Tuesday, August 21, 2007

淡友食「神風」  有甚麼好做?

去到噚日中午收市,孫柏文覺得今個禮拜嘅股市,將會同上個禮拜一模一樣(見圖)。 噚日開市同上個禮拜一模一樣,受到對上嘅禮拜五聯儲局出手影響,裂口高開,跟住橫行。如無意外,橫行應該繼續到下午收市。

歐洲同花旗國嘅禮拜一股市,就會因為消化聯儲局出手消息,一樣都係橫行。繼而令特區股市喺禮拜二繼續橫行。

不過,到歐洲同花旗國嘅禮拜二,就會因為再有金融機構出事消息傳出,令佢哋跌到 一仆一碌。跟住特區股市就會喺禮拜三裂口低開,跌勢亦會持續到禮拜四,同至少禮拜五上午。

當然,絕不能排除喺花旗國禮拜四晚上時分,即特區禮拜五上午,聯儲局嚟次秘密會議,到禮拜五下午,就有啲番鬼佬大行進行「春江鴨」活動,見貨就掃。

大陸散戶會買乜?

作為一個淡友,就算上禮 拜五出現《大時代》奇迹日,全個禮拜都係跌好多。所以如果今個禮拜翻版,淡友絕對收貨。

最弊,呢個「戰狼300」式淡友圍攻好友嘅計劃,就好似當年戰無不 勝嘅蒙古軍,東征日本時,遇上日本人所稱嘅Kamikaze「神風」!淡友被殺個措手不及,屍橫遍野。

呢個從北方吹嚟嘅「神風」,就係中央政府完全放寬散 戶來港交所投資,即「炒股自由行」。相信好多人都講,同分析買乜好,我當然都有推介。首先,大家要記得呢次係大陸散戶來港,佢哋買一隻股嘅理由可能好奇 怪,原因可能炒股年資少或者訊息被封殺,今日就試吓role play。

滙豐唔係必掃貨

講受歡迎先。

,應該好,因無風險不歡,輪商發達。
長實和黃,因李嘉誠。
中石油中移動,因大陸冇得買。

再講唔受歡迎嘅股票。
滙豐,冇辦法,年資更淺,訊息更少嘅大陸散戶,都一定聽過「次按」呢兩個字。
孫柏文死撐?Yes,unfortunately。

最後,我最希望見到啲特區投資銀行,快快手搞個實貨白銀ETF喺港交所上市。如果你哋唔搞,白銀戰隊搞!

9 comments:

  1. Dear Pakman,
    I am one of your fans in AppleDaily but this is the first time I visit your blog, just because I want to setup one in blogger.
    I am commenting not on your articles (there is nothing to comment, most of the time I agree with you, your aggressive attitude) but your blog layout with black background which made reading a bit difficult, difficult to read on. The text/bg combination in your printed column today is excellent, will you consider some tunning, please.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Pakman,

    I predict that the policy introduced by the Chinese government will not have influence on the HK stock market.

    Assuming that all of the gamblers has already placed their bet in the mainland A share markets, they have to withdraw money from the A share markets to play in the Hong Kong market.

    Imagine the following scenarios.
    1) Not many gamblers withdraw money to invest in the Hong Kong market. If this is the case, it's clear that Hong Kong markets won't receive much support.

    2) A lot of gamblers withdraw money to invest in the Hong Kong market. If this is the case, the Chinese government will immediately shut the program down, because the mainland Share A markets will collapse.

    3) In between. Gamblers move their money to Hong Kong gradually. It will take a long time to feel the effect in Hong Kong. And don't forget that China will be seriously affected if the US goes into recession in 2008. So why is the HK stock market pricing in this event like an idiot?

    Assumptions made above:
    1) Money mainly withdrawn from the China stock markets to the Hong Kong one.

    2) The Chinese government prefers to save the A share markets more than the Hong Kong market.

    3) The US goes into recession in 2008, and China will be too busy to take care of itself.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Supplementary information

    Market capitalization (on 31 July 2007):

    HK Stock Exchange: HK$17,268,922.86 mil

    Shenzhen Stock Exchange (A share): RMB4,838,996.49 mil

    Shanghai Stock Exchange (A share):
    RMB15,255,472.67 mil

    ReplyDelete
  4. Pak Man

    有冇攪錯,D銀跌超過10%,加上買銀一定有leverage,你隻白銀戰艦有乜理由仲未沉呀,點可能仲有銀用?

    你估你隻係「長江一號」,死一個「長江一號」,仲有千千萬萬個「長江一號」咩?

    ReplyDelete
  5. 好不幸地,我今日剛剛加入白銀戰隊,就被編入蟹兵縱隊.

    不過世事無常,有賭未為輸,謹以大時代其中一段經典場口嘅"八字真言"以饗各同袍.
    共勉之!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkyPQTGoRAY

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yo Pineapple,

    Let me round up my current recommendations...

    Silver and gold still has not done the jump from being a "speculative" asset into a "safe harbour".

    Therefore it is getting whakced like everybody else.

    But as more and more ppl realise that the Central Banks will liquify its way out of trouble.

    Those metals will soar. We are pretty much one big German Bank crisis away from a boom in price.

    13 Hutch. Tmr is results... We'll see whether 3 is saved and whether they were "smart" enough to do quant trades.

    358 Jiangxi copper is doing well. Results come out 28th... we'll see whether they have done some stupid hedging again.

    5 HSBC... Well you all know how I stand on that.

    ReplyDelete
  7. 大陸人只會選中資, 因為佢地知佢地有資訊優勢, 買港資起碼已輸左5%RMB appreciation, 這些對他們是真金白銀, 因匯錢回國一定會輸.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Pakman and Pulp,

    Could you please kindly help to know where and how I could join the 白銀戰隊 in Hong Kong, thanks

    ReplyDelete
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