When there is a financial crisis in Europe and American, it is all "Save them! Save them! Or else there will be SYSTEMIC RISKS!!!"
When there is a financial crisis in Asia and Mexico, it is all "Let them die, Let them die, Or else there will be MORAL HAZARD!!!"
Hypocrites.
Hypocrites imbued with hubris.
This is Vengeance...
This is Vengeance...
I think the following is more stunning.
ReplyDeletewww.cnbc.com/id/20213352/for/cnbc/
Pay attention to this. "The Fed said all of the collateral accepted in the 3-day repos on Friday was mortgage-backed debt."
Wow! mortgage-backed debt can serve as collateral. My goodness! Let me rush to Bear Stearns and get some. See if Fed is gonna do this kind of repo with me.
Two days ago, the Fed statement didn't mention about a word of subprime, so the world think that is fine.....
ReplyDeleteUntil the ECB inject 95B first, then people sense a total different picture, may the central banks really realize what they face now.
mortgage-backed debt doesnt necessarily mean subprime, you just dont know what grade of MBS it accepts.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, but take a look at this.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ.cxsJa71xg
"The Fed typically only accepts so-called agency mortgage- backed securities, such as those guaranteed by government- chartered Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, rather than non-agency home- loan bonds from other financial institutions. Issuance and trading of non-agency bonds, including securities backed by subprime mortgages, has ground to a near-halt the past month."
And this
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/10/business/fed-wires.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1
"The Fed accepted all mortgage-backed debt as collateral for this morning's repurchase agreement."
Something interesting here.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ay1Ry.YsHsDw&refer=asia
"U.S. Urges China to Buy Mortgage Securities Amid Subprime Woes"
Well, they're talking about government-backed mortgage here, but the smell isn't right.
哪，分析員，這些才叫全面及整體的分析，學吓野啦，你仲未入流，儒家的升堂入室，你門檻都唔到丫．
ReplyDelete銀行做咁多生意...
對美國影響不大,對美國銀行影響不大...
口左按竭...透過包裝投資銀行再賣出去...
包裝成好好聲...有抵押債券...呢d好似債券...又有抵押...
賣俾保險...對沖基金(神經刀)...普通基金...
佢地貪個息高6,7厘...貪息高...
對沖...拋空國庫...買呢d...
出事時...全世界都拎晒野...中國,德國,歐州,法國...風險全球化...分散晒
衰對沖基金多...對大機構都可能有影響...但並不是太大...
最大問題...家下d垃圾債券無人要...攪到好多債券都無人要...企業債券都可能無人要...將息差拉得好闊...家下次按影響基金...基金驚贖回唔敢買...企業債券同國庫債券息差由200點子...抽高至400點子...then全世界d企業走番去問銀行借...
所有企業去銀行借錢...銀行身兼兩職...所以...歐央行...聯邦...好醒目...
唔減息...一齊注資...個問題解決一大部份...
家下d客戶...可以由資金周轉...家下銀行大晒...佢最多錢...個息口由佢決定...haha
暫時的注資...待市場信心穩定...債市就可以好番少少...
家下對沖基金俾人斬倉...好似BNP...果三隻...舊年油價大跌..有一間對沖一晚輸50億...又係唔準贖回...神經刀的錢..係有錢佬的錢...林大師最開心...呢d仆街輸死佢(呢句我加ge)...家下去到普通基金...好多都會持有債券...就算佢持其他債券...整個市場都無人要住...佢地就怕唔夠流動性...所以掉左d股票...佢地會掉左d垃圾股先...再掉大藍籌...再去外幣利差交易...咁咪好事囉...d傻佬走晒貨...家下接貨...都係長渣的...keke
次級按竭...唔係全部都無錢供...優質按竭出事...先睇股災丫...
勞工市場失業4.7%...仲係好低...無大規模失業...
美國服務業好大...香港...只得地產和股票...美國好廣範...
無野做的人去耕田都得...美國人流動性好強...坐飛機周圍走...
林大池樂觀左...因次按去到基金層面...可以睇到油價資源價都跌...係好的訊息...
央行用注質...都係放鬆銀根...係打針...唔係食藥(減息)...
林sir最怕油升...商品升...令到要加息...跟住殺傷力無窮...
今日插左第四隻腳...可以買野lu...但要買好公司喎...
一萬億次按...實際上...可能1-2%係壞帳...加下係呢個地球村分散晒la...
如果星期一跌落...可以分批買入...去到個個都好驚時...就搵林sir...
一個二個都好驚...902係講座講過...媒電未妥協...不贊成買入...
買5仔...現金最多...今次事件最有利...
3-day repos from the fed.
ReplyDelete4 day bridge loans from the ECB.
That means, within that time period, the banks better sort out their balance sheets.
Which means they have to re value ALL of their bonds.
They will have to take a conservative approach. If they are as nonchalant as HSBC was on the 30th July and BNP was on the 1st of Aug... The death spiral will kick in.
Because paper money system is nothing but confidence and credibility.
If banks don't solve it in the next few days...
Confidence will evaporate.
Finally, on the appreciation of commodities... Their price rise will not lead to inflation. Their price rise is the result of inflation.
"Cost push" inflation is (one of) the biggest crock of Keynesian economics.
Hey 會計仔...
ReplyDeleteAlso, I agree that MBS does not equal to subprime.
But there are a lot of credit crunch right now because the entire mortgage securitization breakdown.
People with high income, down payment of 35% but applying for a Jumbo Loan are being turned down right now.
You might call that irrational. But imagine the buyer who is desperate to sell to avoid foreclosure and bankruptcy. Because of this crunch, just might be foreclosed.
And the death spiral continues...