Thursday, July 12, 2007

樓泡集團 反枱內訌

簡直係一齣杜琪峰作品。一個已經被重重包圍嘅賊巢,噚日,有兩個賊忍唔住,反枱。大叫:「我哋唔玩,你死你事,我哋去自首!」呢兩個賊,就係穆廸同 標普。黑社會,就喺呢幾年,憑財技吹大花旗國樓市泡沫嘅利益集團。

一個入籍花旗國不久嘅新移民,月薪只有1500美元,居然可以毋須首期,用70萬美元買 間屋,變成債仔。

放債嘅中介人,話做足功課,搵過「獨立」估價員去估價,話間屋嘅價值,遠比70萬高。呢個估價員知道,如果話間屋唔值70萬,下次就會冇 放債中介人畀生意,跟住被淘汰。

試問有幾多估價員因為咁被淘汰?遺留下來嘅估價員,又可以幾「獨立」?

中介人放債畀千千萬萬個債仔之後,就走去投資銀行, 問佢哋有冇興趣代債仔還錢。等中介人收佣,之後嘅利息收入,就同中介人無關。投資銀行當然樂意接受,因為佢哋都係中介人,都係賺個佣。投資銀行接收呢啲按 揭之後,就將佢哋嘅利息收入結合,跟住將結合咗嘅利息收入流,再以收錢次序分成不同等級嘅投資債券。每個月第一批收到嘅錢,會畀優先嘅債券,排最後嘅就可 能冇錢收。因為呢啲債券從按揭收入衍生出嚟,所以係「衍生工具」。

投資銀行話呢啲債券,特別係優先收錢嘅債券「好安全」。因為已經搵過「獨立」嘅風險評級 公司,例如穆廸同標普睇過,佢哋話係AAA、AA、A。大家都知道,一間公司出債券借錢,穆廸同標普會「金睛火眼」咁睇晒間公司盤數,先至會出評級。不 過,呢啲按揭債券衍生工具嘅評級方法,就非常唔同。

為穆廸同標普擔心

基本上,啲投資銀行去穆廸同標普,叫佢哋為衍生工具出評 級嘅時候,就會提供埋未來宏觀經濟走勢。例如,投資銀行設定未來每年樓價升10%,穆廸同標普就會根據提供走勢,話啲按揭債券「好安全」。因為就算係月薪 得1500美元嘅新移民,都會飯都唔開,去供樓。

就係咁,有好多高息「好安全」債券出現。令更多資金湧入樓市。樓市進一步上揚,債券更「安全」。

不過當所 有要買樓嘅人已經買咗樓,地產發展商又不斷起新樓,泡沫就爆。

冇畀過首期嘅債仔斷供。冇人會理穆廸同標普出評級嘅時候,話只係根據投資銀行提供嘅未來走勢 出評級。大家睇到嘅,只會係AAA、AA等嘅英文字母。如果喺1999年,我同你講話科網股爆破嘅時候,表面上無關嘅會計師行Arthur Anderson會執笠,你一定話我黐線。

真係為穆廸同標普擔心。

6 comments:

  1. If you read Fiasco by Frank Partnoy, ratings of derivatives/structured products are pretty much meaningless. Banks do have a way to make high risk stuff look safe, or part of it to be safe, thus getting AAA rating. There were also fine prints telling you that the rating only applies to the safe part of the products, but no one read it...

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  2. And the worst thing is...

    the bank's private bankers (ie rich client sales) sell these products with a simple pitch...

    "These are AAA or AA... and look how much they yield more than other AAA or AA products!"

    Hope, Greed, Fear and Panic.

    Truly, there are nothing new under the sun.

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  3. Sometimes they even sell to insurance companies or states... which creates an even bigger problem. Banks won't care about things blowing up after 3mo or 3yrs since they have collected the fee already, when they sold the junk.

    People seriously need to learn the phrase "too good to be true".

    ReplyDelete
  4. 柏文兄,

    昨天電郵的事,唔該哂!

    呢個情形就像今天所有大行同時調高中資金融股目標價及提高中資金融股評級時,你同人講話中資股爆破嘅時候,國企都會執笠一樣,D人一定話你黐線。

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  5. It is just the beginning of the story. The further downfall of the property market will squeeze out investor from investing into those high bond yield. Finally, a self-fulfilling prophecy will become a full-fledge disaster.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 馬沙...

    anytime. = )

    Chung...

    I agree!

    ReplyDelete