Friday, August 03, 2007

多謝冠一兄！

多謝王冠一兄嘅安慰，正當孫柏文被網友打到口腫面腫之際，冠一兄用文字出嚟扶一扶我，孫柏文深感多謝，而令我安慰嘅一句，就係冠一兄話星期一沽滙控，勝負孰未可料！

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12 comments:

  1. AnonymousFri Aug 03, 06:57:00 pm GMT+8

    OMG,
    柏文, 自從睇咗你篇一注獨贏買白銀之後一路都有留意你, 皆因我自03年後都係金銀大好友, 但近排愈睇你寫嘢講嘢愈來愈唔對路, 人紅咗骨頭輕咗? 好多時候你啲稿都冇比心機寫, 分析更膚淺得離譜, hsbc 會因為suprime 出事見到112? 你有冇估計過hsbc 係呢個sector 佔比重多少?而美國(不是北美, 唔好拉埋加拿大嚟講)業務又佔hsbc 的整體多少%? back to fundamental, 美國經濟真係有問題? 咁ipod 賣成點? ford 又點解會賺錢?

    唔比心機分析唔緊要, 起碼你個欄都重識make noise, 但連地獄燈霸你都會多謝, 我真係有d 睇你唔起囉. 錯唔緊要, 懶都唔怕, 但 on 9 就真係死得啦. 願好自為之

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  2. 馬沙Fri Aug 03, 07:34:00 pm GMT+8

    美國第十大按揭貸款商American Home Mortgage宣告破產，成為今年第2家倒閉的房貸公司，印證次按危機已蔓延至信貸質素較佳的按揭巿場。行政總裁Michael Strauss表示今天是營運最後一天。該公司 本 周初稱未能籌得足夠資金營運，無法批出的按揭貸款價值最少7.5億美元。

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  3. AnonymousFri Aug 03, 10:19:00 pm GMT+8

    算喇, 你起碼敢叫人沽, 好過其他講股佬淨係跟外圍.

    不過叫人沽5仔就啜核d, 下次睇淡d大野就叫人唔好渣算喇. 唔係帶碌狼牙棒上電視都唔掂.

    Anyway, I support you!!

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  4. GoGoLife BlogSat Aug 04, 12:01:00 am GMT+8

    你錯在不是話一注獨沽匯豐...你一早講左7月前佢係次按唔會太差...真正的問題會在下半年發生...你今日錯得太離譜的是...使唔使轉車軑轉得咁快呀...毫無性格...匯豐既業績好...唔代表佢真係可以解決到次按問題...你寫出黎...升左一日...你就立即轉軑...咁第二時人地點信你講野呀...你最多咪修正下囉...話佢新開發市場做得好...會唔跌咁多...你而家咁樣寫...真係自己打自己..."左一巴右一巴"

    1年目標既咁...那怕1日既時間呀...

    p.s.睇左你星期三既Money Cafe...講得好有道理的...不過我都希望你係錯的...因為一爆...真係死得人多...

    再p.s..講得愈風騷..可能係有愈大既危機..(裝輕鬆)

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  5. AnonymousSat Aug 04, 02:07:00 am GMT+8

    我堅持2007年，匯控股價必見200。

    其實，香港有好多「所謂分析員｣，經常以美國經濟放大評論一些公司，如HSBC，冇錯，美國是經濟大國，影響好大，惟放諸歐亞美三大洲都平均有業務及資產平均分佈而言，美國的根本只是：

    HSBC > 美洲業務 >其中一部分的業務（次按）

    2005年中，我身為HSBC股東，已經聽到HSBC講，美國樓市已放緩！

    當街邊的婆婆、公公、及一流分析員等，同你講，美國次按對匯控影響曰曰……

    你可以放心長HOLD匯控。因為這問題已一早反映了！

    只可以講這些所謂分析員，連year book最基本的資產及盈利分佈情況（分析最基本的）都冇看到，得出：

    一注獨沽，匯控（由於她的美國次按）

    多問一句，其他的業務呢？

    若次按佔其盈利比重好大，資產比較好多，以上的言論是對的。

    而這些分析員，經常強調美國，原因乃這些分析員，可能曾經在美國生活，比較了解美國情況，故成日講美國的影響！

    井底之蛙，不知天高地厚。

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  6. pakmanSat Aug 04, 02:44:00 am GMT+8

    經濟學巨人...

    Go buy some calls.

    I have bought puts.

