Friday, August 24, 2007

撤銷「一注獨贏買和黃」


噚日,和黃(013)公佈07上半年業績。對孫柏文嚟講,用兩個字總結,好差。

大家可能會話:「和黃業績好似合乎預期喎,點解你會話好差?」和黃業績,只係合乎市場預期,而唔係我嘅預期。我喺舊年11月22日叫大家「一注獨贏買和黃」,有效12個月嘅目標價仲定喺100元,即係比建議當日,和黃開市價嘅71.95元,高39%。

孫柏文用得「一注獨贏」呢四個字,和黃就唔可以只係交番「合乎市場預期」畀我。就算唔係大紅大紫,都要一鳴驚人。

傷心:業績冇驚喜

當 時,我叫大家買和黃係因旗下嘅3,拋棄以前嘅典型電訊硬膠收費模式,收費方法進行文化大革命,推出「無線寬頻上網服務」叫X-Series。我當時覺得X -Series應該可以令3化腐朽為神奇,而因我對3嘅樂觀預期,當時股價絕對未反映,所以建議大家去買。

不過,噚日睇和黃業績,喺3最先推出X- Series嘅愛爾蘭同前宗主國市場,已簽合約形式嘅客戶增長數量,只有3%增長。就算X-Series服務,由推出至今口碑雖好,不過上唔到客就係上唔 到客。原先,我仲估和黃業績報告當中,將會最令我傷心嘅係佢哋話手上有好多次按投資,就算3救得番,股價都要下跌。不過佢哋冇,但係3都係唔得。

以前我曾經講過,因為「無線寬頻上網服務」X-Series嘅收費模式,已經係3G電訊服務可以畀顧客嘅最終極方案,所以如果X-Series救唔到3,3G本身真係一個冇得做嘅生意。

沽貨:因上唔到客

我唔知道X-Series唔好賣,係因其他例如WiFi嘅無線寬頻上網方法吸引啲, 定係因為X-Series要人用手機上網,而手機始終都唔好用,不過上唔到客就係上唔到客。

雖然,離開目標價有效限期仲有好幾個月,不過今日,我要撤銷 「一注獨贏買和黃」嘅建議。用噚日和黃77.2元收市價計算,係有錢賺(7.3%),不過輸咗機會成本,如果你係因為我嘅建議買咗和黃,今日就係時候放。

17 comments:

  1. 唉....肥仔文,如果你在發表”一注獨贏,和黃”之前,問問小弟,我諗,你唔會落得今天自己拆自己招牌的下落!

    http://www.entfun.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=146929&fpage=1&highlight=&page=3

    不過,我認為今年你會拆多一次招牌,一注獨沽,匯豐.

    你都係諗諗如何下台及致詞....

    ReplyDelete
  2. 新經濟學巨人?

    what happened to the old one? hahahaa

    got banned?

    and back up the truck and buy HSBC! you have $200 price target remember?

    hahahahah

    ReplyDelete
  3. When you wrote about this, did u check is your friends around you using 3, smartone, pccw or others.

    I remember Peter Lynch told us to kick the tire. I myself did not see more people use their service.

    Regarding HSBC, I want to know what do you think about the official QDII money will come to buy 1, 13, 5, 330, and other better managed blue chips.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 一注獨贏買孫柏文冇發達
    多謝孫明燈

    What is the difference between you and Uncle six. I can't tell.

    You suggested "一注獨沽匯豐" and "一注獨贏和黃". For the one who follow you, they loss a lot. And you loss nothing but just clean your ass and go.

    ReplyDelete
  5. You are such a green boy kept saying how good was 13's 3G...

    You have been making me sick.

    How come you such an "expert" believed 13's 3G would be profitablem in view of its highest set up cost and outdate technology...

    The way you comment on HSBC is still not too bad.

    You have not been making any sense in talking about 13 in year...

    No worry, be happy but you are fading out!

    ReplyDelete
  6. To Frankie,

    HK's 3 is under HTIL.

    And they are crap. really crap.

    The reviews from UK (yes from friends too) has been raving.

    13 continues to disappoint.

    To Lorpat,

    Well... grab an airsick bag when you read my column.

    Fundamentally, wireless internet is all about user experience and whether they choose one connection vs another boils down to 4 things.

    1. Speed of connection
    2. Billing procedure
    3. Hardware and user interface
    4. Substitutes

    X-Series is struggling with 3 + 4.

