Tuesday, July 31, 2007

滙豐出業績 明燈又靈驗

Yesterday... Depressed...

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噚晚約7點,經常喺理財版《敏妮Talk》出現嘅股王A走過我張枱,見我食緊個厚批pizza,就問我:「有pizza唔call我?」

我望一望佢,捧起個盒,答:「唉…隨便攞。」股王A跟住問:「孫柏文, 乜你唔係減肥咩?」

今次我連望都冇望佢,淨係神情呆滯咁望住電腦,答:「唉…我好depressed…要食啲comfort food。」

股王A再問:「係咪因為今朝你叫人一注獨沽賣滙豐,跟住4點半滙豐出嘅業績,好勁呢?」我都未答,股王A就繼續:「滙豐股價喺倫敦好勁喎,已 經升到143蚊。」

嗰一刻,我只能從塞滿pizza嘅口中答:「唉…」

股王A跟住話:「你做傳媒呢行做耐啲,就會明白唔係唔可以做forecast,不過 最好係將forecast喺公佈數據之前出街。例如,如果聽日有中央銀行要議息,你又覺得佢會有變動,最好就今日篇文已經出街。因為如果同日出,而你又 錯,咁就會好『火羅』。」

『火羅』。

真係『火羅』。

絕對抵打

噚日,4點20幾分開始,世民兄企咗喺我後面,同我一齊望住電腦螢幕上港交所嘅網站,我隻食指就喺度重 複又重複咁㩒個瀏覽器refresh掣。到4點26分,港交所嘅網站就顯示滙豐控股(005)嘅中期業績摘要。我當然第一時間開嚟睇。

睇 咗陣,世民兄問:「點呀?英雄定屎蟲?」我搖住頭答:「我定係滙豐?」世民兄:「你啦梗係!」

我答:「滙豐盈利升咗25%」世民兄問:「係咪有水份或者非 經常收益?」我:「係,不過就算撇除非經常性收益,盈利都升13%。就算係啲最樂觀嘅分析員預測,都係預期得11%、12%,今次我真係大鑊。」

世民: 「有咁多非經常性收益,係咪賣倫敦總部嘅錢?」差不多要哭嘅我:「仲未入數!」

世民:「你真係大鑊。」

今期特區興「數碼欺凌」cyber- bullying,噚晚我上網睇吓啲人嘅反應,簡直就係「數碼圍毆」cyber-assault。不過我都要承認,絕對抵打。雖然我stand by my call,不過今日真係抵打屎忽,無從還擊。


11 comments:

  1. Ha Ha Ha!
    Fortunately I did not believe in your view and I've bought 3 mil HSBC warrant yesterday morning.
    Hope you didn't loose too much.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 自瀆文章,何必獻醜。

    ReplyDelete
  3. Lost a lot.

    Got killed.

    Congrats on your good call.

    If it was the other way round, I too would have no sympathy for you.

    As for 自瀆文章... As of right now. No orgasm.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 您估下會唔會有人0係google打「一注獨沽」四個大字,而您篇文會好似您之前咁講會成日0係search engine排第一呢?同埋會唔會人地d子子孫孫會睇倒姓孫既人寫野果時,都會諗起您呢?仲有您會唔會叫其他blogger link 您篇文,令您篇文會排google既第一呢?您又會唔會鳴謝番 D blogger呢?我問問而已,因為我成日睇您寫既文架都,多謝。努力寫多D文俾我地睇呢,我會繼續睇架。

    ReplyDelete
  5. 有困難,有壓力,正常,

    做人或公司一樣,人人都可以做到,駛鬼你咩?

    唔可以,只會永遠游唔出鯉魚門!

    只要HSBC可以降服美國業務,三年內,一定成為全球第一大金融機構!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Your article is published in newspaper. You need to respect the readers when you are giving some "outstanding" comments, especially on such big controversial topic. It is no harm to be confident on your analysis but no speculation. Keep performing such "stupid" comments will only ruin your reputation. Just do not do it even again.
    Good Luck!

    ReplyDelete
  7. 今日個市跌成700點,你唔使做明燈啦!

    ReplyDelete
  8. 作為財經評論人,只要是獨立分柝不是嘩眾取寵就得啦。正如冠一兄今天所講,昨天市況不能分勝負,次按呢個炸彈可能大到你唔信。如果唔係,阿薯仔上個禮拜尾都唔駛出口術喇。如果一爆,匯豐可能要增加千億撥備。昨日大戶借大小象引你入局,今日先致點起藥引。根據九七經驗,第一個浪唔死得人,第二三浪先欏散戶命。小心山火!

    ReplyDelete
  9. to anon,

    Dammit! you are right, if you go to google and search 一注獨沽, MY PIECES comes up first, second third fourth etc! shit... I better be right down the road.

    To 經濟學巨人,

    betting against me has been somewhat profitable so far in my call for HSBC. good luck!

    To tiger,

    I promise to try not to make anymore stupid comments.

    BUT I WILL PROBABLY BREAK IT. hahahah can't help la.

    To 小周,

    Hard to say... Cable's Ching Jer feels the same way you do. Esp about yesterday's 455 pts increase on low volumn.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I used to be your column reader, unlike other writer, you have own view point. But, when I read your recent column, I found 2 problems. 1) You repeated your comment many time across several day 2) You forecast are not based on solid analysis...e.g. HSBC...it is like buying Big/Small.

    ReplyDelete
  11. To Anon,

    I disagree.

    I believe I did as much analysis with PUBLIC information available as possible.

    When disclosure levels are such that no one knows who holds what securities, yes, playing the market right now is like Big Small.

    Second. repeats.

    Well, it is just message repetition to make sure the message sinks into the head of people.

    BUT COME BACK!!!!

    plz plz plz read my stuff again.

    *boo hoo hoo* :_(

    ReplyDelete