    200 hahahahahah

    It is no longer a US subprime lending story.

    It is not even a mortgage problem story.

    IT IS A GLOBAL CREDIT CRUNCH.

    Once again, go buy some calls.

    Cheers!

    Shuen

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  7. AnonymousSat Aug 04, 03:38:00 am GMT+8

    妖!半夜見美股跌百9幾就跳出嚟hahaha 話自己買咗put.....定喺你話之前put落到hsbc出咗業績都冇止蝕平倉? 若果真係, 我諗你真係唔係一個適合在投資市場搵食ge 人.....

    cre 咩 dit 咩 crunch?

    其實你哋d所謂分析員究竟分析啲咩? 呢幾年個市究竟升咩你哋知唔知?

    若果個經濟版重係我睇, 真係叫肥佬剷咗你同燈霸個專欄好過, 廢事害死啲讀者.
    食豬紅疴黑屎呀細佬!

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  8. pakmanSat Aug 04, 04:23:00 am GMT+8

    its之前put落到hsbc出咗業績都冇止蝕平倉 hahaaaahaa

    still underwater...

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousSat Aug 04, 11:59:00 am GMT+8

    唔跌（美國金融股），匯控邊處有機會壯大丫．．．．．

    危機 ＝ 機遇

    問題係，有冇本錢生存，可以存活，存活，就可以吞埋他人的業務．

    次按問題，已１００％反映在匯控自２００５年以後股價走勢上，

    人人都知的問題，根本冇可能發展成為金融危機！

    但好似中國國企股，互控對方股票，依靠對方股價上升作為收入（非固定），

    接着報喜，為他日埋下炸彈，但冇人講．

    福禍吉凶，按道家的說法，完全沒準，而且福禍相依，看起來是福，沒準走到後來反到是禍。

    ReplyDelete
  10. pakmanSun Aug 05, 01:11:00 pm GMT+8

    to anon,

    I am sure you are a silver bug partly because you know we will be hit by a tsunami of money coming from America.

    Which of course is caused by some sort of crisis and panic.

    My call on HSBC is not simply a call on its N American mortgage business. It is on its entire operations, esp Europe.

    Also, my thanks for 王冠一 is sincere.

    Dear 馬沙,

    Check out the Cramer video.
    He must be hearing something over at all the various bond desks.

    Dear Blog Search,

    The result announcement was all about guidance. The key boost for HSBC is that management seems to have given the impression that the problems are contained.

    That was why I said results are fine, but the future is not. Even in my original piece saying the results will be fine.

    It is a tough put so far. I am sticking with it.

    Shuen

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  11. CatitudeMon Aug 06, 01:59:00 am GMT+8

    作為一個每月定額入匯豐的小股民, 我就平常心睇匯豐的升跌。但作為一個專業公關, 卻有一點不吐不快: 柏文兄, 睇得出你係一個有heart人, 咁既然勝負未知, 又何必繼續執著於一次判斷呢?

    若真係衰左, 咁你都認左啦, 咪move on 囉, 仲有人笑咪由佢囉, 笑得幾多次、幾多日丫? 你又駛乜自己三五七時拎返出黎講, 連其他人瘀你的都自己貼返出黎呢? 但若然你日後會贏, 到時先拎返出黎講丫; 呢幾日撐你o既, 你可以先收起, 到贏時一次過曬返出黎都未遲; 你而家曬, 咪又再remind人地有件咁o既事。要重修你的聲名, 唔在乎你對一件往事有幾在意, 而在於你黎緊講出口o既o野喇。

    塊面既然散緊瘀, 就毋須繼續自摑。金融市場起跌, 如同企業形象, 邊處衰左唔一定要o係返o個處企返起身, 總之在某處贏返就得啦。柏文兄, 止蝕 move on吧!

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  12. pakmanMon Aug 06, 02:37:00 am GMT+8

    Dear Carla,

    1. I stand by my call

    2. The more I play up the attacks on me today, when the day I am proven correct arrives. My "told you so" would be that much louder. hahahahaha...

    We live in the digital formaldehyde age, no point pretending the attacks on my call, indeed attacks on me doesn't exist, when all of it can be found one click away from google. Might as well roll with the punches.


    3. If you are dollar averaging into HSBC. And you are truly confident on HSBC's LONG TERM FUTURE. You should welcome the fall that will come in the next 12 months = ) You can buy more of it this year for the same amount of money.

    I think of the same way towards my silver holdings.

    ReplyDelete

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