Sunday, July 22, 2007

滙豐今次業績應冇事

喺特區主板上市嘅公司,每年都要公佈兩次業績。相信作為《金手指》fan屎嘅你都知,一次係全年業績,一次係半年業績。


喺特區裏面,有一個財經口水 佬,對花旗國樓市極度悲觀,而同時因滙豐(005)做咗好多花旗國樓宇按揭,所以都非常睇淡滙豐。相信作為《金手指》fan屎嘅你都知,呢個口水佬就係孫柏文。不過今日就當爆冷,因為我相信滙豐喺7月30日,公佈嘅半年業績,應該會冇事。


大家可能會話:「孫柏文轉軚!」冇轉軚!等我慢慢解釋。雖然滙豐確實擁有好多花旗國次按債券,不過我相信佢哋揸嘅係啲有「攞錢」優先權嘅「優質」AAA、AA級嘅次按債券。

分析員睇倒後鏡揸車

如 果大家記得,今年2月大家第一次聽到「次按債券」呢樣嘢,係因為次按債券當中,冇「攞錢」優先權嘅「劣質」BBB級債券爆煲。當時,AAA、AA級嘅次按 債券係冇事。

大家要記得,滙豐計半年業績嘅截數日,係6月30日。同日,滙豐亦正式進入公佈業績前一個月嘅silent period(沉默期),唔准講嘢。咁點解我會話業績冇事?左邊為大家提供反映花旗國AAA同AA級次按債券價格嘅走勢圖,大家就會見到直至6月30日, AAA同AA級次按債券冇乜點跌。所以反映滙豐直至6月30日狀況嘅半年業績,應該會冇事。

今日見到有投資銀行,調高滙豐半年盈利預測同目標價,孫柏文絕對可以理解。業績係倒後鏡,呢個分析員靠睇倒後鏡揸車,果然藝高人膽大,小弟敬佩、敬佩!



11 comments:

  1. Pak Man

    點解你好似D財經演員咁,講得咁隱晦,何謂冇事,meaning growth at:

    a)-20 to -10%
    b)-10 to 0%
    c)0% to 10%
    d)10% to 20%
    e)others - please specify

    Pick your choice

    ReplyDelete
  2. hahahha

    Hey Pineapple,

    You caught me dodging the question. =p

    But I would say this. No matter how the results turn out for Q2 for HSBC.

    ALL EYES ON FORWARD GUIDANCE.

    Check out the ABX index, all time lows... again...

    ReplyDelete
  3. 十流分析仔
    (做網頁,包括BLOG,最大失誤是長流流的scrolling,令人有失去重點的感覺!)

    做分析,好傪係流於偏頗,只看一面,不見整體。

    如有所謂分析仔睇一隻綜合企業如和黃,只看她的單一業務,大叫一注獨贏,和黃。

    如一間在全球營運,業務遍佈歐亞美洲(平均分佈盈利能力及資產),只單單看其單一市場的美國業務,大叫沽售曰曰。不認識她,還了以為她只在美國從事單一次按業務?

    雖然,股市的炒賣,往往係非理性的,一些普通人(包括所謂分析仔),只看一點,忽略整體,一間跨國企業,當然,在環球眾多環節中,會有失誤;從另一角度,單單購入中國----交通銀行及平安保險,帳面上獲利1000億,看到這裡,你會大叫一注獨贏嗎?惟我不會,由於這個投資只是單一,而且這只是其中一點,帳面獲利千億,有什麼用丫!

    買股(真正投資者),本質是長線資本增值,不要單單只看一點,或短線。2007年6月17日,睇完星期日檔案,介紹在中環刷鞋的明哥(今年57歲),

    明哥講自己在70年代股災後,已沒有再接觸股票,現在,連報紙的投資版都唔睇了(心死),當然,七十年代贏到快錢,

    easy come, easy go.

    明哥都好勁,七十年代,已去哂西歐及埃及,曾經有過兩間樓及一架跑車,現金100萬.

    明哥擔心,現在2007年,又是人人講股的年代,有少少擔心,明哥又曰:現在的高股價,只是人們用錢托出來的....

    我都有好多部份同意明哥講的,不過,若明哥當年在70年代,買入的是匯豐,今年2007年,會改寫明哥的歷史.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 我相信明哥當日的投資,必定有若干巴仙立心不良(高位沽售),但若明哥持的是8號仔, 結果又點 ? "運"係好緊要架 !

    ReplyDelete
  5. To my fav 經濟學巨人...

    You must do very well in the market.

    Anyhow, thanks for sharing 明哥's experience.

    As for my call on Hutchison, after looking into its business. The only part I think was not priced into the stock was the changing of prospect of 3.

    Its shipping, retail, energy, property and subsids are pretty much priced in (although I would give Husky a higher valuation myself)

    Also, 3's problem for Hutch is that every quarter it doesn't perform, there will be PE ratio multiple contraction as ppl think the company's management is stupid. So once 3 is turned around, PE ratio should increase too.

    But of course, 3 is not a big part of Hutchison. right 巨人?

    As for HSBC. US$50b in subprime loan. And you think only the mortgages will sour?

    You think a global withdrawal in liquidity caused by rising lending standard will not hurt this bank (esp in frothy UK)?

    Well, what is US$20b between tolerant shareholders in HK... "Only" 2 years of profit.

    You try to have a blue chip with NO PROFIT FOR 2 years. You will see all break loose.

    Don't ask me how HSBC will do. Ask those executives who are jumping tship like rats off the titanic.

    But once again, thanks for sharing 明哥's experience.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 股神畢菲特:別人貪得無厭, 自己要識得驚;別人怕得要死, 自己要奮勇進取。
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

    ReplyDelete
  7. 我 set HSBC
    在2007年的目標價:200蚊

    Every Dog has his dog.
    不是由於今次次按問題,我才用這句話.

    我由1999年,持有匯豐,不斷增持,一路以股代息,在多年持有中....分析員的BUY, SELL, BUY, SELL....看多了.

    在多年的經歷裡,我只要有一點好重要,係生存,大牛,你會歉她砲得慢,大麃來時,你就知....

    1997年時,匯控只是一間盈利高度集中香港及英國的大銀行(我並不認為好國際化).

    現在盈利能力在各洲各佔三分一,資產的確稍為傾向以歐洲資產為多(over 40%),與歷史有關.

    我會認為HSBC的體格比CITIGROUP更強,匯控能進佔世界第一大銀行,我會認為只是a matter of time,亦不會太遠!

    當然,其餘的,如
    1)公司管治
    2)公司透明度
    3)對股東公平(年年可觀股息可見)
    4)最重要,沒有單一大股東(世界級的先決)

    是一隻可以長久持有的股票.

    譚SIR曾講,只持有一間公司的股票,好危險,並舉了HK TELCOM(香港電訊)為例子,惟HKT沒有以上第四點(當時為英國大東為大股東,嚴重影響公司決策,並作出一個致命的決定).

    For people who wish to know more about HSBC, I would recommend this
    http://a248.e.akamai.net/7/248/3 ... history_feb2004.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  8. Every Dog has his date才對

    ReplyDelete
  9. every dog has his day ar, come on, of course a dog can still date a bitch on his day

    ReplyDelete