    Making you sick. Well... I can only hope that you keep on reading, but to avoid a "Roman incident" hahahha I have no idea.

    Finally to Dick Me,

    HSBC is lower than when I suggested to sell.

    and

    Hutchison is higher than when I suggested to buy.

    Check your numbers before you go to someone's blog to take a dump. Ass.

    ho ho ho

    ReplyDelete
  7. 今次真係幫你唔落

    以"strong buy/ sell" call 來說, 3幾個巴仙肯定不算是甚麼值得慶祝的升跌幅罷?

    還是白銀比較有信心。

    ReplyDelete
  8. The only way that can free 13's 3G is to work with the content providers like Google, yahoo and MSN, even the Chinese ones! It could be making 3G readable.

    It will be good that 13 to do a big write off on 3G immediately.
    So it can be sold to such real giants as mentioned above.

    I think a new game have been kicked off...

    ReplyDelete
  9. 乜和黃真係想俾心機做好3G業務、實牙實齒地以真材料好服務黎吸引大眾使用從而賺取利潤嗎?

    ReplyDelete
  10. 經濟學巨人,新經濟學巨人,是同一個人,我經常在entfun.com中唱下你,引用下你的名句,因為我怕你的blog會摺埋,到時冇哂資料,backup一下啫!

    ReplyDelete
  11. "Hutchison is higher than when I suggested to buy"

    So 阿Q. Relative to the index, Hutch has been a huge underperformer since your recommendation. It is a hard fact...still u r trying to twist it...this reflects how childish u r...

    If you can't take any critisim, just close your blog. Or simply do not accept any comments.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Carla,

    X-Series (at least in UK, Italy and Australia is the real deal).

    Shuen

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hey 經濟學巨人,

    No matter what.

    I respect you. You use your real name.

    Shuen
    PS you do have umm... an interesting website.

    ReplyDelete
  14. 你的文章比起那些財經演員還好一點,起碼可以給大家帶來一種話題和快樂,take that easy。

    ReplyDelete
  15. To pakman

    你應該撤銷 "撤銷一注獨嬴買和黃"..哈哈

    因為和黃最喜歡賣電訊業資產去賺錢
    賣完佢地又會整過間...
    佢地會不斷發展34567G...

    ReplyDelete
  16. 剛剛發現有一則討論好爆笑,即刻想起當年支持3的粉絲~~~"一注獨贏和黃"。
    《我終於明白點解 3 成日話賺唔到 $ 啦~》

    『師兄, 你交四毫子已經好好啦!
    我當日轉台走, 佢出張尾單, 叫我交0.05呀!

    我咪打去CS問佢係咪唔駛理囉
    佢話:低過$1我地唔收嫁啦, 你可以唔理

    兩個月後, 收到第二封信, 又係追0.05!
    咁我又唔理佢啦

    又過左兩個月, 佢竟然寄左封"最後通知"黎
    話我欠左佢0.05, 如果係限期前唔交就會交俾收數公司
    嘩, 玩到咁大呀! 一陣爭你0.05變左爭5000咪仆街?

    再打去CS問佢玩乜, 佢又係果句: 系統出錯O者, 唔駛理嫁!
    我怕左佢, 拎住張單去左佢銅鑼灣門巿, 同佢講交錢

    佢話: 交錢要去WATSONS喎
    我話: 人地唔肯收我錢喎!
    佢話: 無理由嫁喎!
    我好大聲咁話: 係呀, 我俾你地追左我半年, 要我交返五仙, 我俾一毫佢佢話無五仙找俾我喎!

    所有人望住我地兩個, 佢就講: 不如你俾一毫啦!
    我又好大聲咁講: 唔得! 我爭你五仙你地都追咁耐唔肯蝕俾我, 我又唔鍾意蝕俾你呀!
    咁佢話要諗諗, 又問我有冇支票, 我話無喎
    結果...佢地諗左個好正既方法......碌咭!

    我咁大個仔, 第一次碌咭碌五仙!
    我碌完咭無耐, CARD CENTER打黎問係咪有野攪錯左
    我話:無錯呀, 我真係碌左五仙呀!

    當日我俾返張收條D同事睇, 笑到所有人肚痛.......
    佢為左追我五仙, 用左三封信, 郵費... 加加埋埋都五蚊啦
    再加埋碌咭D手續費(聽講最少收5.00)......

    真係白痴.......超低能.........』

    http://www11.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=5249814&extra=page%3D4

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete