEA, DBS, etc. you can do it but make sure you do not short #5 elephant.
    but that is NOT what i was suggesting.

    what i was talking about is a way to put your money on your bearish wish on subprime, not something that is bullish on asia banking.

  28. another point.
    the long-short is only academic talk. i would not recommend any shorting on a mass media. because this is not something the 'layman' should be encouraged to handle.

    this is one of the reasons i commented on his post, not because pacman was right or wrong, he might well be right. but to ask people to short something, anything, in a mass media paper such as AD bears a lot of responsibility.
    i was constantly disgusted when i read those warrant salesmen proposing a warrant daily in these papers. if i am jimmy lai, i would fire all those warrant writers.

  29. to sun bin

    Much thanks for your input which is very enlightening. In any case, would prefer to avoid hsbc for a while.

  30. To Sun Bin,

    Any other newspaper asking their readers to put/short is irresponsible.

    All newspapers except Apple Daily.

    Because we have the smartest readers.

    All views, conflicting or otherwise must be presented. To say whether the media is "responsible" or not is so old media.

    And to play by old media rules means one will increasingly get out of touch with the people.

    But of course, this discussion is way off topic. = )

  31. hey,

    i thought i have been quite careful in my choice of word.
    i did not disagree with you

    i said
    1) calling short bears a lot of responsibility. (more than calling long)
    2) i am put off by those who does this "DAILY". you only did it once. :)

  32. hahahahah

    It is a good thing I don't make calls everyday!