Wednesday, July 25, 2007

「自瀆」文章 周年紀念

舊年今日，孫柏文寫過一篇題為《花旗國樓市將慘過八萬五》嘅文章。之後幾日，前輩王冠一先生，就寫咗篇題為《『自瀆』文章弄巧反拙》嘅文，用咗成篇文去提點小弟。

其中一篇被冠一兄點名提點嘅文章，就係舊年今日嗰篇《慘過八萬五》。今時今日，因為花旗樓市又真係未慘過「八萬五」時代嘅特區樓市，所以我在此承諾，會繼續向王冠一先生學習，將「自瀆文」嘅教訓銘記於心。出年今日，我會再檢討。

The article above, partly led to the article underneath...

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6 comments:

  1. AnonymousWed Jul 25, 10:10:00 pm GMT+8

    PacMan

    肥仔, 我真的愈來愈喜愛您了!! 敢於面對事實, 我想全港只有你一個寫作人如此有 guts, 把別人奚落的文章再次示眾. 敢於面對, 才有再進步空間.

    Ironically, 王大教授也好不了多少, 一年前開始, 已不斷看淡. 但股市偏偏升完又升, 大龍鳳做完一套又一套, 港美齊齊吹漲王大教授. 須知'過早看淡, 等於看錯'的道理啊.

    常常說, necessary and sufficient condition. 我們掌握的 macro 數據往往只是 necessary condition. Sufficient condition 往往是天曉得!

    其實, 短抄市況根本冇必贏方法. 此所以我對圖表派係抱skeptical態度的. 試想股市衹有升,跌, 牛皮, 用錯誤的方法得到正確答案, 可能性太大, 而偏偏這是最危險的. 有如賭場中有人揸往張路紙而連中數次, 話比你聽下舖必開莊或閒.

    反而長綫投資中, 價值投資法會經得起 empirical test. 方法亦並不複習, 你看東尼, 曾淵滄, warren buffet, 理論幾乎一致, 小弟亦由一萬幾千的savings 開始, 十年來儲了 US1M+ 的 asset.

    年輕的財經fans, 林森池先生的兩本着作不可不讀呀!

    記得你年初駡港交所 monopolised 嗎? 你有 point 不過冇題 fans 買番一注獨贏就有點對不起讀者了

    Anyway , Goldfinger, you've got balls!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousWed Jul 25, 11:37:00 pm GMT+8

    林森池話︰

    「貴金屬」
    - 不保值, 只係博有另一個傻瓜同你買
    - 不會產生現金流和利息

    膠手指還是要一注買實貨白銀喂白蟻？

    燒蟻燒出銀？
    有一些奇聞軼事，說白蟻可以吃白銀，之後捉住白蟻熔煉可以得到白銀，甚至白銀分毫不少。這些都是傳說而已。

    事實上，白蟻在覓食過程中，確實可以用蟻酸溶解包括白銀在內的金屬、水泥等等，雖然其破壞遠不及對磚木結構和純木結構建築的破壞嚴重。但大部分被白蟻融蝕的金屬是不會留在白蟻體內的，更不用說毫釐不少了。

    ReplyDelete
  3. pakmanThu Jul 26, 08:16:00 pm GMT+8

    hey tintinbright...

    As Szeto Wah once said, "a car without a rear view mirror will crash" hahhahah

    Anyhow, I agree with grasping "necessary and sufficient condition", as my failure to understand when conditions gets to the sufficient stage, I am a very poor trader. As I am sure you have noticed. = )

    For HKEx, yes, I should have added, "because it is a stupid monopoly, whose status as a monopoly will not change, I suggest 一注獨贏買港交所"

    Me and 利世民 always joke how we should set up a "rent seekers fund". Buying stock in monopolies.

    Finally, to both tintinbright and 前打金仔, it is both true that gold is an asset that does not make income nor pay interest.

    But every now and then, people's confidence in paper money will wane so much that gold and silver will be their refuge. And we are approaching such a time now.

    When the crash comes. I, as someone who witnessed the dot com boom first hand, will be buying tech stocks with both hands and feet. =)

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousFri Jul 27, 11:59:00 am GMT+8

    不要叫人買實銀啦。
    如果話貨幣崩解，解決問題都要靠貸貨幣本身，不會是任何商品，因為以物易物的市場是很高交易成本︰例如孫老攞舊實銀去賣，如果原銷售商不回購你都無計既，賣比一般人時，可是貴金屬成色鑑定不是人人都識的。

    ReplyDelete
  5. pakmanMon Jul 30, 01:21:00 am GMT+8

    When silver is on parabolic rise, 實銀 will be sort after.

    So no problem selling...

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousMon Jul 30, 11:51:00 am GMT+8

    資源商品價格當然會有人炒升跌，但不是基於貨幣崩解原因，所以買實貨已不成理由。

    ReplyDelete

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